Beyers at different tracks

[cj]

My latest project I'm trying to tackle is analyzing how horses perform Beyer wise from track to track and taking advantage of discrepancies. I've noticed Delaware shippers are usually poor bets when they move around the East Coast, and the Delaware numbers always seem at least 5 points higher than the horse earns elsewhere. In the past I've found NoCal turf racing and Keeneland routes to be similiarly too high. I'm talking at least two lengths on these three.

Haven't really noticed any tracks that seem too low on a regular basis, but I'm sure there must be a few.

Anyone done any studies like this?

[Buddha]

never done a study, but would be interested in seeing the results.

[andicap]

Suffolk numbers never add up when they ship to NYC.

For a while I kept records of horses shipping in --- specifically those that failed at 4-1 and under. (and suceeded as well.) I'll dig them up and see what patterns emerged.

Also wonder how much of it is pace-related. Horses shipping from Delawre to other places -- is the pace faster elsewhere thus affecting the final times? Not sure, just asking the question.

Agree that likliest answer is there are different qualty Beyers -- but doesnt' Dick Jerardi do Delaware -- he's pretty well respected.

[betchatoo]

Fairmont Park when they ship to Arlington and Hawthorne

[Valuist]

Aqueduct inner dirt numbers are completely worthless when those horses are running at different tracks. As for Delaware, I agree they seem too high. I haven't tracked it, but I've seen plenty of big fig Delaware shippers come to New York and get their lunch handed to them. One other track I'm suspicious of is Mountaineer. I haven't seen as many but I've suspected their numbers are too high.

I completely disagree on the Fairmount numbers. I find FP numbers artificially low when they ship to Chicago. Its a very deep track. One of my favorite bets is to take a sharp $3000 claimer from FP (their bottom) who comes north to Hawthorne for a $4000 claimer and gets dismissed because he/she's "Fairmount crap".

[cj]

Mountaineer and CharlesTown are certainly on my radar as I've noticed the numbers are a bit high as well there. I wonder how much of it has to do with the varying drug levels allowed in certain states. I don't know if its a factor, I guess I'd have to compile a list by state first to even consider it, and I'm not sure I want to do that.

I'd tend to disagree about the Inner Dirt numbers, I've not really had any problems with them. Gulfstream shippers do seem to be a little on the low side when they ship up north in the spring, especially the cheaper ones.

[sjk]

At the DRF Expo I got the impression that recalibrating Beyers from different circuits is something that is only done once in a great while and that it is a labor-intensive process for them.

That strikes me as a real weakness of their methodology.

I recalibrate all my numbers weekly (which is probably going overboard). I would have an opinion as to which tracks are high or low if I had Beyer numbers to look at but it is rare that I would ever see one.

[betchatoo]

Originally posted by Valuist


I completely disagree on the Fairmount numbers. I find FP numbers artificially low when they ship to Chicago. Its a very deep track. One of my favorite bets is to take a sharp $3000 claimer from FP (their bottom) who comes north to Hawthorne for a $4000 claimer and gets dismissed because he/she's "Fairmount crap".

My personal experience with Farmont has been just the opposite. The track where I find the #'s should be higher is Tampa. I've had great success using Tampa shippers at Calder and Arlington

[Valuist]

All I have w/me now is today's Belmont pps. And I can see several horses who's numbers are likely articially high over the inner dirt:

My Man George- ran a career top of 100 over the inner. Go to his races at other tracks and he's topped 88 once.

Orka- career top of 98 came over the inner

Classy ET's top Beyer showing is an 87, which was in the same race Orka ran his 98.

Classic Endeavor- in his L12 races, he topped 90 in 4 of 5 inner dirt races; away from the inner he topped 90 once in 7 runs.

Again, its only a one day sample but is pretty typical. I would not be surpised if the inner numbers were high by as many as 8 points.

