Beating the Races with a Computer

[highnote]

Has anyone ever used or heard of "Beating the Races with a Computer" by Stephen L. Brecher (Long Beach, CA: Software Supply, 1980)?

If so, what are your experiences and how can I obtain a copy.

Thanks,
John

[BillW]

John,

I'm not familiar with that text but anything written about computers 22 years ago would be severely outdated. 22 computer years is like 200 of our years (230 Cdn.!).

BillW

[highnote]

Bill,
You're probably right that it's outdated. It was referenced by Bill Benter of the Hong Kong Betting Syndicate in an academic paper. Benter is the guy who made over 50 million dollars betting in Hong Kong. He is still betting there.

It might have one or two useful ideas on factor modeling.

Regards,
John

[BillW]

john,

Yea, you could have a point!:)

[Dave Schwartz]

John,

I have a copy somewhere... but it is packed for our move to a new house in two weeks.

If you don't find it, contact me.

However, in my opinion the book will be without merit for someone of your caliber.

Dave

[Rick]

I used to have a copy of that book but lost it somewhere. It did have some interesting info on the best way to code variables such as days away and finish position, and it might be interesting to compare the weights of various factors he used in his regressions. The methods Benter used are more effective though.

[highnote]

Rick, Benter's methods are pretty sophisticated. I don't have the resources that he does. I read in Horseplayer that his team watches replays and rates the trips of each horse. A handicapping friend and I discussed that a few years ago. We also discussed paddock ratings. It was too labor/time intensive for us. If we would have had, say, $500,000 seed money we could have built a pretty good model.

I built a decent factor model a couple years ago, but didn't have internet wagering available like today. So it wasn't really practical. It also needed a lot of refining. It generated a good oddsline, but not good enough to make a profit. It was far better than random betting -- and it made an oddsline for every race where there were no first time starters. I think if I redid it I would start with one class of race and one distance. If you can't devise a model to beat a narrow segment then you probably can't devise a single model that will beat all races.

[highnote]

Dave,
Good luck with the move.

Thanks for the offer. I will let you know in a few weeks.

John

[sq764]

BillW, even though the computer language has changed over the years, wouldn't the basic handicapping concepts still apply?

Or do you feel that with all the new information available to the handicapper, that handicapping 22 years ago was much different?

Scott

[BillW]

Scott,

My initial thoughts were that in 1980, computers were so rare (I owned a programmable calculator with 1000 program instruction capability) that even the simplest handicapping algorithm (ones that we would laugh at today) would be highly successful. Remember, in 1980 solid state memory was not even common except in small microprocessor based systems (computers were still based on discrete processors, the uP had not evolved that far yet). One would have had to have access to a college or corporate machine to even pursue something like this)

Handicapping has changed a bit, but computers and their availability have changed immensely. Remember handicapping is not a game of information, but rather a game of the difference in information that you have vs. the public. If we had the calls of every horse precise and accurate to the millisecond, the game would be no different. The math would just be a bit harder for those of us using pencil and paper.

Bill W.

[Dave Schwartz]

BillW,

Actually, I was writing handicapping software for myself in 1978, the year I got my first Apple. In 1979 I switched to Commodore and made my living writing business software on Commodores until the C-64 came out about 3 1/2 years later. (That's when I switched to the IBM/Victor world.)

I know. "Who's Victor?"

Dave

[Rick]

swetyjohn,

It's interesting that Benter uses subjective ratings in his model. It seems like you would have to "rate the raters" and what do you do if somebody quits? The main thing is "whatever works". I think it's tough to get a big advantage in US races because be have such high quality information available to all at a reasonable price.

[highnote]

Rick,
Benter uses objective ratings, too.

I'm sure people quit, but I'm sure he pays them well while they're working for him. It ain't cheap living in Hong Kong.

It's definately tough to get an advantage in the U.S. Now that the U.S. betting market has become global it should be a big advantage if you're betting on your home field. I know of one U.K. bettor who bets big at Santa Anita. He's good, but I would think the locals have a big edge - especially paddock handicappers. In fact, there has probably never been a better time to be a paddock handicapper. The rest of the world is using speed figures and betting over the internet.

John

[BillW]

Dave,

Yes, I know it was possible in 1980 but I was thinking in terms of a year or two to develop something to write a book about and a year to write it and get it published. I think 1978 was the year the PET was introduced? Wow some old memories there!


Bill W.

[Dave Schwartz]

Actually, I never used a "PET." Rather, I used something called "CBM" which stood for "Commodore Business Machine."

It had 32k or RAM and a full size keyboard. (And no hard drive!)

Dave

[Rick]

My first horse racing database was on a Commodore 64 with software called Superbase. I typed in so much data my hands hurt all the time. The original case of carpal tunnel syndrome I guess.

[rrbauer]

Regarding the Brecher "book". It was coverless and printed on 8 1/2 x 11 sheets that were folded over and stapled in the middle.

