Race Prophet

[John]

Hi Guys,

I have to say I am impressed with what I have seen thus far. I am using old Bris and TSN files.the program is fairly easy to use.

Colt Cannon’s Race Prophet 2.0 is a horse racing analysis tool. Race Prophet can read Brisnet(.DRF) and TSN (.EG) racing files.

The program does Calculations that you might do yourself, but the complexity prohibits most of us from attempting it.

A nice feature is the result files are processed after a race file and the results are merged into the resulting .RPF. Also as soon as Scratches are available they are automatically merged into the program too.

The user has the option to select any pace line or let the program generate the best rankings.I have only had this a few days and really cannot say if it profitable.With old files I am on the plus side.

When I first got this I had a few Questions and e-mailed Colt Cannon. He called me the next day. The man is honest and sincere about his product.I don't know why the lease, and not just sell it.

Anyway,I would like those of you who interested to try the free trial [ 7 days ]and then we can give feedback to each other.

Download the Free trial, www.raceprophet.com

Andicap. I am waiting for your response.

JOHN

[andicap]

Hey, John.

I'm very satisfied with HTR, although I'll take a look at the website.
Ken Massa made me some custom programs that enable me to do what I need with all those pace figures.

[klynn52]

John: ive registered, tired to open a few race files, tsn that is.
Program will not open them.I then used the same files in tsn pp
software, the race file opens and works???? Do i need to wait
for a registration key perhaps? lynn

[railbird]

Just loaded R/P looks great but there is no mention of the cost

which can mean its too prohibitive for a small better.

[analyzer]

klynn52- I have tried to load a Procaps data file into this program and it does not find the data file. When I go to Race Prophet folder and then to data folder the file is there. Were you trying to load Procaps files or the regular TSN data files? I figured the program was not set up to read the Procaps data files?

[CapperLou]

Some programs will read the procaps files if you unzip them and change the names of the unzipped to BEL0901.DRF for example.
I have two programs that supposedly only use bris single files which will read the procaps files if you do the above. Give it a try!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[klynn52]

Analy: i changed a tsn psc file to eg. Again , the tsn custom performance software reads it , why not prophet?

[John]

K lynn

I used old Bris drf and TSN .eg files and had no problems. You can e-mail them or I will ask Colt cannon to come over here and answer the Questions.

John

[Lefty]

I have e-mailed this Colt guy several times and they all come back as undeliverable.

[CapperLou]

I sent an email to him off his site on Wed or early Thurs about the procap files and have received no answer as yet!!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[Colt Cannon]

To those you have questions about us not replying to emails, we are in the process of moving things from one server to another, and our IT guy is having kidney stone surgery---- don't worry, everyone will get their full evalutation period once we have the problems settled. With regard to Pro Cap files, we are implementing a change that will take care of that in the mean time you can rename your Pro Cap files and they should work. (Example if file is name cal0619s.zip change it to cal0619i.zip and try processing it, it should work) Sorry for any inconvienences, Colt

[John]

Capperlou, lefty, klynn

I don't know if you got the link to this post that Colt Cannon From Race Prophet posted. I stumbled on it.

Tomorrow I will post some selections using just the projected finish of order. With a few of my own thoughts and see what happens.

[Colt Cannon]

If you go to the website ( www.raceprophet.com )and download and reinstall the program again, it should take care of the Pro Caps files. I forgot to say thanks for John inviting me to the group and I'd like to say thanks to those who have made complimentary remarks----not sure how word got out that our site was up, we hadn't intended to start postings anywhere for a while, but so much for that. I got an email earlier that there is a yahoo group (non profit) also that discusses Race Prophet, it may or may not be of help. http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/RaceProphet/
Thanks again Colt

[analyzer]

I have still not been able to make this work. I have redownloaded the software and from the program the data file still does not show to be there. When I go to c drive and race prophet folder and then data folder the file is there. Anyone got anymore ideas? I am trying to find the uninstall to uninstall the program and then download again to see if anything good happens. HHHEEEELLLPPPP?

[analyzer]

Prob;em solved.

[John]

Hi Colt,

Welcome aboard, Hope you stay for awhile.

On behalf of all the members on PA board I want to thank you for the free trial.

Good Luck, LOL

JOHN

[John]

If you decide to Handicap with Race Prophet be sure you click on button "Horse data" and read it all. Especially "Fitness". Make sure fitness is in the plus numbers.I have seen none with a minus for fitness that are winners.Also keep an eye out for the black or red that are on top. They look to be the best bets.

I really need to do more research. There is a lot to work with here,and there is no limit to the ways you can dissect a race and search for profitable plays. You can select with the "projected finish order" or you can,get really hands-on, and do your own research.

Anyways have fun with Race Prophet.Its Free for several days.

John

[HIGH ROLLER]

I TRIED IT, IT IS A P.O.S.

[midnight]

Thanks for the in depth critical review. Would you mind telling us exactly what was wrong with it?

[lefthandlow]

seems like its a lease type program @ 10.00 a week.So you best

make money cuz the rents due.I tried it and was a bit confused.

It was hit or miss when I tried a few cheap night tracks.I didn't

bet or pick many winners.I did like how it showed the ML and the

current odds on the screen at all times.It was like having supertote

on for one track.I'll deffer to rocajack/john who will post some

plays. I wouldn't be so brave as to post selections as I really don't

feel I could pick a winner.Good luck JOHN.FIRE AWAY..LL

[Colt Cannon]

One of the members had a question about the automatic processing prefences and selecting pace lines manually. To set the "default" method by which your races will be processed, just click on "options" and then click "preferences" and a box will appear so that once set all your files will automatically be processed by these preferences. But you aren't stuck with this.....any time you feel like choosing your own pace lines for one horse or for the entire field, simple click on the "Horse Data" tab---go down 2/3 of the way and click on "Comparison Race"----a program will appear with tabs and names of all the horses simple go to each tab and select a pace line for each horse, the calculations will automatically be done based on your new selections and saved. (see help file)

Thanks
Colt

[Zaf]

Originally posted by lefthandlow
seems like its a lease type program @ 10.00 a week.So you best

make money cuz the rents due.I tried it and was a bit confused.

It was hit or miss when I tried a few cheap night tracks.I didn't

bet or pick many winners.I did like how it showed the ML and the

current odds on the screen at all times.It was like having supertote

on for one track.I'll deffer to rocajack/john who will post some

plays. I wouldn't be so brave as to post selections as I really don't

feel I could pick a winner.Good luck JOHN.FIRE AWAY..LL

Lease Program, $520 a year plus data files ??? Doesn't sound right ????

ZAFONIC

[lefthandlow]

Its 10.00 a week if you sign up for 16weeks..If you choose a month

its 12.50 a week.I'll pass at this time. LL

[John]

These selections I posted at around noon time.

All I did was set it for fast pace Routes and sprints and then selected " projected finish of order"

Race Prophet did fair in Sprints races.

Monmouth
pressed for time. So here goes, Right out of the box.

Monmouth, Bet both to win.....

1r 2-4 OUT sprint

2r 4-1 OUT route

3r 6-1 6 won $3.40 sprint

4r 5-8 8 won $24.00 sprint

5r 2-1 1 won $6.80 pick 3 $391.00 sprint

6r pass

7r 2-5 out sprint

8r pass

9r 4-1 1 won $7.00 route

10r 4-9 out sprint

[Light]

Colt

I am trying to evaluate your program. I was able to successfully put 2 TSN files in and have them processed.

