Friday Night: Meadowlands Cup contest

[The_Knight_Sky]

The beasts of the east will congregate in East Rutherford, NJ
for the last major prep for the Handicap Division.

Those who didn't go in the JC Gold Cup are here and
the winner of this should punch himself a ticket to Lone Star Park on October 30th.
Does anyone have opinions on how the race will likely be run ?

7TH RACE MED OCTOBER 8TH - Win, Place and Show Exacta, Trifecta and $1
========================== Superfecta Racing Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9)

1 1/8 MILES DIRT; MEADOWLANDS BREEDERS' CUP S.; PURSE $500,000;
FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD.

# HORSE NAME ML JOCKEY WT TRAINER MED EQP
-- ---------- -- ------ -- ------- --- ---
1 TOCCET 9/2 CHAVEZ J F 119 FRANKEL R J L
2 DYNEVER 8/5 NAKATANI C S 119 CLEMENT C L
3 UNFORGETTABLE MAX 6/1 BLACK A S 119 PRECIADO G L
4 LUSTY LATIN 20/1 FOGELSONGER R 121 SHUMAN M L
5 LION TAMER 7/2 COA E 119 PLETCHER T A L
6 BALTO STAR 8/1 VELAZQUEZ J R 123 PLETCHER T A L
7 GYGISTAR 5/1 BRAVO J 119 HENNIG M A L
8 SEEK GOLD 15/1 VELASQUEZ C H 119 ZITO N P LCLICK: PA guys are most welcome to play with $100 cyberdollarshttp://members.aol.com/browrob549/emo/signs003.gif (http://thoroughbredchampions.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=5)

[The_Knight_Sky]

Here is the link to BRIS past performances:

http://www.brisnet.com/affiliate/HTML/467frame.html


The race should be run on a fast track.
The forecast calls for partly cloudy skies - 60 degrees.
The metro area showers should hold off until after midnight.

That being said, how much front end pressure is Toccet likely to give Balto Star ?
I don't think Balto is in a position to wire this one.
Balto will have to rate kindly just off the pace to win it.

If Pletcher/ Velazquez are planning on a wire job,
I think they're miscalculating Toccet as he's capable some serious
pressure from the rail.

So, I'm going to sleep tonight with two possibilities: Toccet and Gygistar.
Team Pletcher's uncoupled Lion Tamer seems underlaid at 7/2 ML
while Gygistar should be a decent price.

Dynever has no business being the 8/5 favorite here.
Dynever should run well but Mr. Clement is likely using this as a prep
for the Lone Star surface he's already won over.
He's a pass for me on Friday, in what is a contentious field.
A field where 4 horses could win without eliciting much of a surprise.
What about you guys ? http://www.hoc-board.de/phpBB2/smilies/gemein/mwink.gif

[Bubbles]

How I see it:

There are a few sprinters stretching out, and they probably won't do so successfully, so that eliminates Lion Tamer and Gygistar (He was at his best sprinting). Toccet and Dynever both haven't won in a while, and that scares me off.

I'll have to go with Balto Star. Johnny Vee comes in to ride, and he's top-class on both turf and dirt. The sprinters probably won't handle the distance, and Balto should be right there to pick up the pieces. To complete the exotics, I'll use Unforgettable Max, Lusty Latin, and Seek Gold. All three are live.

[KirisClown]

If the Dynever of old shows up, he should win this race. But, there are more questions then answers surrounding him right now. I need to see something from him before I back him again.

I'd take a shot with GYGISTAR. he certainly wasnt disgraced in his last few races. He's worth one more try...

[IRISHLADSTABLE]

Kirs ,
Welcome to the board.

Jimmy

[The_Knight_Sky]

Originally posted by Bubbles
There are a few sprinters stretching out,
and they probably won't do so successfully,
so that eliminates Lion Tamer and Gygistar
(He was at his best sprinting). [

Hey there Bubbles - not so fast on the sprinters. :)
Especially a Hennig stakes shipper going at the Big M.
They tend to run very well.

But don't take my word for it.
Jim Mazur's Meadowlands Handicapper 2004 has the last 3 years
worth of meet-specific stats and Mr. Hennig is at break-even
in the flat bet department while winning at a 30% + rate.