As I recall, there wasn't much to it He had a bunch of multiple regression formulas in it and some other mumbo-jumbo.

I'm pretty sure that I've thrown it away (and, if I throw something away, it ain't much).

[Rick]

I had a later version that was a printed paperback, but not very high quality though. The idea of normalizing variables was the main thing I got out of that book. I thought he had way too many variables in his regression models, making it unlikely that his results would be repeatable. I think he claimed about 8% profit if I remember correctly, but maybe I'm thinking of Quirin's model (which definitely wouldn't work now).

[Tom]

Originally posted by Dave Schwartz
BillW,

Actually, I was writing handicapping software for myself in 1978, the year I got my first Apple. In 1979 I switched to Commodore and made my living writing business software on Commodores until the C-64 came out about 3 1/2 years later. (That's when I switched to the IBM/Victor world.)

I know. "Who's Victor?"

Dave

I have/had an old calculator-my first one- that only added and subtracted, no mutiplication or division. And it wasn't portable--you had to plug it in! Still, I thought that the golden age of electronics was starting (I was hopelessly trying to learn how to use a slide rule for something other than swordfighting in class, or launching that little slide part like an arrow!
And I had a little notebook in my pocket with all of Tom Ainsle's rules and plus factors written in it in pencil, and his pace charts copied in the back. Used that little calculator to make figures.
Seems funny that after all those years, the bigest change in racing just might be that NYRA finally uses colored saddle cloths!
~G~
Tom

[Rick]

Yeah, and I used punched cards the first few years I worked as a programmer. I wonder what the average age of people on this board is. My guess is that there are very few really young ones. I had a neighbor once when I was in my 20's that used to go around telling everyone that "nobody under thirty had an ounce of sense". That used to irritate everyone, since about 95% of the neighobors were under 30. As far as horse racing is concerned, in my case he was right. But I think these days a young guy could get pointed in the right direction and be successful earlier. I wish I'd had today's information and tools available when I was young. But then I'd also need some experience or a good teacher in order to use it effectively.

[Dave Schwartz]

Rick,

LOL - At the same time those people were saying "nobody under 30..." we were saying "Don't trust anyone over 30." Remember?

Now I wake up in the moring, look in the mirror and I see my father looking back at me! My father! When did that happen?


Tom,

One morning (around 1982 I think) the front page of the LA Times business section had an article that said, "Who will it be a year from now? IBM or Victor?"

I tell this story from time to time and everybody looks at me like I am nuts. They have no recollection of Victor ever existing.

Victor was the most advanced computer for its time. IBM had just released its first PC. Both supported CPM and MS-DOS.

IBM was selling brand new systems to developers for $1,500 each and financing for 12 months. Victor was literally giving them away. Guess which one I chose? (At the time an IBM with a 5mb hard disk was about $9k as I recall.)

So, I spent a year building a software program that was somewhat proprietery to the Victor and what I had upon completion was software with no computer to run on at all.

I shoulda known.


Dave

[Rick]

Dave,

Yeah, I'm a little over 30 myself. Do you remember the Osborne? They had a portable version running CP/M before anyone else. I think "portable" meant being able to move it without breaking your back though, nothing like what we have now of course.

[Dave Schwartz]

Osborne's were great! So was the "SOL." Remember that one?

Boy, do we sound like a couple of geezer's or what?

[highnote]

I was an 8-bit Atari guy myself -- 64K! When I upgraded from a tape cassette to an external floppy it was a red letter day. Then came the modem and bulletin boards!!

I wrote a blackjack simulation program that took up about all 64K. It took about a 1/2 to load from a tape cassette. Half the time the computer wouldn't read the tape. It was dreadful. When it worked it was a miracle.

Funny, in college, I barely passed Fortran, but would've gotten an A+ if they would have had a class on programming for betting games.

[gillenr]

My first was a Radio Shack color computer - 32kram I upped to 64 & added dual, double-sided 51/4" floppies(for $500). Used VIPCALC & d/l from Bris at 600bps.
Now I complain about 28.8!

[highnote]

The first home computer I ever saw was a Radio Shack model. It was very cool back then. The killer app was Chess.

[BillW]

Bringing back memories.

Our R&D VP sprung for a PET just to look at it. We were involved in 8085 development at the time (remember PL/M!). I can still remember the sensation that I felt when I first saw it. Even though I'd been around microcomputers (Intel Dev systems) I'd never seen one that you could take home :)

Bill

[Rick]

Dave,

I don't know about SOL as it applies to computers but I do know how it applies to life!

[anotherdave]

I had a Timex-Sinclair. Does anyone remember those? I did very simple programs on it. Anyone remember those?

AD

[Lefty]

Timex-Sinclair, bght one those many yrs ago on a tv shopping network for about $53.00. I ran an early Sartin fps tape on it.
Seems so long ago.