Questions:

1)When I put Bris files in the "race data"folder they are not recognized. When I drop the menu to look for only Bris files,the program sees nothing. How do I get it to recognize Bris files?

2) How do I scratch a horse I don't want evaluated? The help section is not helpful and just says scratched horses will have a line thru them but nothing about how to manually scratch em.

3) There are 2 result columns. One on the left side of the screen is for expected order of finish. The other on the right side of the screen is the expected order of finish based on whatever angle you pick such as "FPS" or"fitness" etc.Back to the first column on the left. What criteria is that order of finish based on?I assume that order cannot be changed like the column on the right,by changing criteria such as FPS etc?

[John]

Light,

I had the same problem, First the file was there. When I went back in to Race Prophet Data file "not there" So I used the drop down box in the Data file and brought up the folder were I store all my Bris and Tsn files. Doubled clicked on the file I wanted and it ran in Race Prophet alright.

Scratches are supposed to enter automatically,like the results do.But it was after noon time and I had seen only a scratch for the first race.I had to shut down and leave for the track.Tonight when I brought the file up all scratches were there. A little to late....

Hope this helps untill Colt gets on line.

John

[Light]

I just figured out why my Bris files were not being recognized. My Bris files are the multiple file format and my Tsn are the single file format that this program requires.

John

Thanks for the response.Regarding the scratches: I am using files that are a month or 2 old. I don't think the program has the ability to retrive scratches that far back. So for the sake of evaluation,I was trying to manually delete them if possible. Is there a way to do that?

[analyzer]

Colt- I have tried to figure out why this program will not show the proper Best Bris Speed at distance? I will be glad to send you last years Breeders Cup data file if you do not have it. I have changed the number of races all the way to 10 and it still will not provide the proper numbers for Best Bris Speed Rating at distance. Incidently, I have downloaded the latest program update. Got any ideas?

[Colt Cannon]

It is pulling down the wrong numbers, we have made a couple of adjustments lately, it will be corrected. I appreciate the notice.
Colt

[John]

Hi Colt,

I should have warned you. That the people on this board take their handicapping seriously. If there are any of those pestie "BUGS" These guys will find them.
Most members are very astute handicappers.


John

[Myhorse1_X]

Cole:

I like to eliminate non contender horses prior to the race. Is there anyway I can scratch or mark horses that are non contenders in your program?

MyHorse1

[Colt Cannon]

In the beta program testing phase we had a "scratch tool". We removed it once we began merging real time scratches. It appears now to have been an oversight not to have kept the manual scratch tool also, and I will be bringing it back as soon as possible.
Thanks Colt

[Light]

Mini Review

Yesterday Louisiana Downs had 13 races including the Super Derby. Using the column on the left,this program picked 1 winner out of 13 races,paid $6.20. There are 9 other options to grade by, that affects the projected order of finish on the right. But there is no pattern as to when you would want to take "FPS" or "fast pace" etc. Unless I can be enlightened as to how to improve the results,I've seen enough.May seem premature of me,but I don't have the patience to go 1-13 unless I've seen better days with the program.It would have had more winners if I took the horse ranked last as the pick. I played 2 other cards,one with a break even result and another similar to this one.Thumbs down for me.

[Light]

More review

Hawthorne today. Using program rank on left side for predicted finish,0-9.

Compared program to mine(homegrown). In the final pick 4 that paid over $800,my program ranked the winners as follows: 3rd,1st,1st,4th. Prophet ranked them 6th,5th,4th,5th.

Not on a crusade here,but 1-13 and 0-9 back to back.Hope you can prove me wrong.

[John]

Light

I played Monmouth.using the top two picks in sprints only. using the button sprint " projected order of finish."

1R 2-6 won $4.80
2R 2-5 won $6.80 DD $22.00 Ex $28.00
6R 2-4 $5.60
7R 4-2 $4.80
9R OUT
10R OUT
11R 6-3 $4.40 Ex. $14.00

Not to shabby.I made a few dollars.

also used the "comparison buttom" in RAce Data to be sure these horses had a Fitness Number.

If you would like to verify the above yourself let me know and I will send you the MTH TSN file.

John

[Colt Cannon]

I think some people are confused on just what Race Prophet 2.0 is.if I were interested in generating picks and selling them, I could do that and this is the tool I would use. Race Prophet 2.0 is like a Daily Racing Form that performs functions that you tell it to. It is as infinite in it's ability to come up with predicted outcomes as the infinite variety of users. Since I have no way of knowing what settings the user will use for pace lines, or if that user will select pace lines him or herself, I can't possibly know what all their results will be, but if they have a methodology (of their own making or someone else's) they should be able to use RP as a tool to make implimenting their application of those methods easier. In a nutshell, RP doesn't spit out a pick, it helps you implement your picking method. However I am an advocate of betting two horses when feasable. That being said I downloaded a TSN file and set the processing preferences at "closest in length" within the last 3 races and within 6 speed points.....(and without any further handicapping at all)......


Anyone who has a Louisiana Downs file can check my accuracy:

1. First Race, -- KJ Gold finished 2nd, LPip Squeak ran out
2. 2nd Race, --- insufficient data to bet
3.3rd Race, -----Hotter than Hot ran out, Wonder of you 2nd
4. 4th Race ---- Spinning time (hadnt raced in 238 days and I wouldn't have bet him) ran out, Shons Secret (which would have been my top pick then) Won Paid $27.80
5. 5th Race--- Broke Again, ran out--L.J. Johnson Won Paid $18.20
6. 6th Race--- Win, Straight Exacta Win, Straight Trifecta Win
Merryin Spring won paid 6.20, Outright Buck 2nd
7. 7th Race--both picks ran out
8. 8th Race --Social King - Won Paid $21.00 , Varoom ran out
9. 9th Race--insufficient data, no bet
10. 10 Race -- South Africa , ran out, Britt's Jules finished 3rd
11. 11th Race--insufficient data no bet (but our 2nd pic won $9.40)
12. 12th Race--Malanato ran out, Zarb's Music Man 2nd ($11.00 place)
13. 13 Race---Insufficient data--Top pick Miss Danali won Pd $8.80

I am not asking you to take my processing preferences as the gospel on how I would have done this particular race (and you can't expect me to accept yours or anyone else's----but believe me I would have done this good or better)
Thanks Colt

[Colt Cannon]

I forgot, RP hit the pick 3 on races 4-5-6 for $654.80 also

And surely I was not the only one that killed at Woodbine and Suffolk on Saturday, just wondering

[John]

Colt,

I have Suffolk Downs file for Saturday. Would you mind posting the results like you did for Louisiana Downs.Also what setings you used in the program so I can be on the same page as you.

Thanks

John

[Colt Cannon]

I'm not trying to pull the wool over anyone's eyes, (I've read enough of the posts here to know that there are some near genuises here and I couldn't get away with being slick anyway) I came here because I was invited and I certainly appreciate that so this will be my last posting of results, because it becomes redundant and appears arrogant to do so....

Just so I won't be accussed of zig zagging, just use the same settings I used earlier ---"closest in length" of the last 3 races within 6 points....

