Exacta play will save your rears.

[teddy]

Hello all.. not been on here in a while but its the best place to trade ideas.

OK I pulled a report on my wagering from NHPLAY for the last 10 years. 10 million buck bet at least.. only one wager was I successful.

Exactas. The whales I have known over the years bet only exactas and tri.

I lost 50k a year screwing around with bets I sucked at.


I learned my lesson and started playing only exactas witha 9% rebate. Im up 3k this month instead of losing 5k. I think I will have a winning year this year or at least feed the addiction and enjoy free entertainment. My bank accounts are skyrocketing.

Now what if I got better at it. Im going to find edges in the place position and try to figure out what I do right in exactas that make me a winner finally.


Please add anything you know about increasing edge. I still play the chalk on top. With larger wagers like $50 a with bc. I read dont ever put anything over 10 to one in the place position because its overbet...

Any other thoughts.. I think on turf races long shots are a better play.

Let my life of losing be your azz saver too. I wonder why its easier to win at exactas??? Cause you get more concentration and not rushed???

[teddy]

dirt Sprint 05624 00172 03% 09% 19% 0.59 0.63 0.63 29.8 $38.9 $147 0.25
Dirt Route 01818 00052 03% 09% 18% 0.56 0.58 0.56 29.1 $39.4 $130 0.23
Turf Sprint 01387 00039 03% 08% 16% 0.57 0.69 0.66 32.0 $40.3 $92 0.26
Turf Route 01955 00062 03% 09% 17% 0.69 0.69 0.64 31.8 $43.7 $158 0.30
Wet Sprint 01948 00058 03% 09% 18% 0.56 0.62 0.58 28.4 $37.7 $87 0.24
Wet Route 00855 00027 03% 10% 20% 0.65 0.75 0.67 26.3 $41.0 $115 0.25
Artf Sprint 00862 00029 03% 09% 19% 0.55 0.61 0.61 28.5 $32.8 $59 0.28
Artf Route 00469 00017 04% 10% 19% 0.82 0.70 0.70 28.0 $45.2 $95 0.30


Longshots to place are dismal in all areas but better on turf. So in exactas maybe nothing 10 to one or above on the ticket to place.


Hold your horses... if the 10 to one is a Computer pick then the returns skyrocket.

HTR=1 00250 00012 05% 18% 28% 0.69 1.16 0.96 17.8 $28.9 $50 0.41
HTR=2 00650 00041 06% 15% 25% 0.99 0.83 0.71 18.3 $31.5 $80 0.51


So if you find one with a great rating u can play it hard

[VigorsTheGrey]

So your “a” is typically a favorite and your “b, c” are typically over 10-1 but not real long after that...do I have that right...or are your “b, c” horses anywhere in the 3-1 to 15-1 range...?

[teddy]

Top class or the top computer selections htr1 and htr2 will move the roi way up for mid range long shots.

CLASS=1 00382 00019 05% 18% 29% 0.69 0.95 0.82 13.8 $27.6 $40
HTR=1 00183 00011 06% 22% 31% 0.81 1.30 0.95 13.2 $27.0 $42 0.51
HTR=2 00469 00035 07% 17% 28% 1.02 0.85 0.74 13.4 $27.5 $38 0.59 0.40

[teddy]

I have no system but what i feel in the race.. usually a key if its an obvious horse and maybe 2 horses on top usually. .. Im doing this to develop a better rule set than my curent non system. Improve the roi 5 percent would be nice.

[Robert Fischer]

my exactas have been pretty bad this past year.

Used 'boxing' and too many horses instead of an opinion too many times.

The main way I've been using exactas lately is to wheel a horse exactly 2nd.
Lot's of ways to bet in the win hole, but the exacta works in many races as a good 'exactly 2nd' tool.

[VigorsTheGrey]

That sounds good...10-1 to 20-1 for place hole, turf races...thank you.

[teddy]

The sole purpose of any handicapper should be to play the most efficient exactas. I believe its the only way to make a profit. And thats with a fat rebate. Its not sexy but its the only thing im close to beating the races.

[VigorsTheGrey]

The sole purpose of any handicapper should be to play the most efficient exactas. I believe its the only way to make a profit. And thats with a fat rebate. Its not sexy but its the only thing im close to beating the races.

