Late Money at Keeneland

[Dahossdaboss]

9/2 to 5/2 in last minute on the recent winner of the 5th. Happened a few times since they opened yesterday.

That’s a pretty nice sized wager in the last minute or so to drop the odds like that

[sour grapes]

9/2 to 5/2 in last minute on the recent winner of the 5th. Happened a few times since they opened yesterday.

That’s a pretty nice sized wager in the last minute or so to drop the odds like that

where have you been,this has been happening at all tracks for years.

[Dahossdaboss]

where have you been,this has been happening at all tracks for years.

I realize this. I just don’t remember it at Keeneland before.

[cj]

I realize this. I just don’t remember it at Keeneland before.

Agree, I mean it happens but it has been pretty extreme the first two days of the meet.

[Robert Fischer]

this one almost seemed like barn/owner $$.

20k claimer
trainer not a big name popular operation(where a whale may have tabs set up)
I don't know... Could have been a big bettor if it was an obvious ml overlay...

Tuned in late today, but looking at the Program, may have simply been a sharp horse running below his class.

Did he lose the horse ?

fudge it... looking up the chart

wow... was close for 1st... 'hard fought'

close call :cool:

Amoss/moss got him

they must be at the windows / i got shut out twice today as they were still loading on twinspires lag

[Robert Fischer]

wow, thought Vekoma was higher than 7/5 ..

[cutchemist42]

https://twitter.com/Racingwithbruno/status/1114660008308936705

[PaceAdvantage]

I realize this. I just don’t remember it at Keeneland before.I talked about it last year in a race at Keeneland. Winning horse went from 11-1 in the gate to 9/2 or (or was it 7/2) at the wire...I was, as expected, pretty pissed off.

[cj]

https://twitter.com/Racingwithbruno/status/1114660008308936705

Yep, seems odd for a place that it is supposedly tougher to get big rebates.

[Tom]

Racing loses credibility everytime this happens.
Too bad no one gives a crap about it in those meetings where we don't what they talk about. :rolleyes:

Hookers and dope dealers have more cred than tracks do.

For what it's worth, no one will ever convince me betting after the gates open is not happening regularly. Why on earth would I believe anyone in the industry who tells me no?

[burnsy]

Racing loses credibility everytime this happens.
Too bad no one gives a crap about it in those meetings where we don't what they talk about. :rolleyes:

Hookers and dope dealers have more cred than tracks do.

For what it's worth, no one will ever convince me betting after the gates open is not happening regularly. Why on earth would I believe anyone in the industry who tells me no?


I don’t know if there’s post betting but some of these big bets (bettors) can bet at the last second. I won’t say “cheating” but once again it’s the “not really a problem “ attitude that makes it worse.

When you bet that kind of money , you don’t care about the odds as much , you just have to cash enough times.

I am a loose cannon, a guy that uses numbers to bet what my gut tells me. Kind of lazy but I can see things from different angles. That’s why I poke fun at people stuck on one horse or method. I am a dinosaur in a other words. It’s kind of how every advanced horse player used to play and exactas are still my main bet.

I was just wondering if any of the number people have studied the percentage of these kinds of horses winning or placing. I’m talking about the ones that take obvious hits as the race progresses. That’s what I want to know. What ratio of these horses win or place? Are there any numbers or solid evidence on the outcome. I usually only bet two tracks max at a time but it seems to me that these horses do pretty good. Which makes it kind of worse IMO.

[JeremyJet]

check out this report on the integrity of the wagering pools. I think this report was written in 2010, so i can just imagine what's going on these days.

24417

[JeremyJet]

check out this report on the integrity of the wagering pools. I think this report was written in 2010, so i can just imagine what's going on these days.

24417

I'm not sure if I posted that PDF correctly. Search for the following if you can't see the PDF:

Surveillance of Parimutuel Wagering Integrity Using Expert Systems and Machine Learning.

[cutchemist42]

I don’t know if there’s post betting but some of these big bets (bettors) can bet at the last second. I won’t say “cheating” but once again it’s the “not really a problem “ attitude that makes it worse.

When you bet that kind of money , you don’t care about the odds as much , you just have to cash enough times.

