Speaking of Biases, how do you guys quantify the wind...?

[JPinMaryland]

The sunday races at Belmont, I saw on tv, might make a good case...

The wind was stated to be 20-25 mph, the front and backstretches being into the wind. Track was fast.

The Futurity looked to me to be a classic speed collapse w/ the fav. Fu.Rock Star finishing out of the money after early duel w/ Comacina, Wall St Scandal and Evil Minister. He was like a 1-5 fav (??) so there's got to be some questions here. He shipped in from Calif./Baffert trained.

But others may not see it that way depending on how you quantify the wind. The opening quarter ran in 24.02 (into the wind), the 2nd quarter: 22.86, (probably w/ the wind, not sure where the turn is), 3rd quarter 25.40; 4th: 26.50 (into wind). (last two rounded off)

In the second quarter only Fu Rock Star made up ground on the leaders, so he ran about a 22.10 in the second quarter.

In the 3rd quarter, only Park Ave. Ball made up much, he ran about a 25.00, probably with the wind.

In the last quarter, the guy on tv said they came home in 27 and change, but really Park Ave. (winner) ran a 26.5. Wall St Scandal (placed) a 27.00 and Evil Minister (show) a 28.80. Clearly they were tired in the last quarter, but how much? How much of that was wind and how much of that was fast pace?

Questions:

1. How much do you quantify a 20 mph wind? is a 24 sec. quarter into the wind, dull? pedestrian?

2. How do you view the overall race? To me it was a speed collapse with Fu Rock Star the main victim. But to the tv commentators they were not impressed by this bunch in general. Sense of Style ran the same route a second faster, about 30 min. later. Maybe she is just better?

3. How much effect do you give that the horses werent really pushing it at the end? YOu'd have to watch it on tape, not sure what the chart says, but I dont think any of the horses were really pushed htat final quarter. Not blaming the jocks, just how much credence do you give to a final quarter in 27 sec. given that the winner had the race in hand?

Just like to see what the rest of you think..

[Storm Cadet]

I was there...wind was blowing MORE than 20-25 mph. The flags were straight out. I was wondering what the wind would be like as I drove to Belmont and my SUV was being pushed all over the road.

When I got there, the wind was right in their faces through the long backstretch. Each of the races in the middle and late part of the card were extremely slow, most ran 24/25 1st splits then 48's for the half. And these were grade 1 horses and 2yo at that that usually burn up 21.4's and 22's.

They had nothing left in the tank after running in that gale and the times showed it. I think for the 2yo filly race, it slowed down a bit, but it was rough. No body was on the grandstand side of the track...everybody was on the paddock side being shielded from the wind by the big Belmont structure.

[JPinMaryland]

no kidding? I had no idea of that just watching it on tv.

[JPinMaryland]

correction to the first post...Evil Minister came home in 26.8 not 28.8 or whatever I typed.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Storm Cadet
I was there...wind was blowing MORE than 20-25 mph. The flags were straight out. I was wondering what the wind would be like as I drove to Belmont and my SUV was being pushed all over the road.

When I got there, the wind was right in their faces through the long backstretch. Each of the races in the middle and late part of the card were extremely slow, most ran 24/25 1st splits then 48's for the half. And these were grade 1 horses and 2yo at that that usually burn up 21.4's and 22's.

They had nothing left in the tank after running in that gale and the times showed it. I think for the 2yo filly race, it slowed down a bit, but it was rough. No body was on the grandstand side of the track...everybody was on the paddock side being shielded from the wind by the big Belmont structure.

Great Post ! How the hell would some guy in Ohio find this out if it weren't for the Board.............thanks........

[JPinMaryland]

SPeaking of the fillies in the Matron (does anybody think this is a bad name for a 2 yr old filly race?) what did you think of the race run by Play with Fire?

The track comments read: "made a run at the winner, couldnt get past that one, weakened."

SHe looked blocked to me. I re-ran the tape, at that pt in the race (top of the stretch?) she was between horses and Sense of Style was in front by maybe 3/4 of a length. Play with Fire turned her head to the right, as she angled to the right. It looked like the filly to her inside had veered slighty to the right causing Play w/ Fire to be right behind Sense of Style. She lost a lot of ground after that and so did the other fillys. It is hard to tell what is happening in the tape though. THe camera angle changes just as she turns her head and you cant tell if she's really blocked or not. Best explanation, I can come up with is that it looks as if the filly to her inside caused her to bear out and come right behind Senseo Style. Fire was making a big move right when that happened.

