Saratoga

[drib]

The Saratoga racing experience features tens of thousands of fans from all over the world packed elbow to elbow in sweat inducing summer weather. One could not think of a better petri dish to spread the corona virus. If one must run without crowds, why ever ship upstate? I think we must consider the strong possibility there will be no Toga this year.
I know there is some hope that warm summer weather will stop the virus, but the Saratoga summer climate seems close to today's Miami weather, and I see no signs of virus letup in southern Florida today.

[Marshall Bennett]

I'm surprised there's racing anywhere with live spectators. :confused:

[classhandicapper]

I think the best case scenario for warm weather is that it slows the infection rate down. It's not going to stop it. But if we do a lot to stop it on our own, the warm weather and higher humidity might give us an assist. There's a paper on that being reviewed now. I read that this morning.

[f2tornado]

Herd immunity will be in play by then. Wouldn't be surprised if half of NYC has this thing already.

[dilanesp]

Herd immunity will be in play by then. Wouldn't be surprised if half of NYC has this thing already.

Nobody actually knows if there's significant immunity yet., at all. It's possible you can get it twice.

As for Saratoga, I would bet on it not occurring. As OP says, it is silly to go up there to race without fans or under crowd restrictions. If there's going to be racing without fans at all, it can be done at BEL or AQU.

[therussmeister]

Nobody actually knows if there's significant immunity yet., at all. It's possible you can get it twice.

As for Saratoga, I would bet on it not occurring. As OP says, it is silly to go up there to race without fans or under crowd restrictions. If there's going to be racing without fans at all, it can be done at BEL or AQU.

Well, they're counting on immunity as they are starting to treat patients with blood plasma from cured patients under the hypothesis that it contains antibodies.

[drib]

Herd immunity will be in play by then. Wouldn't be surprised if half of NYC has this thing already.

If, as you suggest, by mid July, the virus will die out b/c of herd immunity, understand the consequences: herd immunity requires at least 50% of the population (more probably) to have been viral infected; that translates to at least 150 million americans. If the (hoped for) death rate is on the order of 1% (flu is 0.1%), we would see 1.5 million deaths within the next 4 months.....Perspective: Trump is amazed that regular flu can cause 30-70k deaths per year.

[f2tornado]

If, as you suggest, by mid July, the virus will die out b/c of herd immunity, understand the consequences: herd immunity requires at least 50% of the population (more probably) to have been viral infected; that translates to at least 150 million americans. If the (hoped for) death rate is on the order of 1% (flu is 0.1%), we would see 1.5 million deaths within the next 4 months.....Perspective: Trump is amazed that regular flu can cause 30-70k deaths per year.

There is one paper that suggests 50% of the UK (https://reaction.life/oxford-study-50-of-uk-population-may-be-infected-already/) may have already been infected. It's highly likely the rates in US are multiples ahead of confirmed cases as tests were and in some case still hard to come by. My guess is the domestic fatal rate will be far less than 1%. Right now it is 1.4% but that only takes into account confirmed cases... yet we know there are whiskey tango foxtrots like Rand Paul walking around with extremely mild cases. Research also suggests these bugs fade to some extent during the summer. Hopefully correct. If things are still so bad Saratoga can't open up in July then enjoy your 20% unemployment this summer.

[classhandicapper]

There is one paper that suggests 50% of the UK (https://reaction.life/oxford-study-50-of-uk-population-may-be-infected-already/) may have already been infected. It's highly likely the rates in US are multiples ahead of confirmed cases as tests were and in some case still hard to come by. My guess is the domestic fatal rate will be far less than 1%. Right now it is 1.4% but that only takes into account confirmed cases... yet we know there are whiskey tango foxtrots like Rand Paul walking around with extremely mild cases.

The official confirmed case number in the US is probably ridiculously low.

I've been tracking it for the US and NY while also looking at testing data hoping to see something positive in the trends, but I'm all but certain those numbers are bogus. The cases are probably way higher even if you make some adjustments for incubation period.

[castaway01]

The official confirmed case number in the US is probably ridiculously low.

I've been tracking it for the US and NY while also looking at testing data hoping to see something positive in the trends, but I'm all but certain those numbers are bogus. The cases are probably way higher even if you make some adjustments for incubation period.

Since NY is actually testing a lot of people, it's more likely that the rest of the country is closer to NY rates than they realize---at least the major cities.

New Orleans is going to be the next epicenter to become a disaster area.

Oh, this thread is about Saratoga. It's just way too early to say. We could be way past the peak by then, experiencing a resurgence, or be recovering from tens of millions of cases hitting the whole country. Just impossible to say because it depends on people having common sense.

[Redboard]

We will see what happens but, as I mentioned before in another thread, I would like to see it held at Saratoga, even without fans, if must be. Sure it might be easier to do it at BEL or AQU, but SAR gets a lot higher handle than those tracks. The financial impact that this shutdown is having on the sport is catastrophic. I for one would not even watch the races at BEL or AQU, it just wouldn't seem right, I can't explain why. There's a physiological aspect here. Watching the races being run at the SPA in the summer would give everyone the feeling that everything's going to be alright.

[dilanesp]

We will see what happens but, as I mentioned before in another thread, I would like to see it held at Saratoga, even without fans, if must be. Sure it might be easier to do it at BEL or AQU, but SAR gets a lot higher handle than those tracks. The financial impact that this shutdown is having on the sport is catastrophic. I for one would not even watch the races at BEL or AQU, it just wouldn't seem right, I can't explain why. There's a physiological aspect here. Watching the races being run at the SPA in the summer would give everyone the feeling that everything's going to be alright.

I don't think Saratoga's off-premises handle has anything to do with it being Saratoga. It has to do with the quality of the racing.

It would also impose a bunch of needless costs on horsemen and NYRA employees to move the operation up there with no spectators.

Finally, it could still be branded as Saratoga. We had Oak Tree at Santa Anita and Tanforan at Bay Meadows and Tropical Park at Calder. We could have Saratoga at Belmont.

[Redboard]

End of discussion, well, sort of:

https://saratogaliving.com/nyra-saratoga-race-course-open-july-16/

[dilanesp]

End of discussion, well, sort of:

https://saratogaliving.com/nyra-saratoga-race-course-open-july-16/

This is not only not definitive, but is highly irresponsible.

Decisions to reopen should not be being made until we are sure that it will be safe. Nobody at NYRA knows if it will be safe to open in July. Many estimates I am hearing are 4 months of distancing.

Making statements like this can create public resistance to social distancing. It could kill people. And NYRA is a public agency supposedly accountable to the NY state government.

Cuomo should call them and tell them to shut up.

[rastajenk]

Oh, come on. They can always change their minds. If people start making travel plans tomorrow for July or August, there's plenty of time between now and then to cancel. You are such a tool. :rolleyes:

[dilanesp]

Oh, come on. They can always change their minds. If people start making travel plans tomorrow for July or August, there's plenty of time between now and then to cancel. You are such a tool. :rolleyes:

This is a health emergency. And as I said, NYRA isn't Churchill- it is part of the government. They are doing things to try and promote their own bottom line when they should be following scrupulously what the Governor is doing.

I am not a tool. NYRA is run by some tools though.

[drib]

Three and a half months out, this stuff from NYRA means nothing. The funny thing is that racing, take away OP, SAR, Kee, and the few big event days, has become a studio sport, which can operate in a viral setting. Before deciding on a non-refundable Saratoga hotel room (or house rental), I would want to see how baseball and the NBA handle the next few months. Tell you what, in mid July, if these sports are not operating in front of crowded arenas, there will be no Saratoga.

[dilanesp]

Three and a half months out, this stuff from NYRA means nothing. The funny thing is that racing, take away OP, SAR, Kee, and the few big event days, has become a studio sport, which can operate in a viral setting. Before deciding on a non-refundable Saratoga hotel room (or house rental), I would want to see how baseball and the NBA handle the next few months. Tell you what, in mid July, if these sports are not operating in front of crowded arenas, there will be no Saratoga.

Correct.

[Elkchester Road]

Three and a half months out, this stuff from NYRA means nothing. The funny thing is that racing, take away OP, SAR, Kee, and the few big event days, has become a studio sport, which can operate in a viral setting. Before deciding on a non-refundable Saratoga hotel room (or house rental), I would want to see how baseball and the NBA handle the next few months. Tell you what, in mid July, if these sports are not operating in front of crowded arenas, there will be no Saratoga.

Drib, I agree with the last sentence of your post. If this pandemic is still going that strong at that time...Saratoga...will not race. And I absolutely hate saying that.

