Fixed odds betting at 2020 Monmouth meet

[biggestal99]

https://www.drf.com/news/fixed-odds-bets-could-be-ready-monmouth-meet?type=

It’s already been posted in the sports betting thread but I think it needs one of its own as this is huge.

Allan

[green80]

Will fixed odds betting be the answer to the problem with late odds drops? What kind of deal will we get with fixed odds, what's the take?

[horses4courses]

BetMakers should be commended for starting this venture.
They won't make much money doing it, if any at all.

Now, if they were eventually allowed to expand to all
major tracks across the country? That would be different.

At least it seems it will be offered to everyone betting on
Monmouth Park, regardless of where they are betting from.

Good luck to them.
It could change the game in a good way. :ThmbUp:

[cj]

Exchange is way better than fixed odds IMO. I guess we'll have to see the lines offered, but I'm not optimistic. Win against the house and you usually get blackballed. It has already happened big time with sports betting in New Jersey.

[horses4courses]

to get backed off by a bookmaker.

They are running a business.
Anyone with a consistent edge in beating the house
through wagering on anything, can't expect to repeat
that act over and over. You'll be told to take your
business elsewhere. Nothing personal. It's just business.

The biggest obstacle for US race bettors that I can see
is the popularity of exotic wagering, especially high
paying horizontal wagers. Pari-mutuel wagering is the
only way to go with exotics - from exactas on up.
The limits imposed by bookmakers make them
impossible to bet on.

Exchange wagering is fine and dandy.
The house automatically gets it's cut, and sophisticated
bettors can shop around for attractive odds.
There is no danger that they can't get down, however,
how long can they depend on square bettors to take their action?
Eventually that money source will dry up. Also, their limits are often low.

A concern for everyone is race fixing/doping.
Doesn't matter what type of wagering is involved.
It's probably easiest to get away with in the pari-mutuel arena.
Bookmakers won't sustain paying out - fixers leave footprints on exchanges.

Fixed odds at Monmouth will likely start off slowly.
Somewhere down the line, though, someone with
insider information will get greedy and take a shot.
Could be very interesting.

[Appy]

I, for one, would find playing Monmouth far more attractive with fixed odds than I have in the past. But I doubt it will be a lasting change. Seems to me the really big players and organizations laundering huge sums would drool over such an arrangement.
But it would surely change the late money system we have going now. The only impedance to getting your play entered is waiting for the changes to be posted. That would be a huge time saver.

[castaway01]

It's always good to have another option, though the Monmouth product has become so unappealing that I don't know if this change could make me bet it.

[cutchemist42]

Australia has fixed odds doesnt it? How do they handle fixed races?

[biggestal99]

Will fixed odds betting be the answer to the problem with late odds drops? What kind of deal will we get with fixed odds, what's the take?


The devil is always in the details.


Australia, Ireland and the UK offer fixed odds, along with the tote and the exchange. its just more innovative thinking by monmouth.


with this deal, Monmouth is also exposing their PM pools to international bettors.


Allan

[biggestal99]

Exchange is way better than fixed odds IMO. I guess we'll have to see the lines offered, but I'm not optimistic. Win against the house and you usually get blackballed. It has already happened big time with sports betting in New Jersey.

I am sure I will have a fixed odds account, along with my exchange account.

We shall see who offers the best price.

The only thing bad about fixed odds is that I can’t lay bets.

I am also quite sure there will be some arb opportunities that bots will spot

Allan

[Onion Monster]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EPyAREVX0AMGYw_.jpg

[Redboard]

Interesting! 90 seconds to post, the pari-mutuel says 6-1, BetMakers will give you 4-1 now. The DD odds suggest 3-1. What do you do?

Hope it works.

Good luck Monmouth.

[MJC922]

I am sure I will have a fixed odds account, along with my exchange account.

We shall see who offers the best price.

The only thing bad about fixed odds is that I can’t lay bets.

