Simple Breeder's Cup Bet Strategy

[dav4463]

Throw out horses that have never run within 10 points of the Top Last Race Beyer horse.

All others are contenders.

Bet all horses at 14-1 or higher.

Would have shown a profit the last three years.

[NoDayJob]

Bet the three longest priced horses in the races for two year olds.

NDJ

[cj]

I'm pretty sure betting every horse in every Breeder's Cup race shows a profit, or maybe its every horse over certain odds.

I think the key is, play high odds horses!

[andicap]

Bet against every horse touted by Mike Battaglia and Bob Neumaier on NBC.

[Pace Cap'n]

Originally posted by cj
I'm pretty sure betting every horse in every Breeder's Cup race shows a profit, or maybe its every horse over certain odds.

I think the key is, play high odds horses!

Or both. Here's an article:

www.equidaily.com/bestbet/opinion/31028.html

[cj]

That's a nice site, checked out the home page as well, thanks for the tip.

[OTM Al]

At this level too, any horse that has not won a G1 (excluding 2yos) should be considered extremely suspect. I refer you to the hype around Speightstown in his last run. Great figs, but still no G1s.

The article is interesting, but I think more than anything its shows how big names, horses and trainers, are getting overbet. Any bigtime race like this eg KY Derby, is chock full of overlays.

[headhawg]

The statistics seem overwhelmingly in favor of playing price horses, and probably playing the exotics over straight win bets as well. As last year was the first time I played the BC, I have a couple of questions for the group:

1) Does pace affect these higher "class" races as much as it does a normal racing card? As OTL AL mentioned, does class perhaps win out here, or should we still handicap as normal? May pace affect certain races more than others?

2) Are there any peculiarities in the LS track surfaces themselves that may influence the outcome? Is a track model going to help with the BC? (I've never played LS.)

[betchatoo]

Despite the fact that there are so many great overlays in the Cup it may also be important to note that favorites have won 36.5% of races. That is higher than the norm for all races. So you don't need to be afraid to play any horse you really believe is a solid favorite. Just keep in mind that in this kind of field almost any horse can run in the money with the chalk. Some of the exotics featuring a favorite winning have been huge. The all button can be a good friend

[Valuist]

In my memory, the Juvenile Fillies has been chalky for the most part. And the Distaff also, when you get past One Dreamer and Adoration.

[dav4463]

$20 bet on all horses at 14-1 or higher.

Results

$900 bet $1514 returned

+ $614 profit.

[pmd62ndst]

I've been looking at that angle in my database and that is actually an excellent strategy for any Graded Stakes race, although I got the best results where odds were between 10-1 and 30-1.

PMD

[fmhealth]

Here's some data on ALL BC races run in the past 20 years.

1- If you bet ALL entries-----cost---$3,336

collect--$3,280
----------------
-$56.00 (-1.7%)

2- If you bet ALL horses with odds of 20-1 or greater

cost---$1,286

collect--$1,704
-------------
+$418.00 (+35%)

[schweitz]

I heard about this after I bombed out last year and told myself that I would do it this time---I didn't and bombed again. :o

[dav4463]

schweitz,

You aren't the only one, I made the original post and didn't follow my own strategy ! Luckily, I eked out a small profit thanks to Ghostzapper in the Classic, but a lot less stress could've been avoided by simply betting on all horses at 14-1 or higher .....

[maxwell]

This BC was EASY to make a huge profit !

Bet : 1.8 million ( all x 6 )

Pool : 4.6 million

Tax : 28% or so. 1.3 million

Profit : 3.3 million

Nothing to it ! :D