[king kong]

Saratoga is the cash cow and they will milk it to the last drop this summer.:rant:

[Tom]

If you can't have people attend, there is not parking $$, no admission $$, no food sales $$.

If casinos are not running, I assume Saratoga gets some thing from that? If so, that might be gone.

My bet is no toga this year.
Hope I'm wrong.

[king kong]

They could give out face masks on spinner sundays! The place is fairly empty on mon.wed.thurs.Be like Santa Anita open up the infield for xtra spacing.

[Suff]

My GOAT Saratoga Picture.



https://i.ibb.co/ypWL1jD/Peter-Bournios-JB-Dudley-Sully-Saratoga-Jocks-room.jpg (https://ibb.co/3vBtqZw)

[PaceAdvantage]

This is not only not definitive, but is highly irresponsible.

Decisions to reopen should not be being made until we are sure that it will be safe. Nobody at NYRA knows if it will be safe to open in July. Many estimates I am hearing are 4 months of distancing.

Making statements like this can create public resistance to social distancing. It could kill people. And NYRA is a public agency supposedly accountable to the NY state government.

Cuomo should call them and tell them to shut up.You have won this month's PA "DD" award...it was a landslide:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PcGwkyzmPmA

[Afleet]

If, as you suggest, by mid July, the virus will die out b/c of herd immunity, understand the consequences: herd immunity requires at least 50% of the population (more probably) to have been viral infected; that translates to at least 150 million americans. If the (hoped for) death rate is on the order of 1% (flu is 0.1%), we would see 1.5 million deaths within the next 4 months.....Perspective: Trump is amazed that regular flu can cause 30-70k deaths per year.

he's amazed that all those deaths wasn't newsworthy in the past

[Redboard]

If you can't have people attend, there is not parking $$, no admission $$, no food sales $$.

If casinos are not running, I assume Saratoga gets some thing from that? If so, that might be gone.

My bet is no toga this year.
Hope I'm wrong.

There's still the off-track handle which was a record $558 million last year. As Frank DiPascali said in The Wizard of Lies , "It ain't nothing."


https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/horseracing/2019/09/03/saratoga-race-course-sets-meet-record-for-handle/40066357/

[garyscpa]

My GOAT Saratoga Picture.



https://i.ibb.co/ypWL1jD/Peter-Bournios-JB-Dudley-Sully-Saratoga-Jocks-room.jpg (https://ibb.co/3vBtqZw)

Who are the skinny guys?

[dilanesp]

You have won this month's PA "DD" award...it was a landslide:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PcGwkyzmPmA

I accept. Cassandra was right, you know.

[PaceAdvantage]

Cassandra was right, you know.I laughed.

[drib]

There's still the off-track handle which was a record $558 million last year. As Frank DiPascali said in The Wizard of Lies , "It ain't nothing."


https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/horseracing/2019/09/03/saratoga-race-course-sets-meet-record-for-handle/40066357/

One of my points is that "studio racing" means that the Travers would draw just as much off track handle if run at Belmont with empty stands.

[drib]

The evidence is out there. Just yesterday Cuomo (no lover of NYRA btw) said that high death rate could go thru summer, if models correct https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/04/01/cuomo-new-york-has-no-chance-against-worst-case-coronavirus-scenarios/#57002ab44e05

Consider they just moved the Democratic convention from July to August. College football considering playing with empty stands in the fall, and, unfortunately, no evidence that watm summer weather stops the virus (look at South Florida and New Orleans). Does anyone think that Saratoga crowds will be allowed this summer????
Studio racing can use Belmont, and the only significant economic damage will be to the unfortunate town of Saratoga.

[RunForTheRoses]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLo-ylNPXyE

[thespaah]

The Saratoga racing experience features tens of thousands of fans from all over the world packed elbow to elbow in sweat inducing summer weather. One could not think of a better petri dish to spread the corona virus. If one must run without crowds, why ever ship upstate? I think we must consider the strong possibility there will be no Toga this year.
I know there is some hope that warm summer weather will stop the virus, but the Saratoga summer climate seems close to today's Miami weather, and I see no signs of virus letup in southern Florida today.
Here. Read this.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/how-does-cold-weather-impact-the-spread-survival-of-the-flu-virus/342182
Typically, communicable infectious viruses tend to lose potency in warmer weather.
Also, it is important to remember that we tend to spend much more time indoors during the clod months. That said, if one person in the household is infected with a viral disease, it can spread easily to others. Also, cold air is drier as it cannot hold as much moisture as warm air. Small objects tend to travel in the air much farther and for longer periods of time. That also assists in transmitting the virus.
Conversely, in warmer months, the temperatures and nice weather have us outdoors. We get more exercise. We get more Vitamin D which helps build our immune system. While outdoors we are not in such close proximity to others.
Read the scientific data in this article

[thespaah]

This is not only not definitive, but is highly irresponsible.

Decisions to reopen should not be being made until we are sure that it will be safe. Nobody at NYRA knows if it will be safe to open in July. Many estimates I am hearing are 4 months of distancing.

Making statements like this can create public resistance to social distancing. It could kill people. And NYRA is a public agency supposedly accountable to the NY state government.

Cuomo should call them and tell them to shut up.
I gotta tell ya, your language is alarmist.
You claim this schedule is "irresponsible"...You claim such a decision "can create public resistance to social distancing".
Now, I must ask. How is it that a decision( tentative per conditions) to run a race meeting as scheduled will cause people to resist recommendations?
Of course NYRA is looking at the situation. If the state government deems it prudent to run the meet as scheduled , it will. If not, it won't.
Such alarmist language only spreads depression and panic.
I have to say, I am quite weary of the doom and gloom types who seem to thrive on misery.

[dilanesp]

Here. Read this.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/how-does-cold-weather-impact-the-spread-survival-of-the-flu-virus/342182
Typically, communicable infectious viruses tend to lose potency in warmer weather.
Also, it is important to remember that we tend to spend much more time indoors during the clod months. That said, if one person in the household is infected with a viral disease, it can spread easily to others. Also, cold air is drier as it cannot hold as much moisture as warm air. Small objects tend to travel in the air much farther and for longer periods of time. That also assists in transmitting the virus.
Conversely, in warmer months, the temperatures and nice weather have us outdoors. We get more exercise. We get more Vitamin D which helps build our immune system. While outdoors we are not in such close proximity to others.
Read the scientific data in this article

The thing is, this one has already spread in some warm places (Florida, Brazil, New Orleans, parts of Asia). So nobody is sure that this will hold.

[The_Turf_Monster]

One of my points is that "studio racing" means that the Travers would draw just as much off track handle if run at Belmont with empty stands.

Off track handle numbers, particularly that coming from ADWs, is irrelevant on its own. On site handle's take stays in state to fund purses and the tracks themselves. Off track and ADW has a lot of hands in the cookie jar with a significantly smaller % of the takeout going to the track and its purse account. Running big racing days in front of an empty grandstand doesn't make a bit of sense

[dilanesp]

Off track handle numbers, particularly that coming from ADWs, is irrelevant on its own. On site handle's take stays in state to fund purses and the tracks themselves. Off track and ADW has a lot of hands in the cookie jar with a significantly smaller % of the takeout going to the track and its purse account. Running big racing days in front of an empty grandstand doesn't make a bit of sense

I agree with your point, although it's worth noting that this is obviously a solveable problem. If a decision was made to race for a long period of time before empty stands, these formulae could obviously be reworked.

[drib]

Off track handle numbers, particularly that coming from ADWs, is irrelevant on its own. On site handle's take stays in state to fund purses and the tracks themselves. Off track and ADW has a lot of hands in the cookie jar with a significantly smaller % of the takeout going to the track and its purse account. Running big racing days in front of an empty grandstand doesn't make a bit of sense

Tell that to OP, GP, and little Fonner that are currently running. Sure, in the normal dysfunctional world of racing (can u believe OP and GP manage to run some races simultaneously), on track $ mean much more, but there is no way crowds will be tolerated in July at Saratoga. Unlike some other sports, studio racing gives the sport a chance to survive.

[The_Turf_Monster]

Tell that to OP, GP, and little Fonner that are currently running. Sure, in the normal dysfunctional world of racing (can u believe OP and GP manage to run some races simultaneously), on track $ mean much more, but there is no way crowds will be tolerated in July at Saratoga. Unlike some other sports, studio racing gives the sport a chance to survive.