[JustRalph]

Ok........now that I have thought about this a little more......you guys who are making your own figures.......do you ever incorporate this info into your numbers?

[JPinMaryland]

Maybe even more impressive than Play with Fire's move is her pedigree. A Mr. P mare w/ No. Dancer male line, and then there's another cross like that on the bottom half: Princequillo mare w/ No Dancer line:

http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.php?query_type=horse&search_bar=horse&h=PLAY%20WITH%20FIRE3&g=5&inbred=Standard&x2=n&pedloggedin=0

[cj]

Originally posted by JustRalph
Ok........now that I have thought about this a little more......you guys who are making your own figures.......do you ever incorporate this info into your numbers?

But of course, to try to make pace numbers without taking the wind into account would be worse than having none at all. The variant to the pace call will certainly reflect the strong winds.

[JPinMaryland]

So.....what number do you give it, CJ? How do you quantify it?

Correction to above: That was Balletto that was cut off by Sense of Style, not Play with Fire. Play with Fire did tire in the stretch.

Also, the EPSN guys said that the horses at Belmont that day came home with a tail wind. I dunno, I'd have to look at how the course was set up. It looked like they started into the wind and came home into the wind. I guess they could have started them after the first turn out on the back stretch, the oval is huge.

[SmartyMarty]

Always best to check the wind direction and speed before post time. Try Accuweather.com and type in Elmont for Belmont's wind. Map for Belmont's course (with North,East,South,West points) can be found at their website at NYRA.com

[cj]

Originally posted by JPinMaryland
So.....what number do you give it, CJ? How do you quantify it?



I haven't looked at the Sunday card yet. I'll post my findings from the raceday by the end of the week.

The problem days aren't those that are very windy, its those that have big CHANGES in wind during the card. Say, the first 5 races were sunny and calm, then the storm clouds come in and the wind picks up. Days with fairly consistent wind are no problem at all.

[alysheba88]

Wind is one of the most important factors at the Aqueduct winter meet. An everyday player definitely needs to know details about it. Forget trying to quantify it

[SmartyMarty]

Aqueduct is located in Ozone Park. So you can get the wind speed and direction from Accuweather.com..Map of track is at NYRA.com
If you're a lazy type player, then just watch the flag at the A..
Pointing to the left means it's at the horse's back going 6F and should benefit speed...
Reverse if it's going to the right

[Valuist]

Can wind be a factor? Sure. Especially when its over 20 MPH. But lets not get carried away. Despite what some well known figureologists say, its NOT as important as pace or bias. The majority of days at most tracks, the wind will be under 10 MPH. I buy the DRF weekly charts and I'll notate if there's an unusually strong wind but in reality, its not that often. Maybe its true at the Big A inner meet, but I don't play that meet anyways. I think time spent trying to quantify wind could be put to better use.

[andicap]

Originally posted by JustRalph
Great Post ! How the hell would some guy in Ohio find this out if it weren't for the Board.............thanks........

Wait until the news arrived on the Pony Express. Or "the wireless." (and that ain't a cell phone!)

:D :D

[andicap]

Originally posted by SmartyMarty
Aqueduct is located in Ozone Park. So you can get the wind speed and direction from Accuweather.com..Map of track is at NYRA.com
If you're a lazy type player, then just watch the flag at the A..
Pointing to the left means it's at the horse's back going 6F and should benefit speed...
Reverse if it's going to the right

Good moniker. Any relation to the Smarty Marty in the "Mighty Quinn" in the Daily News?

Not so sure about the flag. When I watch Yankee games, the announcers always say the way the flag is blowing is misleading. They say the ballplayers DON"T look at the flag for the wind direction but the bat at the top of the pole in center field that looks like a compass but acts as a weather vane.

[SmartyMarty]

Not so sure about the flag. When I watch Yankee games, the announcers always say the way the flag is blowing is misleading. They say the ballplayers DON"T look at the flag for the wind direction but the bat at the top of the pole in center field that looks like a compass but acts as a weather vane.


