Keeneland Speed Bias

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Anybody that has been watching and wagering won't be surprised.


https://twitter.com/EJXD2/status/1115362527515500544

[classhandicapper]

It's not even just the winner. On Saturday the entire race flows favored speed.

[Tom]

17% w-w doesn't sound all that high.
Looks like an early presser bias

[cj]

It's not even just the winner. On Saturday the entire race flows favored speed.

I don't buy this as we talk about in our pacecast. Somewhat speed favoring, sure, maybe, but I don't think it was a strong bias. A lot of heavy favorites were included and there were some horses that ran pretty well from further back and out in the track.

[metro]

Would throw in three baby races, that are always dominated by speed, are part of the 29. A couple of off the turf races as well that reduced the field sizes significantly

[Robert Fischer]

Yea. Beyond stats, when you look at things like race-flow and/or bias, you have to consider 'expected' vs. 'results'.


I don't buy this as we talk about in our pacecast. Somewhat speed favoring, sure, maybe, but I don't think it was a strong bias. A lot of heavy favorites were included and there were some horses that ran pretty well from further back and out in the track.


Would throw in three baby races, that are always dominated by speed, are part of the 29. A couple of off the turf races as well that reduced the field sizes significantly

[classhandicapper]

I don't buy this as we talk about in our pacecast. Somewhat speed favoring, sure, maybe, but I don't think it was a strong bias. A lot of heavy favorites were included and there were some horses that ran pretty well from further back and out in the track.

I have an automated model that looks at the race flow of each race relative to the norms at that distance and on that surface nationally. It spits out an overall flow and front runner rating for the day. One standard deviation difference from average gets flagged and two standard deviations gets a "+" or "-".

After that, I review the day's races visually and based on my own handicapping and sometimes override the automated rating.

My preliminary note is FlowS GR2P without any pluses, but I only watched the stakes replays so far. That's a pretty rare notation for me, but I differentiate between the front runners and the overall race flow (long conversation) and sometimes make multiple path biases.

So basically I'm saying I'd rather have been up close and on one of the 2 inside paths that day more so than on the typical day at a major racetrack in the US, but it wasn't so strong it was impossible to run well from the back or outside or I'd have given it a "+".

[Half Smoke]

the Equibase race of the day (trackmaster selection) nailed a 6/1 shot today -

Keeneland race 4 the #6


My Midnight Affair dropped into Maiden Claiming from a Maiden Special


I'm surprised the class drop didn't attract more betting interest as she had done pretty well in the Maiden Specials she ran in

do you think the public didn't consider it a class drop because the purse was higher?
I'm not sure

he nailed the win, the exacta and the tri naming 3 horses


https://www.equibase.com/products/dailyselection.cfm?SAP=ROTD

[Half Smoke]

the Equibase race of the day (trackmaster selection) nailed a 6/1 shot today -

Keeneland race 4 the #6


My Midnight Affair dropped into Maiden Claiming from a Maiden Special


I'm surprised the class drop didn't attract more betting interest as she had done pretty well in the Maiden Specials she ran in

do you think the public didn't consider it a class drop because the purse was higher?
I'm not sure

he nailed the win, the exacta and the tri naming 3 horses


https://www.equibase.com/products/dailyselection.cfm?SAP=ROTD


I guess they didn't see it as a class drop since the Specials were at Turfway


yes I do know that this doesn't mean you can get filthy rich by just betting Equibase's race of the day

[Afleet]

I guess they didn't see it as a class drop since the Specials were at Turfway


yes I do know that this doesn't mean you can get filthy rich by just betting Equibase's race of the day

definitely due to Turfway

[taxicab]

IDK....
I think the outside is the big disadvantage.
If you're drawn outside,you better get to the inside pronto.......or you're cooked.

[classhandicapper]

I watched the rest of the races on Saturday.

There are speed favoring days where front runners kind of dominate. You might see a couple of horses put up lifetime top speed figure and win by huge margins and/or longshots win or hold on much better than expected etc...

I also see a different kind of speed bias.

There are speed favoring days where horses on the lead aren't necessarily dominating or winning big. But the overall race flows top to bottom have less movement than usual.

I can't explain the difference, but I think Keeneland was the 2nd kind of day on Saturday.

Some of the horses on the lead were very logical. But overall, in fields like that there was less movement than you typically see unless it was a very slow paced race.

Most of the winners also spent a lot of time on the rail or staking just outside. A few horses that tried to rally far outside on the turn did some running late, but a few never got going or hung late.

I think it was a day that put a greater premium on being on the inside paths and close up than the typical day on a dirt track in the US.

[taxicab]

The worm has turned.....
Yesterday the deep closers had no problem skating home out in the middle.
Probably no bias now.

[classhandicapper]

The worm has turned.....
Yesterday the deep closers had no problem skating home out in the middle.
Probably no bias now.

That's not unusual.

I didn't look at yesterday, but I looked at the few days prior to Saturday and I think all those were biased too. So if anything, the prior days give support to the fact that Saturday wasn't fully honest.

[cj]

The worm has turned.....
Yesterday the deep closers had no problem skating home out in the middle.
Probably no bias now.

Track was much slower for sure also.

[Franco Santiago]

I have an automated model that looks at the race flow of each race relative to the norms at that distance and on that surface nationally. It spits out an overall flow and front runner rating for the day. One standard deviation difference from average gets flagged and two standard deviations gets a "+" or "-".

After that, I review the day's races visually and based on my own handicapping and sometimes override the automated rating.

My preliminary note is FlowS GR2P without any pluses, but I only watched the stakes replays so far. That's a pretty rare notation for me, but I differentiate between the front runners and the overall race flow (long conversation) and sometimes make multiple path biases.

So basically I'm saying I'd rather have been up close and on one of the 2 inside paths that day more so than on the typical day at a major racetrack in the US, but it wasn't so strong it was impossible to run well from the back or outside or I'd have given it a "+".


Class:
Has race flow analysis given you an edge over the rest of the bettors? I have often wondered if it does. Thx.


FS

[classhandicapper]

Class:
Has race flow analysis given you an edge over the rest of the bettors? I have often wondered if it does. Thx.


FS

I tested it on all the major tracks over the last 4 1/2 years using my own automated process. I'd say it's VERY fertile grounds for value.

1. The "upgrades" were break even and the "strong upgrades" were mildly profitable. However, that's with no handicapping or odds rules at all other than the horse has to be coming back on the same surface and be more comfortably spotted today based on my automated projection for today's race flow.

2. The "Downgrades" and "strong downgrades" both performed way worse than the track take. They had to be coming back on the same surface, but they has to be spotted in an uncomfortable situation today based on my automated projection for today's race flow.

So what I am looking for is horses that are moving from very unfavorable conditions to at least neutral or favorable conditions today and horses that are moving from very favorable conditions to at least neutral or unfavorable conditions today.

I am developing the same process for testing speed and closer bias upgrades and downgrades. I haven't had time to finish and test it.

In my live betting, I use these automated systems to analyze race flows and bias in the charts, make projections, upgrade/downgrade horses etc.. but I always review what the computer says and sometimes override it because I can't code for everything that comes up.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Track was much slower for sure also.


Tough track yesterday.



The best horses earned it.



Hit a couple, and nailed on the wire on some exotics as usual so I won't complain. :ThmbUp: