stat's

[BIG HIT]

Hi guy's over the year's in handicapping as you guy's know stat's like. #1 top 4 m\l favorite win 80% of race's
#2Horse's with in 2 length's of lead win 80%
#3Horse 5 to1 or less win 80%
#4Top 3 fig last race win 80%
#5Horse in the money one of last 2 race 50%
These are just some that come to mind the % is for winthe question isdo you guy's agree with above statement's.Have to say up front i would say i would agree with#1 as this could be more then 4 horse's and also agree with #3 as on a average day there are at least to race's pay$14.00 or more.What do you guy's think.?

[Valuist]

I would say number 1 depends on the track. Probably true in New York, where the m/l is usually good. I would disagree on several tracks, where the linemaker seems to pull numbers out of the air.

Number 2: is that at the stretch call or after the first call? I say no way its 80% after the first call. Again, depends on the track.

Number 4: Maybe but I still think 80% is on the high side.

I'm not a real big believer in generalities;

[kenwoodallpromos]

#2 will not be true on non- Magna tracks or on most turf tracks.
#5 will not be true for named races (stakes and handicap races).
______
As for the other times and other #'s- If true 80%, then any horse with 3 to 5 tote odds or greater will give you a profit. Good luck.

[BIG HIT]

Just wonder how other's felt about them in general.Thank's for both your comment's.You both have had some great thread's on this board inpast and look forward to them in future.

[hurrikane]

120,000 races - all tracks - all races

#1 - 79.88%

#2 - 68.78% - (first call and the ROI is through the roof)

#3 - 70.65%

#4 - 63.32% (these are cramer number. I also weeded out FTS winners that obviously don't have a last time out number..though you didn't mention this in your stats)

#5 - this will take a little work for me to test but it looks a little high to me.


#2 will not be true on non- Magna tracks or on most turf tracks


Non - Magna 70.23. Actually higher.
Turf - 56% (all dist and surf and trk) - you can make money with this stat..most early runners are overlays on turf.

[hurrikane]

Big Hit,

I would be careful about what you read up here...a lot of people make this crap up as they go along

[BIG HIT]

MR.H Thank's for your time and trouble that very interesting.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Looks like Hurrikane has the stats to prove the 80% you asked about is a little high. If 56% is close enough to 80% then I am full of crap like Hur wants to believe.
I did not answer about ROI because I had no idea on that aspect.

[hurrikane]

Ken,

now why do you think I was talking about you?

[kingfin66]

Ken,

Usually when Hurrikane is talking about you he is pretty specific. He also said that you can make a profit on #5 even though the number is lower. The BIG point here is that Hurrikane shared real data - 120,000 races worth - to confirm or refute generalities. I find the data very interesting.

Hurrikane,

One question for you. Would you mind sharing #2 for the 2nd call? Thanks.

[NoDayJob]

Originally posted by BIG HIT
#5Horse in the money one of last 2 race 50%

Finished 1st / 2nd in the last 3 races:

SPRINTS - 66+ %

ROUTES -- 62+ %

NDJ

[JPinMaryland]

Clarification please. On postulate no. 5, what exactly do you mean?

66% of winners will have finished either 1 or 2 at least once in the last 3 races

or

66% of winners will have finished either 1 or 2 in each of his last 3 races.

or...

a horse that finished 1st or 2nd in each of last 3 will win 66% of time

other??

It's ambiguous mainly as to whether you are saying, if the horse finished 1st or 2nd last time, he will then win, or if other way round, the horse that wins today, he finished 1st or 2nd last time out.

It's also somewhat ambiguous as to whether each of the last 3 or at least one of last 3.

[NoDayJob]

Originally posted by JPinMaryland
Clarification please. On postulate no. 5, what exactly do you mean?

66% of winners will have finished either 1 or 2 at least once in the last 3 races.

NDJ