__________________

Thanks, I'll keep that in mind when they run the spring Big A meet at Yankee Stadium..

You've been exceeding helpful..

[andicap]

Originally posted by SmartyMarty
Not so sure about the flag. When I watch Yankee games, the announcers always say the way the flag is blowing is misleading. They say the ballplayers DON"T look at the flag for the wind direction but the bat at the top of the pole in center field that looks like a compass but acts as a weather vane.


__________________

Thanks, I'll keep that in mind when they run the spring Big A meet at Yankee Stadium..

You've been exceeding helpful..

Oh, a wise guy, eh? Three lousy posts and he's already obnoxious.

What I meant was watching the flag can be MISLEADING as they point out on the Yankee games. You're better off relying on the Weather Channel for the wind directions, although of course watching the flag may give you a good indication on how strong the wind is blowing.

[BillW]

Usually at a stadium, winds are swirling due to the design of the stauium shell. At a racetrack usually the grandstand is the only obstruction and typically blocks the west. Flags blowing parallel to the stretches (north/south) can probably be trusted as being unobstructied. East/west flow is probably of less interest.

Bill

[Tom]

Or read the Handicapper's Diary in Sim weekly - Litfin puts in wind infor for NYRA tracks. Not all tracks do this and even Litfin is not always very accurates about directions.
This would seem to be a very useful bit of info to put into the chart comnets. Maybe DRF will include it the next decade or two:rolleyes:

[robert99]

Originally posted by cj


The problem days aren't those that are very windy, its those that have big CHANGES in wind during the card. Say, the first 5 races were sunny and calm, then the storm clouds come in and the wind picks up. Days with fairly consistent wind are no problem at all.

cj,

I would not agree with the last point if the races are around different parts of the track. The wind forces are the major items to slow a horse during its glide phase (ie when all four feet are off the ground). The wind speed is the vector component of the wind relative to the horse speed (not the actual wind speed relative to the ground) and is proportional to the square of the relative speed - so even small wind speed below 10 feet per seconds can make a considerable difference, depending if it is against or behind the horse.

If you are using Beyer type corrections for the track variants the relevance of the above will not be so obvious - but we have used better time rating methods in the UK. long before Beyer cribbed his ideas from Ragozin who got them (half baked) from Phil Bull of UK's Timeform (early 1940s era) - and they work on grass as well as dirt.

I note that no one is able or willing to state what the wind corrections should be for various wind speeds and directions.

regards,
Robert
:cool:

[JPinMaryland]

Looking at the "track trends" section of my Belmont stakes program, seems that SW winds may be associated w/ closers. See e.g. Apr 29 and May 4-5 this year. Check that: 29 Apr was at Aqdct, the others at Belmont.

The 2003 program is even more harder to decipher, deep turf closers won all 3 on 5/7 w/ NE and SE winds 10-20. On 4/28 at Aqdct front runners won with NW winds 10-28. Closers won all 3 turfs the next day at Aqdct winds out of SW at 15-25.

Hmmm, I'd definitely like more info on this before making any conclusions. Certains days the wind is variable and you'd really have to be into some sort of weather station to know for sure. Also need to know the actual layout of the particular race. Still a quick look at this seems to suggest that track biases do seem to be associated with strong winds. Not sure about direction...

I tried to pick out the days where the wind was strongest. SW winds might be associated w/ closers, where was the wind two weekends ago?

[JPinMaryland]

Re reading storm cadet's post, I think the wind was from the west in some manner and the races appeared to favor closers, this might confirm the above but we need someone who knows the track. In the juvenile filly's race I think Sight Seek was just that good to hold off closers.

Also where is CJ's conclusions about the races that he promised to post?

[Storm Cadet]

2 week ends ago the wind was straight down the gut of the backstretch...west to east...Belmont sits mostly west to east and faces NORTH so it was in the wind on the back stretch and with the wind down the stretch...hope this helps!

[JPinMaryland]

Seems to confirm the above, westerly winds, for much of the race into their face will act like a wet surface. Perhaps any strong winds would do that, even cross winds would force the horse to work harder as someone else suggested above.