[sjk]

Here is a list of average dirt SR for the past year (9/29/03-9/27/04) for race winners from 5 furlongs to 1 3/16 miles by track:

TRACK avg sr
ALB 59.76
AP 73.34
AQI 79.79
AQU 80.18
ARP 56.71
ASD 46.69
BEL 83.32
BEU 47.59
BM 72.21
BRD 42.87
CBY 56.73
CD 78.60
CLS 49.79
CNL 59.31
CRC 68.28
CT 62.45
DD 61.86
DEL 71.35
DMR 84.17
ELP 65.97
EMD 61.65
EVD 56.98
FE 53.53
FER 55.19
FG 72.94
FL 53.20
FMT 55.41
FNO 62.46
FON 53.60
FP 53.44
FPX 73.73
GG 73.46
GLD 52.97
GP 78.08
HAW 72.34
HOL 83.24
HOO 55.59
HPO 67.11
HST 64.31
IND 52.85
KEE 86.09
LAD 66.26
LNN 52.47
LRL 69.07
LS 66.44
MED 66.88
MNR 60.71
MTH 71.74
NP 56.54
OP 73.10
OTC 91.03
PEN 54.49
PHA 64.23
PIM 66.94
PLN 73.27
PM 51.10
PRM 61.71
RD 52.12
RET 62.11
RP 58.46
RUI 61.18
SA 84.08
SAC 65.40
SAR 85.92
SH 60.57
SOL 68.34
SR 70.66
SRP 62.01
STK 65.22
STP 56.62
SUF 61.95
SUN 67.04
TAM 62.36
TDN 52.84
TIM 60.91
TP 65.76
TUP 61.69
WDS 56.15
WO 67.51
YAV 56.75

If anyone has average for Beyer figures they can compare.

[Valuist]

Very interesting. Its a lot more accurate than that daily purse distribution index that the DRF puts out. I think 2YO races should be excluded; 2YOs tend to run pretty slow figures, compared to older horses. And figures earned at distances less than 6f and greater than 9f are questionable also.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Were the purses the same for BEL and BEU?
Considering BM includes a $10,000 claimer that broke the 6f dirt record with a 1:07.2 on an extremely fast (48.4 4f workout) track, those adjusting speed ratings may want to take into consideration pars, purse, pace, and precipitation.

[cj]

Originally posted by Valuist
All I have w/me now is today's Belmont pps. And I can see several horses who's numbers are likely articially high over the inner dirt:

My Man George- ran a career top of 100 over the inner. Go to his races at other tracks and he's topped 88 once.

Orka- career top of 98 came over the inner

Classy ET's top Beyer showing is an 87, which was in the same race Orka ran his 98.

Classic Endeavor- in his L12 races, he topped 90 in 4 of 5 inner dirt races; away from the inner he topped 90 once in 7 runs.

Again, its only a one day sample but is pretty typical. I would not be surpised if the inner numbers were high by as many as 8 points.

I probably don't notice as much because the racing is generally different anyway. Belmont is so different than any other track that I would expect big differences. Its tough to compare Saratoga to Aqueduct Inner Dirt as well. Its a bigger track, and the cheaper horses that run on the inner dirt don't get nearly as many oppurtunities to run at the Spa. They also don't run many 1 1/8 mile routes on the inner. Even Aqueduct main doesn't run shorter routes than 1 1/8 m, except the 1 turn miles that are a whole different ball game.

Also, many horses run hard the whole inner dirt meet, and are probably over the top later on. The competition is easier, the purses still very big, so that is the best time to run them hard.

Now, to your quoted horses:

My Man George ran two big numbers, a 100 on the inner, and a 95 at Belmont. The rest, including other inner dirt starts, are in the 80s and below. His 100 was a 9 length victory. Many horses earn career bests winning by so many lengths. I remember Quirin advocating reducing any big winners figure to two lengths above the second place finisher, and its a pretty decent guideline.

