Juvenile Preview

[Bubbles]

http://ntra.com/news.asp?type=news&id=12259

Scroll down to the part about Afleet Alex's work at the extrememly-slow Delaware Park. Look at that final quarter.

:22.71!!!!!:confused:

And they AREN'T SURE about running him in the Juvenile? Geez...

[andicap]

How many Juvy winners have gone on to become 3 yr old champions or win the Kentucky Derby?

They are taking the long view.

[Bubbles]

That, in my honest opinion, is a theory that needs to change. You're looking at a $1.5-million race, and people are skipping it because of the Triple Crown. For the investment to be profitable, the horse has to win at least one leg, and run second in at least one more.

Trainers need to know that some of the best juvenile horses either won't get a mile and a quarter or will peak before then. It makes no sense for the best juvenile horses in the country to skip the richest race that was made for them. You don't see fillies skipping the Juvenile Fillies, do you?

[the little guy]

The idea that people skip the Juvenile because they believe there is some sort of jinx is beyond ridiculous. And of course now it's becoming a self fullfilling prophesy as no good horses even run in the juvenile ( look at last year's joke of a race ). It's a 1.5 Million dollar race that has absolutely NO bearing whatsoever on whether or not a horse will be ready or good enough on the first Saturday in May. Point Given lost by a nose in the Juvenile, I suppose that's why he lost the Derby but dominated in the next 4 3YO races. If Macho Uno hadn't won by a nose he would've been sound for the Derby? What is it, a hex? Come on, it's just another horserace, but one worth almost a million dollars to the winner. Run 'Em!

[OTM Al]

They might as well run them. The idea of a jinx is stupid. The big 2yo winners are just more mature than their competition, something that changes most of the time when they become 3 and begin, for good reason, to look average. Very few can start out that far ahead of the pack and stay there. So you might as well get a piece while you can as it might not be there in a year's time. That said, 2yo earnings should not count toward Derby entry. It is ridiculous that a horse like Action This Day was in the Derby based soley on his BC money. He was primed then and was just average at that level by May.

[Bubbles]

I wouldn't use Action This Day as an example. He ran a decent sixth and was coming pretty well late, albeit well behind Smarty.

[cj]

With the current state of the breeding industry in the US, I can't believe that someone would skip the BC Juvenile for a possible shot at MAYBE even making the TC races.

Breeders seem to want fast, precocious horses as sires now. What better way to demonstrate that than by winning the Juvenile?