[cj]

Originally posted by JPinMaryland
Re reading storm cadet's post, I think the wind was from the west in some manner and the races appeared to favor closers, this might confirm the above but we need someone who knows the track. In the juvenile filly's race I think Sight Seek was just that good to hold off closers.

Also where is CJ's conclusions about the races that he promised to post?

I was gone all weekend, I'll post them tonight when I get home from work!

[joeprunes]

I believe wind is a factor. Humans use it in foot races, they sheild the wind from the runner in front before they make their move.
and I think its illegal to do it. So wind must account for something...jp

[SmartyMarty]

Originally posted by joeprunes
I believe wind is a factor. Humans use it in foot races, they sheild the wind from the runner in front before they make their move.
and I think its illegal to do it. So wind must account for something...jp


You got it right Prunes..
That's why the horse that's " covered up" at the trots has an edge..

[ratpack]

I read an article a long while back about both wind and heat.

The theory was to "Draft" behind a horse or 2 in high winds or extream heat just like in auto racing.

This way the front horse would get tired fighting the wind and your horse would sit behind him not using as much energy, then swing out at the 1/4 pole and romp home. IN THEORY.

[Storm Cadet]

In human races, they all tuck in behind the leader in distance races...similar to NASCAR racing, the leader cuts the wind for the cars behind who follow just behind their bumpers for less wind drag.

[betchatoo]

Originally posted by Storm Cadet
In human races, they all tuck in behind the leader in distance races...similar to NASCAR racing, the leader cuts the wind for the cars behind who follow just behind their bumpers for less wind drag.

Funny, when I cut wind the people behind me are pissed

[chickenhead]

I think I read something once or heard somewhere, either in relation to cyclists or marathon runners, that the difference between drafting and leading was about 6% of the total energy expended during an event....i.e. the leader expends roughly 6% more energy than the drafter...I'm guessing they were relating that to a zero wind environment...in which case that sounds a bit high for marathon runners, maybe it was cyclists.....

[JPinMaryland]

In cycling, the drafting difference is big, way bigger than that. It's more like 20-25%. Of course the guy in front usually only sits there for a little while then another guy takes over, then another. A team effort but the difference is enormous.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Harness drivers consider the draft effect but jockeys do not have to because they are not as fat as harness drivers. With a fat-ass horse like Silver Charm the wind may matter more, but not with a fish like Real Quiet.
The weight of thoroughbreds as compared to surface area affected is not great enough to consider wind that important as compared to other variables; in other types of racing the variables and the energy loss is not as great as with horses so drag matters more.
In order tov accurately calculate effect on horses in term of lengths lost use this formula for headwind in the stretch:
!/4 length lost per 1/4 mile for sprinters (EP types) in routes and for routers (S types) in sprints for every 20 MPH wind;
1/4 length lost per 1/2 mile for sprinters (EP types) in sprints and for routers (S types) in routes for every 20 MPH wind.
For headwing in the backstretch, use 1/2 the distance.
Do not adjust for headwinds on turns.
_____________
If betting GP, TBD, or CRC during a hurricane, figure the above as a gain for 40 MPHJ wind on both stretches as hurricanes blow counterclockwise same diorection as horses run.

[thelyingthief]

if it makes my horse faster, the wind is GOOD;
if it makes my horse slower, the wind is BAD.

A cyclist moving at 20mph expends 80% of his energy overcoming wind (actually, air) resistance. Cyclists have adopted the peloton to assist them against this resistance. Now, whether Silver Charm had or did not have a fat ass, I'm not qualified to argue; but that Real Quiet and Mr. Charm here were expending a tremendous percentage of their total energy no matter what the derriere that plagued them, since they are moving at 40 mph, I will lovingly assert.

[chickenhead]

Found this online, which correlates closer to what I thought, so I did in fact hear it about running, not cycling.







(2) The energy cost required merely to overcome air resistance (with no wind complicating things) during track running is about 7.5% of the total energy cost associated with middle-distance running - and 13% of the total cost during 100-meter sprinting. However, running behind another runner virtually eliminates air resistance and thus cuts the cost appreciably. In the case of middle-distance running, for example, the rate of oxygen consumption drops by 6.5% (very close to the 7.5% needed to overcome air resistance) when a runner drafts behind another individual. This basically means that a runner with poorer economy, compared to another competitor, could basically become just as economical - or even more economical - than the other individual during a race simply by drafting. Alternatively, it could mean that a runner with a relatively mediocre VO2max could compensate by drafting, which would put less strain on his/her oxygen-delivery system.

But how far behind another runner should you be to save all that energy? Pugh's data revealed a simple answer: One meter! When you run approximately one meter behind another individual of fairly comparable size, your cost of running drops by close to 7%.

[Tom]

Originally posted by betchatoo
Funny, when I cut wind the people behind me are pissed


LOL! You give new meaning to "drafting.":D

[cj]

OK, I did my variants for the card, and below is what I came up with in the end. Surprised me really with all the wind talk.

Keep in mind, I use my own pace pars, which are basically a normal percentage of the final time that the pace call should account for at each distance. Whatever prevailing wind exists at Belmont will already be built into the par. Also, these pars are based on the pace time of the winner, not the leader. I use the 2d call, which is 4f in races up to one mile, and 6f for 1m and over races.

I generally don't separate sprints and routes at Belmont as they are both around one turn and the differences are usually very minor or non-existent. This turned out to be the case as well with Sunday, but I did look at them separately.

There were four sprints, races 1, 3, 5, and 10. The winner's raw figures went as follows:
Pace-Speed
77-96
91-89
65-74
94-88

So, I have pace variants from the final figure as -19, +2, -9, and +6. In this case, there was no obvious trend, and no totally out of whack numbers, so I just average the two middle numbers. I get a variant of -3 (3 slow) to the pace call. In terms of time, that is .14 seconds slow, or slightly less than 1/5 second.

There were 6 routes, races 2,4,6,7,8,9. The winner's raw figures went as follows:
Pace-Speed
68-71
72-77
90-99
83-75
86-86
106-114

These were a little more consistent on the slow side, but not hugely so. I've seen days on the Inner Dirt where every race is between -30 and -40! So, we have -3,-5, -9, +8, 0, -8. Throwing out the high and low of +8 and -9, I average the others to get a pace variant of -4, or .30 seconds in terms of time.

Conclusion: There was a wind which slightly hindered the times to the pace calls, but not nearly so much as I thought reading this thread. The wind had a slightly bigger effect on the route races, which makes sense because they run down the backstretch a longer distance.

I should note the final time variant stayed very consistent throughout the day, but that isn't always a given.

[JPinMaryland]

Wow finally we get the numbers! Quick now, I dont have much time to post since I've got sveral exotics to play at the dog track....

Two questions:

1.What were the distances on these what 8 or 9 races from Belmont? Doesnt this vary a lot and doesnt this reduce the number of meaning ful data pts to uncertainty?

2. Real world problem. Based on your conclusions, if I read it right, raters and closers might be slightly favored by surface conditions but only a little. Then how do I evaluate Sense of Style? If I disagree w/ your conclusion and state that the wind bias really did hurt the pace, my evaluation is way different. I may conclude Sense of STyle is way better than the other two. But if you think the pace did not favor closers, then Balleto and Playwfire are actually quite good based on that outcome. I may say the opposite, track is slow, closers/raters benefit, Ballteo and Playw/ are overrated by that....

Her real time was what about a sec faster than the juv. males? Are Balleto and Play W Fire almost catching her? Or are those horses outclassed and are aided by a big wind advantage? So we might get two radically different conclusions here.

Hmmm......well think about it this way. Maybe there are two entirely different possible scenarios and so you cant use the raw or adjusted times to conclude anything. the scenario has two parts; say 1) juvenile males were cooked on a speed duel or rather, essentially expending energy on the front half of the race. Final times look bad, ARE in fact BAD, but are just entirely out of whack with what reasonable pace would have produced.

2) Senseostyle is running at a very moderate, very nice for her, she will expend energy into the wind but at much less rate than the boys. She is already just getting a major boost from running free/onthelead.

If this were true (there is no proof of course) this would draw opposite conclusion than say Beyer figs from those two races. I think....

[JPinMaryland]

>>> So, we have -3,-5, -9, +8, 0, -8. Throwing out the high and low of +8 and -9, I average the others to get a pace variant of -4, or .30 seconds in terms of time.