I am a loose cannon, a guy that uses numbers to bet what my gut tells me. Kind of lazy but I can see things from different angles. That’s why I poke fun at people stuck on one horse or method. I am a dinosaur in a other words. It’s kind of how every advanced horse player used to play and exactas are still my main bet.

I was just wondering if any of the number people have studied the percentage of these kinds of horses winning or placing. I’m talking about the ones that take obvious hits as the race progresses. That’s what I want to know. What ratio of these horses win or place? Are there any numbers or solid evidence on the outcome. I usually only bet two tracks max at a time but it seems to me that these horses do pretty good. Which makes it kind of worse IMO.

How is that not known yet? I bet it's atleast break even and if you include the rebate they are likely getting...

I do always like to have bet365 or orbitexchange open when watching the pools to see if anything seems out of the ordinary.

[Jeff P]

Just now, Mon 04-08-2019 -- Tote delay Parx R6:

Before the tote delay:
Exacta pool: 36k
Winning exacta combo 1-6: $57

After the tote delay:
Exacta pool: 68k
Winning exacta combo 1-6: $28

Any questions about the accuracy of late money? :rolleyes:


-jp

.

[lamboguy]

Just now, Mon 04-08-2019 -- Tote delay Parx R6:

Before the tote delay:
Exacta pool: 36k
Winning exacta combo 1-6: $57

After the tote delay:
Exacta pool: 68k
Winning exacta combo 1-6: $28

Any questions about the accuracy of late money? :rolleyes:


-jp

.i surrendered from day to day betting. i got killed more than my share and threw in the white towel/ i am not going up against after the bell players. i suspect if this goes on much longer, all that will be in the pools will be the after the bellers.

[Jeff P]

Just to be fair --

A few minutes ago (Mon 04-08-2019) Parx R8:

#6 Trolley Ride the 2-1 morning line favorite, was let go at 10-1, and paid $23.80 to win. (This time the late money wasn't so accurate.)


-jp

.

[the little guy]

Yes, because the late odds changes are a result of CAW money. I'm not sure why there is even any confusion over this.

[thaskalos]

Just to be fair --

A few minutes ago (Mon 04-08-2019) Parx R8:

#6 Trolley Ride the 2-1 morning line favorite, was let go at 10-1, and paid $23.80 to win. (This time the late money wasn't so accurate.)


-jp

.

In that race...did Trolley Ride look like the 2-1 favorite according to you, Jeff?

[Robert Fischer]

Yes, because the late odds changes are a result of CAW money. I'm not sure why there is even any confusion over this.

Is the CAW money 'batched' so that it's coming into the system late, or is it simply bet at the gate?

[AlsoEligible]

Is the CAW money 'batched' so that it's coming into the system late, or is it simply bet at the gate?

It's "batched" in the sense that the whales will ship a big group of bets (something like 1000-2000 individual bets) to the tote all at once. However those bets are still processed individually, and each bet still has to get in before the off time. So if the gate opens and the tote has only processed half of the batch, the remaining bets would be rejected.

Once the gate opens, the tote locks the pools, no more bets allowed.

Now this is where the usual suspects will tell me their anecdotes from Timbuktu Downs twenty years ago, where all the tellers punched after the bell and never got locked out. Maybe that was true in the early days of simulcasting, when the technology was new and issues were more rampant. Nowadays, there are still rare cases of past-posting, but its far from the norm, and to my knowledge there has never been an past-posting incident involving whales.

The issue lies with money being bet right up against the bell, and the latency in getting all of that last-second money gathered by the host tote system, final odds calculated, and final odds posted back to infield boards, tv displays, etc. It's just too slow. Money's not coming in late, but when the odds are still finishing up halfway through the race, you can't blame the public for assuming the worst.

It's an issue that has been talked about within the industry, a lot, but still comes down to the same old question of "who's paying for it." Despite the fact that this hurts racing as a whole, no one's volunteering to pony up the funding to upgrade the infrastructure, software, etc.

[Jeff P]

In that race...did Trolley Ride look like the 2-1 favorite according to you, Jeff?

No.

