Pace Variaent Minutia

[SmartyMarty]

Been reading lotsa gab bout calculating pace variant stuff..
with wind..no wind
pace variant " head bobs" ????
on and on..

pace is an important factor but..
Don't you guys over do it?

Remember the little guys on the backs of these cripples
have lots to do with PACE...
Have you come up with a program or quadratic formula that figures that in?

Also
One final note..

These nags are different every time they set foot on the track..
Better to concentrate your efforts on trainer patterns than figs that may give you a false sense of confidence..

but on the other hand..
it may be a good thing , if it makes you a happier loser..

[cj]

I love the guys that know the ONLY way to win, so I guess I better just forget pace and speed and move to trainer patterns.

Forget that the following are pasted straight from my BrisBet account that I opened on Breeder's Cup day, 2002. I've been using mostly Pinnacle the last few months, but the results are similiar, plus rebates.


#

I'm not rich, won't give up my day job, but for betting around $50 a race, I think I'll stick with the numbers for now!

PS...Who said because you use detailed numbers it means you can't use trainer info as well? Do you really think I base a bet on a horse's last pace figure if he's first time Dutrow?

[Tom]

I am afraid you are going to have to give back that money, CJ, unless you can show evidence that you used more than just pace figs!;)

[cj]

To be honest, I shouldn't have posted that stuff and regret it now. I just get irked when someone who doesn't know what they are talking about starts spouting off about something I know is successful and claims it won't work.

Hell, it took those last few years to get me on the plus side playing horses for life I would imagine :)

[Buddha]

Originally posted by cj


I'm not rich, won't give up my day job, but for betting around $50 a race, I think I'll stick with the numbers for now!


I wouldnt either when my day job sends me to amsterdam and the olympics, and france and italy, etc :D

[sjk]

Think I'll keep using the minutia.

The guys who think we are all happy losers are half right anyway.

[Zaf]

I think I will continue use Pace numbers, which pointed me to $22.40, $17.80 , & $16.50 win mutuels yesterday. Basis for the above plays - Standout Pace Figures :) :D :cool:

ZAFONIC

[Tom]

So you guys are saying that pace works?:D

[sjk]

I find pace absolutely fundemental to dirt racing. At the same time there are plenty of other elements that can't be ignored.

[kenwoodallpromos]

No, this is a myth.
Everything in racing "depends" and is variable to certain degrees in certain circumstances. When handicapping by hand w/o a computer, you do better if you know the general tendencies of the horse and connections and then can adjust for the specific race.
You have to be flexible to a certain degree but you can certainly heavily consider factors that appear aa constant patterns in a horese's PP's.
I once saw on a horse's PP it only won every time it was shipped the north-south length of Ca but not when staying in the same are very long. Pace and distance were irrevelant.
I also often see purse size being a greater factor than pace; but many horses are creatures of habit and if they run well in herds or on turns or with a certain energy distribution they can very easily hold that pattern and often prefer to, and what looks like a race-specific variation may actually be the combination of pacelines of your horse and others in the race, running their usual pacelines within a current race, which may be different from their usual conditions, distances, track speeds, etc.
The better you understand the norm the better you can understand and adjust to the variables that present themselves and bet accordingly.
Or you can just stick to the same old same old beliefs and really be a loser.

[SmartyMarty]

These nags are different every time they set foot on the track..

No, this is a myth.



Perhaps I should clarify..
Horses are not machines..
Many have chronic infirmities etc...

Do you feel the SAME every day?
certainly NOT...
Their energy levels are products relating to a host of variables..

Hence they are DIFFERENT every time.
I took this quote from a very successful trainer (don't recall the name)

A very simple concept..

[Tom]

Another simple concept-paceline slection.
Yes, race to race they are different.
Win to win, they are much more similar than differnt for the mst part.

[delayjf]

Seems to me your rational for not using speed / pace figures would apply to trainer handicapping as well. At some point in the handicapping process you will have to ask, how good is this horse? An extreme example no doubt, but the best winning % trainer pattern with the highest ROI would not have beaten Secretriat in the Belmont.

[Zaf]

I use pace figures to:

1) Find horses that may be alone on the lead.

2) Find horses who are on the verge of improvement.

A lot of these pay between $10 - $20.

ZAFONIC

[hurrikane]

geez cj...

you obviously have not been paying attention up here.

You cannot beat this game. (formula 2002)

You cannot beat this game unless you do it my way (any number of other idiot ego's up here)


Get with it man! Start paying attention!

[DeoVolente]

Is this the great poster from the over and done with NYRA message board?

Joe S

[Diamond K]

I am truly impressed.
Imagine the money he saves if he bets. He only has to ask someone with a program who is riding or training "the horse that can never be the same". He doesn't have to invest or look at anything, ever.

Can you please post your selections as other do?

[NoDayJob]

:D You people just don't gittit. Fuggetta 'bout pace numbers, trainers, speed numbers, wind, velocity, milk shakes (I prefer chocolate), drugs, computers, the sheets, et cetera. The only way to win at the races is consulting the stars or using a ouija board and numerology. :D

NDJ

[wes]

NoDayJob
You ever had any dealings with heuristic analysis? When you do give us an update.

wes

[NoDayJob]

NoDayJob
You ever had any dealings with heuristic analysis? When you do give us an update.

wes

:lol: Concerning ouija boards, numerology or the stars? Ya know, Jakob Nielsen, might get a few hoo ha's if he reads this forum, say what? :lol:

NDJ

[46zilzal]

These nags are different every time they set foot on the track..
Better to concentrate your efforts on trainer patterns than figs that may give you a false sense of confidence..

Beg to differ, they have hardwired programs inside of them which rider and/or trainer can only BEND a little. Trainers TRY, riders try, but unless it is a champion under the saddle, little changes.