Projected odds in DRF PPs

[cj]

https://promos.drf.com/projectedodds?utm_source=email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=projectedoddsecom&utm_content=projectedodds

[CheckMark]

Beat me to it!

Seems like a cool idea! :jump:

[classhandicapper]

Nice addition!

I have a pretty good guess about who did a lot of the research and development of these algorithms. That means they are GOOD. :ThmbUp:

[thaskalos]

Will this finally put the ML-maker out of business?

[Gorrex]

I'm happy to see others are starting to implement this as well.

Hopefully more ADWs will implement it as well now that a second one has.

[Suff]

I like them already.

As soon as betting pools open for a race, until 10 MTP, we use an algorithm that relies primarily on the Daily Double pool.


At 10 MTP, shorter-priced horses’ odds are further enhanced, combining the earlier projection with the latest updates from the win pool


At 5 MTP, projected odds lock in. See for yourself why they are far more predictive than the current live odds

[Speed Figure]

20,000 races is a pretty low sample size!

[Tom]

I don't see them in the paper edition :confused:

[castaway01]

I don't see them in the paper edition :confused:

Click the line in the first post and read how they are created---they're based on the actual betting pools leading up to the race. Kinda tough to have those in the paper edition.

[MJC922]

Really nice addition in my opinion, I'm not sure what the accuracy looks like relative to final odds but I definitely appreciate the effort. What I would expect to see as a next step would be the ability to tie the 5 MTP locked in odds to a conditional wager in the win pool because for those of us with day jobs it could be a bit of a game-changer. Certainly looking forward to MTH's fixed odds offering to be sure but this move by the DRF is something to stir up some excitement too and at more tracks.

[Suff]

Click the line in the first post and read how they are created---they're based on the actual betting pools leading up to the race. Kinda tough to have those in the paper edition.


look up.

[Suff]

This twitter message is probably not something I'd recommend if I was in the marketing meeting.



Late Odds changes are obviously frustrating for horseplayers, but it's also annoying to hear analysts ooh & ahhh over early live odds fluctuations that are unlikely to mean much once all of the money is in. It's misleading and lazy--kudos to those who already avoid that trap.

[Tom]

Click the line in the first post and read how they are created---they're based on the actual betting pools leading up to the race. Kinda tough to have those in the paper edition.

Well DUH! :lol:

[mountainman]

useful feature if their crowing proves justified. time will tell. i'm open, but have questions and misgivings.

[Robert Fischer]

Smart feature. Good idea.

Useful for most players.

There will be an occasional outlier, but this will be very accurate in general and in terms of significance.

Positive for the INTEGRITY of the sport itself. May sound like hot air, but when a winner's odds drop in the last flash, 85% of the time you will be able to say "but, DRF Odds-Projector predicted that would happen".
Conveying that info to the weekend warrior goes a long way to solving a decent sized slice of the constant late-odds complaints and integrity questions.

[cj]

I posted this well before the race, the GP Mile...

https://twitter.com/TimeformUSfigs/status/1233875420791083008

:5: horse wound up going of 4-1 (was 6-1 at the break) and :11: horse wound up going off 11-1 (was 7-1 at the break).

[Tom]

Smart feature. Good idea.

Useful for most players.

There will be an occasional outlier, but this will be very accurate in general and in terms of significance.

Positive for the INTEGRITY of the sport itself. May sound like hot air, but when a winner's odds drop in the last flash, 85% of the time you will be able to say "but, DRF Odds-Projector predicted that would happen".
Conveying that info to the weekend warrior goes a long way to solving a decent sized slice of the constant late-odds complaints and integrity questions.

Good point. :ThmbUp: