Thoughts on Horse Racing

[Unicorn]

This is just a question to throw out and start a discussion about racing. Do you think racing as a whole is declining or gaining more handicappers? Whether it is the occasional player, newbies, experienced handicappers, or even professionals. I'm in my thirties now and most of the people i run into at my local tracks are usually retirees. This makes me think racing is a dying sport in some ways. Just interested to see people's thoughts on this subject.

[Unicorn]

In my opinion I don't see too many younger people 20's-30's going to the track much. I'm sure this varies on what time and what days you go though.

[thaskalos]

Who but the retirees can afford to attend the races during the early afternoon hours? If you could somehow observe the online players...then I think you would see that the horse-betting public is a little different in makeup than what the on-track experience reveals.

[Suff]

Do you think racing as a whole is declining or gaining more handicappers?

When you say handicapping, So that I know what you mean.

Are you asking:

Is there a process that can effectively arm new people with the ability to enjoy the sport through wagering? In a word NO. That's gone.

If you are asking:

Is there a process that can effectively arm people with the ability to enjoy the sport as a fan? ( tickets, meals, souvenirs etc.) In a word NO. That's also gone.

[Suff]

The reason I ask is , that what I do, maybe what you do to, is not handicapping. Handicapping was when racing secretaries wrote races that "handicapped" the likely favorites, most often with weight.

Now races are written to specific horses, or types of horses that happen to be on the grounds. The Handicap has been placed on the weaker horses.

That's why we end up with super trainers. 2 at every track making money and everybody else nothing.

If you are asking:

Is there a process that can effectively arm smart , curious and ambitious people with the ability to enjoy the sport through wagering? In a word YES.

I see some of that now when looking at a few of the NHC players backgrounds.

I hope it continues to grow. .

[acorn54]

all i can say is that i am excited and am fast and loose with large fields (9-horse fields or more) i began as a horseplayer because i could bet a little to win alot.
to put serious money on a four-legged animal to run around an oval, no thank you. that kind of money is reserved for dollar-cost averaging into my S&P 500 Index fund, and i hazard to say any rational person has the same viewpoint.

[thaskalos]

all i can say is that i am excited and am fast and loose with large fields (9-horse fields or more) i began as a horseplayer because i could bet a little to win alot.
to put serious money on a four-legged animal to run around an oval, no thank you. that kind of money is reserved for dollar-cost averaging into my S&P 500 Index fund, and i hazard to say any rational person has the same viewpoint.

I, personally, can only entrust my "serious money" to stable investments. And, what's more stable than something with four legs? :ThmbUp:

[acorn54]

I, personally, can only entrust my "serious money" to stable investments. And, what's more stable than something with four legs? :ThmbUp:

thaskalos your priceless, never change.:)

[Unicorn]

I think you guys kind of misinterpreted what I'm trying to say. By handicapper I mean just people that are interested in the sport. I was just taking a guess from what I observed at my home tracks in my state. It's probably not that way everywhere though. I'm pretty much an online player when it comes to wagering, so I kind of know what you mean by that. If I go to the track there is too many distractions and with the way I handicap now most of the time I use free information and don't even use a drf.

[biggestal99]

all i can say is that i am excited and am fast and loose with large fields (9-horse fields or more) i began as a horseplayer because i could bet a little to win alot.
to put serious money on a four-legged animal to run around an oval, no thank you. that kind of money is reserved for dollar-cost averaging into my S&P 500 Index fund, and i hazard to say any rational person has the same viewpoint.

I sometimes dollar cost average on the horse racing exchange. Does that count?

I also arb my positions sometimes on the exchange. My wife says you only made 5 bucks trading that position. Ah but that’s 5 more bucks in the exchange
Account. It’s all about the benjamins.

And I am a rational thinking human being.

Allan

[castaway01]

I think you guys kind of misinterpreted what I'm trying to say. By handicapper I mean just people that are interested in the sport. I was just taking a guess from what I observed at my home tracks in my state. It's probably not that way everywhere though. I'm pretty much an online player when it comes to wagering, so I kind of know what you mean by that. If I go to the track there is too many distractions and with the way I handicap now most of the time I use free information and don't even use a drf.

Considering that wagering in casinos has grown exponentially with the number of casinos, sports wagering is growing massively, lotteries took in $73 billion last year, and horse racing handle has gone from $15 billion to under $11 billion in recent years...no, young people are not flocking to horse racing. Neither are middle-aged people nor older people.

[FakeNameChanged]

This is just a question to throw out and start a discussion about racing. Do you think racing as a whole is declining or gaining more handicappers? Whether it is the occasional player, newbies, experienced handicappers, or even professionals. I'm in my thirties now and most of the people i run into at my local tracks are usually retirees. This makes me think racing is a dying sport in some ways. Just interested to see people's thoughts on this subject.

I'm kind of shocked you're asking this question.

[acorn54]

I sometimes dollar cost average on the horse racing exchange. Does that count?

I also arb my positions sometimes on the exchange. My wife says you only made 5 bucks trading that position. Ah but that’s 5 more bucks in the exchange
Account. It’s all about the benjamins.

And I am a rational thinking human being.

Allan

i salute you. most years i lose at the horses, that's okay, it's my thrill money i spend. maybe your investing acumen is better than mine, but i can't complain about the investing strategy i use. i dollar cost averaged into a S & P in my working years, and i dollar cost average taking my money out, in my retirement. i have gotten 10 fold what i put into the index fund, with no attention being paid to it. i can't say that about my horsebettting.

[Track Phantom]

All of the indicators say the interest in US horse racing is declining. There are a lot of reasons for it. Some of it is just a change in society, different interests, different options. Other is due to self-inflicted wounds.

What indicator could you point to that shows horse racing interest has increased? Betting? No, because A) the number has declined by nearly 26% from a peak in the early 2000's and B) the number has probably decreased a hell of a lot more if it weren't for computer batch betting.

How about the major decline in horse population?

How about media? In the 1960's, 1970's, horse racing results were on the front of the sports section with a recap of big races. Now you're lucky if newspapers even report static results on page 32. ESPN ranks sports on their website by popularity. The first link option is the NFL, then NBA, then MLB and so on. Horse racing finds itself behind College Softball and in the vicinity of Special Olympics. Let that sink in for a moment.

I do not think it is even debatable that horse racing interest has been in steep decline. I'm not sure if anything can be done about it and certainly not with the industry leadership in place now. I don't believe leadership has any interest or motivation, or even a forum, to make decisions for the betterment of the sport as a whole. All current decisions are about self-preservation. Allowing cheating trainers with large stables to consistently make a mockery of the results of races at major race tracks all because they help "fill" races is an awful ecosystem.

This might be a biased stance but it bothers me a great deal that no one in the industry has ever contacted me (or know I even exist) about improvement ideas despite the fact that I have followed the sport religiously for over 30 years. I've handicapped, watched, bet on, discussed and written about more horse racing than 99.9% of the public but I have no outlet to contribute to ideas that might invigorate the sport.

I do not think a rise in popularity can occur for horse racing until the game is blown up at the root level. Lack of a unifying body is insurmountable.

[ReplayRandall]

A few years ago, I started a thread "Time for Contraction".....It was a lively discussion:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=2206147#post2206147

[biggestal99]

i salute you. most years i lose at the horses, that's okay, it's my thrill money i spend. maybe your investing acumen is better than mine, but i can't complain about the investing strategy i use. i dollar cost averaged into a S & P in my working years, and i dollar cost average taking my money out, in my retirement. i have gotten 10 fold what i put into the index fund, with no attention being paid to it. i can't say that about my horsebettting.


I think the way you play the stock market is the way you should play horses.


How did you pick that particular fund?


how did you approach funding it?


That is a good beginning.



Allan

[classhandicapper]

I think people are losing interest in everything other than big events. The crowds and handle are still huge for the Derby, BC, Belmont and a handful of other major events, but only the hard core players care about day to day racing.

I think that's true of many other sports also.

Some people just love a certain sport and follow it closely all the time, but there are so many entertainment options people gravitate to the playoffs, finals, main event etc... and less towards the day to day action.

[Dave Schwartz]

I think you guys kind of misinterpreted what I'm trying to say. By handicapper I mean just people that are interested in the sport. I was just taking a guess from what I observed at my home tracks in my state. It's probably not that way everywhere though. I'm pretty much an online player when it comes to wagering, so I kind of know what you mean by that. If I go to the track there is too many distractions and with the way I handicap now most of the time I use free information and don't even use a drf.

We are almost all on online players now.

I just came back from a week in SoCal. Really wanted to get out to the track. Even stayed in Pasadena so we'd be close. But between bad weather, all the added costs, and the fact that it just isn't a very good deal, I decided to go to the zoo instead.

But the big problem is (as someone else mentioned) the lack of young players.

[dilanesp]

In my opinion I don't see too many younger people 20's-30's going to the track much. I'm sure this varies on what time and what days you go though.

They go to Del Mar.

[dilanesp]

We are almost all on online players now.

I just came back from a week in SoCal. Really wanted to get out to the track. Even stayed in Pasadena so we'd be close. But between bad weather, all the added costs, and the fact that it just isn't a very good deal, I decided to go to the zoo instead.

But the big problem is (as someone else mentioned) the lack of young players.

You would have enjoyed this week even more.

[Dave Schwartz]

You would have enjoyed this week even more.

I don't understand.

[dilanesp]

I don't understand.

No t-bred racong at all this week in So Csl.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Racing will continue to decline, as the economy declines, since it's an entertainment business. There are many other factors in play, but the trend is clear - the masses just don't have the disposable funds for expensive hobbies in the same quantities as in the past, and it affects many other forms of entertainment - NASCAR, NFL, NBA, eating out, new cars, pricey cell phones, pricey TV packages (cord cutters, anyone?). With just the cost of staying alive and employed or on government handouts getting more difficult each day for many in the middle and lower classes, the squeeze is on.

This forum represents an older and wealthier demographic that's, to be blunt, dying off, and I think many here are sheltered (for the moment) from how bad things really are out there. The younger generations behind those of us who are boomers are saddled with college loan debt, declining wages, and with entire career fields that are disappearing. Their opportunities are limited. With the rise in socialism and growth in government and more and more of the masses wanting handouts, I don't see racing getting any tax breaks to lower handle and help grow the game. It will be labeled as an "evil boomer hobby", and the younger folks will avoid it.

Racing will survive in some form though. If I had to guess, I'd say 20-30 years from now, horse racing will be in two venues - a very small circuit for the wealthy owners, who will race their limited stock for very short meets at Sar, CD, Kee, Bel, GP and maybe Del Mar. The races will have small fields, decent purses, and will be unaffordable for most. It will be the sport of kings, in a sense. The other form will be at the other end of the economic scale, with cheap local horses competing for very small purses at county fairs, or blocked off back roads again in Louisiana. Even then, it will only be the relatively affluent who will be able to own the horses, as the rest of us will be scrambling for a slice of moldy bread and a cup of cold gruel....

That's my two cents.

[castaway01]

Racing will continue to decline, as the economy declines, since it's an entertainment business. There are many other factors in play, but the trend is clear - the masses just don't have the disposable funds for expensive hobbies in the same quantities as in the past, and it affects many other forms of entertainment - NASCAR, NFL, NBA, eating out, new cars, pricey cell phones, pricey TV packages (cord cutters, anyone?). With just the cost of staying alive and employed or on government handouts getting more difficult each day for many in the middle and lower classes, the squeeze is on.

This forum represents an older and wealthier demographic that's, to be blunt, dying off, and I think many here are sheltered (for the moment) from how bad things really are out there. The younger generations behind those of us who are boomers are saddled with college loan debt, declining wages, and with entire career fields that are disappearing. Their opportunities are limited. With the rise in socialism and growth in government and more and more of the masses wanting handouts, I don't see racing getting any tax breaks to lower handle and help grow the game. It will be labeled as an "evil boomer hobby", and the younger folks will avoid it.

Racing will survive in some form though. If I had to guess, I'd say 20-30 years from now, horse racing will be in two venues - a very small circuit for the wealthy owners, who will race their limited stock for very short meets at Sar, CD, Kee, Bel, GP and maybe Del Mar. The races will have small fields, decent purses, and will be unaffordable for most. It will be the sport of kings, in a sense. The other form will be at the other end of the economic scale, with cheap local horses competing for very small purses at county fairs, or blocked off back roads again in Louisiana. Even then, it will only be the relatively affluent who will be able to own the horses, as the rest of us will be scrambling for a slice of moldy bread and a cup of cold gruel....

That's my two cents.

I don't have the ability to really break down this post without getting into politics, but GAMBLING overall is growing massively, so your "everyone is too broke to gamble" idea is obviously wrong and directly the opposite of reality.

People love to gamble, they just don't want to wager on horse racing because there are a lot of better options.

[sour grapes]

Racing will continue to decline, as the economy declines, since it's an entertainment business. There are many other factors in play, but the trend is clear - the masses just don't have the disposable funds for expensive hobbies in the same quantities as in the past, and it affects many other forms of entertainment - NASCAR, NFL, NBA, eating out, new cars, pricey cell phones, pricey TV packages (cord cutters, anyone?). With just the cost of staying alive and employed or on government handouts getting more difficult each day for many in the middle and lower classes, the squeeze is on.

This forum represents an older and wealthier demographic that's, to be blunt, dying off, and I think many here are sheltered (for the moment) from how bad things really are out there. The younger generations behind those of us who are boomers are saddled with college loan debt, declining wages, and with entire career fields that are disappearing. Their opportunities are limited. With the rise in socialism and growth in government and more and more of the masses wanting handouts, I don't see racing getting any tax breaks to lower handle and help grow the game. It will be labeled as an "evil boomer hobby", and the younger folks will avoid it.

Racing will survive in some form though. If I had to guess, I'd say 20-30 years from now, horse racing will be in two venues - a very small circuit for the wealthy owners, who will race their limited stock for very short meets at Sar, CD, Kee, Bel, GP and maybe Del Mar. The races will have small fields, decent purses, and will be unaffordable for most. It will be the sport of kings, in a sense. The other form will be at the other end of the economic scale, with cheap local horses competing for very small purses at county fairs, or blocked off back roads again in Louisiana. Even then, it will only be the relatively affluent who will be able to own the horses, as the rest of us will be scrambling for a slice of moldy bread and a cup of cold gruel....

That's my two cents.
why all the doom and gloom,the economy is fine,its just that racing has not changed with the times that contributes to its decline.People will gamble,maybe not racing since to learn how to play is too costly to get started with the learning curve along with the high expense to attend at the track.

[airford1]

Horse racing in California? Put a Fork in it, it's done.

[thaskalos]

In what other legal gambling game can the bettor participate without ever leaving the comfort of his own home? Do we realize what sort of an advantage this is that horseracing has been allowed to monopolize? You fire up your computer, and the entire horseracing word is opened up to you...with free past performances just a mouse-click away. Can we compare this to the bygone era of 30 years ago, when the horseplayers were forced to drive to faraway locales in order to bet on a handful of races a day? And that was when the game THRIVED...while the game today is counting on political subsidizing maneuvers in order to survive? How does any of this make any sense?

People love to gamble, and they always will. But this love that the public has for gambling is too obvious, and does not allow for any gambling monopolies to exist for any length of time. Due to the insatiable appetite that our politicians have for money, different forms of legalized gambling get introduced to the betting public...and then the good old "survival-of-the-fittest" routine sorts things out from there. If you give the customer what he wants, then you survive, and might even prosper. But if you alienate him...then you will suffer.

Horseracing struggles today because it can't compete with the other much-more inconvenient forms of gambling that are available today. Today's gambler needn't be "introduced" to this game, as the horseracing industry thinks; the gambler today is already well introduced to this game...and he shuns it bacause he considers it to be a bad gamble. It has nothing to do with the "economy", or the supposed "complexity" of this game when compared to other forms of legalized gambling. In business, it's all very simple: offer a dubious product at an excessively high price...and you are doomed to failure. And in gambling, the lesson is even simpler: "People won't gamble with you if you have a shady reputation".

If the politicians didn't intervene and handed casino licenses to the racetrack operators, then our game would already be dead. Think about that. And the coroner would have identified the cause of death for what it really was. A SUICIDE.

[AlsoEligible]

What indicator could you point to that shows horse racing interest has increased? Betting? No, because A) the number has declined by nearly 26% from a peak in the early 2000's and B) the number has probably decreased a hell of a lot more if it weren't for computer batch betting.

Absolutely. Looking at year by year numbers from the Jockey Club (http://www.jockeyclub.com/default.asp?section=FB&area=8):

2004 - 15.1 bn
2005 - 14.5 bn
2006 - 14.7 bn
2007 - 14.7 bn
2008 - 13.6 bn
2009 - 12.3 bn
2010 - 11.4 bn
2011 - 10.7 bn
2012 - 10.8 bn
2013 - 10.8 bn
2014 - 10.5 bn
2015 - 10.6 bn
2016 - 10.6 bn
2017 - 10.9 bn
2018 - 11.2 bn

So steady decline from 2004 through 2011, and then staying pretty steady since then. That 2011-2012 timeframe is also when whale betting really picked up, and has certainly propped up those numbers.

Hard to get an accurate number on how much handle whales are putting in (they use so many different outlets, offshore accounts, what qualifies as a "whale" anyway, etc). But from my own experience I know it's at least 2 bn a year, and probably closer to 3.

So, remove 3bn from any of those recent figures, and you find that normal betting is down nearly 50% from 2004. The industry can pretend to ignore this and point at small increases over the last couple years...but under the surface, there's trouble brewing.

Even more concerning, these whales are close to a point of diminishing returns themselves. As more "dumb" money leaves the pools (either being chased away for various reasons, or voluntarily leaving for something more appealing like sports betting), you get to a point where the whales are cannibalizing each other. At that point they'll pack up shop and move to wherever the public goes. Then we'll see the bottom completely fall out of US racing, and everyone will pretend that they never saw it coming.

[Robert Fischer]

Don't know if the following landmark events had anything to do with (feel free to add your own)




2004 - 15.1 bn (POKER BOOM)
2005 - 14.5 bn (POKER BOOM)
2006 - 14.7 bn (POKER BOOM)(BARBARO)
2007 - 14.7 bn
2008 - 13.6 bn (BC SYNTH) (RECESSION)
2009 - 12.3 bn (BC SYNTH) (RECESSION)
2010 - 11.4 bn (CASINO PROLIFERATION?)(MEGA MILLIONS PROLIFERATION)
2011 - 10.7 bn " "
2012 - 10.8 bn" "
2013 - 10.8 bn" "
2014 - 10.5 bn" "
2015 - 10.6 bn " "
2016 - 10.6 bn " "
2017 - 10.9 bn " "
2018 - 11.2 bn " " (JUSTIFY TRIPLE CROWN)(CRAPPY LATE-SEASON WEATHER)
2019 - ??.? bn " " (IMPROVED TAX LAWS) (SANTA ANITA BREAKDOWNS)

[trifecta]

I've played the horses for 35 years - Southern California, mainly. Sat in the grandstands and on the benches at Santa Anita and Hollywood Park when the crowds were overflowing. Moved to Tahoe and played at Caesars and Harveys race and sports books, and had to get the sportsbook supervisors to put a reserved seat at one of the tables to guarantee a spot for race day weekends.

Stayed up for hours with my Tomlinson figures and Helm ratings, as well as a marked-up Daily Racing form. I loved it!

Then the following happened:

--5, 6 and 7 horse fields, with scratches on top of that.
--Jorge Navarro and his open disdain for fair play and laughing at the realization that he stiffed his "bookie" with "the juice".
--Horses at Gulfstream Park not getting to the gate until 6 or 7 minutes after "zero minutes to post".
--Tampa and Santa Anita following GP's lead with their own delays.
--Odds changing in deep stretch.
--Herding where jockeys aren't held accountable
--the jockey in Louisiana (Smith?) who claimed light-headedness and got away with it when he clearly threw the race.

And this doesn't even include the breakdowns at SA (drug induced?)

Thank God for Oaklawn Park...and, to a lesser degree, Woodbine.

[sharkie187]

I have noticed that the sport has been declining for a few years now. When I returned from overseas and went to SA on a brght sunny Saturday, I saw the grandstands 1/4 filled what it use to be in the late 80s and early 90s.

From a betting standpoint...Here’s what I saw in the UK that made horse/dog racing popular.

-The betting focus is only win bets on a single race or parlays.
America has way too many wagering options: exacta, quinella, tri, super, high 5, double, pick3-6, roulette...some of these all on one race! The UK does offer exactas/tri or the bookies version “forecast/tricast” but thats not the main focus. Its simply win bets. And you either place your bet through the tote (same as the US) or take the bookie’s fixed odds which can be HIGHER than the tote.

-No limit on wagering.
Here’s where its vastly different. In the US, some states offer a minimum $1 WPS bet but the majority is $2. The UK tote is the same with a minimum £1 Win or Place bet. But the bookies...do not have a MINIMUM limit! Now, supposedly the rule is 50p as the minimum, but I’ve been to a few betting shops where guys were playing 10p, 15p, 25p win bets! And the public knows this and take full advantage of it! Can you imagine a fan going to a casino in Las Vegas trying to bet 50 cents to win on a horse at Gulfstream? They’d be laugh out of the casino.

-Paying out to more than 1st/2nd/3rd
For big races and big meets, there are advertisements everywhere on which bookie to go to to bet the big race! They got full page ads on newspapers, tv commericals, or web ads of the bookie’s name, name/time
Of the race, and entries and their odds. Then you see the subnote... each way (win or place)paying out to 5,6,or 7 places! Of course this big race has a minimum of 20 entries usually (Grand National, Queen’s Plate, Gold Cup, etc) but still to pay out to the 7th place finisher!!! If that doesn’t bring in crowds, I dont know what does...and its still 20p (or whatever).

-What do you want to bet on?
UK bookies usually take whatever bet the patrons give them. I can’t tell you how many times I made a parlay bet using different tracks at once! And you can cross sport the parlay too! I remember parlaying a horse at Newcastle with Manchester United beating Sunderland at 50p! The UK bookies have figured out to let the fans bet how they want to bet at whatever price.
Here in the US, the guys running the show tell us what we CAN bet on and there’s no crossing sports betting. Actually, until last year, I didn’t see parlays offered at the track anymore!

[chadk66]

Since I quit training in 1991 horse racing has declined considerably. And I think it has a ways to go yet before bottoming out. I think you'll see some more tracks close down.

[FakeNameChanged]

We are almost all on online players now.

I just came back from a week in SoCal. Really wanted to get out to the track. Even stayed in Pasadena so we'd be close. But between bad weather, all the added costs, and the fact that it just isn't a very good deal, I decided to go to the zoo instead.

But the big problem is (as someone else mentioned) the lack of young players.

Dave, now be honest, you were betting with someone on which monkey would scratch his ass first on monkey island. Horse players are versatile.

[JerryBoyle]

Is Hong Kong still doing well? Might give some indication as to whether it's a problem with the appeal of horse racing, or the structure/appeal/whatever of horse racing in the US.

[coachv30]

I've found out over the past few years that it is possible to turn some people onto playing the horses. However, these individuals need to be recreational gamblers to begin with. I've turned a total of 4 friends / work colleagues into horse players in the last four years. They were all originally sports bettors.

How did I do it?

1) By sending them snapshots of winning ADW tickets that showed how I was able to turn $20 into $300+ in less than 2 minutes time.

2) By razzing them when they brag about the 3 game parlay that they hit the night before where they have to put up $100 to get back $175.

They don't have to be a fan of the game to be a fan of the wager.

Over time, they started becoming fans of the process. They would ask me questions about PP's and what does this and that mean....

Three of the four still bet sports as well and one has converted to solely horse racing and has become pretty damn good.

I realize that this says nothing about the overall state of the game, but if you're a gambler by heart, it's possible to develop the interest. Besides, as many have said before on here, the more you know about the game itself the worse off you are.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

They go to Del Mar.

Tons of twenty and thirty somethings at Saratoga. I love watching them at the betting machines trying to figure out how to bet.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

People will bet if they think they can win. If they can't win they won't bet

The problem with running a rebated tote is that it makes it relatively easy for the entrenched big syndicates to win but conversely makes it almost mission impossible for anyone else to win. So you struggle to keep any rookie players in the game for long as they get hammered and leave

The Australian wagering figures for tote vs fixed odds the last few years are as follows

TAB TOTE 2010/11 $8.9 billion
TAB TOTE 2017/18 $5.5 billion

That is a drop of almost -40% in 8 seasons of racing for tote betting

TOTAL WAGERING 2010/11 $14.4 billion
TOTAL WAGERING 2017/18 $19.5 billion

But while tote wagering is way down total wagering is up about 35% in the same 8 seasons

TOTAL WAGERING-TAB TOTE 2010/11 $5.5 billion
TOTAL WAGERING-TAB TOTE 2017/18 $14 billion

So there has been huge growth in betting on horses in Australia that is not on the tote. Most of this will be fixed odds betting although some of it will be derivative tote bets (ie bookies pay odds based on the tote price)

Bottom line is fixed odds betting has grown strongly in Australia over the last 8 seasons while tote betting is dying

The people who run racing prefer tote betting to fixed odds as it gives a higher percentage return to racing than fixed odds (ie higher takeout). But clearly if you give players the choice they much prefer fixed odds to tote betting. The UK experience is the same

Fixed odds betting does increase integrity problems and you have the problem these days of bookies not wanting to bet winning players. But at least it gives non syndicate players a chance to win something. Rebated totes just allow big syndicates to clean up while everyone else loses

[Track Phantom]

I honestly can't think of a thing that horse racing has done in recent years solely for the benefit of the horse player. They may have done things that are coincidentally beneficial to the player.

Here is the problem with the current wagering system: the track experiences none of the risks associated with participants taking an edge. If trainers or riders compete in an unethical way, if betting from computer wagering is too sharp, late or just entering the pools in an unfair way, the track gets their cut. I've said it many times and I very much believe it...racing would be 1000% more fair if tracks "booked" bets.

Tracks would immediately eliminate high percentage trainers the same way casinos walk players to the door that win too much. Stabling horses at a track would be by invitation and Navarro and the ilk would be out of business.

Betting would be cut off at 3 minutes to post with detailed audits on every bet to ensure it came in fairly.

Trainer and riders would suffer significant suspensions if behavior was even "likely" nefarious.

The tracks would create an environment that was much more highly policed, or, they would have long ago shuttered. What they wouldn't do is allow the product to be so obviously corrupt because they would be footing the bill. It is sad they aren't as consciousness while the players foot the bill.

[linrom1]

The biggest issue with racing for me is lack of quality. Racing is so boring that I can't even sit thru whole daily race card. It's not even a sport, its an exercise in milking pools especially at Stronach venues.

Why would a venue card 14 mediocre races otherwise? And why should fans care about jockey/trainer races?

