Another Beyer anomaly?

[JPinMaryland]

Here's one a don't get: Last weekend at SA; PT's Grey Eagle runs 1:08.8 in the 6f Ancient Title. Beyer: 102.

At KEE; Champ Ali runs 1:08.7 in the 6f Phoenix and Beyer score: 112.

Okay I understand SA track is faster than KEE, okay sure. But here's what I dont get. In SA there's one horse about a length from PT at the finish. At KEE, there are 4 horses about one length off the winner. One guy is 1/2 the other 3 are just over one length.

Running a 112 should put a horse at the far end of the bell curve, I find it hard to believe there are 4 other horses at KEE who are also at the far end of the bell curve. Its hard to believe KEE has 5 superhorses running 110+ in one race....

Comments???

[Valuist]

The Kee field was much stronger, no question about it. You had horses shipping in from everywhere. I don't know what grade the Ancient Title is, but if its a Grade 1, its a fraud.

[JPinMaryland]

It's actually a grade I, if I recall correctly. The times do run faster in SA.

But the times at KEE were pretty fast on 10/8 and actually compare pretty well to SA on the 10th. in SA an ALW for 2 yr, 6 1/2 f went of 1:17 4/5. at KEE ALW NW2, 6f 1:10 4/5.

22k CLM in the first race at SA, compared to 12k CLM in 2nd at KEE, times compare pretty well 1:46.3 (1 1/16) vs 1:53 (1 1/4).

Maybe you just get more for your money w/ a 12k claimer in KY?

[NoDayJob]

Originally posted by JPinMaryland
It's actually a grade I, if I recall correctly.


Ancient Title Breeders' Cup Handicap $250,000 Guaranteed (Grade I) (Includes $50,000 from the Breeders' Cup Fund) A HANDICAP FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD

NDJ

[midnight]

Beyer figures are very subjective in nature. That's one of the reasons I don't use them (another is the fact that they're widely available).

[the little guy]

Originally posted by midnight
Beyer figures are very subjective in nature. That's one of the reasons I don't use them (another is the fact that they're widely available). What's interesting is that while it would be fair to say that ALL handicapping is subjective ( in fact even " very subjective " ) it would also be fair to say that Beyer Figs, or any legitimate speed figures, are the least subjective.

[cj]

Most times, I don't find Beyer figures to be subjective at all. 95% of the time, all the races at the same distance structure use the same variant. I do, and I know a few other guys here as well, look for those other 5% with each issue of Simulcast Weekly. There is gold in them thar hills....

[Valuist]

I have an idea why Keeneland numbers sometimes seem to be on the high side: its the terrible quality of the claiming races. Every meet, Kee has excellent Mdn, allowance and stakes races yet their claiming fields are almost always subpar, usually littered with NW2 types and when making figures, most figure makers look to the races for older claimers as a starting point. Last week, Kee carded a $25000 claiming race for older F & M. Every single horse could've qualified for a NW4 condition, and 2 of the entries could've qualified for a NW2 claimer.

Today they have a 25000 claimer for older males. Exactly one horse topped an 80 Beyer on the main track in their last race. Contrast that to the 25000 claimer on turf that Hawthorne has carded today: 6 had topped an 80 Beyer in their last turf race. No comparison what field is stronger.

When Churchill opens, I will play against these Kee claiming winners, preferring to take horses who've run in claimers at TP, Haw, LaD or Bel.

[JPinMaryland]

Do the Beyers use just the numbers from the day of the race or do they use more days than that? Like some sort of par value for a particular track.

[Valuist]

More evidence that their claiming races are garbage: today's third. An open 15,000 claimer.

Before scratches, Rubiano Lad, Crystal Archer, Elwa and Commander Robin would all be eligible for NW3 claiming. Wild Jim would be eligible for a NW2 claimer.