Hmm you throw out low and high scores, CJ? Just like olympic gymnastics judging?

Seriously, maybe on a normal day there is reason to clip off the outliers. OTOH...I see quite a few negative times in there. What if the track is really running slow and the one positive time is the only outlier?

Hmm wonder what raced produced the +8 that would be my first question.

What if you toss out the +8? What sort of variant do you get?

Hmm wonder what data pt is represented by Senseostyle?

I would argue that senseostyle's data pt. might be the one most reveered data pt on there?

Why? Because she is obviously at top of her game and running under good conditions. She is obviosly good horse. The other winners? Alw.10.000 or whatever winners? THey could be good racers but Senseostyle has more at stake here, she is MORE LIKELY to be statistical norm.

Im just saying, known for certain good horse, running in important event w/ important rivals....likely that data is very legit.

Is she the 0 pt?

[cj]

I think the thing to keep in mind is that was one VERY weak edition of the Futurity. The horses looked weak coming in, and none had any experience at the distance.

I don't think Sense of Style is any great horse. The speed figures, even forgetting about the pace, usually will tell you pretty quickly if a horse is a great one. I haven't seen that in SOS. She is better than what is out there, but I wouldn't take a short price on her in the Juv Fillies with those numbers. I think the others aren't very far behind at all.

By the way, Sense of Style was last much of the race, so I'm a little confused by some of your comments about the Matron.

[cj]

I wouldn't trust any data based on 2yos as a frame of reference. They are by far the most unpredictable figure wise from race to race, even in winning efforts.

The +8 was the Futurity, and that just means that the pace time was 8 faster than the speed figure. In this case, I think the pace was average, and the race just fell apart late as the horses aren't very good for that supposed class of race.

I actually don't just routinely throw out the high and low, there is a lot more to it programmed in my stuff, but I don't want to bore everyone to death, or even spend the time going into all the different scenarios involving race class, number of races factored in, etc, etc. On this day, none of it changed much. Just averaging the races would have produced similiar results.

I forgot from the last post, the distances were very similiar. This was a very easy day. 10 dirt races, all 4 sprints at 6f, and all 6 routes at 8f or 8.5f. Nothing there to really cause any problems.

Also, as these are on the Beyer scale, keep in mind a pace variant in the single digits, whether slow or fast, isn't really that much in terms of time.

[Valuist]

FWIW,

I thought Balletto was the best horse in the Matron. She had to alter course and cut to the inside in the stretch.

[JPinMaryland]

Ummm, okay, can you explain how your pace figure is calculated? Is it just a straight numerical calculation or is there some sort of curve it is graded on? Also same question on the Equibase pace figure, that two digit number I see in the drf beside the speed factor.

I have never seen this part explained, so could you?

[cj]

Originally posted by JPinMaryland
Ummm, okay, can you explain how your pace figure is calculated? Is it just a straight numerical calculation or is there some sort of curve it is graded on? Also same question on the Equibase pace figure, that two digit number I see in the drf beside the speed factor.

I have never seen this part explained, so could you?

It is just like speed figures, just take the time, apply it to a chart that is made for each track, then adjust it by the pace variant. More info at http://www.pacefigures.com/numbers.html

[JPinMaryland]

Oh on Sense of Style I was confusing her race w/ Sightseeks. Sense o Style broke slow and was last, she saved ground comfortably, and then drew past the field on the turn. A strong showing, I think, given the start. TV commentators seem to agree, as does the betting public.

SHe is a closer by nature, based on what the trainer said. I am not sure this changes the wind analysis much, she was running comfortable and saving ground, being a closer the wind should favor her anyhow.

The issue I have, and one that I think challenges each handicapper theory, is how to evaluate the rest of the field. Were they good to close on her? Or was this an illusion produced by Senseostyle having to work very hard in the early going? Two entirely different conclusions might be reached here. Not sure a strict numerical analysis will help us here, but I'd like to see what theories others come up with.

CJ, you're right, 2 year olds are unpredictable. especially as to form, consistency, etc. BUt what I am saying is that if you took a 2 year old winner from a race w/ good field, wouldnt the speed figures start to coalesce? I am not saying individual juveniles are more consistent, but looking at a pile of data produced by running a group of horses over and over, wouldnt you get consistency? You could look at Beyer figs for those races year after year and....?

