"Smart money" at Gulfstream

[thaskalos]

In today's 7th race at Gulfstream, the :1:Summer Mischief comfortably wired the field at odds of 3-1...and left me wondering: Is there anyone here who had this horse pegged as a 3-1 probability in that race? What sort of "algorithm" might have led someone to deduce that this horse was worth that short a price?

[lamboguy]

to make a long story short. i had that horse at least 20-1. but that is why i had to give up this game

[the little guy]

In today's 7th race at Gulfstream, the :1:Summer Mischief comfortably wired the field at odds of 3-1...and left me wondering: Is there anyone here who had this horse pegged as a 3-1 probability in that race? What sort of "algorithm" might have led someone to deduce that this horse was worth that short a price?

Assuming there weren't significant scratches, that's pretty remarkable. Were the pools especially small with so few places even open due to Easter?

I see the horse shows a strong recent work, and especially given it was a layoff, I wonder if there was a big workout report on him. Still, pretty surprising.

[thaskalos]

Assuming there weren't significant scratches, that's pretty remarkable. Were the pools especially small with so few places even open due to Easter?

I see the horse shows a strong recent work, and especially given it was a layoff, I wonder if there was a big workout report on him. Still, pretty surprising.

There were no scratches in the race...and $137,233 were wagered in the win-pool.

[deelo]

Roulette paid over $20 on an $8 winner. Strange overlay.

I would imagine Paco riding probably brought his odds down as well. Tryna make that money to supplement his 4-month vacation coming up.

[the little guy]

There were no scratches in the race...and $137,233 were wagered in the win-pool.

Thanks. I'll see if I can find out what the story was. Maybe he was a big CAW play, as their money REALLY dominates those pools, but on the surface of things that seems surprising. Clocker report is still the favorite but it's intriguing.

[thaskalos]

Thanks. I'll see if I can find out what the story was. Maybe he was a big CAW play, as their money REALLY dominates those pools, but on the surface of things that seems surprising. Clocker report is still the favorite but it's intriguing.

That was my initial reaction too...but it seems odd to me that this sort of horse would generate this level of betting interest merely on the strength of a lone workout. I could be wrong though...because workout analysis isn't a strong-suit of mine. And I also can't understand how such a horse could appeal to the algorithm-driven computer groups. Intriguing, indeed...

[cj]

That was my initial reaction too...but it seems odd to me that this sort of horse would generate this level of betting interest merely on the strength of a lone workout. I could be wrong though...because workout analysis isn't a strong-suit of mine. And I also can't understand how such a horse could appeal to the algorithm-driven computer groups. Intriguing, indeed...

Those guys certainly use workout reports.

[thaskalos]

Those guys certainly use workout reports.

Sure they do...but it's still a shock that this horse would go off at such a short price, IMO. This isn't the profile of the typical computer-group betdown selection...from what I have seen.

[linrom1]

In today's 7th race at Gulfstream, the :1:Summer Mischief comfortably wired the field at odds of 3-1...and left me wondering: Is there anyone here who had this horse pegged as a 3-1 probability in that race? What sort of "algorithm" might have led someone to deduce that this horse was worth that short a price?

That was a straightforward calculated choice.

The breeding(Into Mischief) on this horse was only second to suspect Maker's (9) horse and they paid $60k which is a fortune when compared to these types of horses running at GP now.

The KEY was Cibelli, I am not a big follower of what goes on at GP but Irad was a regular rider for this outfit, which to me was very telling. And I remember that she did very well at GP in cheap claiming races in past years on turf. I suspected her to be less than honest, but, then you look at Irad and whom does he ride for?

Lynch who was the originally scheduled to ride the horse also excels on turf compared to most jocks at GP.

Early speed, knew that jock switch to Paco would excel at.

* BULLET WORK 4/14 4f :47-2 1/18

The M/L favorite was a 3-year old vs older?

The only other horse in the race was the Get Stormy horse, but, I always think of Spatz as a Calder trainer, but he did train what used to be my favorite horse----CARTERISTA.

[Teentrifecta]

Didn't bet the race but did look at it today and he was definitely on the radar with the change to Paco.

The bullet work and class jump angle (I love) aside, it seems to me that lately whenever a jockey at Gulfstream (maybe its everywhere, don't really follow US racing) have 2 wins on the card they go into overdrive to get the third win as if their life depended on it, almost to the point I wonder if the jockeys bet amongst themselves or have some sort of pool incentive to get a triple. Was it worth 3-1? You guys (blows my mind reading through this site the advanced level of handicapping some of you operate at) would know better than I would.