I am also quite sure there will be some arb opportunities that bots will spot

Allan

Lay against is just dutching the entire field against one horse. They could offer it if they want to, it's just another set of odds.

[MJC922]

Interesting! 90 seconds to post, the pari-mutuel says 6-1, BetMakers will give you 4-1 now. The DD odds suggest 3-1. What do you do?

Hope it works.

Good luck Monmouth.

If he's 3-1 on your line you just take the 4-1 and sleep like a baby because long term you're golden... this is a huge game changer.

[MJC922]

Will fixed odds betting be the answer to the problem with late odds drops? What kind of deal will we get with fixed odds, what's the take?

The handicapper creates a 100% line, consider tote odds are approx 100% + Win pool takeout, with breakage etc ballpark 120%. A fixed odds line will (I suspect) be a notch higher. The percentage higher will lead many to believe this is a bad deal and it's relevant but it's only relevant to how many overlays you'll actually find. If it's too high then overlays will be rare enough that it won't be worth bothering. I don't think it will be nearly that bad.

What can't be underestimated is for the first time you can actually prevent yourself from betting on what you believe to be an underlay. It finally levels the playing field 100% because if you're good enough and can manage your money you will win something.

[iamt]

The BetMakers tried offering fixed odds on Australian racing. They sold their site to save themselves going broke.

[horses4courses]

Australia has fixed odds doesnt it? How do they handle fixed races?

Bookmakers who take one way action on a race will cry foul.
They will also withhold payment on wagers until an investigation
is conducted and completed.

Sports bettors in the US occasionally encounter point shaving.
The best barometers to police this crime are legal bookmakers.
The illegal ones tend to stay pretty quiet about players cheating. :confused:

[thaskalos]

We are hearing stories about "winning" sports bettors getting turned away by the NJ racetrack sportsbooks. If a player doesn't bet online so his wagers can be tracked...how does the sportsbook know if he is a "winner" or not?

[horses4courses]

We are hearing stories about "winning" sports bettors getting turned away by the NJ racetrack sportsbooks. If a player doesn't bet online so his wagers can be tracked...how does the sportsbook know if he is a "winner" or not?

It comes down to the bookmaker getting to know the customers.
The best way around this for the bettor is to use someone else
to place wagers - the infamous "beard" scenario.

[thaskalos]

It comes down to the bookmaker getting to know the customers.
The best way around this for the bettor is to use someone else
to place wagers - the infamous "beard" scenario.

I realize that...but, how does this work out in actual practice? If I walk up to a sportsbook counter and bet 5 baseball games a day for $2,000 each, and I do this every day for a month...how can the bookmaker tell if I am a winner or not? If I cash 3 bets a day I am an "undesirable winner"...and if I cash 2 bets a day I am a "welcomed sucker". Can the bookmaker be expected to keep such a close eye on me...or will he assume that I am a "winner" just because of my continuous betting action?

[46zilzal]

A good friend is a bookie in Northern England (3rd generation) Over there your odds are "fixed" to the time you purchase the wager, SO if you know a big favorite might scratch on a Saturday race, you buy your choice late Thursday as it will hold up all the way to post with or without the late declaration.

[horses4courses]

I realize that...but, how does this work out in actual practice? If I walk up to a sportsbook counter and bet 5 baseball games a day for $2,000 each, and I do this every day for a month...how can the bookmaker tell if I am a winner or not? If I cash 3 bets a day I am an "undesirable winner"...and if I cash 2 bets a day I am a "welcomed sucker". Can the bookmaker be expected to keep such a close eye on me...or will he assume that I am a "winner" just because of my continuous betting action?

Nearly as important as your win/loss record will be the lines you take.
If you consistently get the best of the number before it changes,
you will attract attention.

Winning at a 60% clip is great for the bettor.
Unless you are doing it with close to limit wagers,
I don't see why you would be noticed.

