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View Full Version : Saratoga: Friday, July 12, 2019


Teach
07-12-2019, 08:56 AM
Race One:

In this 20k maiden-claiming route-opener, I’ve landed on :2: Legion Storm. This Kiaran McLaughlin-trainee is dropping as fast as wet leaves on a windy autumn day. It’s the limbo. “How low can you go?” I gotta believe there’s residual moisture (I’m believe the track should be drying out during the day; yet I recently heard that more showers are possible). Anyway, this 4-year old gelding has wet-track pedigree written all over him, both “up” and “down”. This Roman Ruler-bred demonstrated he can “go the distance” by finishing 2nd at a mile in a ‘teenth in a race that was taken off the turf. Luis Saez reprises the ride. Others: :3:, :1:, :8:. (I’m eschewing the :5: French Revolution. Either I’m a thoroughbred prognosticating savant or I’m abuelo loco).

Race Two:

I’m going to take a shot with “the new kid on the block,” at least for The Spa. I’m talking about Chris Landeros (I believe “The Mig” has his book) who ships his tack up from GP to compete with some of the same jockeys he faced down in Florida over the winter. You may have deduced that my pick in the 2nd half of the early double is the medium-longshot, 12 Saltking. This Animal Kingdom (Leroidesanimaux (BRZ)-bred has a solid turf pedigree. This Midshipman-bred colt narrowly missed breaking his maiden in his last race at a mile on the turf down in Hallandale. This colt’s trainer is the most capable “Buckeye,” Mark Hennig. If this 3-year old is reasonably ready, he’s capable of prevailing. Others: :2:, :6:, :7:. If for some reason this race ends up on the dirt, I’m picking :13: Daddy Knows.

Race Three:

We stay on the lawn, probably yielding or soft, at a mile and a ‘teenth. In my opinion it’s the duo of "Chad and Irad". That trainer, Chad Brown, and the jockey, Irad Ortiz, Jr. Thus, my selection is :3: Complicit. I believe this Blame-bred mare can get all the enchiladas. This Arch-bred 5-year old should be thoroughly rested after being en vacaciones since last fall. Yet, I do declare that this mare’s morning works have been mediocre. However, I still believe she can prevail. Others: :4:, :5:, :6: If the race comes off the turf, the two M.T.O’s, :2: and :1:.

Race Four:

We’re back on the main at 7 panels. My choice: :3: Soul P Say. This Soldat-bred bay gelding is turning back over one furlong off his last 5th place finish at Oaklawn Park; that cutback could make all the difference in the world. The very capable conditioner, Robertino “Beto” Diodoro, trains this War Front bred. Look for this 4-year old to be out and going when the gates unlatch; he’ll be playing catch-me-if-you-can. Irad Ortiz, Jr. has the call. Others: :9:, :8:, :7:.

Race Five:

My choice in MSW sprint is :2: Good Shabbos (How appropriate). This Jeremiah Englehart trainee just missed breaking her maiden at 4 and ½ panels at Monmouth about six weeks ago. I don’t believe the one furlong stretch-out should pose any problems. Yes, she was beaten by weaker in her last, but she does have the services of one of the best “gate-jockeys,” on the NYRA circuit, Luis Saez. The Panamaniam-born Saez should have this Munnings-bred on or near the lead. I suppose a possible “fly in the ointment” is the fact that Jeremiah Englehart is only 11% with horses making their 2nd career start under his tutelage. If the track retains any residual moisture, this filly moves up. Finally, this filly’s broodmare, Island Time, produced 2 winners and 1 stakes winner from 3 starters. Others: :6:, :1:, :5:

Race Six:

Before you say, “Tu sei pazzo,” hear me out. Yes, admittedly, this selection is: “Off-the-wall”. Yet, if he pops… Budda Bing! Let me state my case. May it please the thoroughbred handicapping public. Oyez! Oyez! Oyez! If you will, glim the lines of :5: Holiday Bonus. Go down three lines to a race at Belmont earlier this year on May 16. A 10-panels turf route on a yielding surface. Jockey Ruben Silvera has this Harlan’s Holiday bred on the lead as the field turns into the lane. Yes, he faded to 4th. But today’s race-distance is nearly two panels less. One thing’s for sure, this Harlan-bred should go off "at a price". Worth a bob or two. You bet your dupa! The man from Zydeco Country, “The Louisiana Kid,” Kendrick Carmouche, is in the irons for trainer Greg DiPrima. Others: :4:, :7:, :9:

Race Seven:

My choice in this turf sprint (assuming it stays on the lawn) is 7 Tzipi. This City Zip-bred filly broke her maiden in her last at Aqueduct in mid-April. This 3-year old chestnut has the services of one of the top trainers on the NYRA circuit, Linda Rice. Rice does particularly well with horses who broke their maiden in their last race. Yet, in all candor, this filly’s morning work tab has been modest. Yet, I believe if this Rizzi-bred filly is reasonably ready, she can win. Oh, I should mention that her broodmare, Ahvee’s Destiny, had 2 winners from 3 starters and 1 turf winner. Junior Alvarado is in the irons. Others: 6, 8, 9.

Race Eight:

My choice in this 9-panels starter allowance is 6 Doups Point. Under the heading of: “When you’re hot you’re hot…” Joe-el Rosario got off to a splendid start on opening day at the Spa. If “El Dominicano” can keep that momentum going…? Yet, I should note that his Point of Entry-bred charge, has, by far and large, preferred to play the role of “best man,” as opposed to “taking his vows”. Thus, he’s had only one win and 5 second-place finishes. He must get “off the schneid”. Monsieur Christophe Clement is this Dynaformer-bred’s trainer. Clement does particularly well with both beaten favorites and 3rd start off a layoff (I like that angle) horses. If the race should come off the grass, this colt is still “a player”. Others: :5:, :2:, :3:

Race Nine:

I suppose if any one race stays on the turf it will be the Grade III Forbidden Apple. I’m going with :7: Voodoo Song. This English Channel-bred is 3 for 5, lifetime, at this 8-panels distance. This 5-year old horse’s jinete is Jose Lezcano. Lezcano is likely going to put this horse on the lead; he’ll then try to play Billy Joel’s “Lullabye” with the rest of the field. If successful, he and his mount get their picture taken in the Spa’s winner’s circle. Yes, as Billy Joel would croon, this horse has been away from the races “…for the longest time.” Yet, this Smart Strike-bred’s trainer, Linda Rice, does very well with horses that have been on the shelf. Others: :8:, :6:, :4:

Race Ten:

In the finale, a state-bred turf sprint (assuming it stays on the grass), my pick is: :6: Linda’s Ballet. This Linda Rice-trainee gets “a mulligan” on her last start, a race taken off the turf and run on the main. The filly stumbled badly in that one and finished up the track. But, alack and alas, she’s back on the grass, or at least we believe. If the race remains on the fescue, this gal’s definitely “a player”. I should cite that the aforementioned Rice has an outstanding record when dropping horses from MSWs into “the selling ranks”. I guess my only concern is that there have been no published works since this filly’s last race a little less than one month ago. Jose Ortiz reprises the ride. Others: :2:, :11:, :13: AE.

Teach
07-12-2019, 11:06 AM
Race Two:

Now that the 2nd Race is off the turf and will now be run on the main at 9 panels, I'm re-affirming my choice of :13: Daddy Knows as my top pick. Jose Lezcano is in the irons for trainer Linda Rice. Others: :1a:, :7:, :11:

Teach
07-12-2019, 11:12 AM
Race Six:

Race Six is also off the turf and will be run on the main at 9 panels. I'm now picking the entry, :1:/:1a:, Felix in Fabula and Curlin Road. Others: :6:, :3:, :2:

Teach
07-12-2019, 11:17 AM
Race Seven:

At 5 and 1/2 furlongs on the main: :9: - :15: - :16: - :13:

Teach
07-12-2019, 11:22 AM
Race Ten:

On the main at 5 and 1/2 furlongs: :15: - :8: - :2: - :3:

Saratoga_Mike
07-12-2019, 01:01 PM
Sar R1 - weak field - par is 71 - can any even run that? Taking a small shot with :3:, as he was beat by a really nice horse in his lone dirt start (yes, two years ago). I assume the last start should serve as a tightener, and Carmouche will send today.

Saratoga_Mike
07-12-2019, 01:11 PM
Big-time gapped field at finish - could indicate a speed bias, too early to know obviously

Saratoga_Mike
07-12-2019, 01:27 PM
Sar R2 - :13: No value, but looks much the best (only MTO horse and Rice adds blinkers--35% winning move for her).

Saratoga_Mike
07-12-2019, 01:57 PM
Sar R3 :5:

Expect decent pace. :3: and :5: are the closers. Brown horse looks overbet and :5: sets up well after last 10 fur race.