G2 R8 Belmont True North 6/7/19

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Belmont weekend is upon us, and we have one of the greatest weekends of races at a single track in the country outside of a Breeder's Cup Saturday.

Part of that will be the G2 True North that kicks off the start off the $.20 2-day Festival P6. And it is a dandy.

Throw in a little caveat that Allowance horses ran a 1:14 and change today that was just 2/5ths or so off the track record at 6.5F, and we could see this bunch attain a new track record at this distance tomorrow.

:1: Bon Raison: This will be his 10th race of the 2019 calendar year for this guy. While he has 3 wins under his belt this year, he has been beat pretty handily by a couple of rivals in here. This will be the biggest and toughest field he has ever faced coming off the rail for a horse that doesn't like to get to the lead. Hard Pass.

:2: Stan the Man: Connections change him up here and put him back into a legit sprint. He didn't get beat by much by :4: Nicodemus last out at a mile, and he has ran a couple of bullets since then. Really interesting and puzzling horse that could fit into any a number of tickets. LS contender.

:3: Catalina Cruiser: Likely favorite, but hasn't raced since the disastrous BC Mile in which he was the less than even money chalk. Recent works show this 'freak' could be ready yet again in gate to wire fashion. As a severely lightly raced 5YO, does he come back in his 6th ever race against almost as good of company as the BC Mile? Beatable favorite?

:4: Nicodemus: 4YO is starting to come into his own in winning 2 of his last 3. He'll likely need a solid pace in front of him, but could be a dangerous closer at this shortened up distance for him. Linda Rice/Jose Ortiz match up on this guy. Very very interesting.

:5: Strike Power: Will need to be on the front end to be any part, and his all or nothing style isn't all that intriguing unless you want to have him on top. Johnny V steps on board, but this is as tough a one to see at a bad 8/1 ML.

:6: Recruiting Ready: Hasn't ran a bad race with the new connections, but you still have to ask; does he have a winning race in him against this crowd? As a 5YO, he should be in his prime and ready to pop a big one. And fresh off a near bullet. Just not sure he has enough class for these when all is said and done.

:7: Whitmore: As hard knocking a sprinter as you'll see in the entire country. Rarely runs a bad race, and is always coming late. While he is 0 for 3 at Belmont, he was right there with Imperial Hint at the wire just last year in this very race. A fan favorite for many, he has to be included on any ticket be it top row, exacta, or other exotics.

:8: Do Share: Is the race 2 back a pure mirage and a numbers gaff? Or is he ready to run another monster after his bounce? Maker not having a good meet, but Irad stays. Needs a complete pace meltdown.

:9: Gold for the King: Dead chalk in his last 5 races and only has 1 win against lesser. Hasn't raced since January. Works are solid enough. This will be his first ever shot against this kind of company, and he isn't without a shot. With all that said he is merely a bottom end exotics booster for me.

:10: Mr. Dougie Fresh: He would kill for a wet, muddy, or even off track. He isn't gonna get it. Either way, his last 4 races are pretty damn good. He'd undoubtedly need a career best, but he isn't without a shot.


SUMMARY: Gotta include :4::7::8: to beat the :3:. :6: is scary. Tougher race than most think.

[Afleet]

Really like :8: but will play :3:,:7:,:8: in the first leg of the 2 day pick 6. Very interesting race. Think :10: may get a good trip. Excellent trifecta race, especially if :3: is not ready off the bench

[Tom]

The :8: threw me when I saw that 105 (116 BRIS). Haven't checked TF yet, but I can't believe he will ever run near tha again.
Hoping he take enough money to make others look more inviting.

Funny, I used to look for bog numbers and powerful performances now I look at them as reason to throw the horse out!

[RunForTheRoses]

Regarding the :3, he looks tough, that Pat Obrien was hyuge, but, as noted above, not many starts for a 5yo and Sadler, while he has had some recent success, hasn't been a great shipping trainer. But he has been hot at SA lately, so who knows.

Other than the other two obvious ones :7: and :8: I think only the :9: has a shot. Well maybe the 5 as well, second start at 4 could run a big one.

[Tom]

:3: was originally pointing to the Met, but this signals a realistic look at the horse. I like him a lot in here. Entered to win.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:3: was originally pointing to the Met, but this signals a realistic look at the horse. I like him a lot in here. Entered to win.

Maybe.

Could also signal a bit of lack of confidence with the connections. This is an extremely lightly raced horse, and he was the dead ass chalk in the BC Mile for a reason.

With the few spots they place him, wouldn't you want the confidence of them putting him in the Met Mile? $250K G2 vs $1.2 Million G1. That is a massive difference. A 3rd in the Met Mile is nearly as good as a win in the True North from a monetary standpoint.