These are new sports books in New Jersey.
Getting to know the clientele can take years.
Staying under the radar should not be too hard.

[horses4courses]

A good friend is a bookie in Northern England (3rd generation) Over there your odds are "fixed" to the time you purchase the wager, SO if you know a big favorite might scratch on a Saturday race, you buy your choice late Thursday as it will hold up all the way to post with or without the late declaration.

That's correct.

If you do the same thing on race day, though,
they make a deduction (known as Rule 4) from
your winnings. Futures (or ante post) are not
subject to that deduction, but you lose if you scratch.

[mountainman]

I don't like it. At all. So what if the entities that determine who goes favored and by how much feel compelled to show their hands earlier ( presumably, to counteract the late drops that most favorites take) ? I've spent a lot of time and energy honing a keen opinion on where the late money will land and have no desire to forfeit that edge.

And my guess is opening odds will simply go too low on chalk, while spotting other contenders pretty close to estimated closing prices, anyway. And you can bet they WILL set lines overstuffed with points, thus making it very hard to win, and affording the books myriad options to screw select groups of bettors on select types of chalk, contenders, and even races.

Where they are vulnerable is to big bets at long, fixed odds based on inside information.

One thing is unclear to me: do the odds change mechanically based on submitted wagers?? Or more like a football line, wherein the line moves as an attempt to stimulate play on lesser bet contestants??

It seems to me like we will now be playing poker not only against fellow bettors, but versus a mischievous tote, conciously attempting to mess with us.

The target may be stationary, but will be moved farther back.

[AltonKelsey]

A good friend is a bookie in Northern England (3rd generation) Over there your odds are "fixed" to the time you purchase the wager, SO if you know a big favorite might scratch on a Saturday race, you buy your choice late Thursday as it will hold up all the way to post with or without the late declaration.




Is that really how it works ??? Seems too good to be true. And if you bet on the scratched favorite you get a refund ?

[AltonKelsey]

That's correct.

If you do the same thing on race day, though,
they make a deduction (known as Rule 4) from
your winnings. Futures (or ante post) are not
subject to that deduction, but you lose if you scratch.


Ah, thought so. Still seems an owner would have a huge edge , betting against his fave early on, and then scratching

[MJC922]

I don't like it. At all. So what if the entities that determine who goes favored and by how much feel compelled to show their hands earlier ( presumably, to counteract the late drops that most favorites take) ? I've spent a lot of time and energy honing a keen opinion on where the late money will land and have no desire to forfeit that edge.

And my guess is opening odds will simply go too low on chalk, while spotting other contenders pretty close to estimated closing prices, anyway. And you can bet they WILL set lines overstuffed with points, thus making it very hard to win, and affording the books myriad options to screw select groups of bettors on select types of chalk, contenders, and even races.

Where they are vulnerable is to big bets at long, fixed odds based on inside information.

One thing is unclear to me: do the odds change mechanically based on submitted wagers?? Or more like a football line, wherein the line moves as an attempt to stimulate play on lesser bet contestants??

It seems to me like we will now be playing poker not only against fellow bettors, but versus a mischievous tote, conciously attempting to mess with us.

The target may be stationary, but will be moved farther back.

With that embarrassing farce Mountaineer has had going on with their tote you would think any other option would be welcomed by fans with open arms.

[biggestal99]

The handicapper creates a 100% line, consider tote odds are approx 100% + Win pool takeout, with breakage etc ballpark 120%. A fixed odds line will (I suspect) be a notch higher. The percentage higher will lead many to believe this is a bad deal and it's relevant but it's only relevant to how many overlays you'll actually find. If it's too high then overlays will be rare enough that it won't be worth bothering. I don't think it will be nearly that bad.

What can't be underestimated is for the first time you can actually prevent yourself from betting on what you believe to be an underlay. It finally levels the playing field 100% because if you're good enough and can manage your money you will win something.

In the UK they give the fixed odds %.

Yesterday’s ran between 118% and 128% at the Chelmsford all-weather meet.

Allan

[MJC922]

In the UK they give the fixed odds %.

Yesterday’s ran between 118% and 128% at the Chelmsford all-weather meet.

Allan

Thanks Allan. I was thinking 125% would be about right.

[biggestal99]

I wonder if the DRF will report the fixed odds SP and handle.



They dont report the Exchange price or handle.


Monmouth will have a tote price, a fixed odds price and an exchange price.


it will be a punters paradise.


Allan

[classhandicapper]

I think the more options we have the better because you can shop.

At one time I had regular ADW account, a rebate shop with generous rebates, and an exchange. I would take the horse at whatever place was offering the best price (and sometimes the difference were quite significant on non favorites I liked). I also had the option of booking bets on horses I didn't like instead of trying to construct a "bet against" wager in a race where I other had no opinions. Finally, I could sometimes bet a horse at the rebate shop and book the horse at the exchange and no matter happened net a profit. I had one of my best years.

[mountainman]

With that embarrassing farce Mountaineer has had going on with their tote you would think any other option would be welcomed by fans with open arms.

I strongly doubt that fixed odds are in mnr's future. Or that of any similar sized track. For tons of reasons.

[The_Turf_Monster]

The most intriguing aspect of this to me will be watching how Monmouth polices its horsemen to ensure the integrity of the product

[tophatmert]

Nearly as important as your win/loss record will be the lines you take.
If you consistently get the best of the number before it changes,
you will attract attention.

Winning at a 60% clip is great for the bettor.
Unless you are doing it with close to limit wagers,
I don't see why you would be noticed.

These are new sports books in New Jersey.
Getting to know the clientele can take years.
Staying under the radar should not be too hard.

The first paragraph is the important one. Street bm's will cut the smart money off unless they can get it for more through other bm's. I know the legal sports books will eventually cut people off but it could take some time. Don't forget that they can change the rules also. The more obscure lines might tighten up with increased play also.

[Redboard]

The most intriguing aspect of this to me will be watching how Monmouth polices its horsemen to ensure the integrity of the product

I would think that they would have to limit the bet amounts, and perhaps ban track employees and their families. Make them stick to the pari-mutual.

I realize that this is an industry that not only allows insider trading but encourages, and sometimes requires it at some tracks.

[The_Turf_Monster]

I would think that they would have to limit the bet amounts, and perhaps ban track employees and their families. Make them stick to the pari-mutual.

I realize that this is an industry that not only allows insider trading but encourages, and sometimes requires it at some tracks.

That's what I'm getting at, these aren't the horsemen of Europe or Australia dealing with the private punters that can smell a fish when they see one. I give this maybe a month into the meet when fixed-odds disappear. This is an avenue that opens the door to race-fixing, not good imo. There's nothing wrong with the parimutuel system outside of how and when the pools update

[biggestal99]

That's what I'm getting at, these aren't the horsemen of Europe or Australia dealing with the private punters that can smell a fish when they see one. I give this maybe a month into the meet when fixed-odds disappear. This is an avenue that opens the door to race-fixing, not good imo. There's nothing wrong with the parimutuel system outside of how and when the pools update

They have been running the exchange in jersey for years with nary a problem.

The exchange is fixed odds.

Allan

[jameegray1]

I'm from the UK where we have a combination of tote (pool), fixed odds and exchanges. You will probably find that once Monmouth betting settles down the fixed odds offer will end up aligning very closely to the final mutual odds on most selections. We already have fixed odds betting available from many outlets on US races and the prices are usually not far out.

Beware you will find that the Sportsbook operator will be much quicker to turn away your bets than you might think. In the UK just placing a couple of bets at odds anywhere close to the exchanges can result in accounts limited whether they win or lose. They run away from potential arbers just as quickly as they do winners. They are much more interested in sucking you in with introductory offers and then pushing their casino offer than they are in actually taking your sports bets.