The other issue for me is actually the very reason why people are interested in racing: handicapping. It has been an intellectual exercise for many, but, its becoming almost totally meaningless. Unless one is racing insider, how does one handicap multitude of layoff horses that now regularly appear in almost all important stake races? There are horses that make their appearance in Grades stake races after being laid off for more than a year? Its a total crapshoot as they can't be properly evaluated without insider knowledge.

[coachv30]

The biggest issue with racing for me is lack of quality. Racing is so boring that I can't even sit thru whole daily race card. It's not even a sport, its an exercise in milking pools especially at Stronach venues.

Why would a venue card 14 mediocre races otherwise? And why should fans care about jockey/trainer races?

The other issue for me is actually the very reason why people are interested in racing: handicapping. It has been an intellectual exercise for many, but, its becoming almost totally meaningless. Unless one is racing insider, how does one handicap multitude of layoff horses that now regularly appear in almost all important stake races? There are horses that make their appearance in Grades stake races after being laid off for more than a year? Its a total crapshoot as they can't be properly evaluated without insider knowledge.

I live 10 minutes from PARX. On normal days (including weekends), you have your pick of seating whether we're talking grandstands, bar/restaurant or outside. On the big days such as PA derby days, you can't move up there. I don't think the reason is because they are running two big races later in the day. Instead, it's due to the festivities that are going on all day such as local bands, kiddy rides, face painting, etc... These things are bringing families out. If this were to be an every weekend thing, you may see more families attending.

Sure....the racing becomes a secondary to most who are there but you will still get your inquisitive bettors who normally would not have been in attendance.

[biggestal99]

I have noticed that the sport has been declining for a few years now. When I returned from overseas and went to SA on a brght sunny Saturday, I saw the grandstands 1/4 filled what it use to be in the late 80s and early 90s.

From a betting standpoint...Here’s what I saw in the UK that made horse/dog racing popular.

-The betting focus is only win bets on a single race or parlays.
America has way too many wagering options: exacta, quinella, tri, super, high 5, double, pick3-6, roulette...some of these all on one race! The UK does offer exactas/tri or the bookies version “forecast/tricast” but thats not the main focus. Its simply win bets. And you either place your bet through the tote (same as the US) or take the bookie’s fixed odds which can be HIGHER than the tote.

-No limit on wagering.
Here’s where its vastly different. In the US, some states offer a minimum $1 WPS bet but the majority is $2. The UK tote is the same with a minimum £1 Win or Place bet. But the bookies...do not have a MINIMUM limit! Now, supposedly the rule is 50p as the minimum, but I’ve been to a few betting shops where guys were playing 10p, 15p, 25p win bets! And the public knows this and take full advantage of it! Can you imagine a fan going to a casino in Las Vegas trying to bet 50 cents to win on a horse at Gulfstream? They’d be laugh out of the casino.

-Paying out to more than 1st/2nd/3rd
For big races and big meets, there are advertisements everywhere on which bookie to go to to bet the big race! They got full page ads on newspapers, tv commericals, or web ads of the bookie’s name, name/time
Of the race, and entries and their odds. Then you see the subnote... each way (win or place)paying out to 5,6,or 7 places! Of course this big race has a minimum of 20 entries usually (Grand National, Queen’s Plate, Gold Cup, etc) but still to pay out to the 7th place finisher!!! If that doesn’t bring in crowds, I dont know what does...and its still 20p (or whatever).

-What do you want to bet on?
UK bookies usually take whatever bet the patrons give them. I can’t tell you how many times I made a parlay bet using different tracks at once! And you can cross sport the parlay too! I remember parlaying a horse at Newcastle with Manchester United beating Sunderland at 50p! The UK bookies have figured out to let the fans bet how they want to bet at whatever price.
Here in the US, the guys running the show tell us what we CAN bet on and there’s no crossing sports betting. Actually, until last year, I didn’t see parlays offered at the track anymore!

I will Add the betting exchange to your list.

It’s another option for win betting at fixed odds.

When you see 1,000,000 usd or more matched bets on almost every race in the uk.

It’s obviously popular.

Allan

[Nitro]

Is Hong Kong still doing well? Might give some indication as to whether it's a problem with the appeal of horse racing, or the structure/appeal/whatever of horse racing in the US.

This topic has been raised quite a few times here on PA. You might want to take a look at the following thread:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=139653&highlight=Hong+Kong+Racing

[AskinHaskin]

Is there a process that can effectively arm new people with the ability to enjoy the sport through wagering? In a word NO. That's gone.




The above is simply incorrect.

And it is merely the short-sighted factions of track management teams who routinely pave the path for the tiny sliver of so-called professional players in their wagering audiences, at the expense of the sport, its future, and all other players, who are effectively withholding that opportunity from the crowd as a whole.


Recently the bone-headed, wrong thinking prevalent on this website and around racing as a whole has finally shone a light on the difference between the misguided perception that newcomers are playing the same 16-20% "random-loss" game that most handicappers approach... and the reality that has the newcomers facing a far steeper challenge/house-cut.


Ergo, the first and most important step is to do something immediate to assist newcomers in their (otherwise impossible) quest to become competitive before their money and interest runs out. This is far more important than solving drugs in racing, (other) cheating in racing, or even animal safety.

It isn't the relative safety of ping-pong balls which routinely sends newcomers to the track's exits in search of an easier quest.

Tracks have known for decades the same opportunities to upgrade their fan presentation like never before, to include immediate assistance for newcomers and the steadily-inept, and they have done collectively nothing to this day. Usually because some high-roller who was a regular customer at their track before any of them began a career there convinced them that he, and not the big picture should be their priority.

Racing continues to languish with the same tired priorities at the direct expense of the society all around it.