Woodbine for Saturday

1. Insufficient data (for me anyway) but our 2nd pick won $10.70
2. You make the call, the 5 horse only has a 5 furlong race to compare, but he is the fastest horse in FPS, I bet him because they are giving to good of odds for him, He won $33.40
3. Top pick won paid $10.70
4. Top pick won paid $28.10
*** the pick 3 for the last three races paid $11,333.60
5. Both horses ran out
6. Both horses ran out
7. Our second pick finished 2nd
8. Our second pick won paid $33.80
9. Here's on to take note of....our top 2 picks are the 10, 3 but if you check the race data tab, you'll notice the program picked up a warning, that the 3 horse at 2/1 odds looks like he is making a negative drop in class---I bet the 10, 7 for that reason, the 7 horse won and paid $7.20
10. Here's another to take note of how you can utilize RP, the projected order of finish is 12,7,10,4---if you go to the Race Data tab, you see the 12 horse is suspect here---and if you look at the fitness on the 7,10, 4 they all look relatively fit, if you check the Class Differential you can see that the 4 horse is taking a big drop from his last outing----still let's just consider this a loss

Suffolk for Saturday...same settings

1. once again you have a horse that has a 5 furlong race for comparison, so you have to look at his overall FPS, which even though a shorter distance than the other horse, is vastly superior. your call again, I bet overlays like this-- Paid $36.60
2.again I will leave this one up to you because you can see that several horses have missing fractional time.. this happens and you just have to deal with it...our top pick won though paid $6.00
3. Top pick won here $3.60
4. top pick ran out, 2nd pick finished 2nd
5. second pick won paid $3.80
6. both horses ran out
7. top pick won paid $5.00
8. second pick finished 2nd
9. top pick won paid $6.20
10. this is another one of those missing data decisions you have to deal with......but for the sake of helping you deal with it and to show you how my picks ended up (I can hear the groans now) Click on Horse data, then the 5 horse, click on comparison race, his fractional times are missing, so if I want to do anything with him I need to find a very similar race in his past performance to use....his speed index last time out was 81 so, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to look at all his past performances and find a similar speed index at a similar distance....he ran and 80 speed index way way back on August '02 at a higher class--I would only do this if he is fit---he is and he has raced in the last 10 days, and 10 days ago he did run a 81 speed index---I did the same on the 2 horse, the closest I could get was way back on Jan of '04--but he is reasonable fit and has raced in the last 21 days--the 6 horse wasn't much of a contender but I did the same with him choosing his Jun '03 pace line, I just took a chance and left the 4 horse alone for the obvious reason that most of his data was missing------now look at the projected order of finish----the odds weren't overly great, so I chose to bet an exacta and trifecta and not a win---they were small bets and I collected on both, but for the purposes of how Race Prophet did, I still consider this a loss because nobody would have done what I did (at least I don't think they would have)

Thanks
Colt

[Lefty]

Colt, seems to be a little confusion as to price. Would you confirm or state the price?

[Colt Cannon]

The lease is on a sliding scale. One week is $15, 8 weeks and above is $12.50 a week, anything over 16 weeks is $10 a week. (click on "file" and click the first item in the drop down to take you to the purchase box)

Again, I'm not here to sell anyone on Race Prophet. I will be the first to agree that this product is not for everyone and is not in everyone's price range. I was invited by "John" who somehow got to our website, almost before it was up, not sure how he got a line on us. We are still actually in the pre release phase still. Anyway, it's out of the box now so I guess we will deal with it.

I very much appreciate the feedback and comments and even though I will be busy or traveling in the next few weeks I will try to check in when possible. You have a great forum here and I hope that I haven't imposed.

"you might be walking around lucky and not even know it"

Thanks again
Colt Cannon

[sq764]

Colt, is it me, or do you have a great pornstar name??

[Rferguson]

Just wondering why this tool reports a 3 over 3 over 3 $1 Pick Three cost $64? I've emailed you twice and no answer.
Ron F

[John]

Colt, Thank you for the full explanation on Woodbine. I find it to be sincere and honest.

I don't think anyone on this board feels you are trying to pull the wool over their eyes or think you are zig zagging.I think some members are confused on just what Race Prophet will do for them.Your help files are not a complete manual with examples.So some are trying to use RP by the seat of their pants.

Some of the members have pm me and I have told them that RP has a learning curve.Instead of trying to make it win for them self they should be trying to learn all it has to offer.Some will spend their trial period to learn as much as they can. Others will wait until some members post selections to see if others can win with RP then maybe they can too.

I want to thank you for coming on the board and answering the members questions.Please don't be a stranger and advise us of any changes or update that are made in the future.

I wish you all the best with RP.

Regards
John

[CapperLou]

I changed the procap file name to end with lad0925i and still cannot get the program to read it. Also the software did go to the file and then it started to unzip with my winzip--question is should that happen and if so--do you have to get the unzipped file back into the same folder as zipped?

Also having a lot of trouble with resolution.

How do you get to the settings menu to change to what Colt has on the examples above. Cannot find it. Should the FTS also be set to +? And has Colt changed the software to fast pace as John has in his examples for lad0925 for example?

Am posting this since he mentioned he is going out of town and I do not know if he will return email quickly. I uninstalled program until I get help.

All the best,

CapperLou

[Rferguson]

Just My Thoughts About RP.
Very easy to bring up facts that can take hours using the form.
Nice idea to link to the web for odds and results.
My experience with customer support ranks them slightly better that Microsoft.
Selections aren't much good need probably some way to track and report what wins
in what situations like some other programs do.
Would like to see live video and full charts added.
Has the potential to be a monster but right now still in beta.
One simple man's Opinion.
Ron F

[CapperLou]

Colt sent me email and demo OK now. I ran some procap files from BEL, DEL, LAD, WOX last night and results are OK. I used John and Colts advice.

I think it's best to wait for value based on what I saw--when you get one on top or second choice that is good price and as John mentioned check the fitness too. I also noticed that one or two longshots which were not top or 2nd choice happened to be fast pace button choices who were on top as standouts.

I think I would try to match up the choices on left with a fast pace choice and a good price and sort of look for those. Going to have to play around with it a bit to try and find matchups that might work best. The red and black is important as John mentioned.

All the best,

CapperLou

P.S. Today is an off day for me and will run some recent files thru and see if I can find any patterns that seem to work best using what John and Colt have mentioned before. I'm impressed by the big priced winners I've seen thus far.

[hurrikane]

damn it!

If I sat here and readboarded my software you folks would hand me my head.

must be the porn start name.

[Colt Cannon]

I had a moment so I wanted to let you know that a new version with a corrected Best Bris at the Distance and corrected calculator will be posted on www.raceprophet.com later this afternoon. Any time you download a new version remember to reprocess the races so they will reflect the new or updated output, and always reprocess races anytime you change your preference settings.

(not sure what "readboarded" is or "porn start" or why so many people bring up porn?)

[Lefty]

Redboarding is putting up selections after the race.
These guys would like to see some before the race. How about doing some Wed trks today?

[John]

O.K. Lefty I will take a shot at Delaware... OFF THE TURF [ light rain] I don't know if Colt will pass off tracks.

1R 3-4

2R 1-8

3r pass

4R off the turf

5r 5-8

6r 1-7

7R 3-8

8R off the turf

9R 1------- ???

If you asked me for the best play. 6th race 1-7

John

[BIG RED]

Just watched the #1 win in the 6th, easilly

[John]

YUP, the 1# won easy and paid $8.40 $4.20

Then the heavy rains came and the Track went from wet/fast to sloppy in 5 minutes

last three races were cancelled.

[Colt Cannon]

You can go to the website (www.raceprophet.com)and download the new version with the corrections done, and the scratch tool has been put back into the program (under options) as per request from members here. You will also be automatically prompted to reprocess races after you change your settings.

Thanks for you patience,
Colt

[John]

COLT

Thanks for the heads-up. I guess I can override the old vesion.

