Dutrow or Oscar?

[cj]

Looks like Dutrow is turning into the next coming of Oscar Barrera, running horses back in 3 or 4 days. I've seen at least three of these since Sunday. The first was nosed Sunday, the second won the feature today, and the third is in the 5th tomorrow. Short term trend?

[SmartyMarty]

Originally posted by cj
Looks like Dutrow is turning into the next coming of Oscar Barrera, running horses back in 3 or 4 days. I've seen at least three of these since Sunday. The first was nosed Sunday, the second won the feature today, and the third is in the 5th tomorrow. Short term trend?


Dutrow is 27/74 36% on the 1-7 day return over the last 5 years..
Call it LONG term trend..

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by SmartyMarty
Dutrow is 27/74 36% on the 1-7 day return over the last 5 years..
Call it LONG term trend..

Good Stat..........looks like we have another giant database on board!

Larry, is that You!

[Tom]

Welcome Smarty Marty and thanks for sharing.
:D

[cj]

Dutrow is 27/74 36% on the 1-7 day return over the last 5 years..
Call it LONG term trend..

5 years is 210 weeks, which means he uses this move on average once every three weeks. This is 3 times, at least, in FIVE DAYS, two of which were dark. Also, not 7 days, but 3 or 4. Big difference on both counts. The long term trend is good, the short term trend is better.

[cj]

Actually, I had forgotten about Loving last week, so that is 4 in a week.

[SmartyMarty]

Originally posted by cj
Looks like Dutrow is turning into the next coming of Oscar Barrera, running horses back in 3 or 4 days. I've seen at least three of these since Sunday. The first was nosed Sunday, the second won the feature today, and the third is in the 5th tomorrow. Short term trend?



The above was posted on 9/23, so I'm assuming that you're referring to Aggadan , the winner of the 8th race...
He last ran on 9/15, so is NOT returning in 3-4 days..

[cj]

I didn't say each horse. The point is not to get into a pissing match about specific guidelines. For whatever reason, the guy is suddenly running a lot of horses back very fast. This is not his normal MO, thus, its a short term trend I will track. Once he reverts to running one of these every 3 weeks or so, it won't mean much.

There is a similiar thread in here about a guy (Roberson?) who showed up at Hollywood and started winning races with horses right off the claim. He was not a regular at Hollywood. He won with his first four horses I believe, all paying very well. After he did it once, it was time to bet this angle. Once he lost a couple, it was time to get off the bandwagon. Sure enough, he lost several in a row. Yet, if you looked at his long term trend, his stats would say something like 4-12 first off the claim at Hollywood. Pretty good numbers, and I'm sure the ROI was great. But, you already missed the party, don't attend the funeral. That's all I'm trying to say.

I can find many examples of trainers that are 4% with first time starters over a 3 year period with over a 100 starters. Within this set though, you will find several that had each winner within a short period of time.

The long term, over 5 year, trend, is useful. What would be more useful is studying if he ran them like this in clusters in the past. If so, for how long? I'd rather just bet when I recognize the trend. A good capper knows when to abandon ship. If you search for too many stats to back up your thoughts before you bet, the trend will end.

[SmartyMarty]

There is a similiar thread in here about a guy (Roberson?) who showed up at Hollywood and started winning races with horses right off the claim. He was not a regular at Hollywood. He won with his first four horses I believe, all paying very well. After he did it once, it was time to bet this angle. Once he lost a couple, it was time to get off the bandwagon. Sure enough, he lost several in a row. Yet, if you looked at his long term trend, his stats would say something like 4-12 first off the claim at Hollywood. Pretty good numbers, and I'm sure the ROI was great. But, you already missed the party, don't attend the funeral. That's all I'm trying to say.


Trainers always have hot and cold streaks..nothing new..Dutrow is consistenly adroit with these short comeback types YEAR after YEAR..
Ya wanna look for clusters..fine and dandy... enjoy
your cluster concept has no relevance for me in this particular situation..
don't be offended though..that's what makes the game great..
different opinions and perspectives

[Larry Hamilton]

not me, I am not clever enough to think of things like:

But, you already missed the party, don't attend the funeral.

gonna steal that one

[Skanoochies]

BUT YOU ALREADY MISSED THE PARTY DON`T ATTEND THE FUNERAL.

Classic C.J. You coin that?

(P.S. 5 years is 260 weeks.:D }

Skanoochies.:)

[cj]

Originally posted by Skanoochies
BUT YOU ALREADY MISSED THE PARTY DON`T ATTEND THE FUNERAL.

Classic C.J. You coin that?

(P.S. 5 years is 260 weeks.:D }

Skanoochies.:)

I was still half asleep, thanks for the fix.

I've heard a similiar saying somewhere before about the funeral, I probably screwed it up somehow!

[Wiley]

I remember hearing it as "If you didn't go to the wedding, don't go to the funeral". Think from Pack or Axthelm when they used to do the BC races together. They were a hoot.

[garyoz]

Oscar Barrera Jr. was so far ahead of his time in finding "magic" that he stood out in that era. I remember all the frozen samples that NYRA used to collect and keep in case the were able to come up with a new substance lead. NYRA was far clubbier in the 1980's and Oscar shook things up. I remember him being a big favorite of the grandstand railbirds and the shouts of "Oscar Juice." I also remember getting much better prices on Oscar then on the new generation of "super trainers." (to borrow phrases from A. Beyer).

[jk3521]

The good old days of racing are gone forever. Oscar is gone, Laz is gone, Gil Puentes also. If Oscar and Gil Puentes had horses in a triple race it was a sure bet that both horses would finish in the money. Those were classsic trainers. I remember following a trainer by the name of Vincent Nocella. At the beginning of each meet his horses would finish in the money to fill out exactas at long prices. Then near the end of the meet his horses would win. It was as if it was his turn . It seemed that there was more of a brotherhood between trainers in the old days. Pete Ferriola was probably the last of the old school.