Orka had run 89 or higher 8 of 9 times, peaking with the 98 on the inner. Several races were 93 and 94, and 96s, earned at Mth and Delaware. He has tailed off considerably since that 98, and he has yet to have a break to allow some R + R.

Classy ET ran several higher races than 87, including a few at the Spa during the PA getaway of 2003. He was claimed out of his last inner start by low percentage connections, and has yet to run back to those numbers.

Classic E ran many, many races higher than his inner races in the summer, and has run better than his winter form winning at Belmont with a 96.

Its probably my intimate knowledge of the NYRA circuit that helps me decipher the PPs a little deeper. I've long loved the inner dirt meet, and really spend a lot of time on it. Looking at the lifetime PPs really helps to, as you can see what the horses did immediately before the inner dirt meet.

[Valuist]

The numbers I was quoting were out of todays pps. No lifetime past performances so if it was over 12 races old, I didn't have it. Also it is known as a "horse for course" track, which may contribute to some of these big numbers. The old Sportsman's was similar in that many horses ran lifetime tops there. I can't prove with numbers that the inner numbers are wrong, but I've seen too many suspicious ones over the years.

Getting back to your GP example, I have seen some of those horses struggle but I think its probably because of the severe climatic change.

[kenwoodallpromos]

If you are betting Bm, the track is fast and the rail is again even faster than the wider lanes. Early speed again. The wide variation in 4f workout times and charts are good hints.
It is possible it could remain that way all week.

[sjk]

kenwood,

I am aware that the condition book at Beu is quite different from the one at Bel as are all tracks in one degree or another.

The reason that I posted the list is that it was proposed that Beyer ratings are not directly comparable from track to track while I have confidence that my figures are since I recalculate weekly. If someone were in a position make a similar list using Beyer figures the comparison might be of interest (or not if you disbelieve my homemade figures).

[cj]

Originally posted by kenwoodallpromos
If you are betting Bm, the track is fast and the rail is again even faster than the wider lanes. Early speed again. The wide variation in 4f workout times and charts are good hints.
It is possible it could remain that way all week.

Thread killer!:( :( :( What does this have to do with the above thread?

[Tom]

Interesting idea. Problem, as with any type of variant, is the individual horse whoe is affected differently by differnet tracks. Whatever it was, Fourstar Dave came alive at the Spa every year. Other horses like certain courses and will muddy the waters of a conversion factor.
Still, if you can come up with a reasonable number better or worse from one track to another, it can only help your speed analysis.
With lifetime PPs available in Formulator, a lot of data is available to look at. I will take a look at this too, to see if I can add something to the cause. My idea is to see at what levels horses ship in and win or run close up (max 1 length?) an then see what their Beyers do.
This is similar to the track to track adjustments that we had to make for Total Pace Ratings back in the day. Lots of work, but sometimes worth it.

[RXB]

Like cj, I really look forward to the AQI meet. And like cj, I haven't found the Beyers to be particularly out of whack.

Because it is a winterized track, and the turns are tighter, and the weather can be cold, the inner meet is rather different. And therefore, some horses that reign over the inner track won't do as well at other courses during other times of the year.

Just because a horse can't repeat his highest inner track figures when racing at other meets, doesn't necessarily mean that the Beyers themselves are out of whack. The Beyers are intended to measure the horse's final-time performance on that particular day under those particular conditions. When the conditions change, the performance level might change with them.

I think the Fairgrounds Beyers are generally correct, but I also know that horses shipping north from New Orleans in the spring are frequently very tough critters and often outrun horses that have put up equal or superior numbers at other venues. This is not the fault of the figuremakers; it has to do with the better training conditions and the much kinder racing surface at FG.

[Valuist]

A friend of mine told me he doesn't believe numbers earned at Hoosier. Then it sank in. Hoosier, Cby, Mountaineer. In those cases, all are in states where bute is allowed. That would make sense since bute is a pain killer.