Studio racing works for a track like Fonner because they're running low level claimers, and Gulfstream and OP's purse accounts aren't funded by the live product as much as they were by casinos until just recently. Any track in America could put out a signal and run $5k claimers with little to no live handle and no slot subsidy - take Hawthorne for example. It doesn't make a bit of financial sense to run G1 stakes races in front of an empty track and only take in ADW handle, they'd simply be killing the purse account in expense of hurting the horsemen putting out the local product

[drib]

Studio racing works for a track like Fonner because they're running low level claimers, and Gulfstream and OP's purse accounts aren't funded by the live product as much as they were by casinos until just recently. Any track in America could put out a signal and run $5k claimers with little to no live handle and no slot subsidy - take Hawthorne for example. It doesn't make a bit of financial sense to run G1 stakes races in front of an empty track and only take in ADW handle, they'd simply be killing the purse account in expense of hurting the horsemen putting out the local product

What is your point? If a track can't have crowds, just don't run? Try telling that to GG and SA which would be running today, with no crowds, and no slot subsidy, if not forced to close.

[The_Turf_Monster]

What is your point? If a track can't have crowds, just don't run? Try telling that to GG and SA which would be running today, with no crowds, and no slot subsidy, if not forced to close.

Neither of which would be running for graded stakes purses today. The point is that no live handle (or handle by track-owned OTB's) means no graded stakes purses because it would cannibalize the daily purse structure while losing money on the race(s). There's no problem running for smaller purses if you're getting ADW and your track-owned OTB handle, plenty of tracks demonstrate that.

I don't think that 99% of horseplayers even understand the importance to his/her local product by betting on track. The game would be thriving if the ADW bettors would simply go on track to gamble on their local product - bigger purses, bigger foal crops, bigger field size, more race dates, etc

[Tom]

Most people do not WANT to go on track.
Without ADW's, the game would be seriously hurting.

[classhandicapper]

The thing is, this one has already spread in some warm places (Florida, Brazil, New Orleans, parts of Asia). So nobody is sure that this will hold.

My understanding is that it will continue to spread in warmer weather but the hope is the r0 drops a bit. About a week or so ago I read the summary of a paper that suggested evidence it would be less of a problem in warmer humid weather, but that paper wasn't peer reviewed yet. I haven't seen anything about it since and can't find the original article.

[drib]

Let's cut to the core. Saratoga only has meaning as a racing venue this summer if the big crowds are allowed. Unlike almost every other track in the USA, there would be zero reason to race there with no on track audience b/c the obvious money saving option is to stay downstate.
As I highlighted, there are already predictions that the deaths in NY will continue into July. Remember that upstate NY, with low viral #'s today, is predicted to hit peak a few weeks after NYC. I just see no way Cuomo will be allowing large crowds in Saratoga come mid July.

[king kong]

There is always the BOAT RACES at lake George if Toga cancels!

[drib]

The clues keep dropping. Today Trump (the man who was originally aiming for crowded Easter churches) has now told the various sports commissioner he hoped to have fans in the stands "in August or September"
https://www.si.com/college/tennessee/football/trump-report

Forget July @ Toga....and quite possibly the Ky Derby on the first Sat in Sept.

[Afleet]

I gotta tell ya, your language is alarmist.
You claim this schedule is "irresponsible"...You claim such a decision "can create public resistance to social distancing".
Now, I must ask. How is it that a decision( tentative per conditions) to run a race meeting as scheduled will cause people to resist recommendations?
Of course NYRA is looking at the situation. If the state government deems it prudent to run the meet as scheduled , it will. If not, it won't.
Such alarmist language only spreads depression and panic.
I have to say, I am quite weary of the doom and gloom types who seem to thrive on misery.

excellent post

[classhandicapper]

The clues keep dropping. Today Trump (the man who was originally aiming for crowded Easter churches) has now told the various sports commissioner he hoped to have fans in the stands "in August or September"
https://www.si.com/college/tennessee/football/trump-report

Forget July @ Toga....and quite possibly the Ky Derby on the first Sat in Sept.

5 minutes ago I read article suggesting the NBA is discussing the financial implications of cancelling the season. So they went from talking about returning in mid May to play and playing in empty arenas to working with the player's union on a possible cancellation of the season in just the last few weeks.

I'm tracking the virus data.

While there has been some slowdown the growth rate of new cases, we are still reporting larger increases in cases each day. So we are not even at the point where we are running in place yet. It's trailing data because of the incubation period (3-14 days) and it may party be because we are testing well of 100k per day now (so naturally we'll find more positives if we test more people), but I suspect Trump is being overly optimistic. I hope he's right.

[burnsy]

I’m not overly optimistic but it’s too soon to call. These thing’s can run a coarse and decrease. Still time. The thing that worries me is that warm temperatures don’t seem to stop it. Louisiana is going nuts right now. The lucky thing if one can call it that. This shit spreads fast. Way faster than they are ever willing to admit. That’s what was glossed over early. When you have cases of 1 person getting 700 people sick on a ship in days. And groups meeting once then many get sick within days. Just telling people to wear masks yesterday is a failure. You breathe you spread. That was pretty much proven weeks ago. With the fast spread rate it could go thru the population faster than people think. The one thing about keeping people in is you could have waves as soon as restrictions are lifted. Sucks ass summer....... I hope not then again, this thing is pretty vile. Noooooooo Spa. :confused:

[oughtoh]

It could also mean no Del Mar too. Who knows what is going to go on in Calif.

[dilanesp]

It could also mean no Del Mar too. Who knows what is going to go on in Calif.

My predictions:

No Saratoga.
Either no Derby or a Derby under extreme social distancing (no owners, extremely limited NBC presence).
Either no Del Mar or a Del Mar under extreme social distancing.
No Preakness (for lots of reasons- no time for it, idiotic Baltimore officials will try to insist it be run at Pimlico and not Laurel, social distancing measures).
No Breeder's Cup
No Major League Baseball
No resumption of 2020 NBA or NHL seasons
Either no college football or games without fans the first few weeks
No HS football in many places
No Vegas casinos and California poker until the mid-to-late fall
No MLS
Pro football will play a substantially shortened season.

Basically we are going to lose a year on this thing.

[classhandicapper]

My predictions:


No Breeder's Cup

Basically we are going to lose a year on this thing.

The Breeder's Cup is quite awhile away. They might be able to pull that one off with some limited attendance and smaller purses.

[drib]

It could also mean no Del Mar too. Who knows what is going to go on in Calif.

Given NYRA controls the major NY racetracks decisions about studio racing are fairly easy, but Del Mar and SA have different owners. Today's WSJ has an article
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-big-question-for-sports-when-will-you-feel-safe-around-20-000-strangers-again-11586084401
in which the California governor says he cannot see the 3 NFL state teams playing in front of fans come September. Safe to say there will be no people at Del Mar mid July opening day (if there is one). Considering that NY is getting hit much harder than California, I think that Cuomo will never allow July crowds at Saratoga.

[classhandicapper]

Given NYRA controls the major NY racetracks decisions about studio racing are fairly easy, but Del Mar and SA have different owners. Today's WSJ has an article
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-big-question-for-sports-when-will-you-feel-safe-around-20-000-strangers-again-11586084401
in which the California governor says he cannot see the 3 NFL state teams playing in front of fans come September. Safe to say there will be no people at Del Mar mid July opening day (if there is one). Considering that NY is getting hit much harder than California, I think that Cuomo will never allow July crowds at Saratoga.

One point on NY.

NY is getting hit much harder, but it's also several weeks ahead of most other states in the spread of the illness. If it follows the typical progression of other countries, that means NY will be among the first of the major city/states to see much slower daily growth of illnesses, declining new cases per day etc..

For example, the growth rate is already slowing in NY (flattening the curve) where some states are just starting to get to that heavy accelerated growth rate that NY experienced weeks ago.

August for Saratoga seems like a real stretch because so many people travel to Saratoga from other places, but I think it's less of a stretch than CA unless CA does an amazing job of containing the spread given what it learned from NY.

[drib]

One point on NY.

NY is getting hit much harder, but it's also several weeks ahead of most other states in the spread of the illness. If it follows the typical progression of other countries, that means NY will be among the first of the major city/states to see much slower daily growth of illnesses, declining new cases per day etc..

For example, the growth rate is already slowing in NY (flattening the curve) where some states are just starting to get to that heavy accelerated growth rate that NY experienced weeks ago.

August for Saratoga seems like a real stretch because so many people travel to Saratoga from other places, but I think it's less of a stretch than CA unless CA does an amazing job of containing the spread given what it learned from NY.

