What are the odds of THAT?

[Jeff P]

This afternoon I was debugging some code I wrote a month or so back that parses scratches from the HTML in one of the Equibase web pages. While testing my work I noticed something very odd.

The post positions of the scratched horses at Calder Race 2 were 4, 6, 9, and 11.

The same post positions 4, 6, 9, and 11 were also scratched from Calder Race 5.

What are the odds of THAT?

[hurrikane]

hey Jeff,

uhh, slow day on the code bench? :D

[Jeff P]

There's a pretty good thread going on in the General Handicapping forum. One of the topics mentioned is boredom and burnout.

I've spent at least 10 hours a day, every day, for the past 10 months writing code for a handicapping project I've been working on. I don't go in to an office. I work from home, alone, and have no immediate peers.

Reading my own post from yesterday cinches it for me.

I definitely need a vacation.

[BillW]

Originally posted by Jeff P
There's a pretty good thread going on in the General Handicapping forum. One of the topics mentioned is boredom and burnout.

I've spent at least 10 hours a day, every day, for the past 10 months writing code for a handicapping project I've been working on. I don't go in to an office. I work from home, alone, and have no immediate peers.

Reading my own post from yesterday cinches it for me.

I definitely need a vacation.

Jeff,

I know the feeling. Today my solar charging watch blanked its display and indicated a low battery. :eek: :D

Bill

[kenwoodallpromos]

I suppose the odds vary according to which hurrican was passing through. Also 9 and 11 may get scratched a lot since they are high posts.

[Secretariat]

Speaking of What are the Odds of That .... Does anyone here have a breakdown of the number of lengths behind on average based on the actual post time odds of the horses? I have an old chart, but just wondering if it is still applicable.

Just curious on the number of lengths back horses 2/1 finish on average as opposed to say horses 15/1 or 1/1.

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by Jeff P
There's a pretty good thread going on in the General Handicapping forum. One of the topics mentioned is boredom and burnout.

I've spent at least 10 hours a day, every day, for the past 10 months writing code for a handicapping project I've been working on. I don't go in to an office. I work from home, alone, and have no immediate peers.

Reading my own post from yesterday cinches it for me.

I definitely need a vacation. Why not try trout fishing?

[sjk]

Secretariat,

Here is the answer to your question:

from to avg beat len
0 0.99 3.5
1 1.99 4.36
2 2.99 5.53
3 3.99 6.47
4 4.99 7.16
5 5.99 7.75
6 6.99 8.2
7 7.99 8.63
8 8.99 9.02
9 9.99 9.34
10 10.99 9.78
11 11.99 10.01
12 12.99 10.28
13 13.99 10.58
14 14.99 10.78
15 15.99 11.03
16 16.99 11.26
17 17.99 11.38
18 18.99 11.71
19 19.99 11.82
20 99 14.94

[Secretariat]

Originally posted by sjk
Secretariat,

Here is the answer to your question:

from to avg beat len
0 0.99 3.5
1 1.99 4.36
2 2.99 5.53
3 3.99 6.47
4 4.99 7.16
5 5.99 7.75
6 6.99 8.2
7 7.99 8.63
8 8.99 9.02
9 9.99 9.34
10 10.99 9.78
11 11.99 10.01
12 12.99 10.28
13 13.99 10.58
14 14.99 10.78
15 15.99 11.03
16 16.99 11.26
17 17.99 11.38
18 18.99 11.71
19 19.99 11.82
20 99 14.94

sjk,

thanks much. Quite different than my estimate. Does your query factor winners in as well? For example, in your category 0 to 0.99 you list avg. beaten lengths as 3.5, but it would seem that since these horses win over 50% of the races...

Perhaps the "median" beaten lengths rather than average would reveal a more accurate look as it would deal with those horses losing by breaking down, etc and huge margins. For example, horses 0 to 0.99 would most likely end up as zero since more winners would appear in this group and be over 50% win.

Is it possible to obtain the "median" beaten lengths? Sorry, if not, I sincerely appreciate the time you put into this.

[JustRalph]

I looked up esoteric in google and I got this thread!

[sjk]

from to med beat len
0 0.99 0.1
1 1.99 2
2 2.99 3.29
3 3.99 4.5
4 4.99 5.25
5 5.99 5.75
6 6.99 6.25
7 7.99 6.75
8 8.99 7
9 9.99 7.4
10 10.99 7.75
11 11.99 8
12 12.99 8.25
13 13.99 8.51
14 14.99 8.75
15 15.99 9
16 16.99 9.25
17 17.99 9.3
18 18.99 9.6
19 19.99 9.75
20 99 12.5

[Secretariat]

SJK,

THank you very, very much. Exactly what I was looking for. You're a gentleman and a scholar.

[Tom]

With odds chaninging so late, will this info be close enough to use as is? I wonder if a strong correlation exists using ML?
I guess I have the dat to do it.....

[Tom]

With odds chaninging so late, will this info be close enough to use as is? I wonder if a strong correlation exists using ML?
I guess I have the data to do it.....