Lately, I have thought quite a lot about limiting my play to exactas...using the a/bc formula

My real question is how many exacta to play this way...do I limit my play to the above or branch out to say a/bcde....or b/ac, c/ab....bcde/a...what is most “efficient” here...?

[teddy]

Lately, I have thought quite a lot about limiting my play to exactas...using the a/bc formula

My real question is how many exacta to play this way...do I limit my play to the above or branch out to say a/bcde....or b/ac, c/ab....bcde/a...what is most “efficient” here...?

Well Id say the small the bet the better. Fewer wins but just as much action. My feeling is to bet large on obvvious races. Especially if I like the third or fourth choice better than the 2nd fav.

Reverse racing styles is touted by brisnet. They are pretty smart so i think its worth following. They are also the ones that say nothing above 10 to one for the place hole Which tested out on my software. Except in the rare cases where the longshot has positives the public missed

[VigorsTheGrey]

Well Id say the small the bet the better. Fewer wins but just as much action. My feeling is to bet large on obvvious races. Especially if I like the third or fourth choice better than the 2nd fav.

Reverse racing styles is touted by brisnet. They are pretty smart so i think its worth following. They are also the ones that say nothing above 10 to one for the place hole Which tested out on my software. Except in the rare cases where the longshot has positives the public missed

I think it is ok to play the favorite on top so long as it is the horse that you like and not “just because it is the favorite”...some would disagree but, for my own sanity, I prefer to back my own choice rather than the publics’, per se...even though the public may be right more often...

So what you are saying is, that it is probably better to use a LESS THAN 10-1 in the place hole, assuming one doesn’t like the second or third choices...? Anything longer and the efficiency goes way down...? Except for turf races....?

[teddy]

I think it is ok to play the favorite on top so long as it is the horse that you like and not “just because it is the favorite”...some would disagree but, for my own sanity, I prefer to back my own choice rather than the publics’, per se...even though the public may be right more often...

So what you are saying is, that it is probably better to use a LESS THAN 10-1 in the place hole, assuming one doesn’t like the second or third choices...? Anything longer and the efficiency goes way down...? Except for turf races....?

The book says if you bet over 10 to one in the place hole it better have something your really like... top class number or top performance or connections or maybe trainer roi.... who knows.. but that is the only reason to bet over 10 to one. In the place hole.... in the win hole it will blow up your exacta . Look at the screen shots in previous post... it has a horrible place roi unless its top class or one of the 2 top software pics. .. Both rare cases.

[VigorsTheGrey]

The book says if you bet over 10 to one in the place hole it better have something your really like... top class number or top performance or connections or maybe trainer roi.... who knows.. but that is the only reason to bet over 10 to one. In the place hole.... in the win hole it will blow up your exacta . Look at the screen shots in previous post... it has a horrible place roi unless its top class or one of the 2 top software pics. .. Both rare cases.

There are no titles to the columns so i do not know what the numbers represent, can you explain them...

[teddy]

dirt Sprint 05624 00172 03% 09% 19% 0.59 0.63 0.63 29.8 $38.9 $147 0.25
Dirt Route 01818 00052 03% 09% 18% 0.56 0.58 0.56 29.1 $39.4 $130 0.23
Turf Sprint 01387 00039 03% 08% 16% 0.57 0.69 0.66 32.0 $40.3 $92 0.26
Turf Route 01955 00062 03% 09% 17% 0.69 0.69 0.64 31.8 $43.7 $158 0.30
Wet Sprint 01948 00058 03% 09% 18% 0.56 0.62 0.58 28.4 $37.7 $87 0.24
Wet Route 00855 00027 03% 10% 20% 0.65 0.75 0.67 26.3 $41.0 $115 0.25
Artf Sprint 00862 00029 03% 09% 19% 0.55 0.61 0.61 28.5 $32.8 $59 0.28
Artf Route 00469 00017 04% 10% 19% 0.82 0.70 0.70 28.0 $45.2 $95 0.30


Longshots to place are dismal in all areas but better on turf. So in exactas maybe nothing 10 to one or above on the ticket to place.


Hold your horses... if the 10 to one is a Computer pick then the returns skyrocket.

