Weekend stakes postmortem

[Valuist]

Arc: Didn't see any fractions but it was a very un-European like fast pace. North Light and the Japanese horse separated themselves pretty good from the rest until they burned out. I thought the runner up probably ran a better race than Bago. He may have moved a bit too soon, and probably didn't see Bago coming while Bago had dead aim on him all the way.

Vosburgh: Hard to knock Pico Central. He dueled head to head w/the horse thought to be the top sprinter (Speightstown) and the 2003 BC Sprint winner and he drew away.

Turf Classic: Kitten's Joy is a freak. Maybe the best 3YO grasser since Manila. The final 1/4 was run in :22 3/5 and he made up 1 1/2 lengths on that. I still dont know how Manila wasn't voted top 3YO of 1986.

JC Gold Cup-Pace was definitely on the soft side. Funny Cide showed a lot of gameness but IMO the best horse was The Cliffs Edge, who was the only horse at the finish that made up ground. He wont be a betback, since he got hurt and is now retired.

Haw Gold Cup- On paper there didn't seem to be too much speed. Yet visually the field was extremely strung out. Winner was 25 lengths out after 4 furlongs. Perfect Drift was right on the fast pace and the other two pacesetters fell apart. 27-1 longshots coming from 25 out of it aren't closing on a slow pace. Perfect Drift expended the most energy.

Yellow Ribbon- Light Jig was very impressive. Didn't think this was the strongest Gr 1 of the year and Light Jig made it look like a walkover.

Oak Leaf- The TVG guys kept raving about the winner, Sweet Catomine, who ran very well, but I was pretty impressed by the runnerup, who got out on the first turn, then went up to press the pace and battle 3 wide into the far turn and still ran second. Splended Blended will probably be an overlay in the Juvie Fillies.

[OTM Al]

Flowerbowl was a nice race too. When I saw Riskadverse down around 9-1, I was smiling ear to ear. Her race and Pico Central's should stamp one basic fact in every handicapper's process. Grade 1 winners win grade 1 races. I went completely against Speightstown for that reason. He looked great in his previous, but he was running with the big boys in this one. Actually discounted Cajun Beat as well as this race looked to me to be one to prime him for the BC. He will look much better then. The one that left me crying in my beer was Kitten's Joy. I left him off my P4 ticket in favor of Magestretti and the 2 British horses. First time agains older I figured....which means I figured about $1400 wrong when Funny Cide came roaring across the line in the JC....

A couple other races worth noting this weekend too

Stellar Jayne 3rd in the Indiana Oaks....wth? Did not see this race, but this is a horse that has beat Ashado twice. Wondering how well intentioned she was or maybe her run is over for a while.

Pegasus...Eddington 2nd. He's setting up to be the perfect underneath horse. Have liked this guy a lot and think he will earn a decent amount before his career is over, but he needs some improvement if he is ever going to step up and start winning.

Indiana Derby. Brass Hat ran another nice race. I liked this guy as the possible upset here, but the way it happened won't work out for him that often in the future. Pollards Vision looked to have enough to give a good kick in the end, but he was stuck behind the 2 early speed and quickly fading longshots and had no where to go until way too late, at which point I think he was just shut down. This race is a throwout for him in my opinion.

[Valuist]

Al-

FWIW, Stellar Jayne did have some road trouble in the stretch at Hoosier. The TVG guys were sure there was going to be an inquiry. I'm not sure she would've won anyways but I'm kind of surprised they didn't look at the replays a little closer.

I'm trying to remember the Flower Bowl. I thought Commercante may have moved a hair too soon. Don't think she saw Riskaverse coming at her.

I'm not real crazy about Pollards Vision. I hated him on Friday and I can't excuse his effort.

[Dancer's Image]

Valuist posted...

"JC Gold Cup-Pace was definitely on the soft side. Funny Cide showed a lot of gameness but IMO the best horse was The Cliffs Edge, who was the only horse at the finish that made up ground. He wont be a betback, since he got hurt and is now retired."

...I am just incredulous! How can a rational person post something this stupid? Everyone is entitled to their own opinion of course, but to say this after watching the race just proves that you don't use any facts to formulate your opinion. "Funny Cide showed a lot of gameness", the eclipse winner for understatement of the year!

Funny Cide, the gutsy gelding indeed!

[cj]

Funny Cide definitely made up more ground than The Cliff's Edge down the lane, but since TCE was injured, we'll never know if he could have finished stronger.

[OTM Al]

And the fact that Santos put FC in a position to have to make up ground. Remember he gave up a couple lengths in the turn. With clean sailing, its possible FC may have pulled away there and left them well behind. It is a credit to FC that in the end when Santos finally let him go completely, he was still willing to kick out and go. After having the breaks put on a couple times in a race, most horses would not be so responsive

[Valuist]

Dancer's Image-

I've been profitable at the track 13 of the last 16 years. I guess that does make me stupid and lacking in knowledge in racing. Or I guess every horse that wins is automatically the best horse in that race.....just like every team that wins is without question the better team. The pace WAS soft; a fact you obviously are oblivious to, and TCE was hurt by the pace yet he was in a photo in the race. The slow part of the pace was the first 2 quarters, when TCE was dragging back in 7th. The 3rd quarter saw the pace pick up considerably. Not only did I watch the race but I posted Funny Cide in the Selections forum and had money on him.