John

[lefthandlow]

i tried to download the new version 2.3 and it says i have he latest verzion but no scratch tool.can someone help LL

[lefthandlow]

after uninstall i got it to work..thanks.Hope someone can tell us how to make a few qquid with this.ANYONE PICKING WINNERS.LL

[CapperLou]

I was going over some files this evening and found that the longshot I had on top yesterday at Hawthorne Storm Kingdom in 2nd race paid 32.20 and I had this also as a strong top horse with Equisim and also a strong trainer angle on turf--Anthony Granitz in Chicago. Race Prophet had this one second so it was a play.

Today at Turfway I had a very strong play with Equisim in 7th at Turfway--Aly's Wildcat which won at 22.20 and Race Prophet had it 2nd so it was a play here also.

Hope this helps---quite a coincidence!!!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[John]

Nice hits lou,

Colt, sure has proved you can win betting two horses when the odds are right.

John

[Lefty]

John, think 'ol Doc Sartin proved that many yrs ago.

[zieglerjw]

CapperLou: Would you please share some idea about what criteria makes Equisim selections a "STRONG PLAY " ....much obliged if you can !!

[CapperLou]

A strong play meant that with that program the horse was on top in sim, profile, comp. Now you have to remember that some people use different settings on their program. I do not. Hope this helps you. If you need more assistance PM me.

On another note: Is anyone playing BEL or SA with Race Prophet last few days.

John; please post picks somewhere today if possible. This program is very teasing with its longshot possibilities.

All the best,

CapperLou

[John]

Sorry lou, only had time last night to work on Delaware and at noon when I got the scratches one race was down to 4 horses and another race had only three horses . there were scratches all over the Delaware card .so I trashed it. I am glad I did.

I wonder if anyone knows a better way to get scratches beside waiting for them on Equibase. I called Del at 11:00 and got a tape that said, scratches would be given off the program at the track. That sucks for me.Because I go out to the track every day and miss the first race all the time.

John

[CapperLou]

I have the same problem with getting scratches--if anyone knows how to get them earlier--let us know.

Just finished up today with the 10thHAW winner Scottago at 12.20. Do not know if Race Prophet had him. Was so late in getting going today I did not do Race Prophet--and I have no idea how long my demo lasts.

Let us know if the program did well wherever you played today besides Suffolk. Thanks for bringing me up to date!!!

All the best,

CapperLou

P.S. Heading to the dinner table right now!!!!!

[hracingplyr]

where is there site? and do they give a trial run with it?

[CapperLou]

The Equisim website is at www.thorotech.com and they do have a demo available.

Race Prophet has a demo also---there are not many good software sites that have a demo or trial period available.

Hope this helps you!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[John]

hracingplyr

www.Raceprophet.com

[acorn54]

did a 10-day study of the top picks on this software
according to my statisical testing top selections don't win or l ose more than their fair share.
statistical test done was based on the formula in quirin' book "winning at the races"


nw-ew
-------------

---------------
\/ ew(1- ew)
-----
nh

acorn (guy)

[John]

acorn54
----------

Whay software are you refering to.

[acorn54]

i am referring to the software that is the name of this thread
"race prophet"
you can get a free trial period of this software and use 50-cent tsn files
acorn (guy)

[Derek2U]

You guys amaze me in the stupid department. Over & Over.
The course ALL you should take is "TESTS & MEASUREMENTS."
Read these words. There is nothing about T-bred prediction
that doesn't or isn't or can't fall under that course. Why the IV
method sucs? Why regression sucs? What is the POPULATION
of horses (races! tracks!) that's covered under your design?
etc etc ... and you don't have to be a genius in math or science
to use these ideas. The time to START is BEFORE you analyse
data. Ditto when you TEST a system. There are old rules that
still matter because they WORK. And lastly, I wish PA would
put 1 rule into practice: NO ADVERTISING ANY SYSTEM unless the
author shows a "30-CONSECUTIVE-DAY WORKOUT" at 1 track!!
Now, the real method would probly be randomized selection,
but that's science, and there are too many cheats. so, STOP
telling us how "really, really good a system is" and SHOW US.
Let us decide if your method is any good --- even if it comes close
to picking winners --- just let the buyer decide after your workout.
*** now I'm off to work because Wall St hates Columbus Day ...
something don't understand.

[John]

Derek2u
______
Not fair, Colt Cannon said, Here is the full blown program for seven days ,You test it at what ever track you play. If you like it fine.

The last two weeks at Mommouth I won every day.I am using the same software at the tracks running today and can not find a winner. Go figure.

Race Prophet, shows me a lot of defferent ways to look at the outcome of a race.

Today at Suffolk , Race Prophet plays that I like are:

1 race #3

2 race #6

8 race #3

9 race #8

Flat bet and DD if there is value.

John

[WaHoo]

i've noticed most of the good winners are Redboarded (thats after they've ran) why can't some picks from these programs be posted in the Selection Section, oh maybe they don't want the odds knocked down haha. I know the programs hits some good ones But how many did you lose before you hit a winner and if the programs are so great why is everyone looking for another Winning program...I like the way most programers are out to Make money with the Upgrades once they put out a System. If you buy it and they improve it ,why the cost, oh Money for them not from betting the horses.

[Light]

What bothered me most about this and other software is the never ending factors you can manually change to pick a winner.You buy a program to reduce this madness,not increase it. As you saw Colt adjusted my criteria at LD to get the winners he showed(redboarded). This program has at least 10 different criteria you can change and get about 10 different selections in the same race! Of course the reply would be that you have to become skillful in picking your criteria.That's double talk.When I applied the criteria that worked well for Colt at LD,it didn't work so well later.You'd go crazy trying to turn this into a science. As a consumer,I am looking for simplicity in software. Not a cybercapper that makes my handicapping more complicated and confusing.My same feeling for Computrak,Equisim,Master Magician ,etc. I just want a straight answer like when you ask a handicapper,who do you like? He doesn't pull out his list of 18 categories and give you a half hour lecture of who is good in the 18 various categories,which at the end would leave you more in doubt than when you started.

[Zaf]

Excellent points Light.

ZAFONIC

[andicap]

Originally posted by Light
What bothered me most about this and other software is the never ending factors you can manually change to pick a winner.You buy a program to reduce this madness,not increase it. As you saw Colt adjusted my criteria at LD to get the winners he showed(redboarded). This program has at least 10 different criteria you can change and get about 10 different selections in the same race! Of course the reply would be that you have to become skillful in picking your criteria.That's double talk.When I applied the criteria that worked well for Colt at LD,it didn't work so well later.You'd go crazy trying to turn this into a science. As a consumer,I am looking for simplicity in software. Not a cybercapper that makes my handicapping more complicated and confusing.My same feeling for Computrak,Equisim,Master Magician ,etc. I just want a straight answer like when you ask a handicapper,who do you like? He doesn't pull out his list of 18 categories and give you a half hour lecture of who is good in the 18 various categories,which at the end would leave you more in doubt than when you started.

I respectfully disagree with you, Light.
I'm looking for flexibility in a software. I want to tell it what to do, not vice versa.
I suppose it comes down to what you want the software to do for you. I'm not looking for it to pick winners necessarily, but giveme the tools I need to do myself. The more options and flexibility I have, the better.
I presume if you are having trouble deciding how to set up the various options, Cannon or other users would be of help..I know using HTR, Ken Massa and the other users are invaluable resources in giving advice on how to use all the features and options....

