Figuring Pick 3 Odds

[sq764]

I was reading Quinn's book "On Track/Off Track" and was interested in his theory on figuring odds on his pick 3's..

He figured out each horses chance to win each race, then figured the chance of winning the pick 3 (then converted to odds)..

Does anyone use any calculations when trying to determine whether a pick 3 is playable?

[Overlay]

Personally, I figure the individual probability of each horse in each field (adjusted to a total field probability of 1.00), and then multiply the individual probabilities of the horses in each Pick-3 combination I am considering to determine the overall probability for the combination as a whole.

[Overlay]

I should have added that playability is another issue. That would require some idea of probable payoffs to determine if value is present.

[Lucky Maria]

I used to play Pick 3's a lot and in my own experience, the handicappers that figured the probabilities of each horse and used only their contenders did ok but suffered through long losing streaks and often didn't produce the way the numbers predicted they would.

My own approach when I started out was to have one or two races that I loved, where my single approached 50% win and my doubles approached 60%. When I first started out, I thought when three of these races lined up I was in Pick 3 heaven but it never seemed to work out. Instead, I found my way to success with the "all" button.

I stood the traditional theory of finding a single and stood it on its head. I instead looked for chaos races, where I truly hated the top two horses. The race where I really believed any horse could win and it would be at decent odds. [I shot for greater than 8-1 ml] Then I handicapped the races around it. I tried to come up with doubles on either side and narrow the field to four contenders. In my chaos race I would drop the two morning line favorites. I'd let them beat me.

I would play two tickets: Chaos x 2 picks x 4 picks and Chaos x 4 picks x 2 picks. This is a lot of tickets but I can't emphasize enough that what I was good at was identifying races where some crazy 0/18 maiden with a 2/112 jock was on his back would jump up and win at 40-1.

With any pick 3 strategy I would definitely recommend practicing on paper and keeping good records before trying it with real money.

Maria

[formula_2002]

After a million plays, the minimun standard deviation for a pick three probability should determined by thr following;

1/(odds+1)x (1-take-out) x (1+your % edge) in the first leg x


1/(odds+1)x (1-take-out) x (1+your % edge) in the second leg x


1/(odds+1)x (1-take-out) x (1+your % edge) in the third leg .

Thats why I play craps...

Probability of winning on the pass line is .493%, probibility of losing is .507% (plus I get a free room and meals)!!!!. :)
(and pay nothing for information)

Joe M

[kenwoodallpromos]

Craps as you listed odds is much simpler- if you want the house to have total control of each bet's probability.

[cj]

Originally posted by sq764
I was reading Quinn's book "On Track/Off Track" and was interested in his theory on figuring odds on his pick 3's..

He figured out each horses chance to win each race, then figured the chance of winning the pick 3 (then converted to odds)..

Does anyone use any calculations when trying to determine whether a pick 3 is playable?

It would be pretty easy to come up with methods to determine what pick 3s might pay, or should pay, but when you can't see the payoffs in advance, I don't see any value in the information.

Simple P3 rules I follow:

No more than one ML favorite on any ticket.
No odds on favorites in the first leg.
Key one horse in each race, one key must win to cash.

So, say I key the 1 in the first race, the 2 in the 2d race, and the 3 in the 3d race, and like the 1, 2, 3, and 4 as contenders in each race, I'd start like this:

1 with 1, 2, 3, 4 with 1, 2, 3, 4
1, 2, 3, 4 with 2 with 1, 2, 3, 4
1, 2, 3, 4 with 1, 2, 3, 4 with 3

But, before playing the tickets, I would eliminate any combination that had 2 or more ML favorites, and any combo with an odds on favorite in the first leg. Chances are, if I think an odds on favorite will win the first leg, I'm not playing the P3 anyway.

The advantage of this type bet is you eliminate a lot of low paying P3s and can cash up to three times.

The disadvantage is a contender can win each leg and you may not cash at all if at least one key horse doesn't win.

[rrbauer]

Ken Woodall wrote:
Craps as you listed odds is much simpler- if you want the house to have total control of each bet's probability.