Getting back to the Arc, seeing that North Light was 5th, I would give him the check mark as being the best horse. Ouija Board will probably be overbet based on her close on the very fast pace.

[JPinMaryland]

From the betting perspective, I have a couple of questions...

Main question, in the Middleground BC. (I think at Oak Park) Leaving on my Mind paid 11.20 to win, but only 4.60 to place. The numbers dont add up to me. Did anyone notice anything strange in the place pools for this race?

THe winner, was 7-2 at one pt. but must have climbed to 11-2 when he went off (based on the win payout). The place horse, the number 2, he was listed at 4-1 on TV and he paid 4.80 to place...

Assuming the track takes out 15% (its 14% at BEL I think), the winner should command about 13% of the place pool, assuming people are betting him to place in the same ratio as win. Taking out 15% leaves 85% to be split between the win/place horses, 42.5% over 13% should payout a little over 3:1 for the winner. Is my math off? was there something odd in the place pool?

The thing about Cliff's Edge, did he go off at 3-2? HOw? He's been runer up last 3 times out. I can see him being a good bet to hit the board, but not to win. The exacta on that race paid 96 and change,which didnt look that hard. Newfoundland seemed to dropping in his odds; FC seemed a good horse to box an exacta with.

The 8th race at BEL on sat. also paid 96 something, those were the two best exactas on Sat's tv races. THey also had the best place payouts.

[JPinMaryland]

I watched Roman Ruler in the Norfolk on sun. Basically a work out for him. This horse looks very beatable, in the race at Del Mar where Declan beat him, the times were very fast, but RR was right there in the stretch and seemed to have no desire to get in front. Still they ran a 1:21 something for 7f which is strong.

Baffert said he's leaning in that race, leaning in on the other horse. ANd that is why he put blinders on him for sundays' race.

Kenny the ESPN guy, watching sunday, says take the blinders off. Noting that as RR rounded the first turn on sunday, his mouth was wide open pulling on the bit or something. Baffert says the blinders are okay, but may trim them a little. Baffert also said that the horse did not act up in the post parade and that is something that he is trying to control.

THe race on sunday, it looked like they wanted to rouse him in the stretch but it did not like the horse really responds to urging or has any inclination to push himself. Just looks that way to me, be interested in what others think. He ran 6f in 1:12 something, finished 1 1/16 in 1:44 I think, looks like he was easing up a bit at the end.

[RXB]

JP, your math on the place pools is a little off. You underestimated the takeout slightly and the win probabilities slightly, but the main thing is that you forgot to subtract an odds point when you divvied up the pools for each horse.

The WPS takeout at Lone Star is 18%. At 4.6 and 4.2 odds, the one-two finishers would have taken about 14.64% and 15.77%, respectively, of the win money.

Assuming they took approximately the same fraction of the place pool (and at those odds, that's normally what happens), the expected place payouts would be about $5.60 and $5.20. So the actual payouts of $4.80 and $4.60 are within the normal range.

$8 place payouts on 9/2 horses are a rare occurrence.

[JPinMaryland]

what does 4.6 and 4.2 odds means? Did these horses go off at something like 9:2 and 2:1 respectively? so the one horse was bet down? not sure what is happening given the odds I thought I saw on tv.

once again I am befuddled by the writing style.

[RXB]

4.6 would be 9/2, and 4.2 would be 4/1. If that befuddles you, how do you read the DRF or charts?

[JPinMaryland]

9:2 WOULD BE 9:2 not 4.6 to 1, 4:1 WOULD BE 4:1.

If the person is looking at different odds ratios than the ones I had seen posted this would be helpful to point this out to me. For one thing a change in the oddds would obviously change the ratios in the pools.

This was the entire thrust of my question, if the tote board odds had changed since I saw the tv odds, this would obviously change the win/place/show pools.

I had earlier asked above if there were changes in the odds or changes in the pools other than the figures I had posted.

If I ask for this, and no one directly says "yes there was a change" or "no there was no change, you saw the right odds" this would be relevant to the calculations.

Agree? I do not want to pursue further math if I had not seen the right numbers. For obvious reasons.

It is often difficult to communicate in such a threaded form because people assume they have said something when in fact it is not clear.

I would like to know for certain what it is the person is saying before venturing with further math calculations or further questions.

Thank you.

[JPinMaryland]

Do you see why I am confused RXB. The winning horse paid 11.20 to win. Doesnt that mean he went off at about 11:2 odds?

Apparently, if I read your post correctly, you are saying the horse actual odds to win were 4.6 to 1.

I dont see how that is possible given that he paid 11.20 to win. What am I missing?

Do you see why this is confusing to someone and why it is hard to understand 4.6 means 4.6 to 1 odds?

[RXB]

When a horse pays $11.20, his odds are 9/2, not 11/2. And in the PP's or charts, his odds are listed at 4.60.

[JPinMaryland]

well. duh. I had done the math right converting from odds to payouts, but going from payouts to figuring odds, totally bolloxed it. Stupid. Thanks.

Good practice for going to races next week.