earnings line projection

[BIG HIT]

Hi guys has anyone read this article from the old randy giles web site by fredrick a fink.?Did anybody ever try it.For those that didn't the base's is you take the earnings line data to compute a horse avg earning's per start and multiply by 5.7 compare the result to today's purse.The price should fit the purse.He say's can show weather a horse is inproveing or declineing inform.He was a guest writer on the website.And said he was going to do a follow up to take in account for state bred's never did.Know somebody must have tried this.

[Rick]

BIG HIT,

Are you saying that if the figure is less than today's purse the horse would be improving in form? Or is he preferring the high earning horses. In my experience, the worst thing you can do to your ROI is to throw out low earnings horses that look good otherwise.

[Dave Schwartz]

Big Hit,

In our software, HSH, we have a factor called "Index." Index represents the Earnings Per Start (EPS) from the last year divided by the purse that goes to the winner today as a percentage.

Thus, if today's purse is $20,000 and the winner gets 60% or $12,000) and the horse's EPS=$6,000 the Index=50%.

EPS expressed this way is a good factor. In some races it can be very predictive.

But I asure you it is no magic bullet. It is simply not that good. And with older claiming horses it can be quite misleading as they can drop down the class ladder quicker than their EPS.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Rick]

Dave,

If you study horses that are best in speed AND best in earnings per start you'll win a little more than favorites and lose a lot more (like maybe 30%). On it's own it's an OK factor but when combined with other significant variables it can be devastatingly bad.

[GameTheory]

I guess the question is how does it do when EPS index is high but horse looks bad otherwise? Is it just a "side-effect" rather than a predictive factor itself?

[FortuneHunter]

Dave mentioned horses sliding quickly. On the other hand, for 3YO, I bet you find horses acending quickly as well. They both probably has the same stale effect.

[wes]

All

I have the article by Frederick A. Fink and also received his spreadsheet on pricing the horses. It is to try and get a true price on the horse by using his magic number. It works on some races and if you stick with what he is saying it will pick some races of the top three in the correct order.

He states that he has been able to predict the pace of a race based on the class disparities of the contestants. If you have a large disparity, forget running style, forget pace. The class horses runaway from the cheaper one right out of the gate or mow them down on the far turn. The contention will be the class horses at the quarter pole. The question then becomes, who breaks or gives in to allow one of the cheapies to get a money slot ., if any. How often does class disparity happen? Often!

You probably aren't aware of the degree of this disparity because
similar race type labels convey you have the same class horses competing.

I have an excell spreadsheet which I can email you in return for some feeback on the price tag concept. My email address is
faink@home.com. I'll rescind this offer if i'm swamped with spreadsheet request. You must have Microsoft's excel spreadsheet software to print the spreadsheet.


I have had his spreadsheet for a good while but it was in the past year that I got the information. The letter that I downloaded from randygiles.com web site was dated 6/20/01 and I emaild him and he did email me the spreadsheet back.

good luck at the races
wes

[Rick]

GT,

You're probably right. A horse with high EPS but other negative factors (such as a layoff) might be a good play. The best plays always seem to not have too many or too few good things going for them.

[ranchwest]

If a horse finishes consistently second in MC 10000 Fillies State Bred and then wins and moves to open AL 20000, she may have excellent EPS but not have a chance in the world of winning.

Years ago, I was watching EPS. My friends and I called the high EPS horses BMW's (big money winners). I found that the top 4 BMW's would win about 70% of races. Of course, that didn't factor in anything regarding field size.

[andicap]

Tried to email request but got sent back. Isn't @home.com extinct as an ISP????

[Dave Schwartz]

Ranchwest,

>>If a horse finishes consistently second in MC 10000 Fillies State Bred and then wins and moves to open AL 20000, she may have excellent EPS but not have a chance in the world of winning.<<

You are exactly right. Actually, I oversimplified our formula. What it REALLY does with horses that have not finished at least 2nd in a non-maiden event is double all of their maiden starts. This, effectively, cuts their EPS in half. Not perfect, but it helps.

Dave