Belmont Gold Cup

[Aerocraft67]

:6: Arklow logical favorite but for the uncertainty about the extra half mile he's yet to run. I can forgive this given his class but don't want too short a price. Others seem quick to bet against. Formidable patterns from Cox here.

:4: Red Knight won at this distance two back but faced less classy contenders. Otherwise has class and speed that contends here. Looks to be most forwardly placed, but tough to assign pace advantage in this marathon. Mott not wildly successful second off layoff?

:9: Canessar fits here and has run the two miles well. Six-year-old may have lost just a step vs. these this year. Might get overlooked.

:8: Raa Atoll is a classy character drawing some attention as a mystery shot, but that big win last didn't look all that fast. I don't want to bet all that uncertainty. May wind up an underlay.

:1: Mootasadir I dismissed as a synth runner at first. Hasn't run well on turf but hasn't had much chance. Turf pedigree ratings no lower than synth. Also hasn't gone the full two miles. Need more than ML odds to take the contrarian side of the counts against him.

:3: Amade just seems even dicier than :1:.

I'll be looking to salvage some odds on the :6: or :4:.

[Robert Fischer]

:1: Mootasadir I dismissed as a synth runner at first. Hasn't run well on turf but hasn't had much chance. Turf pedigree ratings no lower than synth. Also hasn't gone the full two miles. Need more than ML odds to take the contrarian side of the counts against him.

By far my favorite euro-shipper in the field.

Morning line odds of 6/1 is horrible.
This horse is more like a 20/1 shot on the public.

Even with the public 'anchored' to this awful morning line price of the :1:, I still expect more than 10/1 at off.


I'll look at the Doubles lead-in, and the Win pool, and the exacta pools, and then consider keying the :1: in exactas and tris with two or three chalky American contenders.

If the :1: isn't a long shot, I'm not interested.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:3:

[Robert Fischer]

early doubles has the 1 at 6th choice.

some of the fears that the bad morning line would anchor the public are allayed.

Also interesting that the 8 and 3 are taking reasonably significant money in the early doubles.

[Robert Fischer]

give me 3 , 6, or 8 in the ninth race NY S. , and I won't have to use :1: in the win hole


8 got 'em ... bet down late in the DD, but still looking at $28.50 , 6 was twice the price

[Aerocraft67]

By far my favorite euro-shipper in the field.

Morning line odds of 6/1 is horrible.
This horse is more like a 20/1 shot on the public.

Even with the public 'anchored' to this awful morning line price of the :1:, I still expect more than 10/1 at off.

If the :1: isn't a long shot, I'm not interested.

How's 16-1 opening?

[Robert Fischer]

How's 16-1 opening?

:D:ThmbUp:


shoot, i like it...

couple worries;
1- that my Doubles money is "worth less" than when I bet those doubles (assuming 16-1)

and

2- that by now, I've made some kind of 'emotional commitment' to this fringe idea, that I'll now follow up with over betting...

[Tee]

:8: Raa Atoll

[cj]

Taking a shot with the :5: Highland Sky. Once classy horse (2nd in G1 Belmont Derby) has a lot of excuses in recent running lines (slow paces, soft turf in others) and maybe the distance gives him a shot. At 19-1 I'll play him in the top 3 spots.

[Aerocraft67]

Place :1:
Exactas :4:,:6:/:1:,:4:,:6:

[Robert Fischer]

:3:

Good call

Taking a shot with the :5: Highland Sky. Once classy horse (2nd in G1 Belmont Derby) has a lot of excuses in recent running lines (slow paces, soft turf in others) and maybe the distance gives him a shot. At 19-1 I'll play him in the top 3 spots.

:ThmbUp:

[Tom]

Amade - gotta love those blinkers!!!
Classy.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:3:


:3: wins and Flavor Flav gets a Budweiser and a hot dog from the concession stand in the stretch. :headbanger:

[cj]

:5: ran well to get third, no pace at all once again, one to follow IMO.

[jay68802]

Followed LDH in a way.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Followed LDH in a way.


They should allow you to cash that ticket right now sir. :headbanger:

[jay68802]

They should allow you to cash that ticket right now sir. :headbanger:

That would be just fine with me.:)

and make it the :1: or the :7:

[Tom]

Close, CJ. You don't need to hit that many at those odds!
One to watch for sure - he was flying late.

Winner of the race, Euro shipper, FT lasix.