[highnote]

I've heard of the Timex-Sinclair, but never seen or used one. I think I read about them in some Sartin books or manuals. I seem to recall some of the early Sartin work was done on them.

[GameTheory]

Ok,

I've got you all beat. I started programming on an Atari. Not an Atari computer, but the original Atari GAME SYSTEM. They had a cartridge called "BASIC PROGRAMMING", and you had to buy the special keypad controller (for $35) so you could type in letters & numbers....

[PaceAdvantage]

I always wanted the Basic Programming cartridge for the Atari game system, but for some reason, I never got my parents to spring for it. I remember at the time...my dream was to copy the BASIC code for the Star Trek game I had in my BASIC GAMES book into the Atari BASIC programming cartridge.....

My dad moved us up for a very brief time to the Timex Sinclair (he then returned it since it was fairly useless)....

Fortunately, my parents had grander things in mind, and I moved up to a TI 99/4A (REMEMBER THAT ONE....think Bill Cosby)....then to an Atari 800XL...then a Tandy 8mhz 8086 machine...then a used Compaq which was much faster...then I bought with my own money a Micron PC....and then I moved onto building them myself....

Ahhhh, to be a kid again!!! LOL


==PA

[BillW]

The first computer I ever programmed on was an Intel 4040 system breadboarded on a piece of plywood. It had 512 bytes of RAM and a hex keypad for entry in machine language. It was in a college class on uP's.

Believe me, it built character :)

Bill

[ranchwest]

I got so heavily involved with the TI-99/4A that I started writing an international newsletter for it. I also wrote handicapping code to split fractions and compare delta values.

In college and my first job, we used punch cards. When I started computer classes, we had to use a keypunch machine that had nothing on the keys and printed no characters on the cards, so that we had to know the keyboard and be able to read the holes in the cards. Until we mastered that, we couldn't move on to a machine with characters.

Then, before that, it was the abacus.... just kidding.

[GR1@HTR]

My dad bought me a TI99/4A when I was 11 years old. Didn't know how to use it but the Football game and Wompass Bat game were cool...Think there was also a Texas Tubleweed game or something like that. Honestly, I think that is where my love for horse racing first started....I was just a stats and numbers freak as a kid that I would just play the football game so I could log stats of what my QB, RB and WR were doing. Then in Jr High the highlight of my day was to get up in the morning and run out and get the newspaper so I could read the box scores in the sport section. Then came fantasy football, baseball and basketball...Now I've migrated on to the horse racing rubbish...

[Dave Schwartz]

GR1,

Off track a bit, but since we're reminiscing...

I was way older than you when I got my first computer (age 27). 1978, so I did not experience it as a kid.

Nevertheless, your story reminds me of me. My Dad and I used to bet ten cents per game on baseball everyday during the baseball season. He used to let me pick ALL the teams. That went away quickly when he discovered that I understood win percentages. Amazing how fast the money builds up when you win 5-out-of-8 consistently.

Although I was raised in Florida, my Dad had a gambling house in Niagra Falls at one time. I was brought up with a deck of cards in one hand and a pair of dice in the other. I remember tackling the math at roulette when I was in the third grade. (Discovering that "chasing the money" at roulette did not work was my first gambling disappointment, I think.)

Later I moved on to craps and, eventually, blackjack. Dealt my first professional blackjack game at 15. LOL- I might be the only kid from my neighborhood that worked his way through high school dealing blackjack.

Dave

[GR1@HTR]

Good story Dave. That kinda reminds me of a movie called Boiler Room where this college guy runs an underground casino.

[bigray76]

Gee I think most of these computers beat my old Commodore Vic 20, with the cassette tape in lieu of a disk. I remember programming in those programs in the back of the magazines, and I do remember putting one in that was to the effect of 'horse racing'. Basically you picked a horse, and it randomly told you whether you won or not. Real high-tech for me as an 8 year old.

[Dave Schwartz]

BigRay,

You were eight then? EIGHT?

I have grandchildren older than that!


Dave

[Dick Schmidt]

Dave,

Hell, you have socks older than that! Trust me, folks, I've been in his house, it's true!

Dick

[highnote]

Although I was raised in Florida,

Dave,
I was looking at old threads and came across this one.

Just curious... how did you get to Nevada from Florida. Do you miss the ocean and the weather?
John

[timtam]

I bought a handicapping program for my TI 99 I even bought a setup where

I could download the data with a cassette player . After I spent about an

hour entering data for one race I used to cross my fingers that when I went

to run the program I would hear that noise which meant the information

was going to the screen. I remember it did fairly well on 6 furlong sprints

I don't remember the program name anymore but it was featured in the

Daily Racing form and was the only reason I bought the TI despite

Bill Cosby.

[formula_2002]

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0960379207/qid=1136422419/sr=8-1/ref=sr_8_xs_ap_i1_xgl14/002-4360280-6624855?n=507846&s=books&v=glance