[Zaf]

I think Light's gripe is the redboarding. With almost any software you can tweak the criteria after the races are over and come up with 5 or more winners.

ZAFONIC

[Colt Cannon]

If I can I would like to address some of the complaints that have been posted since the last time I was able to check in.

First of all, all of the complaints are "legitimate" in a way. It just depends on how you look at them, so I will reply as best I can.

First----Race Prophet picks don't win-----Well Race Prophet doesn't make picks, it is a tool to assist handicappers in making picks for themselves. It is a mathmatical and organizational tool to assist those who know find those criteria that they are most often looking for to help in the deciscion making process----I can express that no more clearly than it is stated on the "Learn More" tab on our website. The projected order of finish is based on speed only and only on the pace line that you choose to use----further handicapping is necessary.

Second----Readboarding----Someone made a post that Race Prophets picks lost almost every race that they used it on. It may have----but Race Prophet didn't make picks and since I had now way of knowing how the user chose pace lines, I could hardly just accept that at face value----and since the race was already over --the only option available to me was to (as you call it readboard) but the race was over and I was merely trying to demonstrate that different setting do have differing results and if you read what I said---I said that I didn't expect anyone to believe that these would have been my settings -- anymore than the user could expect his settings to be the same as someone elses. Furthermore the exact same settings were used when I was asked to look at other races---I did not optimize the settings -- I used the same ones with good outcome and yes these races were already over too-- so gee wiz you caught me red handed.

Third---Advertising----I didn't come here and post anything about the software, I was invited after some members had found the website and downloaded the program and were having questions. If in fact everyone here that has downloaded the program purchased it, or leased it, it wouldn't change my life much and I certainly wouldn't waste time misrepresenting a product to bunch of smart handicappers anyway.

Race Prophet isn't magic---it helps people do the things they want done----if your so beat up by losing at the track that handicapping isn't fun anymore, by all means find a pic service and purchase your pics from them. If your good this should make you better or at least that was my intention for making it available. If your not good at all, well.....

I know for a fact that some of the users that got the program from reading about it here are doing very well, they have emailed to let me know and let me know how they found out about us.

Everyday I get emails from exited users telling me how well Race Prophet did at this track or that track and how they won a big exacta or trifecta or pick 3 or whatever. My reply is always the same---Race Prophet didn't make the pick --you did, so congratulate yourself.

the following message may be construed as advertising so if advertising nauseates you read no further----we expect to release Race Prophet for purchase in the next week or two--I just wanted those that have leased it to know that all lease payment will be applied to purchase.

Thanks and good luck to all
Colt

[John]

Thanks Colt,Good explanation. I keep telling those that ask,"Race Prophet has a learning curve." I learn something new every time I work with it.

Personally, I favor the "Average pace screen"
If horses appear competitive on speed-I check "Race
Data" for warnings,Over 30 days ,over 50 days,class drops, etc. then I look at the "Fitness" I prefer a horse that is "+" Then I look at "Class Differential" 75% of the winners are "0" or "negative" numbered horses.Then I try to find value from the top horse down.

Now I can tell you this if the post time favorite is not the first or second pick on the average pace screen. Then the favorite is vulnerable.....Earlier today on this link I posted the #3 horse in the 8th race 6-1. He ran second $6.00 and beat the 3/5 favorite who was not a first or second choice on the average pace screen. #3 lost by a head.No big score but if he had won I would have had the $61.00 exacta and the $137.00 trifecta.Frustration indeed.

Colt , please notify me on the purchase price.
John

[Light]

Colt and Andi

Great loophole that software does not pick horses,it's just a tool.That way when the user loses,it's allways his fault.Too inexperienced. You can believe that ,but another school of thought does not. You can't seperate the final selection from the process of the reaching the final selection. And if you use software to make that decision,then the software is responsible.

[PaceAdvantage]

Give me a black box that WORKS any day!!! LOL

[acorn54]

just found out it is $15 per week to use race prophet
i'll stick with equisim which i paid a 1-time fee of $161 and does the same things that race prophet does
acorn (guy)

[First_Place]

With all due respect, Light, it sounds to me like you're looking for a black box that'll automatically spit out winners, without any judgement or tweaking on your part.

Needless to say, none exist, nor will there ever.

FP

[First_Place]

Light sayeth:

"Great loophole that software does not pick horses,it's just a tool.That way when the user loses,it's allways his fault."

That's absolutely correct. Horse race handicapping software is just a medium, i.e., "a tool." You have to know how to use that tool.

The software that really counts is the one inside your brain. Just like a hammer, power saw, level and tape measure, etc. are tools. One man can construct a lavish home; the other using the same tools, a simple dog house.

Like Michael Pizzolla said in his book, Handicapping Magic, in the very first chapter, The Seven Illusions That Make A Bankroll Disappear :

Limiting Illusion 2: The Myth of the Black Box

"This is perhaps the granddaddy of them all. It's the illusion that there is a magic box, computer program, system, set of rules, where all you have to do is add A + B, divide by C, and you're guaranteed enough winners at big enough prices to live comfortably on the French Riviera in the lap of luxury.

If such a thing exists, I don't know about it."

Don't get me wrong. I'm not trying to break your balls but to correct your mindset.

FP

[John]

Light,

Same situation with raceing form and pencil.You make the final selection. If the horse loses. YOU are responsible for that decision. Hopfully a good software program will help you cut the chase so you can spend more time on the final selection.

[Light]

Wow, this software business must be great. I can develop a program that will pick 10 different horses in any given race based on the user's settings and I will have total immunity cause I will allways be right to someone out there who happens to have the right settings by chance.Or, I can redboard and show people how if they used a particular setting,they could have had that $27.00 horse.and that $8000 pk4.Not only that,these guys would believe me and say it's never my fault if they lose.And I'll get all the praise when they win. And when guys like Light bring up practical points that the settings are arbitrary and have no discernable patterns,we'll just get PA to remind him that he is the one living in fantasy land looking for a black box even though that has nothing to do with his point. Confusion must be the key to success. Thanks guys.

[chuck]

Usually in lurk mode but.......

Light is right, In fact the absolute king of the: create a program that produces every horse on top of some rating was Howard Sartin. I spoke to a former software developer of Sartin that was told to do that exact thing. Make sure that every horse was in the top 2 somewhere. It was the shield that he hid behind, when a customer came to him and said that he was not winning, Sartin said that it was the customer's fault because look the winner was on top of factor QWAAV(or whatever) column. This made the customer feel like it was his fault and he must work harder.

I'm not saying that Sartin did not provide some legitiment development in the area of pace handicapping. But I like Light, hate to see the plethera of software programs that are "tools" that have no statistics behind them. Then the developer posts about how he is getting emails of how successful the program is.

Believe me I have purchased a LOT of them.

[andicap]

I'm not saying there are no charlatans out there (sorry for the double negative).
Of course, when people like Sartin are sellig stuff there is hype and caveat emptor.
Dick Mitchell was the worst one guilty of this. His brochures all but promised riches by using Four-in-One, then the new and improved Five-in-one and the even better All-in-One. No, wait, we've got All-in-One. version 2, which is really, really, really the best.
Meanwhile people get getting suckered into buying upgrades every single year. Now that's a con. And Light and Chuck are correct. I attended a couple of All in One seminars and Mitchell & Co. would say the same thing as Sartin: You guys aren't winning because YOU didn't pick the right paceline. It's YOUR fault, not the software.
Now of course Mitchell never said this in his sales brochures. It was always "THIS SOFTWARE WILL MAKE YOU RICH." Never,
"This software will give you tools to make your own decisions that could make you into a profitable handicapper."


