NFL Week 4

[Valuist]

6-3 ATS YTD. Its still early and I'm not overly crazy about this week so I'm going light.

BUFFALO +5.5 Going against defending SB champs here. Buffalo had their way w/them at home last year; Pats 2-0 but coming off a bye; don't like to see a team going good get their rhythm disrupted by a bye. NE has faced 1 good team and one awful team so far but both were weak defensively.

HOUSTON +122 moneyline (Pinnacle) Oakland has some solid D numbers but they are misleading, having faced woeful TB and Buffalo offenses and a struggling Steeler O also. Houston has moved the ball well so far but has been hurt by turnovers. After 2 road games I like them to get the outright win at home.

NYG/GB OVER 44 Both teams have some solid offensive weapons as well as real questions on the defensive side of the ball. Warner has gotten off to a nice start for his new team and Favre looked like the 1996 Favre last week. GB's secondary was really exposed last week.

[SAL]

Miami +6.5 vs NY Jets - Fiedler makes his return to the starting lineup, and I can't help but think that will have a positive effect on the offense. Feeley was awful, period. The defense remains one of the NFL's best, and they should keep this one close. The Jets have something to prove, beating the Bungles and the Chargers is not something to write home about.

Jacksonville +4 vs Indianapolis - The Jags keep getting the job done with their excellent defense. This will be Indy's 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks. That and the fact that their secondary is hurting makes me think the Jags can keep this close, if not win outright.

San Francisco +4 vs St. Louis - Yes, the Niners were outclassed last week vs Seattle. But the Seahawks are a much better team than the Rams, especially on defense (one of the best in the NFC in my opinion). In their previous games against Atlanta and New Orleans they had a chance to win. The Rams still don't play so well on natural grass either (6-14 ATS), so I'm leaning for at least a cover, if not an outright win.


Last week 2-1

[BigJake]

I don't want to dog your picks SAL but my favorite pick of the week is Indy -4. Indy has played Pats, Titans, and Pack. Two of thoses teams are possibly the best in their Conf. (Pats, Pack). Indy should have one every game. J-ville has played the up and coming (but still very average) Giants, Clevland and the Titans. None of the 3 will make the playoffs this year. J-ville is only the highest rated defense because of their schedule. Indy will expose them for the average team they really are.

Big Jake
(I am not even an Indy fan, the pitiful Chiefs are my team)

[JPinMaryland]

Houston +122. I dunno, sure Oak's defense sux and Houston has a great offense but covering a 122 pts this early in the season is doubtful. I'll take Oakland the 17 TDs.

Pick of the Week. How in the hell is Washington only a 2 1/2 or 3 pt fav over Bears? Didnt the bears just lose their qb and Erlacher isnt 100%? Skins played well in defeat, had two huge calls go against them.

[SAL]

Well BigJake, we shall see. Indy's hurting defensively in the secondary (see big game by Packers) and regardless of Jacksonville's schedule their defense is still one of better ones in the AFC. And you got your facts wrong, Jacksonville has played Tennessee, Denver, and Buffalo. Not the greatest schedule, but better than the chump teams that you mention.

Indy's defense is ranked LAST in the NFL, and both their starting safeties are out. And I can guarantee you that Indy will NOT score anywhere near 45 points Sunday

[Dan Montilion]

What is NFL?

Dan Montilion

[SAL]

And by the way JPinMaryland, the bet Valuist is talking about when he says +122 is a moneyline bet. That is a bet you make with no points involved. If you take Houston +122 that means you get $122 for every $100 you bet, not 122 points. And the Bears are playing Philly this week, not Washington.

[andicap]

Steelers over the Bengals giving the points. Bengals run defense is very soft and Carson Palmer is still learning how to play in the NFL. He's no better than the Steelers rookie QB and Steelers have better defense and can run a bit.

Was looking seriously at the Texans,but now not so sure. Collins is upgrade from Gannon, who was too old so Raiders should be better. Texans must get a pass rush on Collins to rattle him, not so sure they will.

Jags plus the points. They also play Indy tough and play close games. Gutsy team.

I'll take the Skins, as well.....Joe Gibbs will learn the league very quicly and not make the same mistakes he did last week.

[cj]

Originally posted by SAL
...The Rams still don't play so well on natural grass either (6-14 ATS), so I'm leaning for at least a cover, if not an outright win.


Not to mention they are the WORST coached team in the league!

[Skanoochies]

Green Bay -7. I expect Ahman Green to have a huge day this week.

Wash. -2.5. Andicapp, Gibbs shoulg get rid of G.Williams the off. co-ordinator. This guys play calling is horrible.

Carolina -3. Big game for them, plus Atl. dome/turf team outdoors on grass.

Same for St. Louis. I`ll take `99rs and the 4 points.

Good luck everybody.:cool:

[Valuist]

Sal-

Thanks for correcting the smart alec who didn't know what a moneyline was. You're dog picks are very interesting. I'm considering Jax although I'm probably passing. Indy's defense is still a problem. Miami's D is still one of the best but my concern is the lack of offense is going to wear out the D by them being on the field all game. I think those are all live dogs;

Jake-

Were you inferring the Packers were the best team in the NFC? I don't know how much of them you've seen but they are nowhere close to the top of the NFC. Philly and Seattle are much better teams right now, and Minnesota is the best team in the NFC North.

[BigJake]

First of all, SAL

I apologize for trying to quote schedules off the top of my head. However, J-ville has not had to face an offensive powerhouse.

Value,

I'll give you Seattle they are good. Alexander (my fantasy workhorse) could be the most valuable RB in the league. Min always chokes. You don't have to be a football fan to know that. And the most controvesial statement of the day . . . . . . . . . . . . .

PHILLY IS OVERRATED. They still have a shakey defense and there running game (minus McNabb) is something not to be desired. TO, dosen't make this team the best in the NFC.

Jake

[BigJake]

I started to gloat like a big jerk, but I realize how close The Indy game really was. Maybe I have overlooked J-ville somewhat.

Big Jake

[cj]

...and the referees probably screwed the Jags with that poor spot on 4th and 1 at the end. I don't think the replay justified an overturn, but it sure appeared he made it to me.

[brdman12]

I think the two biggest difference makers continue to be Curt Warner and Michael Vick. The Patriots and the Colts are the two best teams.