View Full Version : Who is shelling all of these 1-9 and 1-5 shots?
Sea Hero
03-20-2019, 02:29 PM
In the space of ten minutes on a slow day, I saw two horses go off at 1-9 odds and win. Luna Fortis (TAM R3) and Big Bad Zin (HOU R2). That's more 1-9 shots than I can remember in any month ten years ago. I would understand a champion in a low-level stakes or a returning strong horse in an allowance race written for it. But these races were both Maiden 25k claimers and one of the horses was 0 for 14.
According to my database, in 2018 217 entries closed at 1-9 (about a third of those at 1-20) and 1009 more entries at 1-5 (0.2 or 0.3 odds).
I know why the horses are getting shelled: big speed figure gaps to the next horse. What I don't know is who is doing it. Any thoughts?
ReplayRandall
03-20-2019, 02:36 PM
According to my database, in 2018 217 entries closed at 1-9 (about a third of those at 1-20) and 1009 more entries at 1-5 (0.2 or 0.3 odds).
What's the hit rate and ROI on these huge bet downs....If you don't mind.
Sea Hero
03-20-2019, 03:23 PM
What's the hit rate and ROI on these huge bet downs....If you don't mind.
Hit rate is okay, ROI isn't much better than the track takeout.
1-9 or 1-20 - 217 plays, 175 won (80.6%) ROI 0.87
1-5 or 3-10 - 1009 plays,, 678 won (67.2%) ROI 0.84
While I'm at it:
2-5 909 plays, 556 won (61.2%) ROI 0.85
3-5 3206 plays, 1624 won (50.7%) ROI 0.83
4-5 3977 plays, 1802 wins (45.3%) ROI 0.84
Each of those includes the odds just below it for tracks that pay to the nickel per dollar (such as Canada or NYRA). Example: the 2-5 shots include horses that paid $2.80 and $2.70. That's how the database sorts the tote odds, and I'd need to extract the prices manually to adjust them.
davew
03-20-2019, 03:38 PM
I suspect connections with the horse, maybe owners?
ReplayRandall
03-20-2019, 03:45 PM
Hit rate is okay, ROI isn't much better than the track takeout.
Thanks Sea Hero....It looks like the whales would need a YUGE rebate to beat the vig, even with filtering…..Maybe some do.
Sea Hero
03-20-2019, 04:14 PM
The stats for the 2-5 shots and higher are from the beginning of 2018 until the end of February this year or 14 months. Those for the 1-9 and 1-5 shots are for 2018 itself. I forgot to add the filter for the ones at higher odds. Also, I don't keep all tracks in the database: the bush and fairs tracks aren't in it.
Saratoga_Mike
03-20-2019, 04:14 PM
Thanks Sea Hero....It looks like the whales would need a YUGE rebate to beat the vig, even with filtering…..Maybe some do.
ROI may improve if you filter down to $2.20-min states (IA and WV), but ADWs don't like players that bet into a lot of negative pool situations, as the ADW is burdened with a portion of the minus pool shortfall, I believe. And I guess this thread is focused on win bets, not show, so may not apply.
dilanesp
03-20-2019, 05:01 PM
What's the ROI on playing them to show?
Nitro
03-21-2019, 05:33 PM
Thanks Sea Hero....It looks like the whales would need a YUGE rebate to beat the vig, even with filtering…..Maybe some do.
They would need a lot more than that!
The $$ pools are so shallow there that the so-called “Whales” would get beached in a heart-beat.
Race #3 TAMPA BAY DNS – 2/20
Total WPS Pool: $93,922 (Combined!)
Exacta Pool - $61,722
Trifecta Pool - $38,548
Superfecta Pool - $24,594
Race #2 SAM HOUSTON – 2/20
Total WPS Pool: $44,859 (Combined!)
Exacta Pool - $40,210
Trifecta Pool - $30,823
Superfecta Pool - $24,222
acorn54
03-22-2019, 10:14 PM
don't know much about it. but with the proliferation of an underground economy and drug money, wouldn't that horse betting markets be an ideal mechanism?
Thomas Roulston
03-23-2019, 11:02 AM
How can it be bridge-jumpers when they would be betting to show rather than to win?
I watched this race last weekend. He loaded at 1-5 and went to 1-9 when the gate opened. lol,
61K in the win pool. Maybe a late 10,000 would take him 1-5 to 1-9 in a jump?
This is my weed math.
Sea Hero
04-09-2019, 04:54 PM
What's the ROI on playing them to show?
Place and show ROI are a little better than win: 0.88 and 0.89 respectively.
Half Smoke
04-17-2019, 03:39 PM
How can it be bridge-jumpers when they would be betting to show rather than to win?
pretty sure most of the overseas rebate shops don't rebate place and show so that's probably why they are betting to win
I know betonline.ag doesn't rebate place and show
deelo
04-20-2019, 12:12 AM
Do syndicates even bother with 1-9's?
My first instinct was just some mad bomber throwin down stacks
jocko699
05-19-2019, 04:37 PM
1/9 first time 2-year old at SA in R3 right now for Luis Mendez. :puke::puke:
Dave Schwartz
06-21-2019, 01:31 PM
Just for the record, these bridgejumpers are not doing poorly this year.
This is across all races in 2019.
2019 Test.
201-PubChWIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV
<0.20 99 83 83.8 $1.80 4.62 1.14
<0.40 467 328 70.2 $1.76 4.21 1.11
above 108,109 14,153 13.1 $1.49 0.98 0.99
Total 108,675 14,564 13.4 $1.49 1.00 0.98
2019 Test.
201-PubChPLACE BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV
<0.20 96 89 92.7 $1.96 4.96 0.61
<0.40 461 402 87.2 $1.87 5.15 0.68
above 107,995 28,555 26.4 $1.51 1.98 1.00
Total 108,552 29,046 26.8 $1.51 2.00 1.95
2019 Test.
201-PubChSHOW BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV
<0.20 82 80 97.6 $2.06 4.46 0.38
<0.40 422 397 94.1 $1.98 5.09 0.46
above 106,388 41,969 39.4 $1.52 2.91 1.01
Total 106,892 42,446 39.7 $1.52 2.92 2.84
thespaah
07-19-2019, 07:02 PM
Do syndicates even bother with 1-9's?
My first instinct was just some mad bomber throwin down stacks
My guess is it is the syndicate money that turns 2/5 3/5 into 1/5 or even 1/9.
The two dollar bettor isn't touching those.
Smart low volume players go get a beer and watch. They don't bet these valueless events
BIG RED
04-04-2021, 11:15 AM
How about 1/9 morning line? That has to be rare.
(Gamine @Santa Anita today)
dilanesp
04-04-2021, 11:22 AM
How about 1/9 morning line? That has to be rare.
(Gamine @Santa Anita today)
One reason it is rare is that many ML makers will never set it that low even when it is obvious the horse will go off that low.
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