But I don't see Colt hyping his program the same way as Mitchell and others do.
I think your criticism of Colt is highly unfair -- he's NOT promising riches. He's not saying in brochures or web sites or forums that his is the greatest thing since the Kel-co calcuator.
He has been nothing but upfront by saying YOU have to make the decisions.

There is a difference between a huckster and a businessman.

And for the record, guys. MOST software sellers do NOT make a lot of money.

[JimG]

Originally posted by andicap


And for the record, guys. MOST software sellers do NOT make a lot of money.

If they can't make a nice living at the windows with their software, why should we buy it?

[JimG]

Originally posted by Light
Colt and Andi

You can't seperate the final selection from the process of the reaching the final selection. And if you use software to make that decision,then the software is responsible.


Huh?? It's my money being bet. How the heck am I not responsible for the final decision? Makes it easier to tell the wife that I lost not due to my decision making, but due to the recommended software pick??

If that were true, I've had losing days with software written by the authors of HSH, HTR, and Equsim! I'll send them a bill and see if they pay it!!

:rolleyes:

[hracingplyr]

i agree alot of these software programs have more bells and whistles on them then u can shake a stick at, they just confuse the hell out of u. re now i am testing equism for 15 days and find it to be an excellent program and very simple to use, been doing very well at belmont, i downloaded the spring meet db that nathan provides for the free trial, what a diff it makes when u profile than just betting a horse blind when he comes in first on the simulator, i like to see horses with top comp and profile ratings, when they come in the top 2 in simulator it even makes the bet better, but i also look at the trainer stats to justify the bet, i don't care how good a horse looks in the simulator, comp or profiler if a trainer is 0 for his lungs with lay-off horses i don't want him. and i think the beauty of this program is the price and the great service from nathan.

see you at the windows

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally posted by Light
And when guys like Light bring up practical points that the settings are arbitrary and have no discernable patterns,we'll just get PA to remind him that he is the one living in fantasy land looking for a black box even though that has nothing to do with his point.

I'm not quite sure how to interpret this line (I'm extree dumb today), but just to let you know Light, I kind of agree with what you've posted in this thread thus far....

What always irked me as well is "The handicappers who perform the best with software are the ones who don't NEED software...." LOL

[CapperLou]

hracingplyr:

Equisim is an excellent program and I have posted about it since I got it in August. It has been wonderful--and is doing well at BEL after starting off slow. My tip to you would be to follow the profiler horses and sim horses together--seems to me to be better value than comp although you will find out for yourself.

Nathan is wonderful with support and the program gives you all kinds of info besides the summary screen etc. Not plugging anything here, but just trying to encourage you to take advantage of a great tool--IMO.

All the best,

CapperLou

P.S. Just using the profile picks and doing research in the database will give you a headstart. You do not have to use different pacelines and different this and that---it's very close to being a "blackbox" although I won't go that far. It's treated me very, very well since I've owned it. Good Luck!!!!!

[andicap]

Originally posted by JimG
If they can't make a nice living at the windows with their software, why should we buy it?

I meant that they are not making a lot of money selling the software.

I agree with your point overall, although I can see where they might be hobbyists. People with an intellectual curiousity about the sport, but who feel uncomfortable betting more than $20-$30 a race. They might have a good ROI but wouldn't make a great deal of money from it. Some people are great handicappers but just can't bet.

[BillW]

Originally posted by JimG
If they can't make a nice living at the windows with their software, why should we buy it?

Jim,

I can make the same argument about the Racing Form.

[JimG]

Originally posted by BillW
Jim,

I can make the same argument about the Racing Form.

Bill,

Are you posting the above to make the point that you don't feel it matters whether the creator of high-end commericial software can win with it or not to you as a potential buyer? If so, I disagree.

Most software I am talking about has proprietary calculations developed by the author that help determine contender rankings (K rating in HTR, Sim rating in Equisim, CompRtg in HSH) The Racing Form does not make any attempt to rank contenders with the data per se, unless your arguing the Beyer figure, but merely displays data for the user to interpret. Therefore, I do not see computer software and the DRF as interchangeable.

[Equineer]

Light,

Pizzola's remarks about software myths and other similar statements are true only because "handicapping" has been morphed to mean "successfully picking winners."

Handicapping always has and always will be about successfully estimating probabilities/odds.

Profits come from shrewd wagering... the financial contest is between pari-mutuel players... the horses compete in a separate but concurrent event on the racetrack.

What you seem to criticize about commercial software stems from the fact that authors/developers respond to marketplace demands. Most players curiously want to play the horses instead of the against each other.

[BillW]

Originally posted by JimG
Bill,

Are you posting the above to make the point that you don't feel it matters whether the creator of high-end commericial software can win with it or not to you as a potential buyer? If so, I disagree.

Most software I am talking about has proprietary calculations developed by the author that help determine contender rankings (K rating in HTR, Sim rating in Equisim, CompRtg in HSH) The Racing Form does not make any attempt to rank contenders with the data per se, unless your arguing the Beyer figure, but merely displays data for the user to interpret. Therefore, I do not see computer software and the DRF as interchangeable.


Jim,

The point I'm making is that the vendors success has nothing to do with the buyers success. What if the vendor is a successful DRF/pencil capper and uses those skills to apply the information on the screen in the same manner as he would with the DRF, which BTW I would expect he would. That does not impact the quality of the program either positively or negatively. And certainly does not impact the buyers ultimate success.

The above is assuming the buyer is not looking for a black box that can automatically supply long term success. If the vendor is claiming that, I would expect him to be successful and the buyer to re-adjust his expectations if he is truely interesting in winning at this game.

Bill

[JimG]

Originally posted by BillW
Jim,

The point I'm making is that the vendors success has nothing to do with the buyers success. What if the vendor is a successful DRF/pencil capper and uses those skills to apply the information on the screen in the same manner as he would with the DRF, which BTW I would expect he would. That does not impact the quality of the program either positively or negatively. And certainly does not impact the buyers ultimate success.

The above is assuming the buyer is not looking for a black box that can automatically supply long term success. If the vendor is claiming that, I would expect him to be successful and the buyer to re-adjust his expectations if he is truely interesting in winning at this game.

Bill

In theory I agree with you regarding the vendors' success does not necessarily impact the buyers' success. However, I think that applies to a small pct. of buyers who have already exhibited a talent for handicapping and wagering. I believe that most who buy software have a strong interest in racing but are not yet consistently profitable, and for those people I think it is a tremendous uphill climb for a user who fits that profile to become a winner with a commercial program that the vendor/author is not winning with.

In closing, I enjoyed the discussion and alternative viewpoint. That's what makes this board special.

[Light]

The argument against software that doesn’t work seems to take a 3 step process.

A) When someone claims the software doesn’t work, he is told the software is merely a tool.

B) When that notion is dispelled, he is told that he is looking for a Black Box that doesn’t exist.I seem to be up to this level.

C) When I dispel that notion, I will be told I am a hopeless case, and need to seek professional help, immediately.

So rather than risk the rath of the software vendor supporters, I will end by saying that I am not now nor have I ever been looking for a Black box. I merely voiced my displeasure with a software product and have yet to hear a coherent argument or proof as to that products validity.