It would be so simple to actively do something for everybody in the racing audience instead of habitually supporting the one percent to the general dismay of all others.

[linrom1]

The above is simply incorrect.

And it is merely the short-sighted factions of track management teams who routinely pave the path for the tiny sliver of so-called professional players in their wagering audiences, at the expense of the sport, its future, and all other players, who are effectively withholding that opportunity from the crowd as a whole.


Recently the bone-headed, wrong thinking prevalent on this website and around racing as a whole has finally shone a light on the difference between the misguided perception that newcomers are playing the same 16-20% "random-loss" game that most handicappers approach... and the reality that has the newcomers facing a far steeper challenge/house-cut.


Ergo, the first and most important step is to do something immediate to assist newcomers in their (otherwise impossible) quest to become competitive before their money and interest runs out. This is far more important than solving drugs in racing, (other) cheating in racing, or even animal safety.

It isn't the relative safety of ping-pong balls which routinely sends newcomers to the track's exits in search of an easier quest.

Tracks have known for decades the same opportunities to upgrade their fan presentation like never before, to include immediate assistance for newcomers and the steadily-inept, and they have done collectively nothing to this day. Usually because some high-roller who was a regular customer at their track before any of them began a career there convinced them that he, and not the big picture should be their priority.

Racing continues to languish with the same tired priorities at the direct expense of the society all around it.

It would be so simple to actively do something for everybody in the racing audience instead of habitually supporting the one percent to the general dismay of all others.

STRONACH

[Parkview_Pirate]

I don't have the ability to really break down this post without getting into politics, but GAMBLING overall is growing massively, so your "everyone is too broke to gamble" idea is obviously wrong and directly the opposite of reality.

People love to gamble, they just don't want to wager on horse racing because there are a lot of better options.

Gambling may be growing, in some areas, but I think it's peaking. It wasn't that long ago you had to travel to Vegas or Atlantic City for something other than the lottery or racing. Now there's a riverboat, Indian Casino or video poker lounge within a half hour of many of us.

But the point I'm trying to make is that horse racing doesn't exist in a vacuum, and the overall trend is clear - as the wealthier, older generations die off that had pensions and disposable income, the younger generations won't be able to replace the handle.

[Parkview_Pirate]

why all the doom and gloom,the economy is fine,its just that racing has not changed with the times that contributes to its decline.People will gamble,maybe not racing since to learn how to play is too costly to get started with the learning curve along with the high expense to attend at the track.

Surprised my outlook doesn't resonate with a poster named "sour grapes".:confused:

[Half Smoke]

technology saved racing

simulcast and computer wagering

7.5 billion people in the world

probably 2 billion have enough resources to make a bet

a few million consider betting on horses

racing is not in danger of disappearing

gross volume might decline or advance depending on management initiatives

racetrack Managers are not the sharpest knives in the drawer

probably will decline some

[HalvOnHorseracing]

This is just a question to throw out and start a discussion about racing. Do you think racing as a whole is declining or gaining more handicappers? Whether it is the occasional player, newbies, experienced handicappers, or even professionals. I'm in my thirties now and most of the people i run into at my local tracks are usually retirees. This makes me think racing is a dying sport in some ways. Just interested to see people's thoughts on this subject.

You think people are old at the track, go to the Symphony sometime.

[bob60566]

Casino and technology has saved the day for horse racing without a doubt.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

A few years ago, I started a thread "Time for Contraction".....It was a lively discussion:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=2206147#post2206147

I know no one wants to believe it, but if the smaller tracks disappeared it would make absolutely no difference. The horses at places like Arapahoe Park simply cannot compete at Santa Anita or Saratoga or a bunch of other tracks. You accomplish nothing by closing these tracks unless you believe the total handle of $50K per weekend race day will make a difference at wherever they choose to bet it. The handle on one race at SA exceeds the daily handle at some of these small parks.*

It's not that I would be happy if a bunch of tracks close, but I'll say what I've always said. Medium size tracks closing would make a far bigger impact because they have horses that can compete at the "A" level tracks. However, even the small tracks create jobs and add horses (because of the attraction of state-bred races).

I've thought 20-22 tracks distributed across the time zones so you had racing every day from about noon to 11:00 pm would be a good set up. You don't have to agree--just a few thoughts.


*In Colorado there is actually a law that requires 39 racing days per year in order to allow betting at other tracks. I just used the track to make a point.

[airford1]

technology saved racing

simulcast and computer wagering

7.5 billion people in the world

probably 2 billion have enough resources to make a bet

a few million consider betting on horses

racing is not in danger of disappearing

gross volume might decline or advance depending on management initiatives

racetrack Managers are not the sharpest knives in the drawer

probably will decline some

I think that some technology has hurt racing. The fact that you have the projected pace and winners printed has killed the pay outs across the board. The casual player doesn't have to put in the work to be on a almost even par with the studied player, thus lower pay out.

[AskinHaskin]

The casual player doesn't have to put in the work to be on a almost even par with the studied player


LOL - nothing could be more upside down and wrong.


The studied player walks into the track to play a game where the handle can be anticipated to exact a 16-20% toll on each of his wagers.


The casual player presently walks into the track to play the same game while facing an equation that exacts a 30% toll on his wagers (much like the idiot score on a true/false test).

(*** see another thread at this website where said studied players are finally awakened to the reality of that -30-ish percent norms are most typical for the new and casual players).


Racing could easily begin to repair itself by striving to make your misguided prophecy a reality, but track management has been so narrow-minded for so long that they just keep doing what they've done wrong for decades while failing miserably at utilizing and optimizing their edge over other games of chance.