You are failing to distinguish the NY metropolitan area from upstate. Yes, NYC, Westchester, and Long Island are ahead, but upstate NY is weeks behind.

[Waquoit]

Enjoy racing now, my feeling is that it's all going to close soon. I was looking at the Oaklawn paddock between races yesterday. Just one afflicted person could afflict everyone as they are in such close quarters.

[classhandicapper]

You are failing to distinguish the NY metropolitan area from upstate. Yes, NYC, Westchester, and Long Island are ahead, but upstate NY is weeks behind.

True, but many (if not most) of the people that attend Saratoga come from the harder hit areas. It's quite possible that upstate will never be hit really hard on its own. It's the major cities with dense populations, public transportation, a lot of travel (especially overseas) that are going to get hit hardest. I'm hoping for the best for NY in terms of the timetable and hoping that other states have learned from our experience, but I could easily be wrong.

[Waquoit]

True, but many (if not most) of the people that attend Saratoga come from the harder hit areas.

That why MA shut down their pot stores. They don't want visitors from ever harder hit areas.

[dilanesp]

The Breeder's Cup is quite awhile away. They might be able to pull that one off with some limited attendance and smaller purses.

With so few prep races here and in Europe, it's hard to see how they could fill the fields.

[classhandicapper]

With so few prep races here and in Europe, it's hard to see how they could fill the fields.

The BC is in early November.

The horses need 1 prep race in late September or early October to make it. A LOT of positive things can happen between now and then to get a few prep races in around the country. That's a long time from now.

[dilanesp]

Enjoy racing now, my feeling is that it's all going to close soon. I was looking at the Oaklawn paddock between races yesterday. Just one afflicted person could afflict everyone as they are in such close quarters.

Oaklawn is not socially distancing to the extent it should.

[Redboard]

My predictions:

No Saratoga.
Either no Derby or a Derby under extreme social distancing (no owners, extremely limited NBC presence).
Either no Del Mar or a Del Mar under extreme social distancing.
No Preakness (for lots of reasons- no time for it, idiotic Baltimore officials will try to insist it be run at Pimlico and not Laurel, social distancing measures).
No Breeder's Cup
No Major League Baseball
No resumption of 2020 NBA or NHL seasons
Either no college football or games without fans the first few weeks
No HS football in many places
No Vegas casinos and California poker until the mid-to-late fall
No MLS
Pro football will play a substantially shortened season.

Basically we are going to lose a year on this thing.

You are in the lead for April's "DD" award.

[dilanesp]

You are in the lead for April's "DD" award.

I have been completely right so far.

[drib]

You are in the lead for April's "DD" award.

I started this thread with the focus on Saratoga, but, in just a few days, it is easy to now see that a mid July open is just not going to happen as so many clues appear. Here is the exact quote from the WSJ article: "California Gov. Gavin Newsom said on Saturday that he doesn’t believe his state’s three NFL teams will be playing in front of fans come September." Remember that California has 5 baseball teams, 4 NBA teams, and 3 NHL teams; never mind countless college FB teams; also consider that Caiifornia seems to be "flattening the curve" thus far with early, extreme measures. What will be the mindset of other states? Ironically, the southern states where football is a religion are now set up to experience delayed, later blasts of viral outbursts partly b/c they are among the slowest to enact extreme measures.
Horse racing, actually, figures to be one of the first sports to start up again, as long as there have no crowds.

[Redboard]

I don't think...….. We had Oak Tree at Santa Anita and Tanforan at Bay Meadows and Tropical Park at Calder. We could have Saratoga at Belmont.

I never bought that "Oak Tree at Santa Anita" label. I could see no difference between that and a regular Santa Anita meet — same connections same jockeys, same horses. What was I missing(besides different time of year)?

As I mentioned, if they try to run a summer Belmont meet I wouldn't bet it and probably wouldn't even turn it on. It might be cheaper to hold it there, but might not be safer. The Capital District has had a fraction of the cases than the NYC area. There would be plenty of hotel rooms available since the SPAC and track would be closed to the general public.

[dilanesp]

I never bought that "Oak Tree at Santa Anita" label. I could see no difference between that and a regular Santa Anita meet — same connections same jockeys, same horses. What was I missing(besides different time of year)?

As I mentioned, if they try to run a summer Belmont meet I wouldn't bet it and probably wouldn't even turn it on. It might be cheaper to hold it there, but might not be safer. The Capital District has had a fraction of the cases than the NYC area. There would be plenty of hotel rooms available since the SPAC and track would be closed to the general public.

Oak Tree's separation from SA became less and less visible over time. If you had gone in the 1970's or 1980's, you would have noticed it more. For instance, Oak Tree had its own announcer, Alan Buchdahl. And they had their own promotions and TV ads. Over time they sort of merged their brand ID with Santa Anita's, and then Stronach kicked them out.

At any rate if the pandemic is ongoing, bringing a bunch of people up from NYC to infect folks upstate is a nonstarter.

[Tom]

I have been completely right so far.


I plan to live forever.

So far, on schedule. :rolleyes:

[clicknow]

I was looking at the Oaklawn paddock between races yesterday. Just one afflicted person could afflict everyone as they are in such close quarters.
Oaklawn is not socially distancing to the extent it should.

Arkansas is the only southern state that does not have a stay at home order in any counties. There are only 5 states in the entire U.S. that have no stay at home order as of April 2nd:

https://www.fox16.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/84/2020/04/NBC-Stay-at-Home-Map-1.png


Guess we'll see how that works out.

[westernmassbob]

If Saratoga is able to run its 2020 season which I want to believe will happen it will probably be done so with many restrictions. Anyone entering the racetrack would need to be wearing a mask at all times. Is that even feasible?

[dilanesp]

If Saratoga is able to run its 2020 season which I want to believe will happen it will probably be done so with many restrictions. Anyone entering the racetrack would need to be wearing a mask at all times. Is that even feasible?

I suppose there's going to be a lot of mask wearing going forward (as there has been in Asia), but the issue here is distancing, not mask wearing.

[RunForTheRoses]

Might as Well, Might as Well:

https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/Saratoga-Springs-Holiday-Inn-opens-to-homeless-15184798.php

SARATOGA SPRINGS – Piggybacking on national concerns about how to deal with the homeless during the coronavirus pandemic, dozens living in the city's shelter will be moved into rooms at Broadway's Holiday Inn.

[drib]

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-08/california-coronavirus-trends

California, so far, has been doing very well fighting the virus. Here is a revealing statement from the head of Santa Clara county, where the virus first popped uo in the state: "Smith on Tuesday told that county’s Board of Supervisors that he did not expect there would be “any sports games until at least Thanksgiving, and we’d be lucky to have them by Thanksgiving. This is not something that’s going to be easy to do".....just another sign that, despite some recent happy talk, the future of any sports crowds is problematic for many months to come.

[westernmassbob]

[QUOTE=drib;2584451]https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-08/california-coronavirus-trends

California, so far, has been doing very well fighting the virus. Here is a revealing statement from the head of Santa Clara county, where the virus first popped uo in the state: "Smith on Tuesday told that county’s Board of Supervisors that he did not expect there would be “any sports games until at least Thanksgiving, and we’d be lucky to have them by Thanksgiving. This is not something that’s going to be easy to do".....just another sign that, despite some recent happy talk, the future of any sports crowds is problematic for many months to come.[/QUOTE

It will be interesting to see how and when sports crowds make a return. You have to believe that they won’t return to business as usual and many modifications will take place. It would make sense to severely limit capacity at first with staggered seating then gradually increase attendance. Wearing a face mask as much as possible during the event would also makes sense. You would think that any outdoor venues ( like Saratoga ) might be at an advantage to making this happen. IDK about the feasibility but Saratoga could cap attendance at let’s say 10k people per day and sell the tickets in advance. Spreading out that many people over the grounds of Toga screams social distancing. Regardless of what happens it’s an almost certainty that if Saratoga opens in July attendance will be significantly down. I know of 3 families that have already cancelled a weekly summer trip there in August.

