Longshot winner

[hdcper]

Hi everyone,

On my way home today, I stopped at my local track Turf Paradise. While talking to some of my fellow handicappers, they shared an earlier winner with me from Sportsman Park.

I preceded to review the race of conversation in the DRF past performances. The winner was a horse named Sweet Cake which returned $99.00 to win. It amazed me that this was a Maiden Claiming race for 7,500 and this horse's pps reflected only three races which were all Mdn Special Weight races.

Sometimes the public make decisions that just amaze me!

What do you think?

Hdcper

[RECON]

NICE TO SEE YOU PICK UP A GREAT HIT---- LET ME TELL YOU ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED TO ME TODAY---- YESTERDAY I GOT NOTIFIED BY DRF THAT A HORSE I WAS LOOKING FOR WAS GOING TODAY IN THE 7TH AT SPORTSMANS--- RACE WAS NOT A GRASS RACE SO I DISREGARDED IT---- HORSE PAID 139.80 TO WIN OH MY

[Druther]

Hdcper

Just for the record, Sweet Cake was actually making his 11th career start “today.” Most of his races were at Fairmount – indeed he was coming into Chicago today from FP and had invaded the Chicago tracks before and failed. And he had run for a tag once in those 10 starts.

None of that is to suggest he didn’t rank as the class today. I’m sure any program that provides a class rating ranked him very high. In HSH he stood out like a sore thumb – in that factor. Otherwise he didn’t look any prettier than the rest of the bunch – and this wasn’t a pretty-looking bunch. They all looked like their next engagement would be at Glue Factory Downs.

But my response goes toward your statement “Sometimes the public make decisions that just amaze me!”

I agree. I probably spend more time monitoring and trying to understand what the public is doing than anyone I know. I absolutely cannot make an intelligent decision until I know what the odds are and believe I understand what the public is doing and why. That’s why I never play more than 2 tracks at a time – I can’t handle more than 2 tracks at a time.

I mention this only because you and I got off to a bad start once when you asked why I didn’t post some Lone F picks and the odds I’d accept. The truth is I don’t know what odds I’ll accept until the race is “live” and I’ve weighed the evidence. And I’m no good at weighing the evidence until it’s presented to me in a live courtroom. And I don’t want the responsibility of anyone playing a potential Lone F that I wouldn’t end up playing myself. And I don’t know until the final few minutes and I don’t have the time to go back and post a “retraction.”

But back to your public decisions sometimes being amazing. I’ve asked the same question – even started a thread on the HSH board about it, but it never went anywhere.

But here’s my conclusion: It’s because the horse has nothing else going for it than this “one factor.” The public likes “pretty horses.” Sweet Cake’s was unquestionably the class of the field – if you define Class as the level of the race a horse runs in. Except for the one MCL race – which was for a higher tag than today’s race – all of his races were against MSWs. But don’t think for a minute that the mob didn’t see exactly what you saw. But they attached no relevance to it because he didn’t run well in any of those races – he’s already 0 for 10, after all – and none of his speed/pace numbers are any better than the rest of them. And the public loves their “numbers.”

The fact that he’d already lost – repeatedly – at a presumed inferior track was probably another factor in him being ignored. Not to mention that he’d also failed before at the superior Chicago tracks.

[GR1@HTR]

Yeop, not saying I woulda played it but HTR had it 2nd in ACL and 1st in Level

[Druther]

GR1

Interesting. In HSH this horse was what I call a "Quibbler." That's a horse that ranks first in both Class and Level, is the only such horse in the race in both of those factors - because HSH can rank 2 or more horses as being a Rank of 1 when their raw numbers are within a specific number - and isn't ranked 1st in any other factor.

I don't play Quibblers simply because they're a Quibbler either - it's just another thing I look at and use to base my decisions on.

But my own tests indicate they're very profitable. You don't find very many, they don't win any more often than favorites do (if that) and they sometimes have so many fleas that their Quibbler status is quesntionable anyhow. But when they're "clean" they pay some outrageous prices.

I didn't play this race either - didn't even follow SPT that day. But looking at the race in hindsight he looked pretty clean to me. I suppose it's probably true that the average MSW at FP is lower than SPT or HAW, but he'd also competed at those tracks - agains't MSWs.

One thing for sure - while they all looked like plow horses - this guy was definately dropping to the lowest class level in his career.

[GR1@HTR]

Good points Druther. I've tested just about all the longshot factors available and some type of class rating is definitely one of the best ones for sure. Just like you said, unfortunately, these lowley creatures do not have much else going for them and look real ugly outside of the class, level or acl ranking. Tuff to spot but pay big prices. I don't play them cause they win at such a low %. Long live the Quibbler!

[Lefty]

I didn't play race or trk either but, after race two buddies
said they just didn't play FP horses coming to this trk.
That's one possible reason for the price:TRK DISCRIMINATION!

[Druther]

Suppose for the sake of argument that you were playing SPT on this day and had noticed that he was the Class of the race, etc.

Would you have bet him at 45-1 (or whatever his exact odds were)? Don’t classify him as a longshot and say “No” because I don’t play longshots. Simply look at him as an overlay relative to your opinion of his chances with how you saw the race and assume that you thought his chances were at least as good and certainly no worse than any of the others.

Would you bet him at 45-1? Or would you pass for some reason such as the public must have a better view of the race than I do?

[GR1@HTR]

Interesting point Druther. Me thinks the longshot player has to takes swings at these types. It's those types that give them the winning seasons and not so much the $20 to $30 hits. Most people shy away from the 30-1/40-1 types. Those tournament players count and feast on those types of plays. Majority of the good ones don't bet anything under 10-1. But for many, tournament play is much different than real life play.