[Aerocraft67]

I like the :8: too, surely it'll get bet. The :9: caught my eye at a price, fits as well as any. Couldn't really make a case for :4:,:5:,:6: beyond a little angle each. Route to sprint, second layoff, back speed, respectively.

The :7: is the kind of vulnerablish second choice I like to bet against, at my peril. As for the :3:, I'd like to see more evidence that he can win off that layoff at a short price, but of course he's a contender.

[Tom]

I think putting the :3: in the sprint shows confidence that he has a bright future this year. He won 4 straight then got buried, so they gave him time to rest and grow. This race should be well within his ability without stressing all out to beat the top in-form horses in
the Met. He can use this race to both win and build on for the rest of the year. We shall see.

If he is not confident, why ship all the way here to lose?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I think putting the :3: in the sprint shows confidence that he has a bright future this year. He won 4 straight then got buried, so they gave him time to rest and grow. This race should be well within his ability without stressing all out to beat the top in-form horses in
the Met. He can use this race to both win and build on for the rest of the year. We shall see.

If he is not confident, why ship all the way here to lose?


Solid points. Pretty much why this horse confuses me. He either laps the field, or could finish off the board. Class of the field by multiple lengths if he runs anywhere near anything he ran prior to the BC Mile.

[Robert Fischer]

Nice job. Good luck.



I never bet against the team behind that :3:, unless I have some sort of strong reason.



It's an interesting hunch bet, with potential for windfall, but it's not for me.

I'll pass. If I 'had' to play =

I toss the :1::5: here.
:1: is also 'scratched'.

Look to the sky
win and 'single' on :3: @ ≥ 1.5, and ≤2.2 odds range, pass 'blind' multis.


$1 ex 3 over :2::4::10:



I'll do a cheap gimmick book-ending the 3 to the 9(supposed to be the 8, not the 9, but the odds stink).

$0.10 SU 3
$0.10 SU 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
$0.10 SU 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
$0.10 SU 9
Wager Total $3.00

[PhantomOnTour]

The #10 is interesting to me...looks too slow and outclassed on paper, but is entered by a very good barn and has the hottest jock in the world on his back.
His form is at an all time high and he's earned a shot vs the big boys.

If the price is right I'll be using in exotics

[biggestal99]

:3: was originally pointing to the Met, but this signals a realistic look at the horse. I like him a lot in here. Entered to win.

I never like horses that go for the second best race.

Toss the chalk.

Allan

[Tom]

Contenders - :2::3::4::5::7:

I really like the :3: but I do't like Rosario on him. Rosario is supposed to be some great rider, but all I ever see is him totally screwing up ride after ride.

:2: Stan the Man is interesting. His figs make him a legit contender and the jockey is interesting, too - BRIS shows him as 3 - 0 the last 60 days, but his is 50% on this horse and 80% exacta finishes.

I make him my top pick over :3::4::5::7:

:5: Came back showing his early on form in a fast race - looks to be a factor this year - can take this all the way on the front end.

Better do a Win on him and a :5:/:2::7: exacta to cover myself.

[jay68802]

:9: Gold for the King

:3: Catalina Cruiser
:7: Whitmore

[Tom]

I never like horses that go for the second best race.

Toss the chalk.

Allan

Ah yes, but...chalk is one of the 4 major food groups! :cool:

[Aerocraft67]

Win :8:
Ex :8:/:4:,:9:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:4::7::8::10: Box 'em


:4: across the board

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Huge late scratch.


:8: Do Share

[Tom]

:8: scratched at gate

[Aerocraft67]

Oh for crying out loud. Scratch on :8:?

[cj]

The way the track is playing I'm going with :5:Strike Power at a juicy 6-1...oops, just clicked down to 5-1 with late scratch of Do Share.

[Tee]

:5: Strike Power

[Aerocraft67]

Just bet :4:,:9: to place.

[cj]

The way the track is playing I'm going with :5:Strike Power at a juicy 6-1...oops, just clicked down to 5-1 with late scratch of Do Share.

Ouch, tough beat. Hopefully he held second.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:5: Strike Power




Great call Tee and CJ. CC ran another monster.

[Robert Fischer]

raw time was good, and he broke rather poorly.


That said, he had to work very hard to run down a couple of bums.

Yea, the track was against him (and carrying the 5), but I'm not frothing at the mouth and multiplying huge speed figures and all that stuff.


About what we expected from a horse who will be among the division leaders for the mid-summer through Breeders Cup.

[Tom]

I shoulda listened to myself this morning!
Damn Rosario gets me again. :mad:

[GMB@BP]

If strike power could not win with that setup over these type horses then he never will, I bet him and got everything I wanted. The favorite blew the break was against the track off a layoff and still won