rank the TC winners

[dilanesp]

We need something to do right now, right? So let's start some discussions. First one is rank all 13 TC winners. Here's mine, based on career accomplishment (i.e. not raw speed- for the record, I think Citation, Secretariat, and Count Fleet were far faster than any of the other TC winners):

1. Citation
2. Affirmed
3. Secretariat
4. Whirlaway
5. Gallant Fox
6. War Admiral
7. Count Fleet
8. Seattle Slew
9. American Pharoah
10. Assault
11. Omaha
12. Sir Barton
13. Justify*

[ReplayRandall]

War Admiral and American Pharoah both need to be moved up, as both horses brought peak interest to the sport with subsequent races.

War Admiral's match-race with Seabiscuit was just what the Depression era nation needed at that time....

American Pharoah ended the long drought between TC winners, and his victory in the Breeders Cup Classic created a new category of Excellence, the "Grand Slam" of horse racing...

[RunForTheRoses]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1803k520Mi0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SinMwpXmpjQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htCUUTk6vT4

I'll add some more later.

[Jeff P]

I used a weighted average approach to get my top 11.

75% weight to velocity in fps across all three races. 25% subjective.

My top 11 looks like this:

1. Secretariat
2. Affirmed
3. Whirlaway
4. Seattle Slew
5. Count Fleet
6. War Admiral
7. Sir Barton
8. Omaha
9. Citation
10. Assault
11. Gallant Fox



My final two look like this:

12. Justify*
13. American Pharoah*

* Purely subjective on my part - but I decided both Justify and American Pharoah deserve asterisks.

Fyi, my reasoning for the asterisks is shaped by recent events that Justify (see what I did there?) my suspicions as to whether or not any of the exceptional performances by horses under the care of our present day "name" trainers are actually real.

Navarro, Servis Among 27 Indicted On Federal Charges Related To Performance-Enhancing Drugs:
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/navarro-servis-among-27-indicted-on-federal-charges-related-to-performance-enhancing-drugs/

Justify Tested Positive For Scopolamine After Santa Anita Derby; CHRB Dismissed Case:
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/new-york-times-justify-tested-positive-for-scopolamine-after-santa-anita-derby-chrb-dismissed-case/

Report on Baffert Deaths: No Wrongdoing But ‘There’s Something Wrong Here’:
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/report-on-baffert-deaths-no-wrongdoing-but-theres-something-wrong-here/



-jp

.

[ultracapper]

War Admiral and American Pharoah both need to be moved up, as both horses brought peak interest to the sport with subsequent races.

War Admiral's match-race with Seabiscuit was just what the Depression era nation needed at that time....

American Pharoah ended the long drought between TC winners, and his victory in the Breeders Cup Classic created a new category of Excellence, the "Grand Slam" of horse racing...

Sec ended a 25 year drought also. Did it in style.

[The_Turf_Monster]

I have a hard time with Secretariat being on top or even near it given his record at stud, same with Whirlaway though both are still going on the dam side of pedigrees. For me it's probably some combo of Citation, Seattle Slew, and Omaha in the top 3

[classhandicapper]

Accomplishments vs. how good the horse was gets tricky when you look at the very long term record.

It's a subjective balance between absolute peak, sustained peak and longevity, opportunity to accomplish more without getting retired early etc..

In my lifetime I would rate them

1. Secretariat
2. Seattle Slew
3. Affirmed
4. American Pharoah
5. Justify

[rastajenk]

Secretariat first, the rest nowhere.

[Afleet]

Omaha since he won races in Europe as well

[The_Turf_Monster]

I don't even consider American Pharoah and Justify to be triple crown winners. American Pharoah because he outran his pedigree by at least 2 furlongs in the Belmont while running away (which should raise some eyebrows) and Justify because he never should have ran in the Kentucky Derby. It's an insult to most of the triple crown winners before them

[ultracapper]

Horses outrun their pedigree often enough that I wouldn't disqualify a horse for that. Correct me if I'm wrong, which I'm sure will happen, but John Henry wasn't really bred for turf, was he? It took them long enough to commit to turf anyway.

[CheckMark]

How I would rank the list above (more knowledgeable about newer horses rather than older ones like idk who Omaha or Assault is)

1) Secretariat
2) American Pharoah
3) Seattle Slew
4) Affirmed
5) War Admiral
6) Justify (should have not even been racing due to drug mishap thing)
7) Sir Barton
8) Citation
9) Count Fleet
10) Gallant Fox
11) Whirlaway
12 and 13 would be a * since I left out Omaha and Assault

[Blenheim]

I used a weighted average approach to get my top 11.

75% weight to velocity in fps across all three races. 25% subjective.