[The_Turf_Monster]

They have been running the exchange in jersey for years with nary a problem.

The exchange is fixed odds.

Allan

The exchange where every dollar is matched is a completely different animal than fixed odds with no limit. Let's not shift the goalposts on this

[MJC922]

The exchange where every dollar is matched is a completely different animal than fixed odds with no limit. Let's not shift the goalposts on this

I fully expect there to be limits. With that being said I don't expect to be turned away for wanting to bet $200 on a 3-1 claimer at a major league track. If someone expects to walk up and bet $5000 to win on something, good luck. For a triple crown caliber race yes, I'm guessing higher limits might be in play.

[jameegray1]

I fully expect there to be limits. With that being said I don't expect to be turned away for wanting to bet $200 on a 3-1 claimer at a major league track. If someone expects to walk up and bet $5000 to win on something, good luck. For a triple crown caliber race yes, I'm guessing higher limits might be in play.

Plenty of companies in the UK that would limit you to 50c or even less once you've had a few value bets placed.

[biggestal99]

The exchange where every dollar is matched is a completely different animal than fixed odds with no limit. Let's not shift the goalposts on this

Fixed odds have limits.

Allan

[Appy]

I think the option for the house to impose limits is fair. Whoever makes the house lines is just a handicapper working for the house. All handicappers make mistakes. The house has to have a backup plan to safeguard themselves in the event of a big winner. Maybe some kind of insurance policy that will bet they never have to pay. But limiting the amount of loss the house can sustain on a single bet seems reasonable to me.

[AltonKelsey]

Fixed odds limits have little to do with anyone making mistakes



It has to do with outsized bets vs the total amount bet on the race.

[thaskalos]

The handicapper creates a 100% line, consider tote odds are approx 100% + Win pool takeout, with breakage etc ballpark 120%. A fixed odds line will (I suspect) be a notch higher.


If ever a fixed-odds line gets implemented at a racetrack...my guess is that the win probabilities of the field will total about 200%. The tracks are very risk-averse when their own money is at stake...and they will do whatever they can to discourage heavy play against their newly-installed fixed-odds line.

[RunForTheRoses]

I realize that...but, how does this work out in actual practice? If I walk up to a sportsbook counter and bet 5 baseball games a day for $2,000 each, and I do this every day for a month...how can the bookmaker tell if I am a winner or not? If I cash 3 bets a day I am an "undesirable winner"...and if I cash 2 bets a day I am a "welcomed sucker". Can the bookmaker be expected to keep such a close eye on me...or will he assume that I am a "winner" just because of my continuous betting action?

What they do is if you are betting any decent money is make you use a Players Card.

[horses4courses]

If ever a fixed-odds line gets implemented at a racetrack...my guess is that the win probabilities of the field will total about 200%. The tracks are very risk-averse when their own money is at stake...and they will do whatever they can to discourage heavy play against their newly-installed fixed-odds line.

That doesn't make sense to me.

We'll have to wait and see, but I believe the line the books set
will be more attractive takeout-wise than the regular pari-mutuel
line. The only way they can get players is to make it a better deal.

How is the track's money at risk?
This is an independent bookmaker taking action.

[horses4courses]

What they do is if you are betting any decent money is make you use a Players Card.

Technology has made it easier to track players.
In addition to this, FINCEN and the IRS have bet takers
tracking play in order to combat money laundering.

Failure to do so can result in massive fines.
You can't run these operations now without total compliance.

[horses4courses]

......sheer lunacy?
What do you think?

BetMakers CEO Todd Buckingham said. "We believe that U.S. horse racing has the potential to be the largest betting sport in the U.S., including basketball, American football, and baseball. There is a real opportunity for the U.S. horse racing market to grow like it has in Australia, which has seen prize-money levels double over the past seven to 10 years based on a funding model that is equitable to all participants."