But the individuals yeah, okay. I looked at Fu Rock Star's race again and he's a huge, awkward looking colt. He got bumped or brushed just a little in the stretch and he bobbled left and right, just awkward I guess. A big guy like that stops his momentum and he couldnt get it back. So maybe he's not as bad as his final place looks.

Next spring he may have grown into that frame of his, who knows?

[JPinMaryland]

Thank you for the nice link on pace figs. Now can you explain something this guy is saying:

>>>I use pace pars as a basis for my figures. I have pars for most tracks, at distances ranging from 4.5f to 10f. I take the percentage of the time it took the winner to reach the pace call and divide it by the final time. I feel the winner's pace time is much more consistent and a better indicator of the type pace required to win at a certain distance than the time of the leader. When I calculate the pars, I do not use maiden claiming races, nor do I use off track races.

HOw do you take a "percentage of time" and divide it by a "final time." THis to me makes no sense.

I am assuming he has a built in time for a given distance, this would be the "pace par" he mentions. (correct me if this is wrong).

Let's say the pace par is 1:35 for a mile. If the horse runs the mile in 1:35 this would be a 100 pace? And if he runs the mile in 1:34 this would be a 99 or so??? If the pace fig. is less than 100 does that mean that horse was running faster than the built in pat time??

I have no idea, doesnt sound right to me, most pace figs I see are like 80 or 85...It a horse ran a 110 pace seems he would be running a noticeable slower pace, but again...

Is that what that means? i.e. is an 80 pace a slow pace or a fast pace?

And what does he mean by dividing the percentage by a time?

[cj]

The guy is me, so I should be able to answer :D

I need to do a little work on those pages for sure, just have to find the time.

Here is an example of the % thing.

Two six furlong races go in 46.50 1:12.00 and 45.00 1:11.00.

I divide the pace time into the final time to find the percentage of the race it took the winner to get to the pace call. In this case, 46.5/72 and 45/71, which is 64.58% and 63.38%. I use the pace time of the winner, not the leader, to find this percentage, so if the winner came from off the pace, the percentage would be different. I do this for every distance at most tracks to determine the optimal way to run the race for each distance.

As for the scale, the pace numbers are similiar in creation to Beyer speed figures, and use the same type adjustments. If you consider an 80 Beyer Speed Figure fast, than an 80 pace figure is fast. I'd recommend downloading the cards for tomorrow (October 2) and look at the figures for the different big races. They will shed some light on what is fast and what isn't. Its free, just click on the link to download the zip file, there are 5 web page type files included, one each per track.

[JPinMaryland]

Well that's interesting. Answer me this. Lets say the pace par for a certain race is 80. I assume this is the average % of time that winners use up, for that certain length of race.

Okay lets say a very good closer wins the race, say it's Carry Back because I recall he was known for his rapid close. If he won the race, he would figure to score a pace score, more than 80, since he takes his good old time getting to the mile marker or whatever.

ANd let's say a similar race is won by Gun Bow, who likes to run up front, if he wins a race, he is likely to have pace number less than 80 since he get to that mile marker a lot sooner than Carry Back.

Correct so far?

[cj]

Sorry JP,

I'm six hours ahead of EDT so I had went to bed.

You have it in reverse. The faster the pace, the higher the number, just like speed figures.

Generally, if a closer wins the race, his pace figure will be closer to the pace par than most think. When these types win, the pace is generally faster than normal up front, meaning the closers run quicker to keep in range.

It really is very consisitent how close the winner will run within a certain pace range. The excpetions are maidens, NW claiming races, and 2yos. Those can be all over the map, but are usually a much higher % (more speed, less finish) at the pace call.

[sjk]

CJ,

I think that what JP may be trying to get at with the Carry Back/Gun Bow example relates to using the winner's time to calculate pace variants.

I am picturing a race where a horse on the lead (say in :48) ends up in a photo with a horse running from 10 lengths back. The results of the photo would seem to exert a significant effect on the pace figure of the horses involved. If I understand you correctly, if the speed horse wins the photo, his pace figure might appear normal, while if the closer wins the photo the pace figure of the speed horse would be a higher value.