My top 11 looks like this:

1. Secretariat
2. Affirmed
3. Whirlaway
4. Seattle Slew
5. Count Fleet
6. War Admiral
7. Sir Barton
8. Omaha
9. Citation
10. Assault
11. Gallant Fox

My final two look like this:

12. Justify*
13. American Pharoah*

* Purely subjective on my part - but I decided both Justify and American Pharoah deserve asterisks.

Fyi, my reasoning for the asterisks is shaped by recent events that Justify (see what I did there?) my suspicions as to whether or not any of the exceptional performances by horses under the care of our present day "name" trainers are actually real.

Navarro, Servis Among 27 Indicted On Federal Charges Related To Performance-Enhancing Drugs:
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/navarro-servis-among-27-indicted-on-federal-charges-related-to-performance-enhancing-drugs/

Justify Tested Positive For Scopolamine After Santa Anita Derby; CHRB Dismissed Case:
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/new-york-times-justify-tested-positive-for-scopolamine-after-santa-anita-derby-chrb-dismissed-case/

Report on Baffert Deaths: No Wrongdoing But ‘There’s Something Wrong Here’:
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/report-on-baffert-deaths-no-wrongdoing-but-theres-something-wrong-here/

-jp
.

I agree w/this post for the most part. I'd like to add . . . those were different times and those, different types of horses.

Whirlaway 60 32 15 9

In the course of 57 days Whirlaway ran the following races:

24 April, 2nd Bluegrass S
10f work: 2:07.40
29 April, 2nd Derby Trial
04 May, 1st Kentucky Derby (2:01 2/5 stood for 21 years).
10 May, 1st Preakness
20 May, 1st Al 2500
07 June, 1st Belmont Stakes
21 June, 1st Dwyer

W/respect to Secretariat’s Derby track record, I’ve read the track was lickety-split fast that day w/Allowance horses running a few ticks off the track record.
~
Here is what (6) time Kentucky Winning trainer Ben Jones had to say when asked the following question by the late great Sports Illustrated writer William Nack.

"And I was wondering, of all the great Calumet horses you trained who was the greatest of all? "Armed!" (https://www.pedigreequery.com/armed) he said. "Armed could do anything," Ben said. "He could sprint, run a route and carry weight doin' it. Could do it all."

[dilanesp]

FWIW, I think Secretariat got a decent pace to run at, but other than that, there's nothing flukish about his track record performance in the Derby.

A pretty reliable guide is that if horses set multiple track records, they probably aren't flukes. Secretariat set records in the Derby, the Belmont, the Marlboro Cup, and the Man O' War, plus was credited with a disputed record in the Preakness as well.

Other horses who set multiple track records, like Swaps, Man O' War, Round Table, and Spectacular Bid were all legit fast horses. Secretariat gets total credit for his Derby record, especially when you consider that every top 3 year old runs in that race every year and the only one who has come anywhere close was Monarchos (who did catch a fast track).

[dilanesp]

Horses outrun their pedigree often enough that I wouldn't disqualify a horse for that. Correct me if I'm wrong, which I'm sure will happen, but John Henry wasn't really bred for turf, was he? It took them long enough to commit to turf anyway.

John Henry wasn't bred for anything! :)

He's a wonderful example of the fact that breeding only gets you so far as a tool for predicting performance; there's still a wonderful randomness to this sport.

[Secondbest]

FWIW, I think Secretariat got a decent pace to run at, but other than that, there's nothing flukish about his track record performance in the Derby.

A pretty reliable guide is that if horses set multiple track records, they probably aren't flukes. Secretariat set records in the Derby, the Belmont, the Marlboro Cup, and the Man O' War, plus was credited with a disputed record in the Preakness as well.

Other horses who set multiple track records, like Swaps, Man O' War, Round Table, and Spectacular Bid were all legit fast horses. Secretariat gets total credit for his Derby record, especially when you consider that every top 3 year old runs in that race every year and the only one who has come anywhere close was Monarchos (who did catch a fast track).

And the Man O’ War was on turf. Thats 2 track records on 2 different surfaces. At a mile and a half.

[classhandicapper]

I don't think it makes much sense to compare these horses based on the times they ran (especially raw times). The surfaces had different compositions, they had different depths, maintenance crews used to juice the tracks up on big days, drug use was different etc..

You can look at Secretariat's Derby and know he must have run fast (or very well) because he won so easily and there was a huge gap to 3rd after Sham in a field that was generally regarded as being a pretty good one. All you have to do is look at some of the sustained moves he made that would have emptied anything other than an absolute monster, but he finished well anyway.

[dilanesp]

I don't think it makes much sense to compare these horses based on the times they ran (especially raw times). The surfaces had different compositions, they had different depths, maintenance crews used to juice the tracks up on big days, drug use was different etc..