HTR=1 00250 00012 05% 18% 28% 0.69 1.16 0.96 17.8 $28.9 $50 0.41
HTR=2 00650 00041 06% 15% 25% 0.99 0.83 0.71 18.3 $31.5 $80 0.51


So if you find one with a great rating u can play it hard
ok the highlighted number is the roi for a dollar. so .63 is horrible. If you use him in the exacta your dead meat. Anything above 90 is pretty good.

[VigorsTheGrey]

ok the highlighted number is the roi for a dollar. so .63 is horrible. If you use him in the exacta your dead meat. Anything above 90 is pretty good.

What are the other figure columns?

[teddy]

dirt Sprint 05624 00172 03% 09% 19% 0.59 0.63 0.63 29.8 $38.9 $147 0.25
Dirt Route 01818 00052 03% 09% 18% 0.56 0.58 0.56 29.1 $39.4 $130 0.23

surface, dist ,number of races teste,d actual occurences, percet of time it occured, percent winners, percent placers, percnet showers, roi for win roi for place roi for show, avg payoff. high payoff

[VigorsTheGrey]

Thank you...that helps...
So one other question...in your data, shots 10-1 and over really suck in the place hole...just so i’m clear about this...how much better do those same 10-1 and longer do in the win spot...?

[coachv30]

Interesting topic...this weekend i plan on testing a new exacta strategy. I would like to share it with you and would gladly welcome feedback.

First off...with this strategy, I'm looking for a $24 return or better for $1. The Max total wager is $8.00. I will begin by handicapping the race as usual, narrowing it down to my top 5 contenders. Based on qualitative / quantitative factors, i will identify those top 5 using (A-E). "A" being my top selection, "E" being my fifth selection.

Only selections A and /or B can / will be on top in the exacta, depending on the projected will pays.

At 5 minutes to post, i will look at projections to see which combos meet my $24 goal. I wiil look at the following combos:

A-B, A-C, A-D, A-E as well as B-A, B-C, B-D, B-E..

If by chance, all eight combos are paying $24 or more, then my ticket wii be...

$1 EX- A, B / A,B,C,D,E

Lets say only B-C and B-D meet the criteria....i will then play..

$4 EX- B / C,D- $8

Im interested to see how it goes.

[teddy]

They only suck unless they are top class or top in other catagorieslike early speed or best closer.

[teddy]

Interesting topic...this weekend i plan on testing a new exacta strategy. I would like to share it with you and would gladly welcome feedback.

First off...with this strategy, I'm looking for a $24 return or better for $1. The Max total wager is $8.00. I will begin by handicapping the race as usual, narrowing it down to my top 5 contenders. Based on qualitative / quantitative factors, i will identify those top 5 using (A-E). "A" being my top selection, "E" being my fifth selection.

Only selections A and /or B can / will be on top in the exacta, depending on the projected will pays.

At 5 minutes to post, i will look at projections to see which combos meet my $24 goal. I wiil look at the following combos:

A-B, A-C, A-D, A-E as well as B-A, B-C, B-D, B-E..

If by chance, all eight combos are paying $24 or more, then my ticket wii be...

$1 EX- A, B / A,B,C,D,E

Lets say only B-C and B-D meet the criteria....i will then play..

$4 EX- B / C,D- $8

Im interested to see how it goes.

sounds good. Smashing them on highest paying ones. I still would weight the water based on how well I liked what was left. More on bc than bd

[coachv30]

sounds good. Smashing them on highest paying ones. I still would weight the water based on how well I liked what was left. More on bc than bd

More on the combo paying less?

[coachv30]

sounds good. Smashing them on highest paying ones. I still would weight the water based on how well I liked what was left. More on bc than bd

I get it....more on my higher ranked.

[teddy]

[QUOTE=coachv30;2422227]I get it....more on my higher ranked.[/QUI\


I usually have one I like more for some reason. I will bet a
$100 ab
$50 ac
$20 ad

[teddy]

I have found the local handicapper like NIck at GP is a great place to start when doing your handicapping. His top 2 should be part of your wagers as he knows the local trainers and horses so well. Probably adds a few percentage points to the roi. Also start with Mark at mtn. Build your ticket from there. IF they pitch a horse you like then pitch it. Or if a fav is cold on the board , pitch it. If you rate a horse even money and its 2 to one. Then there is something up. Probably broke down.

[VigorsTheGrey]

They only suck unless they are top class or top in other catagorieslike early speed or best closer.

