Saturday, 4/28/01

[Tom]

Here are horses for Staurday, 4/28....

Beu R2, #7 Tuka Dan
GS R3, #8 Copper Canyon
PIM R9, #8 Colstar
WO R9, #4 Tricky Hearts
BM R4, #4 Lynn's Agenda
TDN R14, #9 Tuff's Dandy
HOL R5, #8 Lucretia
Tup R5, #5 Thatoldblackmagic
Mnr R1, #5 Sweet Ride
Hol R8, #1 Irsiheyesareflying

These are horses with a 1o+ point advantage in BRIS
Prime Power ratings. I tried a free sampel today of their
new PP reports. It look preety good-you can do a single track and get a program with PP ratings, or you can put in a serach criteria, like all horse with a 3 point edge in PP, or 10 points, or whatever, then print out by track or by post time.
I'll post result later today.
Tom

[Tom]

Bad day for BRIS Prime Power.....
Found 10 horses wiht a 10+ point advantage
and only got two winners.


Trk R# Prog# Horse Finish Win Pay Place Pay
Beu R2 #7 Tuka Dan 3rd
GS R3 #8 Copper Canyon Out
PIM R9 #8 Colstar Won $3.40 $2.80
WO R9 #4 Tricky Hearts 3rd
BM R4 #4 Lynn's Agenda Out
TDN R14 #9 Tuff's Dandy Won $3.20 $2.40
HOL R5 #8 Lucretia Out
Tup R5 #5 Thatoldblackmagic Out
Mnr R1 #5 Sweet Ride Out
Hol R8 #1 Irsiheyesareflying Out
Total Ret $6.60 $5.20
Less Bet $20.00 $20.00
Profit -$13.40 -$14.80

[Tuffmug]

Betting on a single factor like a 10 point edge in prime power is suicide! Other factors must be considered.

Look at HOL races.

In fifth, Lucretia was best of what had already run, but there were some monster first and second starters in this race. Compare workouts and you will see that Lucretia had no chance.


In eigth, Irisheyesareflying had never gone the distance on turf and final fraction in her lone turf route at 1 3/8 was not impressive. Appears better on dirt than turf. Also note only one 4f work in slow time (poor prep for a turf marathon and indicator horse was tired from last race). This was a vulnerable favorite!

[GR1@HTR]

That is an impressive claim that BRIS makes w/ 10pt Prime Power advantage(40% to 45% winners?). I don't really doubt the claim but can anybody w/ a database verify it?
Thanks,

[Tom]

I only posted as a snapshot of how this highly touted number would perform-it was a free download, so I didn't feel like I was stealing anything from them.
I also downloaded all horses with a three point advantage, but i haven't looked at all the results yet.
I would like to see how this so called 40-45% hit rate breaks down-ie, maiden vs non-maiden, sprint vs route, turf vs dirt......
I'll post how the 3 point horse did later in the week- I need time to go ver the list of horse-there were two pages full of them.

Just some fun-if I want to committ suicide at the track, I
am quite able to do it quickly enough with my own picks.

Tom

[smf]

I agree that Prime pwr is useful given the right circumstances. On my index cards for claims, I denote the prime pwr # on the card next to the other data for a particular race. This at least gives me a frame of reference of ability when I review a trainers claims that run back.

Surprisingly or not, most (claimed) winners do come from the top or 2nd rated runner.

The prime pwr #'s are terrible for msw/ n1x turfers (here) though, for all the obvious reasons.