Another thing I've noticed lately at Gulfstream is how underrated this Batista is on long shots to get a piece. Does anyone know if he use to ride at Charlestown or am I thinking of someone else?

[lansdale]

In today's 7th race at Gulfstream, the :1:Summer Mischief comfortably wired the field at odds of 3-1...and left me wondering: Is there anyone here who had this horse pegged as a 3-1 probability in that race? What sort of "algorithm" might have led someone to deduce that this horse was worth that short a price?

Hi Thask,

Seems a little weird to be posting in a handicapping thread, but FWIW, when I played GP and GPW turf courses in recent years, I found them to be far more speed-favoring than all but a few others. Why is this so? I'm not really sure, but their relatively fast 3F times suggested to me that that part of the track is built like a highway off-ramp. That seems to me the most persuasive reason for this horse's win. Horse's running style was E6, the others all EP, P, or S. Put it together with that workout -- maybe explains the price. Still, I would only have put this horse in gimmicks and bet the 9 to win.

Cheers,

lansdale

[deelo]

Didn't bet the race but did look at it today and he was definitely on the radar with the change to Paco.

The bullet work and class jump angle (I love) aside, it seems to me that lately whenever a jockey at Gulfstream (maybe its everywhere, don't really follow US racing) have 2 wins on the card they go into overdrive to get the third win as if their life depended on it, almost to the point I wonder if the jockeys bet amongst themselves or have some sort of pool incentive to get a triple. Was it worth 3-1? You guys (blows my mind reading through this site the advanced level of handicapping some of you operate at) would know better than I would.

Another thing I've noticed lately at Gulfstream is how underrated this Batista is on long shots to get a piece. Does anyone know if he use to ride at Charlestown or am I thinking of someone else?

Different Batistas

Luis at CT, Jose at GP

Related? I have no idea

[jay68802]

Ran the race through my computer, and he does figure here. Has a win at $18,000 at this distance on the turf. Good trainer, and is the lone E running style. The other 2 that might challenge for the lead are the :5: and :10:. The :5: regressed since being claimed from Drawing Away Stables and was off for a year after being claimed from Steven Miyadi. (OUCH) The :10: has never really been fast enough early to go with him anyway. So seeing this horse go wire to wire is not a stretch.

I would not want 3-1 however, horses like this on the turf at this distance need to be at 9-2 or higher for me to play them.

[Half Smoke]

when insiders bet down an unlikely contender and the horse does well there is often a lot of talk

but the insiders lose a lot to the time too - but when they lose there isn't much talk

then there are the wannabee insiders - for example they see a loser claimed by a trainer they suspect of drug violations and then think the trainer is a miracle worker

I once saw a horse who lost his last race by 35 lengths, the previous race by 27 lengths and did not finish the race before that get claimed by one of these suspicious trainers and get bet down to 7/2

ridiculous

[FakeNameChanged]

Clearly this one fits my wife's old same-name in a race angle. Two horses named Mischief in a race?-bet them both. On a serious note, I wouldn't have expected :1: 's odds to be as low or lower than the :2: :3: or :9: Five workouts with the last one a bullet running around the dogs has to be the main contributor. Not a regular follower of Section II Racing LLC, they may be worth following.

[barn32]

Maybe he was a big CAW play, as their money REALLY dominates those pools...What does CAW stand for?

This isn't the profile of the typical computer-group betdown selection...from what I have seen.What does the profile of the typical computer-group betdown selection look like?

[johnhenry81]

The bullet work on April 14 At PMM was shared with Speed Franco, a multiple stakes winner and was 3/5's faster than the 3rd worker.

Dont know if the top two were in company.

jh

[Tom]

HTR had him listed a "Bomb" and if go back to his good form last summer, he had a big early advantage over the field.
Their line had him 10-1

[Suff]

He was hit at the win spot, was hovering 7-1, 5-1 approach the gate, went at $3.30. They didn't catch up to the double. The probable was $80 when I bet this 5 min to post, and still paid $76. 190 for $5

Summer Mischief jockey changed to Lopez P



https://i.ibb.co/y0NLk0x/lopex-1.png

[lamboguy]

my guess is that they found something wrong with the horse and corrected it. worked the horse with a jockey or an exercise rider that had been on him before, and reported a big positive change in the way the horse went in the a.m.

under those premise's if correct, anyone of a number of people could have known the improvement and decided to take their speculations to the mutual window's. if it was me and it was 30 years ago, i would have been running up and down the Vegas strip betting into non-parimutuel pools, and bet with any handbook that took thoroughbred action.`

[the little guy]

This horse's odds had little to nothing to do with who was riding it.