Comment:
The probabilities in craps are a known quantity. Known to everyone. And, given the presence of fair dies and fair lies, they are absolute.

In horse racing, the probabilities that people use are mostly estimates; and, are usually subjective based upon individual interpretation of data. The opportunity for error in utilizing probability estimates as a substitute for population-based empirical evidence is huge.

Now, the questions here are how do we value P3 combinations; and, given those values how do we determine if we should make a play. The first question relies on some set of calculations that take into account how the public will be assessing the three races. A combination of how the first leg is being bet in the win pool plus the ML odds in the second and third leg can serve as the basis for each combinations value. Naturally, if there seems to be an error in the morning-line makers view of one of the buried legs, then you might make some adjustment to that. If you have good estimating skills where win odds are concerned, then go with your take on the downstream races.

Most of us are aware that favorites are hugely overbet in P3 pools as evidenced by the sparse payout "will pays" for the favorite combinations when they are alive entering the third leg. Hence, the advice to avoid favorite-dominated combinations is well grounded. At the same time, combinations consisting of non-favorites should receive a positive adjustment to their payoff estimate.

Most horseplayers do not keep records, so they are hard-pressed to identify their success rates in identifying contenders in different race types. Yet, it is that set of success rates, in any P3 race set, that will determine in the long run, whether, or not, a profitable playing strategy can be developed.

When the set of races in question fits your strengths and you know that over time you will hit the P3 from that race set, say 30% of the time, then you have the basis from which to evaluate the expected payoffs from the combinations that will be made up from your contender list; and, determine if a play is available that has positive financial expectations. In this case, you would want to get back more than 2.3 times your bet (.7 / .3) if one of your combinations is a winner. Usually, this approach will require that you bet varying amounts on different combinations (a "dutch" if you will) to achieve the required dollar return.

It's not easy, but it is "do-able". Two caveats gleaned from thousands of P3 plays:
1. Do not bet into small pools. They are unreliable where payoff estimates are concerned.
2. Do not put a price/value win bet proposition in the first leg at risk by stringing it out over two more races in P3 bets. Take the money now!

[formula_2002]

[i]Originally posted by rrbauer ken Woodall wrote:


Comment:
The probabilities in craps are a known quantity. Known to everyone. And, given the presence of fair dies and fair lies, they are absolute.....

1. Do not bet into small pools. They are unreliable where payoff estimates are concerned.
[/B]

THINK ABOUT THAT!

[Niko]

I agree with CJ on his approach. Not much to add other than some observations.
In the pick 3 if the favorite wins the first leg and a top 3 low-odds horse wins the second leg the pay-offs are lower than what I expect when a bomb hits the 3rd leg. If a favorite wins the first leg and a non-top 3 wins the 2nd and 3rd leg you can still get a good pay-off.
So look for a good priced horse in the first leg with only 1 favorite at the most winning the 2nd and 3rd leg or 2 long-shots winning the 2nd and 3rd legs.
I don't know but I'm guessing casual players spread a lot more or hit the all button in the 3rd leg because they want to cash the ticket no matter what if they win the first two legs or are going after a higher pay-out.
I also skip all pick 4's where I think one of the first 2 favorites will win the first 2 legs for the reasons above.

[sq764]

My favorite pick 3 ticket structures:

Chalk x Chalk x 3-5 bombs (Have caught $3-500 tickets with 2 chalks in there this way)

2-3 midprice x chalk x 2-3 midprice

2-3 bombs x chalk x chalk


I used to get into trouble by not including any chalk and trying for value in all 3 legs. I started to realize the likelihood of chalk missing in all 3 legs is statistically low, so I had to change my style..

[Valuist]

Which is more damaging, a favorite in the first leg or a favorite in the last leg? I think some players spread deeper in the early legs of P3s/P4s and look to single or go lighter in the final leg.

My own theory: if the horses are in the 2-1 to 12-1 range, look for the P3 to be about 1.5 times to double a parlay. Once you start getting heavy favorites or big longshots in, its anyone's guess.

[Niko]

I'd definately say a favorite in the first leg. Looking at pay-offs it looks like most will start a pick 3 with a strong favorite and go from there.
Maybe a database person can somehow verify this.