Mark Hennig means business when shipping to East Rutherford.
See Eddington last weekend in The Pegasus. Another solid effort.

[The_Knight_Sky]

Kiris - you're defecting to this board now ? :D j/k

________________________________________

It's okay.
We're all one big handicapping family anyhow.

I see a handful of PA guys are playing the Meadowlands contest
tonight. You must have a thing for night-time signals. ;)

You're all invited to play along with us:
http://thoroughbredchampions.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=23018

[Zaf]

$60 win # 3 Unforgetable Max

$20 Exacta 3-2

$10 Exacta Box 3-7

ZAFONIC

[KirisClown]

Originally posted by IRISHLADSTABLE
Kirs ,
Welcome to the board.

Jimmy

Thanks Jimmy

[KirisClown]

Originally posted by The_Knight_Sky
Kiris - you're defecting to this board now ? :D j/k

________________________________________

It's okay.
We're all one big handicapping family anyhow.

I see a handful of PA guys are playing the Meadowlands contest
tonight. You must have a thing for night-time signals.

Im all over the place :D Looks like an interesting race tonite. Something to look forward to while I cap the saturday cards...

[Jinxed]

I'll go with the longshot Seek Gold, because I see a lot of flaws in the others both in distance and ability. This one could be a sleeper.:)

[The_Knight_Sky]

The changes are up for the Friday evening Big M card.

At this time there are no scratches or jock changes
for the featured 7th race - The Meadowlands Breeders Cup stakes.

The more I look at the past performances, I can't help
but feel that the only reason Balto Star is entered here
is to serve as a rabbit for uncoupled entry-mate Lion Tamer.
That should help those in the garden spot and that would mean
Dynever will likely hug the rail on the first turn should Toccet get urged towards the pace.
In that scenario, Dynever just HAS to win to justify an attempt at the WTC Classic.

A lot of ways this race may pan out.
I'll be glued to the HRTV for this one.
The Big M webcast is also available for those interested.

[Bubbles]

Balto Star-Dynever-Gygistar.

Balto ran a decent race, but if they run him in the Classic, they're making a grave mistake. Dynever ran one of those deceptive races. The pace was moderately quick, and because of his latest near-miss, he'll be overbet at Lone Star.

[Rico8812]

dynever is a pig.

Reminds me of dollar bill.

[Bubbles]

He IS a pig, but after failing to catch my top pick, he's a SACRED pig! :D

[KirisClown]

If Dynever could not catch Balto Star, he is through as a serious graded dirt horse.

Time to test him on turf.

[The_Knight_Sky]

Alright people - the contest results are in.

The winner was Azeri (a mutuel clerk at Canterbury Park).
The runner up was Red Knave from Pace Advantage.

CLICK: CYBERBUCK$ leader board http://www.hoc-board.de/phpBB2/smilies/sonstige/up.gif (http://thoroughbredchampions.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=302438#302438)

More fun tomorrow with The Champagne and Lane's End Futurity.

Also the Six Shooter contest, where you post analysis of your best bet of the weekend.
The Prize is Crushing The Cup 2004 or The Meadowlands Handicapper 2004. Take your pick.

[The_Knight_Sky]

Originally posted by Bubbles

Balto Star-Dynever-Gygistar.

Balto ran a decent race, but if they run him in the Classic,
they're making a grave mistake.
Dynever ran one of those deceptive races.
The pace was moderately quick, and because of his latest near-miss,
he'll be overbet at Lone Star.

Agreed.
Much will be made about how the extra yardage of The Classic will suit
Dynever along with his affinity of the Lone Star Park surface.

Unlike Pleasantly Perfect who now finds himself in the thick of things
down the backstretch in his recent races,
Dynever continues to lag towards the rear in his own races.
It's a shame that we won't get to see him on the grass for a while (if ever).

DYNEVER: by Dynaformer (Roberto) out of Flamboyance (Zilzal)


On the other hand Balto Star surprised me with his extremely kind rating tactics.
The Turf -to-dirt angle strikes again in this race.
Who remembers Great Normand paying $300+ to win in this race
doing that switcheroo in 1989 ?

[cj]

What affinity for Lone Star? Is this because he won a G3 stake there at 1-5?

Like you, I was surprised at BS's rating tactics. Must have learned that rating ability racing on the turf, should make him an even better dirt horse in the future.