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/238511/monmouth-continues-innovation-with-fixed-odds-wagering

[Redboard]

This is a good first step and I don't want to be negative, but it doesn't give anybody incentive to attend the track in person, since this will be available online. Also, in this system, there is only one bookmaker, at Ascot there are rows of bookmakers betting against one another for your bet.

Just saying.

[iamt]

......sheer lunacy?
What do you think?



https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/238511/monmouth-continues-innovation-with-fixed-odds-wagering




Lunacy.


The Australian model returns about 2% of handle to the tracks, and the growth in prizemoney hasn't come from a handle explosion, but government either subsidizing or lowering taxes on the tracks.


Fixed odds, while a plus for the bettor, can't generate the increase in handle to offset the lower returns. It will keep some people in the game longer but won't help the track's business and might do more to hurt it.

[classhandicapper]

Also, in this system, there is only one bookmaker, at Ascot there are rows of bookmakers betting against one another for your bet.

Just saying.

I tend to share this concern.

With only one bookmaker, the average price offered will probably not be especially attractive relative to the track prices. You may actually get worse prices long term as a trade-off for the advantage of at least knowing what you are getting beforehand.

The thinking may go like this.

I'm willing to take an average price of 7.80 instead of 8.00 on my winners so I never bet a 3-1 that winds up at 6/5 at the end.

I'm not sure what the math will be, but I think my point is clear enough.

[MJC922]

I tend to share this concern.

With only one bookmaker, the average price offered will probably not be especially attractive relative to the track prices. You may actually get worse prices long term as a trade-off for the advantage of at least knowing what you are getting beforehand.

The thinking may go like this.

I'm willing to take an average price of 7.80 instead of 8.00 on my winners so I never bet a 3-1 that winds up at 6/5 at the end.

I'm not sure what the math will be, but I think my point is clear enough.

We'll have to see but in a 1500 race sample of win bets when I can eliminate 40% of the horses I placed a bet on that turned into negative expectation wagers while the race was running it's going to make all the difference in the world to my bottom line.

There's no chance the slightly higher tote odds on winners can offset that. It changes the entire nature of a sample by a massive amount, that's 600 negative expectation horses you didn't bet on at all and perhaps 600 entirely different but overlaid horses in the same races that you ended up betting on. Not only do you eliminate underlays, you can bring in different horses to take their place.

If a players line is any good it's simple math, they'll win at least some money on their flat bets. It's another option and should be warmly welcomed. I'll start betting again at least on weekends to support it. When does it go-live?

[classhandicapper]

We'll have to see but in a 1500 race sample of win bets when I can eliminate 40% of the horses I placed a bet on that turned into negative expectation wagers while the race was running it's going to make all the difference in the world to my bottom line.

There's no chance the slightly higher tote odds on winners can offset that. It changes the entire nature of a sample by a massive amount, that's 600 negative expectation horses you didn't bet on at all and perhaps 600 entirely different but overlaid horses in the same races that you ended up betting on. Not only do you eliminate underlays, you can bring in different horses to take their place.

If a players line is any good it's simple math, they'll win at least some money on their flat bets. It's another option and should be warmly welcomed. I'll start betting again at least on weekends to support it. When does it go-live?

I don't track how many horses I bet that eventually go off at less than my minimum price. I generally use Will Pays to give me decent guess at what the final price will be and bake in enough margin of safety that even if the horse drops in price, I'm still getting an overlay.

For example, if I think the horse is worth 5/2, I typically don't bet it if he's 3-1 late in the betting unless it looks like he's going to drift up based on the Will Pays.

That's partly because I know he might drop below 5/2 and partly because after 45 years I'm not crazy enough to think my lines are so accurate I can take a super slim margin and be right enough.

Also, some of the horses I bet that do drop down still win. So even if they are small underlays, it's not like I'm getting buried on them.

I think the math will be different for everyone.