[RStetson]

Weekly Saratoga tickets were supposed to go on sale today, but I've been unable to get any via the nyra portal I've used the past few years. Anyone hearing anything about weekly ticket sales? Thanks

[RunForTheRoses]

Weekly Saratoga tickets were supposed to go on sale today, but I've been unable to get any via the nyra portal I've used the past few years. Anyone hearing anything about weekly ticket sales? Thanks

It looks like you can call or email although I would not recommend doing so until we know there will be a meet.
https://www.nyra.com/saratoga/tickets/reserved-seating


Not sure if this has been posted but Oklahoma track opening is delayed:


https://www.nyra.com/saratoga/news/nyra-delays-opening-of-oklahoma-training-track-at-saratoga-race-course

[RunForTheRoses]

It looks like you can call or email although I would not recommend doing so until we know there will be a meet.
https://www.nyra.com/saratoga/tickets/reserved-seating


Not sure if this has been posted but Oklahoma track opening is delayed:


https://www.nyra.com/saratoga/news/nyra-delays-opening-of-oklahoma-training-track-at-saratoga-race-course

I just clicked on Chat and was told everything is on hold.

[dilanesp]

[QUOTE=drib;2584451]https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-08/california-coronavirus-trends

California, so far, has been doing very well fighting the virus. Here is a revealing statement from the head of Santa Clara county, where the virus first popped uo in the state: "Smith on Tuesday told that county’s Board of Supervisors that he did not expect there would be “any sports games until at least Thanksgiving, and we’d be lucky to have them by Thanksgiving. This is not something that’s going to be easy to do".....just another sign that, despite some recent happy talk, the future of any sports crowds is problematic for many months to come.[/QUOTE

It will be interesting to see how and when sports crowds make a return. You have to believe that they won’t return to business as usual and many modifications will take place. It would make sense to severely limit capacity at first with staggered seating then gradually increase attendance. Wearing a face mask as much as possible during the event would also makes sense. You would think that any outdoor venues ( like Saratoga ) might be at an advantage to making this happen. IDK about the feasibility but Saratoga could cap attendance at let’s say 10k people per day and sell the tickets in advance. Spreading out that many people over the grounds of Toga screams social distancing. Regardless of what happens it’s an almost certainty that if Saratoga opens in July attendance will be significantly down. I know of 3 families that have already cancelled a weekly summer trip there in August.

Saratoga is the WORST place for social distancing. It's very small and even 5,000 people would put lots of folks within six feet of each other. Also how are you going to handle betting lines?

[classhandicapper]

IMO, holding a meet in Saratoga without people at the track is more or less pointless. They could run the same races at Belmont without crowds and probably save a lot of money since no one is in the grandstand at Belmont most days anyway.

Cancelling the Saratoga meet would hit the town really hard, but I'm having a tough time picturing crowds at Saratoga unless NYC turns dramatically for the better in the next few weeks. Maybe instead of the their regular giveaways they can give away N95 masks with a NYRA logo.

[ReplayRandall]

It's 98 days until the start of Saratoga.....By Mid May, the reopening of businesses and measures to ensure the safest roll out possible, will be in place. I doubt with summer temps coming in a bit early this year, that we will a see a reoccurrence of CV....it will completely fade out until next flu season, right before the Election..:eek:.

[dilanesp]

It's 98 days until the start of Saratoga.....By Mid May, the reopening of businesses and measures to ensure the safest roll out possible, will be in place. I doubt with summer temps coming in a bit early this year, that we will a see a reoccurrence of CV....it will completely fade out until next flu season, right before the Election..:eek:.

You don't have a very good record handicapping the coronavirus so far, RR.

1. I don't doubt that there will be some slow reopening of businesses at some point in the near future, but (a) a lot of people aren't going to want to go out anyway, so it's not like it's going to be like the old times; and (b) large events and gatherings where people are close together, like Saratoga, are going to be the LAST thing to reopen. As someone upthread said, we're really looking at sometime in the fall for that.

2. There's no real evidence that coronavirus can't survive the heat. Indeed, some of the outbreaks have been in places like Florida where temperatures are higher.

3. Whether it "completely fades out" depends a lot on how long we can maintain social distancing. (It also depends on the development of a vaccine, but nobody seems to think that will happen quickly.) The quicker society decides "screw this" and stops distancing, the longer it will take to actually ride this out and rid ourselves of the virus.

I'd give 10 to 1 odds against Saratoga holding live races with spectators on its scheduled opening day.

[drib]

It's 98 days until the start of Saratoga.....By Mid May, the reopening of businesses and measures to ensure the safest roll out possible, will be in place. I doubt with summer temps coming in a bit early this year, that we will a see a reoccurrence of CV....it will completely fade out until next flu season, right before the Election..:eek:.

Sorry, but there is a ton of misinformation in this post. Assuming that warm summer temps will result in the virus "complete fade out" is wrong. Here is the latest from Fauci: https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavirus-warm-weather-fauci-virus-fade-not-assume Besides this, take a look at Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore, New Orleans, and Florida. Yes, hopefully we will see reopening of business next month, but the "measures to ensure the safest" will surely include separation which precludes jamming thousands of people in the Saratoga stands. We all hope the case and death rate drops big time by July, but Cuomo, fearing the second viral wave" will never allow those Toga gates to open.
I hope you are not one of those with nonrefundable payments to Saratoga hotels or private homes.

[ReplayRandall]

I'd give 10 to 1 odds against Saratoga holding live races with spectators on its scheduled opening day.Since you're so sure, I'll take 10-1 for $100....BTW, do owners count as spectators?...I think they do, so they'll fulfill "spectators" requirement for the bet.

[ReplayRandall]

Sorry, but there is a ton of misinformation in this post. Assuming that warm summer temps will result in the virus "complete fade out" is wrong. Here is the latest from Fauci: https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavirus-warm-weather-fauci-virus-fade-not-assume Besides this, take a look at Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore, New Orleans, and Florida. Yes, hopefully we will see reopening of business next month, but the "measures to ensure the safest" will surely include separation which precludes jamming thousands of people in the Saratoga stands.
I hope you are not one of those with nonrefundable payments to Saratoga hotels or private homes.Fauci is a fearmonger, I take everything he says with skepticism, his ties to Bill Gates tells me he's an expert BS Artist of the highest magnitude....

So much disinformation from all sides, at this point, all for control of the narrative and their own AGENDA....I'm nobody's fool, but I appreciate everyone's opinion, no matter how informed or to the contrary.

[drib]

Fauci is a fearmonger, I take everything he says with skepticism, his ties to Bill Gates tells me he's an expert BS Artist of the highest magnitude....

So much disinformation from all sides, at this point, all for control of the narrative and their own AGENDA....I'm nobody's fool, but I appreciate everyone's opinion, no matter how informed or to the contrary.


Look past Fauci (whose entire career is the total opposite of "disinformation"), Australia has had a big viral breakout coincidental with 2nd hottest summer ever:https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/02/summer-of-2019-20-second-hottest-australian-summer-on-record

[ReplayRandall]

Look past Fauci (whose entire career is the total opposite of "disinformation"), Australia has had a big viral breakout coincidental with 2nd hottest summer ever:https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/02/summer-of-2019-20-second-hottest-australian-summer-on-recordWe disagree..I've looked at much more than what you've suggested, but do keep them coming...just in case.

[dilanesp]

Since you're so sure, I'll take 10-1 for $100....BTW, do owners count as spectators?...I think they do, so they'll fulfill "spectators" requirement for the bet.

No, I mean spectators. General admission, not a few VIP's. Owners have a lot of power in this industry and I wouldn't put it past folks who run this sport letting them in.

[biggestal99]

Sorry, but there is a ton of misinformation in this post. Assuming that warm summer temps will result in the virus "complete fade out" is wrong. Here is the latest from Fauci: https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavirus-warm-weather-fauci-virus-fade-not-assume Besides this, take a look at Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore, New Orleans, and Florida. Yes, hopefully we will see reopening of business next month, but the "measures to ensure the safest" will surely include separation which precludes jamming thousands of people in the Saratoga stands. We all hope the case and death rate drops big time by July, but Cuomo, fearing the second viral wave" will never allow those Toga gates to open.
I hope you are not one of those with nonrefundable payments to Saratoga hotels or private homes.

Rebounding already in Hong Kong


https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-09/coronavirus-vaccine-asia-outbreak-covid-19

Allan

[rispa]

I would think that the people who live in Saratoga Springs would like to have a voice as to whether a meet is conducted with spectators. I find it hard to believe that NYRA would conduct racing in Saratoga without fans. Belmont Park seems to make more sense.

[classhandicapper]

Rebounding already in Hong Kong


https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-09/coronavirus-vaccine-asia-outbreak-covid-19

Allan

This did not make me happy. :puke:

[Redboard]

You don't have a very good record handicapping the coronavirus so far, RR.
….
2. There's no real evidence that coronavirus can't survive the heat. Indeed, some of the outbreaks have been in places like Florida where temperatures are higher.
…..

