andicap
10-13-2004, 10:45 AM
I've been hitting a lot of place bets lately by looking for longshot closers in races with either a highly contentious pace scenario (even if the speed wins, the other speed fades), or a weak one (all the early horses suck wind.).
I try to be patient and not force it. The closers must have
a) top closing time in the field among the P and S horses. I don't want to compete against other strong closers. Horses generally have good turn times too.
b) good form cycle.
c) consistent record as a lot of them seem to have. Dont want to see a lot of gaps in the PPs but don't want them overraced either. (This time of year I love fresh horses)
d) not be TOO deep a closer. These plodders seem to be more super or tri fillers.
e) not on the turf where traffic jams will kill you unless I can get a real big price, but that doesn't happen much because everyone looks for closers on the grass.
f) if possible, tracks where speed isn't holding. Stay away from strongly speed biased tracks where horses can go 1-2 around the course.
Been especially effective where I can scope out a vulnerable favorite so the place price is inflated.
Won't play in race with very strong /legit favorite unless the exacta odds are decent. (a 6-5/14-1 exacta paid $75 in an 8 horse field a while ago for me.)
Why not play exactas? Occasionally I do, but trying to keep it simple for now and go for consistency over scores.
After I have a lot more plays under my belt I'll check to see if exacta/tri betting is called for but for now at these prices I can be right 1 out of 3 times and still be ahead.
Anyone else doing this?
I try to be patient and not force it. The closers must have
a) top closing time in the field among the P and S horses. I don't want to compete against other strong closers. Horses generally have good turn times too.
b) good form cycle.
c) consistent record as a lot of them seem to have. Dont want to see a lot of gaps in the PPs but don't want them overraced either. (This time of year I love fresh horses)
d) not be TOO deep a closer. These plodders seem to be more super or tri fillers.
e) not on the turf where traffic jams will kill you unless I can get a real big price, but that doesn't happen much because everyone looks for closers on the grass.
f) if possible, tracks where speed isn't holding. Stay away from strongly speed biased tracks where horses can go 1-2 around the course.
Been especially effective where I can scope out a vulnerable favorite so the place price is inflated.
Won't play in race with very strong /legit favorite unless the exacta odds are decent. (a 6-5/14-1 exacta paid $75 in an 8 horse field a while ago for me.)
Why not play exactas? Occasionally I do, but trying to keep it simple for now and go for consistency over scores.
After I have a lot more plays under my belt I'll check to see if exacta/tri betting is called for but for now at these prices I can be right 1 out of 3 times and still be ahead.
Anyone else doing this?