You can look at Secretariat's Derby and know he must have run fast (or very well) because he won so easily and there was a huge gap to 3rd after Sham in a field that was generally regarded as being a pretty good one. All you have to do is look at some of the sustained moves he made that would have emptied anything other than an absolute monster, but he finished well anyway.

That's not false, but when you see a horse rattle off a bunch of record times, it is very unlikely to be a coincidence.

[classhandicapper]

That's not false, but when you see a horse rattle off a bunch of record times, it is very unlikely to be a coincidence.

Especially when they are winning big.

[Blenheim]

The Unbeatable Horse (http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2008/08/04/The-Unbeatable-Horse.aspx)

[dilanesp]

The Unbeatable Horse (http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2008/08/04/The-Unbeatable-Horse.aspx)

I am glad he gives Prove Out his due, but the "he didn't train right" is a classic racetrack excuse. It's totally unprovable. Why not say the track was cuppy while they are at it?

Your caption was right- some horses have a cult that believes the horse should never get beat. Secretariat lost 5 races. You can argue the DQ was a bad call and he had a bad trip first out, but the other 3 were legit losses.

[Maximillion]

The Unbeatable Horse (http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2008/08/04/The-Unbeatable-Horse.aspx)

In my opinion.....in that short window of time this was the best horse of the last 50 years.

[Robert Fischer]

I can't even tell you who would win between Justify, and American Pharaoah.

American Pharaoah had better fundamentals, but Justify won the triple crown with a hoof issue...

Arrogate - no triple crown, but was a once-in-a-generation horse as well in his prime...

Can't argue with Secretariat for number one.

Not a historian, and haven't studied most of the others.

[dilanesp]

In my opinion.....in that short window of time this was the best horse of the last 50 years.

I agree when put this way. He didn't have the best career, because he didn't run past 3 and ran at a pretty limited number of tracks. But he was the Sandy Koufax of racing- over a defined period of time, there was nobody in history that was better. And if the 1973 Belmont isn't the best single performance by an American racehorse (and it arguably is), it's on a very short list.

[Maximillion]

I agree when put this way. He didn't have the best career, because he didn't run past 3 and ran at a pretty limited number of tracks. But he was the Sandy Koufax of racing- over a defined period of time, there was nobody in history that was better. And if the 1973 Belmont isn't the best single performance by an American racehorse (and it arguably is), it's on a very short list.

I was actually talking about Prove Out.

[dilanesp]

I was actually talking about Prove Out.

Prove Out ran his eyeballs out that day!

[classhandicapper]

Prove Out ran his eyeballs out that day!

You can tell Secretariat had an off race against Onion (I think Steve Davidowitz also claimed he raced on a dead rail) because the gap to 3rd was only 1/2 length to Rule By Reason.

When he lost to Prove Out is was a gap of 11 lengths to Cougar II who was no slouch himself having just run good 3rd in the Marboro. Granted it was an off track and sometimes the margins get inflated, but it's more evidence that Secretariat ran his race but got beat by a horse that was other worldly good on that day.

[Tom]

FWIW, I think Secretariat got a decent pace to run at, but other than that, there's nothing flukish about his track record performance in the Derby.



How about that pace HE set in his Belmont?
You couldn't catch him even if you did sprout wings! :lol:

And his Preakness, Tony Black described it best - "He was supposed to be the "big horse" but the further we ran, the smaller he got!" :lol:

[Secondbest]

How about that pace HE set in his Belmont?
You couldn't catch him even if you did sprout wings! :lol:

And his Preakness, Tony Black described it best - "He was supposed to be the "big horse" but the further we ran, the smaller he got!" :lol:

That run in the Preakness from last to first on the first turn is one of the greatest moves ever in a race.If not the greatest.

[dilanesp]

That run in the Preakness from last to first on the first turn is one of the greatest moves ever in a race.If not the greatest.

It's actually slightly misinterpreted. It's not the move that was so amazing- in actuality, while it isn't common, horses sometimes make moves like that on the first turn. Indeed, if jockeys wanted to, many horses could, because most of the horses are rating somewhat on the first turn so if you just decide to burn it up, you can go from last to first.

But what WAS amazing is that having made that move, Secretariat never got tired and went on and won the race by the same margin that he had beaten Sham in the Derby. In other words, he ended up at least delivering a broadly similar performance despite the fact that he had ostensibly used up a ton of energy on the first turn.

[Prof.Factor]

That run in the Preakness from last to first on the first turn is one of the greatest moves ever in a race.If not the greatest.

Arazi - 1991 BC Juvenile was pretty good

That would be a good topic ... greatest moves

[tubesockshakur]

Alysheba in the 88 Santa Anita handicap..... made an incredible move on the backstretch. He was underrated. Think he ran 3 sub 2 min. 10 furlong races at 3 different tracks that year.