A benefit of using the race time to evaluate pace variants is what you might call "continuity" of the measurement where any small change in the input data leads to a small change in the variant.

[cj]

sjk,

I completely understand what you are saying, but I disagree. I am looking for WINNERS, not close runners up. Many, many times in this game, this race comes down to inches, not lengths.

A head bob in one race isn't going to make a huge difference in the overall pace variant. I never let one race exert too much influence on the overall variant.

I did previously do pars and variants using the leader of the race, but I changed for a couple of reasons. First off, especially with routes, too many horses run off and set way faster than normal paces. These horses were in no way involved in the outcome of the race, and weren't even pressed by the other horses. It can happen in sprints as well, especially at 7f where the pace is call is taken after only 57% of the race has been run.

The second, and most important reason for me, is that everyone else does it that way. You don't get ahead in this game doing things the way everyone else does them. Of course you can't just do something different just for that reason alone, but I think its based in some pretty good logic, and it has really worked for me for a few years now.

I'll give one example of why I do things this way. Lets say Belmont has a 9 race card, and five are on the turf. The other four are all on the dirt, between 6 and 7 furlongs. This is a pretty common scenario. Now, lets three of the races are won from off the pace, one on the lead.

Now, lets say the pace - speed scenarios of the leader - winner looked like this:

100-80, 82-85, 76-60, 90-88. This is also a pretty common day. The second race (82-85) was won on the lead. If I were to make a pace variant based on the leader, I would get that the pace was 20 fast, 3 slow, 16 fast, and 2 fast. Any way you look at it, the variant would come back saying that pace call was running fast that day and deduct points from the leaders of those races.

In reality, the pace call was not fast at all, the actual races just went fast, with two having outright pace battles and a closer coming late to pick up the pieces.

Looking now at the pace - speed scenarios of the winner throughout the race looks like this:

82-80, 82-85, 60-60, 89-88. Now, the pace was +2, -3, 0, and +1. Basically, the track was not fast at all to the pace call. This variant is much closer to reality than saying the track was fast to the pace call merely because a couple pace duels developed.

Am I right every time with this method? Of course not, but I am right more often than someone trying to make a variant from the leader. Using the winner takes into account better the actual pace scenario of the race.

I hope all this rambling makes sense, if not, ask away. Its a method I really believe in, and its been profitable as well. I need the best pace variant I can find, because my overall performance figure takes the pace number heavily into account. Most people have good speed (final time) figures, but not pace figures. When I combine the two, I want to have an edge over others, especially those programs using BRIS or TSN pace figures, which I'll put mine against any time.

[sjk]

CJ,

I appreciate your response. Nothing beats success and I congratulate you on yours.

I use my pace figures in two ways: 1). To help calculate a performance figure for the past races, and 2). To analyze the pace match-up for the race being handicapped.

I think that the way I do the calculation (using the race time) works best for me in the second application where I am most interested in each horse's natural turn of speed than I am in what style of runner is most capable of winning the race (which enters the picture elsewhere in the analysis).

You example makes it clear that my pace variants can be potentially distorted by speedballs who run fast because they are fast and not because of the track condition. In the end, the pace adjustment I use is based on a compromise between raw and adjusted time.

[cj]

Originally posted by cj
I don't think Sense of Style is any great horse. The speed figures, even forgetting about the pace, usually will tell you pretty quickly if a horse is a great one. I haven't seen that in SOS. She is better than what is out there, but I wouldn't take a short price on her in the Juv Fillies with those numbers. I think the others aren't very far behind at all.


I will really bet against this horse now. I think the trip she had yesterday will be exaggerated and she will still be bet pretty heavy. She just didn't have it yesterday, even once clear, never a good sign for a 2yo this late in the year.

[Tee]

This thread has turned into an un-official Sense Of Style discussion.

Anyway I watched replays of the Alcibiades, Matron & Spinaway over & over again.

This biggest thing I see is that Sense Of Style was outside(in the clear) in the NY races & got caught inside the whole way yesterday.

What we don't know is what goes on btwn the ears. Did she resent being hemmed in? Did that take away from her effort?

Many questions yet to be answered. I would not hold this one against her too much.

As to betting her next out, that's a different story.