[Colt Cannon]

Light you claim “the software doesn’t work”

What doesn’t work?
(while analyzer caught a couple of bugs, they are now corrected)

Let me see

the 1st fraction calculation---that works
the 2nd fraction calculation—that works
the leader at the half calculation—that works
the 3rd fraction calculation----that works
the average FPS calculation—that works
the overall FPS calculation ---that works
the best speed for a sprint calculation---that works
the best speed for a route calculation----that works
the first half energy consumption calculation---that works
the fitness calculation ------that works
the class differential calculation --- that works
the fast pace ability calculation-----that works
the slow pace ability calculation –that works
the morning line odds chart -----that works
the current odds chart ------------that works
the best bris speed rating chart---that works
the bris run style chart ----------that works
the bris prime power rating chart---that works
the best bris speed at the distance –that works
the earnings chart --------------------that works
the days since last race chart-------that works
the days since last workout chart---that works
the distance of last workout chart---that works
the rank of last workout chart ------that works
the mud pedigree chart------------that works
the turf pedigree chart-------------that works
the distance pedigree chart--------that works
the E1 pace chart ------------------that works
the E2 pace chart ------------------that works
the LP pace chart ------------------that works
the track variant chart-------------that works
sort info by post position---------that works
sort info by program number----that works
sort info by values----------------that works

race data tab---showing projected order based on speed alone, with the horses name program number, silk colors, distance of comparison race, morning line odds and current odds, warning icons for horses that have been away for 30 days, 50 days or horses that may be making a negative drop in class---------------that works

Horse Data tab-------showing 28 pieces of information pertinent to that horse-----that works

Results---showing win, place, show and payouts and exotic pool payouts-----that works

Exotic wage calculator----that works
Scratch tool-----------------that works

Instant processing of $.50 or $1.00 files to give you all this information, that would take you a week with a calculator and a pencil for just one race--------that works

(if you have no need of any of this information, and if you can't make use of it--don't buy Race Propet)

“Lights Fantasy Tab” ---well kiss my ass, this must be the one that doesn’t work----this would be the tab that showed the horse that would win in any situation at any track any time he ran and he would pay 10/1 odds so you could take all your girlfriends to the track and drink champagne in the Jockey Club while everyone around hangs on your every word----because you are the worlds greatest winner…….well bad news Light and other’s that want that tab…. you see I actually do have it and my life is so good you just can’t believe it….but now how big a fool would I be to give that to anyone. See you in the Jockey Club. (lol)

I appreciate your time

Colt Cannon

[Light]

Posted by Colt:

“Lights Fantasy Tab” ---well kiss my ass, this must be the one that doesn’t work----this would be the tab that showed the horse that would win in any situation at any track any time he ran and he would pay 10/1 odds so you could take all your girlfriends to the track and drink champagne in the Jockey Club

By Colt’s remarks, it looks like I’ve entered phase 3

Posted by Light:

C) When I dispel that notion, I will be told I am a hopeless case, and need to seek professional help, immediately.

So that is your proof that the program works? That it is fully functional? I would hope so for your sake. I’ve got to hand it to ya. You software guys really know your politics. You have a way of answering a question without really answering it.

[BillW]

Originally posted by Light
Posted by Colt:

“Lights Fantasy Tab” ---well kiss my ass, this must be the one that doesn’t work----this would be the tab that showed the horse that would win in any situation at any track any time he ran and he would pay 10/1 odds so you could take all your girlfriends to the track and drink champagne in the Jockey Club

By Colt’s remarks, it looks like I’ve entered phase 3

Posted by Light:

C) When I dispel that notion, I will be told I am a hopeless case, and need to seek professional help, immediately.

So that is your proof that the program works? That it is fully functional? I would hope so for your sake. I’ve got to hand it to ya. You software guys really know your politics. You have a way of answering a question without really answering it.

Light,

Why don't you save us a lot of trouble and tell us what your definition of working is.

[Light]

BillW

There are hundreds, if not thousands of meaningless useless software out there. I assure you, they are fully functional. Would you buy them on that basis alone? Of course not. You have a goal, and if that software does not help you achieve that goal, how can you say it works for you.

This software, I.E.Prophet, did not help me achieve my goal:To be a profitable horseplayer.No one buys software to become a losing horseplayer.We can do that on our own without any help. In fact this software made it more difficult to be profitable with it’s myriad of arbitrary settings.Which one is the right setting? Take a guess. IF one of the settings worked on a consistent basis, THEN it would be helpful in achieving my goal to be a profitable horseplayer. Then I could say it had value. As yet no one has proved or demonstrated this all important aspect of this or any other software. And when I declare, it does not work, all I get is the usual rhetoric:it’s a tool,it’s functional,not a black box, you are crazy. Sorry, those are weak and diversionary arguments software vendors prefer hiding behind rather than directly disproving a claim that their product is not good at ranking horses and/or producing a profit.

[BillW]

Light,

There is a difference between not being right for you and jumping all over this guy for "really know your politics.". I totally agree re. software not fitting ones methods and 99% of complaints I hear are from people with ridiculous expectations and mad because a piece of software doesn't make them a winner. Software will not make anyone a winner any more than a betting scheme will.

BTW, I don't sell handicapping software and don't use anyone's software. I do understand software development and understand that there is no magic imparted by a computer that can't be achieved with a Form and a pencil.

Bill

[lefthandlow]

amen

[Light]

BillW

I am not jumping all over Colt. I gave my opinion and the reaction has been to jump all over me. Next time a software maker doesn't want or can't handle an opinion about his product,he shouldn't ask for one, nor offer a free trial.

[edek]

Normally I just hang around and read the posts (learned quite a bit) but felt a need to add my 2 cents to this thread.
I think most will agree that there will never be a "black box" for picking winners so unless a software package markets itself as such, I have no problem with it.
Most programs therefore can only be a tool for the handicapper, either it helps him or it does not. You can spend $5000 for a Shopsmith Mark V but it won't make you a carpenter (What a damn waste that was!).
If the program is marketed as a tool and it performs the calculations as advertised then it can be valuable to the person who needs those calculations.
I wrote a little program for the Palm for a friend that looks like a standard calculator but makes it easier to add/subtract/avg fractional times. Did it make him a winner? No! But he finds it valuable never the less.

Ed

[Larry Hamilton]

I hope this thread goes on for a while as I would rate it among the top 5 ever. Name-calling could ruin it.

What should be apparent is there are two positions.

Programmers sell tools

Handicappers buy black boxes.

Where is the middle ground?

[Lefty]

If there ever was a black box and it was for sale then volume of bets would destroy the prices and the hunt would be on for a new blackbox.

[JimG]

There's one way to get a black box that may work and make you a nice living at the track....BUILD IT YOURSELF, and tell no one about it.

The best you can hope for from commercial software is that it gives you a group of factors that the individual can tinker with (the kind of thing Light evidently does not care for) and you as the user finds something that works . Of course, once enough people find the same group of factors from the commercial software, it will be time to look for something else.

Otherwise, commercial software with downloads really amount to a time saver for today's horseplayer.

Jim

[edek]

I really think we should redefine the term "BlackBox".
As it is being used in the discussion I think "Autobox" or "RoboCapper" (oohh I'm trademarking that!) would be more appropriate. That is a program that does all the work of picking winners for you. You just hit Print and walk to the windows.
To me, a blackbox is a program that does something (useful or not) without you knowing how it actually does it. Programs that are based on documented algorythms (understood or not), ie. Brohammer, Pizzola are Tools.
Strictly speaking, I consider some of the Sartin programs (as far as I understand) to be blackboxes in that they contain some proprietary equations that have not been explained anywhere.
You can argue/rate/review the merits of a "number" only by the results it produces because you do not have any theory to digest. Maybe it is this blind faith that is asked for that puts some people off. Maybe a number produces some winners but how to we know if it is based on sound principles or astrology.