At no time before the race went off did I ever see the horse as having a 0.3333 win prob.

4th best overall based on JPR or JCapper Power Rating.

Some of the newer stuff I am working on (programmable algos) had the horse ranked 1st in likelihood of being an overlay. (The number highlighted in blue towards the lower right in the image below.)

FWIW, those same programmable algos spit out a 0.1479 win prob or about 5.76 to 1. (The number highlighted in green towards the lower right in the image below.)

I guess I posted about this horse because I kept expecting the odds to come down and (this time) the late money went elsewhere.



-jp

.

[king kong]

Foxboro 25 years ago mutual manger fired betting during simo of Aqueduct, during and after!

[thaskalos]

Foxboro 25 years ago mutual manger fired betting during simo of Aqueduct, during and after!

During and after WHAT?

[king kong]

During and after the race was going and gone!

[king kong]

More than once!

[lamboguy]

During and after the race was going and gone!
that place had a tote system that always had plenty of time to bet the race after the break.

but the incident you are referring too was when the tote remained open after the race and that money never went back to the host track and Foxboro had to pay the winning ticket holders out of their own pockets. the tote manager didn't pick up on it until 20 minutes after the race was official and the customers had cashed out and were long gone.

[Gorrex]

What AlsoEligible said is 100% true.

There are three things that seperate a "regular" player from a CAW. Some regular players will have bits of it.. but not all and not to the degree they do.

Ability to process PP data to create their own lines extremely efficiently.

Capability to process odds on many tracks simultaneously to automatically look for overlays and value.

Finally if those two line up the ability to create hundreds and thousands of wagers on one race in seconds.


Tote systems are VERY good (better than most systems) at accepting wagers AND only doing so before post time. However, they absolutely suck at aggregating them all in a timely fashion.

As I've said many times... that last tick can be as much as 2 minutes worth of wagering (before post time) in extreme cases. FAR more than just CAW guys are in that last click.

EVERY case I've known of "past posting" was never actually that.. it was always that the judge/steward/tote person forgot to hit the post button and the race never did actually post. Thus everyone could still wager. In fact on many CAW systems they do not test for or compensate for that possibility so they can't take advantage of it.

I've built CAW systems, I've built ADWs and I've worked for tote and racetracks.

[king kong]

Raynham dog track in the early 70s had that issue! Perfecta pay outs dropped

[lamboguy]

What AlsoEligible said is 100% true.

There are three things that seperate a "regular" player from a CAW. Some regular players will have bits of it.. but not all and not to the degree they do.

Ability to process PP data to create their own lines extremely efficiently.

Capability to process odds on many tracks simultaneously to automatically look for overlays and value.

Finally if those two line up the ability to create hundreds and thousands of wagers on one race in seconds.


Tote systems are VERY good (better than most systems) at accepting wagers AND only doing so before post time. However, they absolutely suck at aggregating them all in a timely fashion.

As I've said many times... that last tick can be as much as 2 minutes worth of wagering (before post time) in extreme cases. FAR more than just CAW guys are in that last click.

EVERY case I've known of "past posting" was never actually that.. it was always that the judge/steward/tote person forgot to hit the post button and the race never did actually post. Thus everyone could still wager. In fact on many CAW systems they do not test for or compensate for that possibility so they can't take advantage of it.

I've built CAW systems, I've built ADWs and I've worked for tote and racetracks.---let me enlighten you. back in the mid 90's, it went on for over a year over your tote service. NYRA was forced to lock out wagering when the first horse entered the gate.

Amtote was not the worst by any stretch of the imagination, Autotote was a complete joke. and by the way, tote machines remain open to this day in places like Dover and Harrington for the live product and The Red Mile for simulcast. to this day i have never seen an ADW that allowed wagering on a race after the start.

[Gorrex]

I worked at Dover and Harrington.

All of those instances were because the judges did not post the race. Anyone anywhere could have bet after the gate opened until someone woke up in tote/judges and realized it wasn't locked.

It was SO common there for the judges to forget we got in a habit of walking through the prompts to override them and post ourselves from tote as the gate was moving.

But again.. no actual past post betting.. just no post of the race when it should have been.

[Gorrex]

Again.. the real problem is the amount of time it takes each tote system to aggregate the wagers made into them and transmit through to the host system.

CHRB proposed a 5 second limit after post time for calculations and transmission but everyone balked at it as impossible. They SHOULD implement that and give an X year window to make it possible with milestones leading up to it. Each system connected should have to explain in detail any discrepancies causing them to miss the 5 second limit and have their wagers no-merged from the pools for that race.

This SHOULD happen within 1-2 seconds of post and there is no real barrier to that. Worst case latency should be ~500ms which leaves plenty of calculation time on both sides.

[lamboguy]

I worked at Dover and Harrington.

All of those instances were because the judges did not post the race. Anyone anywhere could have bet after the gate opened until someone woke up in tote/judges and realized it wasn't locked.

It was SO common there for the judges to forget we got in a habit of walking through the prompts to override them and post ourselves from tote as the gate was moving.

But again.. no actual past post betting.. just no post of the race when it should have been.they have 50 people standing in front of self wagering machines making bets on Dover and Harrington once the race starts with the blessings of management at those venues.

[thaskalos]

I worked at Dover and Harrington.

All of those instances were because the judges did not post the race. Anyone anywhere could have bet after the gate opened until someone woke up in tote/judges and realized it wasn't locked.

It was SO common there for the judges to forget we got in a habit of walking through the prompts to override them and post ourselves from tote as the gate was moving.

But again.. no actual past post betting.. just no post of the race when it should have been.

A few years ago, a race was run at Yonkers where 2 longshots from the far outside post positions jumped to the front of the pack...and stayed there until the finish wire. I don't recall what the winner paid...but the exacta payoff was only about 10% of what it should have been, given the odds of the respective horses. We debated the outcome and the exacta payoff on this board...and we took turns speculating whether the race might have been "fixed"...whether past-posting had taken place...or whether some lucky guy just made an optimistic wager on his birthday. And then Lamboguy joined the conversation and stated that, not only had past-posting taken place...but he was confident that the past-posting incident had taken place at the Red Mile racetrack. It was the sort of off-the-cuff comment that could not have been taken seriously...and I doubt that even one person here gave it a bit of credence. And yet...the pending "investigation", although stopping short of declaring it a "past-posting incident"...revealed that the questionable exacta wagers on that race were indeed placed at the Red Mile racetrack. I have been active on this board for 15 years now...and I have never been as impressed by a declaration as I was by that Lamboguy post. And I remember it whenever a well-informed person comes here to tell us about how sure he is about the "integrity" of our game's mutuel pools.

[cj]

A few years ago, a race was run at Yonkers where 2 longshots from the far outside post positions jumped to the front of the pack...and stayed there until the finish wire. I don't recall what the winner paid...but the exacta payoff was only about 10% of what it should have been, given the odds of the respective horses. We debated the outcome and the exacta payoff on this board...and we took turns speculating whether the race might have been "fixed"...whether past-posting had taken place...or whether some lucky guy just made an optimistic wager on his birthday. And then Lamboguy joined the conversation and stated that, not only had past-posting taken place...but he was confident that the past-posting incident had taken place at the Red Mile racetrack. It was the sort of off-the-cuff comment that could not have been taken seriously...and I doubt that even one person here gave it a bit of credence. And yet...the pending "investigation", although stopping short of declaring it a "past-posting incident"...revealed that the questionable exacta wagers on that race were indeed placed at the Red Mile racetrack. I have been active on this board for 15 years now...and I have never been as impressed by a declaration as I was by that Lamboguy post. And I remember it whenever a well-informed person comes here to tell us about how sure he is about the "integrity" of our game's mutuel pools.

Wasn't there a recent incident where the Red Mile was involved and supposedly, without admitting there was an edge betting there outright, they said changes were being made and that edge would go away?

I think it might be in this thread but I don't have the time right now to find it:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=2300455

[thaskalos]

Wasn't there a recent incident where the Red Mile was involved and supposedly, without admitting there was an edge betting there outright, they said changes were being made and that edge would go away?

I think it might be in this thread but I don't have the time right now to find it:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=2300455

I vaguely remember us talking about this before...but I don't recall the specifics. The main point is...if a track is so corrupt, or so incompetent, as to allow past-posting to take place up until recently...why should they be believed when they say that they've "rectified" the situation?

[castaway01]

Wasn't there a recent incident where the Red Mile was involved and supposedly, without admitting there was an edge betting there outright, they said changes were being made and that edge would go away?

I think it might be in this thread but I don't have the time right now to find it:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=2300455

As far as the Red Mile, in that thread they're discussing the same exacta bet-down "incident" Thaskalos/Lamboguy are referring to (Lamboguy said it was "a few years ago" but that it happens all the time at harness tracks). I didn't see anything about them making changes, but the thread switched to talking about other incidents at other tracks.

To be fair, after Lamboguy says there are 50 guys waiting in line to past-post at these tracks and he could show us today, PA asks him for video of it and he doesn't provide any.

[thaskalos]

As far as the Red Mile, in that thread they're discussing the same exacta bet-down "incident" Thaskalos/Lamboguy are referring to (Lamboguy said it was "a few years ago" but that it happens all the time at harness tracks). I didn't see anything about them making changes, but the thread switched to talking about other incidents at other tracks.

To be fair, after Lamboguy says there are 50 guys waiting in line to past-post at these tracks and he could show us today, PA asks him for video of it and he doesn't provide any.

Were you surprised when Lamboguy's Red Mile prediction was proven right in that case? What would be the odds that he just scored with a "lucky guess"?

[Gorrex]

I don't doubt that it happened there and I KNOW it used to happen at some. It isn't nefarious though, its just simply human error. That said, the people responsible should have been fired decades ago but probably still work there.

When those incidents happen the people most in a position to take advantage are those that have 5-6 personal betting machines sitting around them with wagers prequeued slamming the repeat button until it posts and stops them.. People that have done it for a while can get multiple wagers per second out that way.

This isnt happening at tellers or self-serves as its just not convenient AND likely to give away what is happening. Its possible but not as easy on ADWs due to latency. However on dedicated personal tote machines its not only possible, but done every single race hoping the judge/tote messes up. Every tote vendor has a TIM/Profile/etc.. that this can be done on.

Again.. not past posting as the race did NOT post.

I've literally seen that exact scenario happen 5-6 times.

[Jeff P]

I don't doubt that it happened there and I KNOW it used to happen at some. It isn't nefarious though, its just simply human error. That said, the people responsible should have been fired decades ago but probably still work there.

When those incidents happen the people most in a position to take advantage are those that have 5-6 personal betting machines sitting around them with wagers prequeued slamming the repeat button until it posts and stops them.. People that have done it for a while can get multiple wagers per second out that way.

This isnt happening at tellers or self-serves as its just not convenient AND likely to give away what is happening. Its possible but not as easy on ADWs due to latency. However on dedicated personal tote machines its not only possible, but done every single race hoping the judge/tote messes up. Every tote vendor has a TIM/Profile/etc.. that this can be done on.

Again.. not past posting as the race did NOT post.

I've literally seen that exact scenario happen 5-6 times.

Re: the bolded part of the above quote --

Are protocols in place that enable every parimutuel bet taker (ADWs, offshore rebate houses, thoroughbred tracks, harness tracks, dog tracks, otbs, etc.) to KNOW when somebody has queued up after the bell wagers and is repeatedly hitting the submit button in hopes that the current race will turn out to be one of the 5-7 instances per year where the host track fails to execute a stop wagering signal in a timely manner?

Are such protocols in place?

If not, why not?

Is queuing up after the bell wagers and repeatedly hitting the submit button in hopes that the current race will turn out to be one of the 5-7 instances per year where the host track fails to execute a stop wagering signal in a timely manner not considered cheating?

If not, why not?

If I were in a casino and were caught attempting to cheat (in any manner whatsoever) I would fully expect to be ruled off the premises!



-jp

.

[cj]

As far as the Red Mile, in that thread they're discussing the same exacta bet-down "incident" Thaskalos/Lamboguy are referring to (Lamboguy said it was "a few years ago" but that it happens all the time at harness tracks). I didn't see anything about them making changes, but the thread switched to talking about other incidents at other tracks.

