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View Full Version : G1 R8 Belmon Woody Stephens 6/8/19


Lemon Drop Husker
06-07-2019, 06:19 AM
A key race in any a number of P3s, 4s, 5s, an 6s. And a loaded race at that.

:1: Honest Mischief: Not gonna lie, I've been following this horse and after his monster last out with a Sheet number of a 2, there is no way in Hades he'll go off at 6/1. At worst he'll be 3rd favorite. Major contender.

:2: Much Better: Front running Baffert didn't bring his best last out and Mind Control seems to have his number. Near back to back bullet works coming in should spark interest. Toss in Mike Smith in the irons and he becomes very interesting.

:3: Borracho: Rolls in off of his best career race followed by 2 solid bullet works. I'd typically say no chance, but this is a 3YO likely on the rise. In a race with plenty of speed, he could sit a great trip. Monster price with a likely solid shot.

:4: Complexity: Name pretty well says it all. This very lightly raced 3YO makes his 3YO beau in a very tough field. He was supposed to be a Triple Crown contending horse, but lands here in a 7F sprint with other options available. He'll get bet. Is this Baffert good enough off the bench as a 3YO firster amid these?

:5: Landeskog: Front-runner will need things to go his way. His 'friend' just to his outside closed and finished him off last out, but that was after brutal fractions of :21.1 and :44.1. Little doubt he is fast, but can he stay 6F, much less 7?

:6: Nitrous: As mentioned in the previous, he got the perfect setup to win last out. Lost to a number of other rivals in here, and isn't the best closer in this bunch. Would need a career best to maybe even hit the board.

:7: Strike Silver: Getting better, but not sure he is read for this group. Casse/Ortiz are interesting. Could be a good one, maybe not ready just yet.

:8: Hog Creek Hustle: Doesn't get much respect at the windows in his last 4. Seems to always run his race, but would likely need a lot of help to hit the board. While he has 2 Place finishes while not getting bet in his last 4, he was no threat to win. Bottom of exotics seems like his ceiling here.

:9: Mind Control: At his best, he is on or near the lead. However, he doesn't need the lead. ML favorite is as tactical and talented as any horse in the field. Major contender that has to be respected that is working well coming in.

:10: Lexitonian: Nice win last out at a number, but he was spanked 2 back by Borracho who will be a price in here. Not sure he is getting any better, even after a win.

:11: Wendell Fong: Really interesting horse that hasn't done much wrong other than losing to Alwaysmining. Works are great, and he just won on this strip. Serious shot at a 10/1 ML.


SUMMARY: I'm a sucker for the :1:. :3::6::11: should be appetizing prices.

Tom
06-07-2019, 09:21 AM
My question is did the :1: run too fast?

I'm throwing him out of the exactas.
I don't play horizontals other than doubles so he's no problem for
me there.

I've been looking at him for the last few days :confused:

Lemon Drop Husker
06-07-2019, 09:34 AM
My question is did the :1: run too fast?

I'm throwing him out of the exactas.
I don't play horizontals other than doubles so he's no problem for
me there.

I've been looking at him for the last few days :confused:


True. You always have to worry about horses that run too fast.:coffee:

Tom
06-07-2019, 10:05 AM
Now if I get 5-1 on him.......

Lemon Drop Husker
06-07-2019, 11:40 AM
Now if I get 5-1 on him.......


We get 5/1, I'm borrowing money on your reverse mortgage. ;)

Robert Fischer
06-08-2019, 12:44 PM
Yea, I expect :1: to be favored or co-favored.


He's interesting. Could be a super-star. If he doesn't fire, or if his 'move' ends up doing dirty work vs the bevy of pace, could see a price in the win hole.

Probably just pass, unless seduced by a potential last-mover.

GaryG
06-08-2019, 01:11 PM
Now if I get 5-1 on him.......I am playing him at 7-2 or more

GMB@BP
06-08-2019, 01:15 PM
I am playing him at 7-2 or more

going to be interesting, lot of speed on the inside, on an inside speed track.

Aerocraft67
06-08-2019, 01:47 PM
Hard to get past the chalk in this, although I'm against the :4: Complexity.

I like :2: Much Better nearly as much as :9: as a probable winner, even more as a "value."

The :1: Honest Mischief is fine but lots to look past to get to him.

Cleverest I can do is the late-running :8:, cutting back to distance it won at with a trainer angle to match.

Maybe I'll key the :8: with :2:&:9:. Not sure what to do about :1:, probably the "can't bet them all" horse for me here.

AxleLode
06-08-2019, 03:52 PM
Ex Bx :2:-:8:-:11:

Robert Fischer
06-08-2019, 03:53 PM
Yea, I expect :1: to be favored or co-favored.


He's interesting. Could be a super-star. If he doesn't fire, or if his 'move' ends up doing dirty work vs the bevy of pace, could see a price in the win hole.

Probably just pass, unless seduced by a potential last-mover.

Somehow Paul Loduca is surprised that the :1: is favored.

:confused:

Not sure how.


If the :1: isn't favored or co-favored, you would have to take that to mean "ice-cold on the board"...


doesn't mean that the :1: is obviously much the best, but that you should expect him to be favored.

Questionable morning line, but it was so high that I don't think it 'anchored' the public (up) whatsoever, and arguably would cause a reactionary betting (down).

Interesting betting race.

GMB@BP
06-08-2019, 03:57 PM
Not sure how the ML make got so far off with the 1, no chance that horse was every gonna be 6/1.

cj
06-08-2019, 03:58 PM
Taking a shot with :8: Hog Creek Hustle, will never see a better set up on paper.

Robert Fischer
06-08-2019, 04:09 PM
Taking a shot with :8: Hog Creek Hustle, will never see a better set up on paper.

great call.

Lemon Drop Husker
06-08-2019, 04:11 PM
Taking a shot with :8: Hog Creek Hustle, will never see a better set up on paper.




Da' man. :headbanger:

ctownraces@bp
06-08-2019, 04:13 PM
Taking a shot with :8: Hog Creek Hustle, will never see a better set up on paper.

great call bad luck tho

cj
06-08-2019, 04:14 PM
Taking a shot with :8: Hog Creek Hustle, will never see a better set up on paper.

Knowing my luck, 98% to come down.

cj
06-08-2019, 04:16 PM
Knowing my luck, 98% to come down.

Whew, F#%!k yeah.

Tom
06-08-2019, 04:16 PM
:jump: Nice!

ctownraces@bp
06-08-2019, 04:20 PM
:headbanger::headbanger:Whew, F#%!k yeah.

Dream_Police
06-08-2019, 07:50 PM
Congrats CJ on the hit but using the same logic that they used here in KY he should have come down as he clearly came out and impeded the 9. This is once again why fans are so confused by the different results from state to state. Earlier in the card there was a DQ and it was far less than what the 8 did and they moved that one down. Just Saying.

burnsy
06-08-2019, 08:00 PM
Congrats CJ on the hit but using the same logic that they used here in KY he should have come down as he clearly came out and impeded the 9. This is once again why fans are so confused by the different results from state to state. Earlier in the card there was a DQ and it was far less than what the 8 did and they moved that one down. Just Saying.

Agreed, I had the 9 on top. No call. Had the derby....call. My DQ luck.

What made it even worse is that I bet :8: last out. Some of the same thoughts as CJ. And Hog Creek Hustle came out of some key races that have proved worthy in this group. Doesn't matter , my luck if I had used him, it would of come down. But c'mon. How was it that much different than the derby?

And the previous call was not as egregious, totally agree. Consistency??????

Nice one if had though.....

Dream_Police
06-08-2019, 08:04 PM
Agree burnsy, I give all the props to those that had the 8 as I totally dismissed him, I should have known being from KY that a CD jockey would burn my tale in the P4 as that was the leg I whiffed on.


Consistency is all anyone wants and right now we are far from it when it comes to DQ decisions.

cj
06-08-2019, 10:32 PM
I can't really argue with those that think it should have been a DQ, but I'll say unless we know what JRV said to the stewards it is really hard to have a strong opinion. He may very well have said "I had no horse" and that is why the winner stayed up.

GMB@BP
06-08-2019, 10:46 PM
I can't really argue with those that think it should have been a DQ, but I'll say unless we know what JRV said to the stewards it is really hard to have a strong opinion. He may very well have said "I had no horse" and that is why the winner stayed up.

Its the dangerous aspect of the situation, in todays environment spill in the stretch need to be avoided at all costs, and these riders need to do more to keep their mounts straight.

Afleet
06-09-2019, 12:02 AM
I can't really argue with those that think it should have been a DQ, but I'll say unless we know what JRV said to the stewards it is really hard to have a strong opinion. He may very well have said "I had no horse" and that is why the winner stayed up.

JR checked pretty hard but still couldn't tell from the angles they were showing whether the 8 was clear or not. Nice call!

Irishfever
06-09-2019, 12:18 PM
That non dq call cost me the pk4 2x.. Ouch!!!

burnsy
06-09-2019, 12:35 PM
That non dq call cost me the pk4 2x.. Ouch!!!

It just cost me any chance with Mind Control. I had a dismal day anyway. With a couple first and thirds on my exactas and some that were not close. But here’s the thing. For all the crying after the derby. None of the DQ supporters are saying boo. That horse was obviously cut off and taken up. Losing all chance in stretch. It’s undeniable. No talk, no could of caused a spill , no could of went down......nothing. The consistency of these calls is a total joke. Seeing that really has to make one wonder. Then people bitch because there are lawsuits. It’s completely justified with officiating like this. All the lawyer has to do is a comparison of calls and anyone in their right mind would get the picture. They are fine by the whimsy of the jurisdiction and the day it is. Total garbage rule application! :cool:

LemonSoupKid
06-09-2019, 06:45 PM
:6: Nitrous would have been the winner though right? I had him big WPS, at least I got a nice PS

If not for the break last, My :6: also might have gotten there, but hey I get it...