Casino games and the state lottery don't have the same flaw which has been known to racing all along. The "studied player" and the "casual player" each play the same game with the same equations in those scenarios, and as such those games have far more vast followings.

The guy at the gas station knows that he has exactly the same odds as you do when he steps up to purchase his Powerball ticket, and he keeps playing. The casual player at the track doesn't take long to figure out that he's at a massive disadvantage upon arrival, and he typically never returns.

Racing continues to do zero for that casual player and the results are crowds with fewer and fewer casual players every week.

It's a simple equation and a simple solution, but nobody cares...

[Jeff P]

Agree with (roughly) everything you just posted.

Care to post your simple solution?


-jp

.

[AndyC]

LOL - nothing could be more upside down and wrong.


The studied player walks into the track to play a game where the handle can be anticipated to exact a 16-20% toll on each of his wagers.


The casual player presently walks into the track to play the same game while facing an equation that exacts a 30% toll on his wagers (much like the idiot score on a true/false test).

(*** see another thread at this website where said studied players are finally awakened to the reality of that -30-ish percent norms are most typical for the new and casual players).


Racing could easily begin to repair itself by striving to make your misguided prophecy a reality, but track management has been so narrow-minded for so long that they just keep doing what they've done wrong for decades while failing miserably at utilizing and optimizing their edge over other games of chance.

Casino games and the state lottery don't have the same flaw which has been known to racing all along. The "studied player" and the "casual player" each play the same game with the same equations in those scenarios, and as such those games have far more vast followings.

The guy at the gas station knows that he has exactly the same odds as you do when he steps up to purchase his Powerball ticket, and he keeps playing. The casual player at the track doesn't take long to figure out that he's at a massive disadvantage upon arrival, and he typically never returns.

Racing continues to do zero for that casual player and the results are crowds with fewer and fewer casual players every week.

It's a simple equation and a simple solution, but nobody cares...

I don't think a casual player realizes anything regarding the disadvantage he/she faces. What they do realize is that losing money at the track isn't nearly as fun as losing money at a casino or betting their favorite sports teams.

[thaskalos]

I don't think a casual player realizes anything regarding the disadvantage he/she faces. What they do realize is that losing money at the track isn't nearly as fun as losing money at a casino or betting their favorite sports teams.

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

Couldn't agree more. When the casual gambler loses at the roulette table...he knows that he was a victim of fate. When he bets a sharp-looking horse and gets beaten by a longshot...he thinks that he was beaten by larceny.

[biggestal99]

Recently the bone-headed, wrong thinking prevalent on this website and around racing as a whole has finally shone a light on the difference between the misguided perception that newcomers are playing the same 16-20% "random-loss" game that most handicappers approach... and the reality that has the newcomers facing a far steeper challenge/house-cut.


.

Only if they truly pick random horses. If they stick with the public’s top three choices. They have some chance. With my wife, when we go to the track together. I will handicap the races and give her two or three horses to choose from. She has a decent chance of cashing the bet and that’s what she is interested in. That and gray horses. Oh I picked a winner....lol.

She cash a few bets at Saratoga/Monmouth she is happy.

Allan

[JerryBoyle]

Casino games and the state lottery don't have the same flaw which has been known to racing all along. The "studied player" and the "casual player" each play the same game with the same equations in those scenarios, and as such those games have far more vast followings.

The guy at the gas station knows that he has exactly the same odds as you do when he steps up to purchase his Powerball ticket, and he keeps playing. The casual player at the track doesn't take long to figure out that he's at a massive disadvantage upon arrival, and he typically never returns.


What!? Are you saying that we need to make the game such that there's no difference between a "studied player" and a "casual player"?? I read this to mean you want horse racing to be something like craps or roulette i.e. no possible way to win in the long run. Forgive me if I misinterpreted...

[airford1]

OK then explain the favorites paying so low. You have a 6/5 and lower in most races. It's unusual to see a 5/2 choice today.

[PoloUK6108]

Of the dozens of friends I’ve invited to the track, only a handful have ever taken me up on it. I’ve only converted my best friend into a horseplayer and fan. :D

[acorn54]

money goes to money. the big bettors have the advantage simply because they have a 12 percent rebate. their performance at handicapping can be alot worse than us little guy's. we are facing a 20% disadvantage up front. the big bettors that have 12% rebates aren't. capice?

[showonly]

I do not believe a reasonable argument can be made that racing is not in a perilous state of decline. There are many contributing factors but I do believe those factors only slow or accelerate the eventual demise of large scale racing throughout the world. Almost everything positive or negative in life is doomed to change and horse racing is certainly no exception. Nothing better to do then build venues so people can race animals and wager upon the outcomes . In addition those who commit a large percentages of their free time to trying to predict the out comes. Should I run into St peter I am going to have some "splainin" to do.

[biggestal99]

money goes to money. the big bettors have the advantage simply because they have a 12 percent rebate. their performance at handicapping can be alot worse than us little guy's. we are facing a 20% disadvantage up front. the big bettors that have 12% rebates aren't. capice?


You have to be a better handicapper if you are facing a larger takeout. for me I am facing bettors and bots on the X that pay 5% commission (or less) and I am facing a 12% nut.


Allan

[thaskalos]

Of the dozens of friends I’ve invited to the track, only a handful have ever taken me up on it. I’ve only converted my best friend into a horseplayer and fan. :D

I have only been able to convert two friends of mine into horseplayers. They have both stopped talking to me...and, deservedly so.