BEST BETS!!

[bugboy]

i've read on this board as well as other boards that some of the best players only play about 1-2 maybe 3 races a day which they consider their BEST BETS. well,my question of course, how do you pick, what do you look for,that consitutes your "BEST BETS"
i would love to play this way, i do believe i have the patience to wait for my race. if any of ya guys would care to give up a couple of those secrets, i'd appreciate it of course......and i won't tell anyone else...hey i only want to make a profit, i know i won't break the bank. thanks for any input on this subject.
good luck to ya all.
frank

[BIG RED]

Know where, what kind of race, under certain situiations you are good at. Keep good records, then pounce.

[Buddha]

big red hits it. you can only find your best bets if you know what you are good at handicapping, and play to your own strengths. records help, and any serious player should keep them. I dont keep good enough records and slack on doing so, but am trying to get better. you also have to be able to adapt to situations that may popup from time to time

[cj]

If you think the favorite is the best horse, turn the page to the next race.

[Blackgold]

First of all, you have to resign yourself to the fact that you will spend infinite more time looking at races than betting the races.

I usually scan numerous cards. Sometimes all offered.

Then I look to see if the fav. can be beat and are their any combos of runners I like that can make the exotics explode the lights on the tote board.

Then I look to see if the number of combinations required to play in the exotics involve too many runners, or not.

If all of the above, I set the race(s) aside for another look.

From that pile, I whittle again. Review again as to do I really understand the race and is there Value. That usually eliminates some more races.

The scratches sometimes eliminates some more races and if the track is off, eliminates races too.

Then I wait for the opening odds. If a runner I'm not using is being played heavily and I don't understand why and I can't find a way to include in my play- it's a sign to pass. If the odds are too low relative to the runner's chances or if most of the exacta combos I'm considering playing are paying $50 or less- I pass.

The most money I make in racing is by searching long and hard to find Value.

The 2nd most money I make in racing is by not betting races I don't understand.

Good luck!

[JPinMaryland]

You know, if I followed that system, Id probably never bet any horse race. Just too timid or too skeptical.

If I bet to my strengths I prolly would try to bet something like:

You know that mountain that exploded about 20 years ago and killed that old guy that wouldnt leave sayin' I been here 40 years and I'll be here forty more...

You know that one? When does that one explode again?

[BIG RED]

bugboy, I meant that first remark for Win betting. Just started myself learning how to put my own stats into my computer. ( I have 7 notebooks of info to put on disc )

cj, totally agree. I'm hitting over 50% win end with my fave picks, but mostly heavy fave and am not in + territory. But I know this because of personal records.

[The_Knight_Sky]

I absolutely stress SELECTIVITY in Handicapping.

Seek value !
Yes that old bromide rings true,
but how does a player get him / herself in that position?

I believe in doing unique research on your horse and / or trainer.
By doing so, you're already ahead of a vast majority
of mere mortals. Since Horse-playing is a real-time activity,
the handicapper who does this unique research might find 2 gems on a typical racecard,
whereas a player with a different approach might find only 1 (or none).

Anyway - I have created a contest based on selectivity.
Not the best bet of the day - but the best of the entire weekend.
If players want to try their hand at contributing a small paragraph
of your handicapping genius, feel free to join us at TB champs.

Scoring is done by adding the two dollar Win + Place + Show mutuels.
This week we have a prize to the top scorer.
He / she will choose from:
Crushing The Cup 2004 by Jim Mazur and Peter Mallet
Meadowlands Handicapper '04
CLICK: SIX SHOOTER contest - check it out http://www.hoc-board.de/phpBB2/smilies/gemein/deal.gif (http://thoroughbredchampions.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=5)

[Overlay]

My particular approach to seeking value is through the manipulation of statistical data on key performance characteristics to arrive at an odds line that takes all the major handicapping factors (speed, class, condition, distance, pace, running surface, etc.) into consideration. This type of quantitative analysis gives me more confidence in my end result and in my wagering, since the use of subjective criteria and personal opinion is minimized. It gives me a firm basis for passing races where value is not present, but at the same time allows me to adopt a volume perspective on betting, rather than the type of spot play that you mentioned. Since I'm betting with established percentages rather than against them, playing more often provides a greater opportunity for those probabilities to prevail. Check out http://www.overlaypublications.com for more information on my methodology.

[JPinMaryland]

I guess a lot of the way to make money is to promote your own websites and publications.

[andicap]

Originally posted by Overlay
My particular approach to seeking value is through the manipulation of statistical data on key performance characteristics to arrive at an odds line that takes all the major handicapping factors (speed, class, condition, distance, pace, running surface, etc.) into consideration. This type of quantitative analysis gives me more confidence in my end result and in my wagering, since the use of subjective criteria and personal opinion is minimized. It gives me a firm basis for passing races where value is not present, but at the same time allows me to adopt a volume perspective on betting, rather than the type of spot play that you mentioned. Since I'm betting with established percentages rather than against them, playing more often provides a greater opportunity for those probabilities to prevail. Check out http://www.overlaypublications.com for more information on my methodology.

Tim,
No offense -- your web page looks intriguing -- but what are your credentials for us believing in your product? Why should I buy something from you when I don't know you from a hole in the wall.
I see stuff advertised every day in the DRF, on the Web, etc.
(Why I can get Michael DePasquale's "professional method" for just $50! )

Why give away the store for $60???
Give me some reasons to believe in you.....

Are you a professioal handicapper?
Do you make a profit at the races? How much?
If so, why sell this product?

I'm not being cynical -- just asking the questions everyone should ask before buying a product of this import as opposed to data-specific product like Mike Helm's books.

I bought Dave Schwartz's betting techniques because I know him and he has convinced me his ideas are worth taking a close look at.

I subscribe to HTR because people I respect told me it was good and it is.

I'm a big believer in playing overlays, but not to sound harsh or unfriendly, but why should I believe you?

I think I've seen your stuff on the ITS website but that means nothing to me -- Pizzolla will sell almost anything.

if you wish to e-mail me response instead of posting, be my guest. I'm not trying to be difficult, just caveat emptor.

[andicap]

I just want to say Tim e-mailed me very promptly with a nice reply, indicating his 90-day money back guarantee with no workout needed. That's a nice touch.

I would urge him, however, to get more involved in the day-to-day give and take on racing discussion so that people here look at him as more than just a huckster. Dave Schwartz is our favorite example here -- he's been a frequent contributor and sells his stuff in a very low-key way here. In fact, often times his customers are his best advertisements.

Ruben, through his "Thoroughbred" handle also takes part in handicapping discussions and answers questions about his software. I've known him for more than 10 years through Prodigy and he's an upstanding guy as well.

Similarly, Steve Wolson posts his picks from his Powerline software on the board and has shown profits every time.

In sum, I urge anyone here seling merchandise or software to be a participant, a citizen of this board, and not just post to advertise their product.

You will sell a lot more units and get more respect.