Being the third-most populated state, we’re doing pretty good at ninth in cases/deaths. With half of the state’s cases in Miami-dade or Broward counties, which includes big cities like Miami and Ft. Lauderdale.

[ReplayRandall]

No, I mean spectators. General admission, not a few VIP's. Owners have a lot of power in this industry and I wouldn't put it past folks who run this sport letting them in.Guess we don't have a bet then...

[dilanesp]

Guess we don't have a bet then...

Smart man.

[classhandicapper]

Being the third-most populated state, we’re doing pretty good at ninth in cases/deaths. With half of the state’s cases in Miami-dade or Broward counties, which includes big cities like Miami and Ft. Lauderdale.

The more I read and look at the data the more obvious my intuitive belief from the start seems correct. Public transportation (especially subways) are a critical part of the spread. No matter how big or populous the area, if most people are driving, it limits contact. If a lot people are squeezed into crowded subways and buses it's a major problem.

[drib]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/the-coronavirus-was-spreading-the-parties-went-on-now-comes-the-pain/2020/04/09/39bdbe1e-7908-11ea-a130-df573469f094_story.html?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most

This article may be behind a paywall, but the title says it all "The coronavirus was spreading. The parties went on. Now comes the pain." It has been possible to trace outbreaks of the virus to specific events/crowds. Here is a key quote:]

“I think what we’re seeing now in a lot of places are the consequences of some of those events,” said Harvard epidemiologist William Hanage. “Once you have a large gathering, you have an opportunity for a large number of infection chains to start off in one go.”

It is easy to see that, at some time in the next several weeks, the severe restrictions will be lifted. Businesses, factories, and lots of commerce will restart, but the last thing to be permitted will be crowds at sporting events. Forget about Toga in July, and I seriously doubt that we will see anyone in the stands or infield should they run the Ky Derby in Sept; in fact, I question whether any sporting event this year will; feature any kind of live audience.

[classhandicapper]

[url]
It is easy to see that, at some time in the next several weeks, the severe restrictions will be lifted. Businesses, factories, and lots of commerce will restart, but the last thing to be permitted will be crowds at sporting events. Forget about Toga in July, and I seriously doubt that we will see anyone in the stands or infield should they run the Ky Derby in Sept; in fact, I question whether any sporting event this year will; feature any kind of live audience.

Not that I'm an expert or believe all the data is accurate and comparable, but right now the data suggests in the last week or so we have flattened the curve.

However, we haven't even begun to see real improvement where the number of positive cases per day starts dropping. I don't see how we can open much until we make significant progress in terms of declining cases per day. Italy reached that point a few weeks ago and they just extended their lock down (which I think is more severe than ours).

I have looked at US data, NY State data, and NYC data.

The testing and case data is all trailing by a few days (and longer for ICU and deaths). So maybe things have begun to improve, but I don't see it yet. It would not shock me if when 4/30 comes Trump extends it another 2 weeks at least.

[Redboard]

For the health and safety of the employees, running at Saratoga this summer, rather than Belmont, makes more sense to me. Look at what MLB might be doing.

Major League Baseball is considering having all 30 teams play games at stadiums with no fans in the Phoenix area. Players, coaching staffs and other essential personnel would be sequestered at local hotels, where they would live in relative isolation and travel only to and from the stadium. Federal officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as well as the National Institutes of Health have been supportive of a plan that would adhere to strict isolation, promote social distancing and allow MLB to become the first professional sport to return.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29004498/mlb-union-focused-plan-allow-season-start-early-arizona


This is the model NYRA could use for Saratoga.

[drib]

For the health and safety of the employees, running at Saratoga this summer, rather than Belmont, makes more sense to me. Look at what MLB might be doing.

Major League Baseball is considering having all 30 teams play games at stadiums with no fans in the Phoenix area. Players, coaching staffs and other essential personnel would be sequestered at local hotels, where they would live in relative isolation and travel only to and from the stadium. Federal officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as well as the National Institutes of Health have been supportive of a plan that would adhere to strict isolation, promote social distancing and allow MLB to become the first professional sport to return.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29004498/mlb-union-focused-plan-allow-season-start-early-arizona


This is the model NYRA could use for Saratoga.

Genius plan for NYRA. Let's bring thousands of backstretch workers from Belmont (pretty much epicenter of the pandemic, with one worker dead) upstate to Saratoga, where the locals are struggling to avoid becoming a viral hotspot.....Gee wonder what could go wrong?.....I guess you also advocate big crowds on track (there would be zero reason to leave Belmont for studio racing) to really get things going.

[Tom]

Heard this morning that the Oklahoma Training Tracks at Toga is NOT opening as planned, if that is any kind of a signal (Down the Stretch Sirius/XM show).

[Saratoga_Mike]

Heard this morning that the Oklahoma Training Tracks at Toga is NOT opening as planned, if that is any kind of a signal (Down the Stretch Sirius/XM show).

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/opening-of-oklahoma-training-track-delayed-saratoga-meet-still-on-schedule/

[drib]

It is ironic that the most important factor in NYRA's future for this year (and maybe beyond) is not whether Saratoga opens or when racing resumes. The date that the Aqueduct casino reopens (to normal business) counts far more. Without those $, it all falls apart.....and it is not hard to foresee Cuomo going after those purse $ to help cover the huge budget deficits.....Travers purse heading back to $100k????

[Redboard]

Genius plan for NYRA. Let's bring thousands of backstretch workers from Belmont (pretty much epicenter of the pandemic, with one worker dead) upstate to Saratoga, where the locals are struggling to avoid becoming a viral hotspot.....Gee wonder what could go wrong?.....I guess you also advocate big crowds on track (there would be zero reason to leave Belmont for studio racing) to really get things going.

Like your genius plan for NYRA: Open up a nonessential business at pretty much the epicenter of the pandemic, where 1700 employees go home everyday(some taking public trans) to be with their families.

And no I didn't advocate crowds. Any meet this year, either at Belmont or Saratoga, will be in front of empty stands. And Saratoga Springs will have no say in the matter(as far as banning people entering their town). It will be up to the Governor.

[drib]

Like your genius plan for NYRA: Open up a nonessential business at pretty much the epicenter of the pandemic, where 1700 employees go home everyday(some taking public trans) to be with their families.

And no I didn't advocate crowds. Any meet this year, either at Belmont or Saratoga, will be in front of empty stands. And Saratoga Springs will have no say in the matter(as far as banning people entering their town). It will be up to the Governor.

More High IQ stuff....Those 1700 employees are at Belmont Park, taking care of the horses, every day right now. Gulfstream and Oaklawn have shown that it only requires, maybe, 50 extra people to put on races. If NYRA conducts studio racing it will be at Belmont or Aqueduct....never at Saratoga.

[westernmassbob]

I still think Saratoga has a glimmer of hope if they limit daily track attendance to 10k per day and sell entrance tickets in advance. Spreading out 10k fans over Saratoga’s picnic area and grandstands would make it look like a ghost town and social distancing should not be a problem. The betting lines would be spread out as well keeping a safe distance. The only way Saratoga reopens is with major ramifications including the track attendance. My thinking is NYRA needs to have a plan and or decision by middle of May for anything to be feasible for the summer. People make travel plans from all over the world coming into Toga and there is no way they will commit to anything up until the last minute. IMO. In any event someone I know who works in the tourism industry for Toga is projecting business overall to be down 40-50% including the Lake George area. That is with the track opening.

[dilanesp]

I still think Saratoga has a glimmer of hope if they limit daily track attendance to 10k per day and sell entrance tickets in advance. Spreading out 10k fans over Saratoga’s picnic area and grandstands would make it look like a ghost town and social distancing should not be a problem. The betting lines would be spread out as well keeping a safe distance.

I wouldn't buy this argument even at Santa Anita or Belmont Park, or some other suitably large facility, but no way can you do this at Saratoga.

Saratoga is NOT. THAT. LARGE. It has a relatively narrow apron. One level of seats (except in the CH and that new pavilion, and they aren't very large). And a relatively large picnic area behind the stands. That's it.

The betting windows are fixed. There's absolutely no room to reconfigure them (or the food stands) in the grandstand, and the windows out in the picnic area are in purpose-built buildings and are scrunched together. As are the food stands. There also aren't a lot of restrooms, and those are scrunched in as well.

10,000 people at Saratoga may not seem that much to a racing fan thinking of Travers day, but it's plenty enough to mean that people won't be 6 feet apart. And it's plenty enough to need at least a good percentage of the betting windows staffed, which would mean the lines would be close together.