[Equineer]

Light,

I have absolute confidence that Colt and quite a few other serious developers could build you a successful black box that produces graded selections which can be combined with systematic/documented wagering tactics to generate a profit.

The problem is that pari-mutuel wagering always tends to render such software systems useless after they are distributed in the marketplace.

Any system that picks winners is doomed to fail financially after publicity/marketing attracts followers. And no one is going to put the Golden Fleece or Holy Grail up on eBay.

This is why the "software as a flexible tool" approach dominates the commercial marketplace... and rightly so.

Most horseplayers try to pick winners, and many use software as a productivty tool.

[John]

RACE PROPHET

Guys, this is the way I see it.Race Prophet is a decision support program. It is not a black box that spits out a sure thing. Winners in every race. If you pick your spots, be patient and concentrate on overlays, you will be a step ahead of the general betting public. And remember..... anything can happen in a horse race so always bet with the thought in mind,am I getting value.

I found that Race Prophet as a Black Box is quite accurate in MSW races. Were all horses have raced at least once.[ no fts }Also does a pretty good job in picking them to finish 1,2,3, I only have a small sample to go on but my point is this.If Colt Cannon came to the board and stated that he had a black box that produced over 40% winners and hit 10 - 15% exacta. Average win $5.40 exacta around $16.00. You all would all want it.But, when you found out it was for specific race categories you would demean it and send it back. Why,because you may only have one play a day and on some days none.

Can I wait for those plays and will it satisfy my appetite NO!! and neither can you.


I honestly believe.If there ever is going to be a Black Box. it would have to be configured in some way as I mention above.Not as a spot play but as a certain type of race that will appear to be a spot play. I would rather have the whole RP program and search out these golden nuggets on my own.

Race Prophet is honest in what it does for you and so is Colt Cannon. That is a rarity in todays world of horse racing.

John

[Light]

I will repeat myself.No one including myself is looking for a black box here. I would appreciate it if people would stop accusing unconvinced potential customers of looking for one. That is totally irrelevant. The issue here is not a desire for a black box. The issue here is can you prove or demonstrate what you put on the table here.That Race Prophet's has the ability to lead a handicapper to success,however small that may be. As yet there is hard evidence to the contrary,and the only evidence for it is rhetotic.Speaking in general terms,is not proof nor very convincing since that lingo can apply to any hundreds of software out there that are complete failures.

[acorn54]

as for me i simply l ike using equisim because of the all the info it gives me for a 50 cent download of the tsn files versus going to the local stationary store and buying the daily racing form for $5.
i tried the free trial period of race prophet and have no strong opinions except for the fact that it simply gives me less info than i get from equism.
to pay $15 a week for race prophet is absurd when you can get nathan's program (equisim) for a one-time cost of $161
acorn (guy)

[John]

Light. what would you have to do or see.To convince yourself that you might want to try a software out.

John

[Light]

I think I've seen enough.

[John]

I Thought that would be your answer.

[analyzer]

I pointed out to Colt Cannon the error in the program not picking up proper Bris Speed rating numbers at distance. It was corrected and is working properly. I also pointed out the program was not providing the proper number of days since last workout for Foreign horses by checking the program against last years Breeders Cup race data file. This was about 3 weeks ago and that error has not been corrected as of today 10-24-2004. I do not know if anyone else uses this factor in their handicapping process but if you do the program will not show you the correct information for this factor on any race with a foreign horse entered unless a fix is posted prior to the races Saturday. Just in case anyone wants to know.

[lefthandlow]

Did they decide on a price tag for the program??I didn't think

RENTAL would be a big seller!!! LL

[John]

analyzer, lefthandlow

I believe there is a new version that should be out today or in a day or so that has been corrected and has a one time sale price.

[lefthandlow]

good fair price for a winning program... good luck!!LL

[keenang]

I THINK WHAT LIGHT SAYS IS SOMEWHAT TRUE. I REMEBER
FROM THE SARTIN DAYS IF YOU MISSED A HORSE IT WAS BECAUSE YOU PICKED THE WRONG PACE LINE OR YOU DID'NT SEE THE BIAS. AND IF WHAT BILL W. SAID IS TRUE (SOFTWARE CAN'T MAKE YOU A WINNER) WHY WOULD YOU BUY IT? AND IT SEEMS ALL SOFTWARE GIVES YOU THE SAME INFO.(1C 2C 3C SPEED # ETC) SO YOU MIGHT AS WELL BUY THE LEAST EXPENSIVE.
GENE

[Lefty]

I still can't find the price. What's the new onetime price?

[Lefty]

I just dl'd theprgm and copied my tsn advantage file into the race data file of prgm but it's not there. Where do you put the data file to make the prgm work?

[John]

Lefty, if you put your TSN file in race data Click on button that says "progress" click on drop down ,you will see "TSN files "... click on , and you should see your file.

If you are still having a problem. PM me and I will walk you through .

I heard, price will be out in a few days....I payed $195.00

John

[Lefty]

John, thanks. Got it going, now to make some sense of it.

[Zaf]

Hey John,

How about some Breeders Cup selections.

Congrats on the Red Sox :) , Man you guys must be going nuts !!!

Say Hello to Suff, Give him my best !

ZAFONIC

[John]

Zafonic,
Mike, is in New Jersey this week pricing a construction job..Hope he is back for BC day.

BC day is so tough, Great horses, How do you exclude any.I am happy that other tracks are running that afternoon.I don't play on the phone. I go out to the track.

If I play on the BC I will use my BEST program.It is between my two ears and go with my instinct.

I will try to post Aqueduct[ Friday ] later.I really do need the late scratches.

John

[John]

Lefty, Read the help file . It is very informative.

[Zaf]

Originally posted by John
Zafonic,
Mike, is in New Jersey this week pricing a construction job..Hope he is back for BC day.

BC day is so tough, Great horses, How do you exclude any.I am happy that other tracks are running that afternoon.I don't play on the phone. I go out to the track.

If I play on the BC I will use my BEST program.It is between my two ears and go with my instinct.

I will try to post Aqueduct[ Friday ] later.I really do need the late scratches.

John

John,

You are so right. I rarely do well on BC day. Its really hard to get a good handle on a race with 6 or more contenders :eek: .

I never hit those huge exotics in the BC :( . I wouldn't mind cashing a few nice win bets this year :cool:

Good Luck John, Enjoy the BC,

ZAFONIC

[Lefty]

How do you print the screens? I can only print proj order of finnish on left. Not good enough. I asked Colt but he never got back to me.

[Lefty]

Colt got back to me. No way to print anything but summary unless use paint or prgm like snagit but even then, too many pages and now, to much to write dn. He needs a way to summarize the info so it can be printed out in 1-2, no more than 3 pages per race.

[John]

Lefty,

I print out the main page and there is plenty of room for notes.

OR....I will Alt/print the screen to clipboard and copy to Microsoft word and it will print fine.

Hope this helps

John

[Lefty]

Takes too long, too much trble. This one is badly in need of a summary screen.

[Houndog]

PC magazine has a utility that is called PrintNow. It can be downloaded as a zip file. This utility enables you to print directly to the printer. No great thing, but very convenient for printing screen shots. Has a very small footprint and when loaded it sits in your system tray and when you hit alt-Printscrn it prints directly to your printer. Very simple to use.