[Tom]

This is the kind of race and betting that just fills the seats....at the racino.

Nothing worse for the game this kind of thing.

FWIW anyone who bets GP deserves what they get.
I wouldn't play GP with your money if you drove me to the track and bought me lunch.

[Suff]

This horse's odds had little to nothing to do with who was riding it.

for me it did'nt because mine was just a lopez/lopez double. As far as what effect the leading rider had by picking up a late mount in this spot, I'd defer to you.

[the little guy]

for me it did'nt because mine was just a lopez/lopez double. As far as what effect the leading rider had by picking up a late mount in this spot, I'd defer to you.

Given he had over $15K more bet to win on him ( and I'm assuming much more in exotics ) than could reasonably have been expected, it's utterly impossible that the rider played much of a role in betting. Oh to live in a betting universe where significant odds swings occurred for that reason.

While rider changes may well be part of some ( or even all ) big player's models, I doubt it is a significant enough percentage to have created this action.

Doesn't anyone ever wonder about the handle numbers down there?

[Saratoga_Mike]

Given he had over $15K more bet to win on him ( and I'm assuming much more in exotics ) than could reasonably have been expected, it's utterly impossible that the rider played much of a role in betting. Oh to live in a betting universe where significant odds swings occurred for that reason.

While rider changes may well be part of some ( or even all ) big player's models, I doubt it is a significant enough percentage to have created this action.

Doesn't anyone ever wonder about the handle numbers down there?

As in the numbers reported by the track (on a daily and/or end-of-year press release basis) don't seem to foot to the numbers reported to the state (available in the FY annual report)?

[AlsoEligible]

What does CAW stand for?

Computer Assisted Wagering

A lot of people will also say "Computer Automated Wagering", but there's an important distinction between the two, as most jurisdictions don't allow completely robotic/automated wagering, and by law a human being has to be submitting the bets.

So their models will spit out a list of 1-2k bets to be submitted, and a human operator will hit the "send" button as close to the bell as they can. Hence the computer is only "assisting" in the wagering, not fully "automating" it.

[Tom]

Track-speak for FU, they bet more than your ever will. Who cares about you, moron?

[Robert Fischer]

"What a surprise"
https://www.hbo.com/content/dam/hbodata/series/luck/characters/turo-escalante-1920.jpg/_jcr_content/renditions/cq5dam.web.1200.675.jpeg

[classhandicapper]

I think it's highly likely it was people that knew the horse was training especially well (the workouts).

Whenever I see a horse taking a lot of money I don't understand, the first two things I check are the workouts and if there are any trainer patterns I am unaware of.

I can't tell you who bets big off workouts. It could be clockers, handicappers that get clocker reports, trainers/owners that know how well the horses is doing compared to the past, or just handicappers that put weight on them, but especially good and improved workouts often take a lot of money unless the horse always works that way. I'd have to add that in many cases the horses will run improved or peak efforts. So people that pay attention and evaluate these things well are not being stupid.

[bob60566]

If you look at each of the last three running lines for the horse in the vertical from start to finish. Not the horizontal that most look at.

Then ignore the layoff but not the jockey switch it does tell a story.

[dansan]

8th race parx today the :9: pays $38.60 highest last beyer dropping in class im more intrigued by that payoff than the :1: from gulfstream

[bob60566]

8th race parx today the :9: pays $38.60 highest last beyer dropping in class im more intrigued by that payoff than the :1: from gulfstream

Had look and had to think on PP The horse would regress off the number and would not repeat.????????????

[Zman179]

December to March: World class racing with the best jockeys and trainers.

April to November: As crooked as Calder ever was, just at a nicer facility in a nicer neighborhood.

[biggestal99]

Track-speak for FU, they bet more than your ever will. Who cares about you, moron?


since its Gulfstream the really, really big FU, you can only bet the track into the CAW pools legally. no fixed odds betting for you.


now other some tracks allow the choice between the CAW pools and fixed odds betting.



Those are the tracks i patronize. :-)


Allan

[dansan]

I call that over analyze hanicapping

[Robert Fischer]

I call that over analyze hanicapping
yea?