To be fair, after Lamboguy says there are 50 guys waiting in line to past-post at these tracks and he could show us today, PA asks him for video of it and he doesn't provide any.

I guess I read about it on Twitter. The advantage that some tracks had has been taken away is the gist of it.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I worked at Dover and Harrington.

All of those instances were because the judges did not post the race. Anyone anywhere could have bet after the gate opened until someone woke up in tote/judges and realized it wasn't locked.

It was SO common there for the judges to forget we got in a habit of walking through the prompts to override them and post ourselves from tote as the gate was moving.

But again.. no actual past post betting.. just no post of the race when it should have been.

Why did this just happen at Dover and Harrington? Why didn't it happen at Delaware Park? I've never experienced it at Delaware Park, and I've bet on over 1,000 of their live races. Same regulator?

[Gorrex]

Re: the bolded part of the above quote --

Are protocols in place that enable every parimutuel bet taker (ADWs, offshore rebate houses, thoroughbred tracks, harness tracks, dog tracks, otbs, etc.) to KNOW when somebody is queuing up after the bell wagers and repeatedly hitting the submit button in hopes that the current race will turn out to be one of the 5-7 instances per year where the host track fails to execute a stop wagering signal in a timely manner?

Are such protocols in place?

Is queuing up after the bell wagers and repeatedly hitting the submit button in hopes that the current race will turn out to be one of the 5-7 instances per year where the host track fails to execute a stop wagering signal in a timely manner considered cheating?

If not, why not?

If I were in a casino and were caught attempting to cheat (in any manner whatsoever) I would fully expect to be ruled off the premises!



-jp

.


"Protocols" exist to some degree in two places.

1. On individual ADWs in their own systems (there are no rules or standards though).
2. For most US thoroughbred tracks the TRPB gets wagering information and can run analytics after the fact. They do catch some things. They wanted a realtime system but the industry squashed it due to cost. (and it WAS many many times what it should have cost honestly) For greyhound and harness there is no such system to my knowledge.

Is it cheating? Technically no the race didn't post, but in anyone's eyes realistically yes.

I've been trying for some time to level the playing field through our technology but its sloped in many different ways and isn't going to change overnight.

[Gorrex]

Why did this just happen at Dover and Harrington? Why didn't it happen at Delaware Park? I've never experienced it at Delaware Park, and I've bet on over 1,000 of their live races. Same regulator?

I think its the nature of the breed and how races are started (moving start, versus loading in gate/box), not the regulator. Its not just those two that it used to happen at, but harness in general.

I honestly haven't seen it in a long time (haven't been working at a track in a long time either..) but the scenario I described is the exact way it happened every single time I've ever seen it regardless of which track/tote/etc..

[biggestal99]

9/2 to 5/2 in last minute on the recent winner of the 5th. Happened a few times since they opened yesterday.

That’s a pretty nice sized wager in the last minute or so to drop the odds like that


wonder what he paid on Betfair?


Allan

[lamboguy]

wonder what he paid on Betfair?


Allanthese days you can bet on a race in progress as well on Betfair.

[AlsoEligible]

CHRB proposed a 5 second limit after post time for calculations and transmission but everyone balked at it as impossible. They SHOULD implement that and give an X year window to make it possible with milestones leading up to it. Each system connected should have to explain in detail any discrepancies causing them to miss the 5 second limit and have their wagers no-merged from the pools for that race.

For what it's worth, the CHRB did pass that 5 second limit in the September 2018 meeting, and then it went out for 45-day public comment. I haven't heard anything on it since then, but in reality a "45 day comment" period can extend to a few months by the time all the red tape is gone through. If that proposal is truly dead, it would be news to me.

So I'm still hopeful that it comes back around and gets implemented at some point this year. This is one arena where regulatory agencies are actually worth a damn, and can push the rest of the industry forward in ways that the TRPB, TRA, and other alphabet soup organizations never will.

[Gorrex]

Thanks for the correction.

Hopefully it goes through as it could go a long way to fixing a lot of issues.