If you want to talk about 2,000 people at Saratoga, maybe we can talk. Even then, they would need to grossly restrict who gets into the paddock or the winner's circle, etc. But 10,000 people in that facility would be a Petri Dish.

[Clocker]

People make travel plans from all over the world coming into Toga and there is no way they will commit to anything up until the last minute.
No matter how safe you make Saratoga appear, no one is going to get on a plane to go there.

[classhandicapper]

I've been to Saratoga so many years in a row I can't remember the last year I missed, but I've already written it off for this year. I can't imagine things are going to turn around far and fast enough to even have the meet. If I am wrong and they do, I'm not going. The virus is almost certainly going to be circulating in July/Aug even if everything goes well and it's at a very reduced level. There's no way I'm going to be part of even a reduced large crowd.

They should just run the meet at Belmont with no fans and be happy there's racing. They will still get a very good handle. It will take a miracle to get to the point where we have crowds in July.

[alhattab]

I wouldn't buy this argument even at Santa Anita or Belmont Park, or some other suitably large facility, but no way can you do this at Saratoga.

Saratoga is NOT. THAT. LARGE. It has a relatively narrow apron. One level of seats (except in the CH and that new pavilion, and they aren't very large). And a relatively large picnic area behind the stands. That's it.

The betting windows are fixed. There's absolutely no room to reconfigure them (or the food stands) in the grandstand, and the windows out in the picnic area are in purpose-built buildings and are scrunched together. As are the food stands. There also aren't a lot of restrooms, and those are scrunched in as well.

10,000 people at Saratoga may not seem that much to a racing fan thinking of Travers day, but it's plenty enough to mean that people won't be 6 feet apart. And it's plenty enough to need at least a good percentage of the betting windows staffed, which would mean the lines would be close together.

If you want to talk about 2,000 people at Saratoga, maybe we can talk. Even then, they would need to grossly restrict who gets into the paddock or the winner's circle, etc. But 10,000 people in that facility would be a Petri Dish.

Maybe require masks (could get awfully hot!) or use this as an oppty to get more people to sign up for NYRA Bets- not allowed to stand in line to bet must use NYRA Bets or a daily account (for us NJ folk who aren't permitted to use NYRA Bets).

I think at Monmouth for the Haskell this year they should give away face masks instead of a hat.

[dilanesp]

https://www.si.com/.amp/mlb/2020/04/10/sports-arent-coming-back-soon?__twitter_impression=true

[castaway01]

I've been to Saratoga so many years in a row I can't remember the last year I missed, but I've already written it off for this year. I can't imagine things are going to turn around far and fast enough to even have the meet. If I am wrong and they do, I'm not going. The virus is almost certainly going to be circulating in July/Aug even if everything goes well and it's at a very reduced level. There's no way I'm going to be part of even a reduced large crowd.

They should just run the meet at Belmont with no fans and be happy there's racing. They will still get a very good handle. It will take a miracle to get to the point where we have crowds in July.

I think your post makes a ton of sense, though I'm not sure running at Saratoga wouldn't be safer than Belmont. But I still think there are people who will want to go to Saratoga because that's what they do and they love it there. Personally, my son is supposed to play at Cooperstown this summer in a baseball tournament. You'd be amazed at the number of people around the country (not so much here in NJ where we're facing some serious issues with the virus) that still want to fly in to play and just spend a week with people from around the country. It's just kids' baseball with nothing at stake, yet they had this planned and they want it to be, so it has to take place or they're hurt. As we've learned in this crisis, people have a ton of trouble viewing things from anything but their own perspectives.

[classhandicapper]

I think your post makes a ton of sense, though I'm not sure running at Saratoga wouldn't be safer than Belmont.

I was mostly thinking about the cost of moving all the horses and people that care for them from Belmont and Aqueduct to Saratoga just to run without fans. That makes no sense to me.

[Redboard]

https://www.si.com/.amp/mlb/2020/04/10/sports-arent-coming-back-soon?__twitter_impression=true

Looking at the MLB plan, if they limited it to people under 50 including, umpires, bus drivers, doctors, maintenance people, as well as players; and testing every day and sending home anybody positive, I think it would be 99.9% safe, but if something goes wrong, such as a whole team becoming infected and a player dying (gulp), I could see the lawyers having a field day.

[Redboard]

My Airbnb cancelled on me. She said she was looking for a long-term rental, and didn't want different people going in and out of her house too often. Can't blame her.

[Waquoit]

If I lived near Fonner, I'm sure I would attend often and have a good time. Like when the Northampton Fair was still running. But I wouldn't go betting what I consider real money.

[dilanesp]

I was mostly thinking about the cost of moving all the horses and people that care for them from Belmont and Aqueduct to Saratoga just to run without fans. That makes no sense to me.

Also, we want people who are in cities to stay in cities. There have already been cases of rich people leaving big cities and bringing the virus to smaller communities where they have second homes. Michigan's governor has even gone so far as to ban this.

You don't want to potentially transport the virus up to upstate NY.

[alhattab]

Looking at the MLB plan, if they limited it to people under 50 including, umpires, bus drivers, doctors, maintenance people, as well as players; and testing every day and sending home anybody positive, I think it would be 99.9% safe, but if something goes wrong, such as a whole team becoming infected and a player dying (gulp), I could see the lawyers having a field day.

I follow hockey and the NY Post columnist Larry Brooks also brought up point of the negative optic/backlash of all these people being tested so we could have sporting events while sick people are awaiting or cannot access a test. Hopefully that is a short-term issue but it would be a bad optic at this stage.

[PaceAdvantage]

The X factor in all of this isn't the virus.

It's actually never been about the virus.

It's about the FEAR that has been injected into every living, breathing soul's body on this planet over a virus that, thus far, has killed in 3+ months of official recorded history, about 500,000 FEWER people worldwide than the common flu does annually.

Common sense tells you the virus has been around for longer than 3+ months.

Speaking of common sense, if we actually had any, racing in front of a packed crowd would be a given come August at Saratoga and every other racetrack.

But, apparently, a global population immersed in a constant state of fear and panic is something the powers that be won't let go of easily or anytime soon.

There's still a chance. As the days and weeks unfold from here on out, as it becomes crystal clear that the dire projections (on which all these closures happened in the first place) continue to be ridiculously OFF THE MARK, perhaps the people will rebel and put this miserable little piece of human history behind them and never speak of it again.

Fat chance of that happening though...but I can still hold out hope.

[dilanesp]

So far, PA, the scientists' predictions have been right and yours have been wrong.

I will continue to go with the scientists.

I do believe that Gulfstream's procedures are pretty good, so if tracks can adhere to them and race, that would be wonderful for bettors and horsemen. But it would be crazy to treat this as a panic over nothing and go back to big crowds. That sort of thinking will get a lot of people killed.

[classhandicapper]

The X factor in all of this isn't the virus.

It's actually never been about the virus of the virus.

It's about the FEAR that has been injected into every living, breathing soul's body on this planet over a virus that, thus far, has killed in 3+ months of official recorded history, about 500,000 FEWER people worldwide than the common flu does annually.

Common sense tells you the virus has been around for longer than 3+ months.

Speaking of common sense, if we actually had any, racing in front of a packed crowd would be a given come August at Saratoga and every other racetrack.

But, apparently, a global population immersed in a constant state of fear and panic is something the powers that be won't let go of easily or anytime soon.

There's still a chance. As the days and weeks unfold from here on out, as it becomes crystal clear that the dire projections (on which all these closures happened in the first place) continue to be ridiculously OFF THE MARK, perhaps the people will rebel and put this miserable little piece of human history behind them and never speak of it again.

Fat chance of that happening though...but I can still hold out hope.

Here's the small monkey wrench in your analysis.

We've gone to extraordinary lengths to slow the spread of the virus. That's something we never do for the flu. So you can't compare the results.

Without doing all that, what would the case numbers and death totals be?

My guess is both would be WAY higher!

That's not to say that the media hasn't been playing up the fear factor like they do with hurricanes and everything else or that the models on which some of the worst projections were made were perfect. Even with closing everything down and social distancing taken into account the models wildly overestimated the deaths. However, I think part of the "fear factor" was an effort to get people to listen. If people weren't afraid they'd still be running around drinking and partying and the results would be worse.

I think the reality is that this is a much worse situation than the flu, but maybe not quite as bad as the worst fears.

[PaceAdvantage]

So far, PA, the scientists' predictions have been right and yours have been wrong.Actually, they haven't.

Their models were way off. Predicting far more deaths than we are seeing...and those models had social distancing BAKED INTO THEM.

So you are, once again, incorrect.

[PaceAdvantage]

Here's the small monkey wrench in your analysis.

We've gone to extraordinary lengths to slow the spread of the virus. That's something we never do for the flu. So you can't compare the results.

Without doing all that, what would the case numbers and death totals be?

My guess is both would be WAY higher!

That's not to say that the media hasn't been playing up the fear factor like they do with hurricanes and everything else or that the models on which some of the worst projections were made were perfect. Even with closing everything down and social distancing taken into account the models wildly overestimated the deaths. However, I think part of the "fear factor" was an effort to get people to listen. If people weren't afraid they'd still be running around drinking and partying and the results would be worse.

I think the reality is that this is a much worse situation than the flu, but maybe not quite as bad as the worst fears.I never said this was the flu.

Never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever.

I never said we should have done NOTHING.

Never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever.

Not here. Not on off-topic.

Flu stats are the only thing comparable, however, which is why I use them for illustrative purposes.

[dilanesp]

Actually, they haven't.

Their models were way off. Predicting far more deaths than we are seeing...and those models had social distancing BAKED INTO THEM.

So you are, once again, incorrect.

What do you mean? The models predicted 100,000 to 200,000 deaths with social distancing, 1 to 2 million without. We're going to get about 60,000 to 70,000. So the models got the right order of magnitude and came in just a little bit high on the death count.

As for your last comment, I'm getting really sick of being told how wrong I always am around here. I have been absolutely right, from the start, about this virus and its effect on horse racing. I was the first to even post about it, and from the very beginning, certain posters poo-poohed the whole thing. My predictions have been born out.

If I had bet money on my posts, I would be solidly in the black now. I have better things to do than dig up your posts on this, but suffice to say, you have been understating this whole thing since Day 1.

[PaceAdvantage]

The models that the economic shutdown was based on were not nearly that conservative in their numbers.

[Redboard]

Also, we want people who are in cities to stay in cities. There have already been cases of rich people leaving big cities and bringing the virus to smaller communities where they have second homes. Michigan's governor has even gone so far as to ban this.

You don't want to potentially transport the virus up to upstate NY.

It depends on the situation IMO. If you own a vacation home upstate, and if you are driving your own car and plan to 14-day quarantine when you arrive, I don't see a problem. Especially in the same state.

Here in Florida, the governor mandated that anyone entering Florida from another state that was deemed an epicenter, such as NJ or NY or Louisiana, must self-quarantine for 14 days. Florida has been stopping cars with those license plates as well as monitoring the airports.

[PaceAdvantage]

The models that the economic shutdown was based on were not nearly that conservative in their numbers.One last thing. Early on in this whole ordeal (early March), you know what kind of numbers they were dishing out?

If we were to "ride it out" and not do anything (which I never advocated BTW), they were projecting 2.2 MILLION Americans could die from this disease.

Based on the current numbers we see here and worldwide, do you actually think, even if we did NOTHING, that 2.2 MILLION people would die from this virus?

Those are the kinds of numbers and flawed models I'm talking about.

[cj]

One last thing. Early on in this whole ordeal (early March), you know what kind of numbers they were dishing out?

If we were to "ride it out" and not do anything (which I never advocated BTW), they were projecting 2.2 MILLION Americans could die from this disease.

Based on the current numbers we see here and worldwide, do you actually think, even if we did NOTHING, that 2.2 MILLION people would die from this virus?

Those are the kinds of numbers and flawed models I'm talking about.

It is likely it would be pretty high because hospitals wouldn't be able to keep up. An exact number I have no idea. We'd have people dying not from complications of the disease, but lack of equipment and medical care. That is really the biggest reason to shut it down like we have, the lack of facilities and equipment.

[PaceAdvantage]

That is really the biggest reason to shut it down like we have, the lack of facilities and equipment.Well I hope we elect people who have this as their top priority then...at least when it comes to the public hospitals.

[castaway01]

It is likely it would be pretty high because hospitals wouldn't be able to keep up. An exact number I have no idea. We'd have people dying not from complications of the disease, but lack of equipment and medical care. That is really the biggest reason to shut it down like we have, the lack of facilities and equipment.

If we had 10 cities break out like NYC has, it might not have reached 2.2 million but it could easily have overwhelmed a dozen hospitals the way theirs have been. The fact is, we'll never know how bad it could have gotten without social distancing for weeks. We'd only know if we did too little, not too much.

I'm actually agreeing with you but I think I replied to the wrong post.

[drib]

The X factor in all of this isn't the virus.

It's actually never been about the virus.

It's about the FEAR that has been injected into every living, breathing soul's body on this planet over a virus that, thus far, has killed in 3+ months of official recorded history, about 500,000 FEWER people worldwide than the common flu does annually.

Common sense tells you the virus has been around for longer than 3+ months.

Speaking of common sense, if we actually had any, racing in front of a packed crowd would be a given come August at Saratoga and every other racetrack.

But, apparently, a global population immersed in a constant state of fear and panic is something the powers that be won't let go of easily or anytime soon.

There's still a chance. As the days and weeks unfold from here on out, as it becomes crystal clear that the dire projections (on which all these closures happened in the first place) continue to be ridiculously OFF THE MARK, perhaps the people will rebel and put this miserable little piece of human history behind them and never speak of it again.

Fat chance of that happening though...but I can still hold out hope.

The scientific inaccuracy of this post is crazy. You use the relatively low # of deaths so far to say that the danger is not the virus, but just fear. You don't seem to understand how exponential pandemic viral growth works. Less than 2 months ago, there were zero deaths in the USA; now we are closing on 30k. You use this still low # (compared to umpteen different scourges) to minimize models, and the viral threat. The big thing you are ignoring is the extreme measures taken (closing down most of nation), which has never been done before in world history. It is these measures that have temporarily slowed the viral spread, though still growing by thousands a day. Using the success of these measures to minimize the viral threat ("it is about fear") is bizarre.
BTW the notion that the virus has been around longer than 3+ months (another attempt to minimize the viral threat) is a totally unproven pipedream. Tests for antibodies, which might provide a guide to previous exposure, are not available yet https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-immunity-to-covid-19-really-means/, and may never give good info. You keep mentioning "common sense", but think about this: if the virus had truly been around for "3+ months" (presumably infecting tens of thousands), why has it taken so long for the first deaths to appear, and after the first death happened we saw exponential increase every day?....and believe me, there is no confusing deaths from this virus from other causes.

[PaceAdvantage]

The scientific inaccuracy of this post is crazy. You use the relatively low # of deaths so far to say that the danger is not the virus, but just fear. You don't seem to understand how exponential pandemic viral growth works. Less than 2 months ago, there were zero deaths in the USA; now we are closing on 30k. You use this still low # (compared to umpteen different scourges) to minimize models, and the viral threat. The big thing you are ignoring is the extreme measures taken (closing down most of nation), which has never been done before in world history. It is these measures that have temporarily slowed the viral spread, though still growing by thousands a day. Using the success of these measures to minimize the viral threat ("it is about fear") is bizarre.
BTW the notion that the virus has been around longer than 3+ months (another attempt to minimize the viral threat) is a totally unproven pipedream. Tests for antibodies, which might provide a guide to previous exposure, are not available yet https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-immunity-to-covid-19-really-means/, and may never give good info. You keep mentioning "common sense", but think about this: if the virus had truly been around for "3+ months" (presumably infecting tens of thousands), why has it taken so long for the first deaths to appear, and after the first death happened we saw exponential increase every day?....and believe me, there is no confusing deaths from this virus from other causes.It's CRAZY man...just CRAZY!

Take it to off-topic if you want to talk about this further. This isn't for here. There are quite a few points in your reply that are nowhere near set in any type of stone, as you try and make it appear.

[dilanesp]

One last thing. Early on in this whole ordeal (early March), you know what kind of numbers they were dishing out?

If we were to "ride it out" and not do anything (which I never advocated BTW), they were projecting 2.2 MILLION Americans could die from this disease.

Based on the current numbers we see here and worldwide, do you actually think, even if we did NOTHING, that 2.2 MILLION people would die from this virus?

Those are the kinds of numbers and flawed models I'm talking about.

Yes, I do. Absolutely. Had we not done anything and untested asymptomatic Americans were congregating at Spring Break and NASCAR races and Coachella and everything else? Yeah, I think it's pretty obvious that we would be looking at huge numbers.

[PaceAdvantage]

Time to close this thread. It has turned into off-topic Part Deux