Does the data suggest that 10-1 or higher that also “are top class or top in other categories like early speed or best closer” out-perform as winners rather than as placers...?

[teddy]

Does the data suggest that 10-1 or higher that also “are top class or top in other categories like early speed or best closer” out-perform as winners rather than as placers...?

Not really but payoffs are huge with a 10 to one on top. Even if the chalk is second.

[Clocker]

Reverse racing styles is touted by brisnet. They are pretty smart so i think its worth following.


I just did a quick search and found the article linked below on Brisnet. It sounds like what you are talking about. They call it "Opposing Pace".



http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/allwaysexacta

[teddy]

I just did a quick search and found the article linked below on Brisnet. It sounds like what you are talking about. They call it "Opposing Pace".



http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/allwaysexacta

Yes I have also read this article but never actually tried to put it into my way during . I tried to see how well it worked on my computer program but was not able to see any corelation I think I will try it in real life today and only bet opposing pace.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Maybe this will help


http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?s=risk+intelligence

[Appy]

" I read dont ever put anything over 10 to one in the place position because its overbet... "

Teddy, I would consider that one of the most costly pieces of bad advice I ever heard. Right on par with automatically tossing anything 8-1 or higher from W contention.
Never fails to amaze me how often the place horse is one of the highest odds horses in the field.

[delsully]

" I read dont ever put anything over 10 to one in the place position because its overbet... "

Teddy, I would consider that one of the most costly pieces of bad advice I ever heard. Right on par with automatically tossing anything 8-1 or higher from W contention.
Never fails to amaze me how often the place horse is one of the highest odds horses in the field.

I had a problem with that also. A quick look at the will pays wouldn’t hurt, either.

[teddy]

Bris net was the ones that proposed to not bet anything over 10 to 1 in the place position on the exact. I would assume they base this upon some data
I hope to purchase my software again and download this and play it for the next 30 days. Starting tomorrow

[pandy]

" I read dont ever put anything over 10 to one in the place position because its overbet... "

Teddy, I would consider that one of the most costly pieces of bad advice I ever heard. Right on par with automatically tossing anything 8-1 or higher from W contention.
Never fails to amaze me how often the place horse is one of the highest odds horses in the field.


I agree. I bet a lot of big longshots and many of them finish 2nd.

[AndyC]

I agree. I bet a lot of big longshots and many of them finish 2nd.

The question is not whether big longshots finish second but whether the probability of them finishing second are reflected in the payoffs. In my not so recent research I found that lower odds horses were underplayed in the underneath slots of verticals and longshots were overplayed. Doesn't mean it happened every time but far more often than not.

[aaron]

I agree. I bet a lot of big longshots and many of them finish 2nd.
I think in a study of long shots it shows, they finish 2nd twice as much as first. If you are playing exacta's, I don't see how you don't use them underneath.

[AndyC]

I think in a study of long shots it shows, they finish 2nd twice as much as first. If you are playing exacta's, I don't see how you don't use them underneath.

If longshots are substantially increasing their chances of finishing 2nd by 100% over finishing first which horses are substantially decreasing their chances to balance the equation?

[teddy]

Well I tried my new software which is HTR and I had roughly about 20 plays. I let the software pick horses that were supposed to have and break even roi on the win and period from there I took all the closers for 2nd with that about a maximum of 3 horses plus any horse that was considered a value horse by the software and it punched and exacted today that paid I think $250. I had 5 winners and missed the 2nd place horse today. Which I think is an anomaly. So basically the day got saved by the one huge exacter. This is my black Box attempt and I think you're gonna do way Better if you put some handicapping into the place position. But the long shot that made up my big exact it was very difficult to come up with. He was not a closer.

[teddy]

2 day results I'm up 11%....on 8k in bets. All of this is rebates. Using Courses in the when position with .98 and closers mostly for place. Only handicapped half the races. Most are black box. It should have been much more but I screwed up one of the bets. Monday and Tuesday I will actually handicap each race and see if that changes .

[FakeNameChanged]

Teddy, interesting subject. While I don't use a black box, my approach is usually some form of A-B-C exacta play. My A's are usually based on my home-grown tote play, B's are either a combo of speed improvement, fulcrum pace qualifier, or a secondary tote play if one occurs. C's can be a dominant early speed play, or just gut-shot that my handicapping points towards. If there's a strong looking favorite, I generally box it with an A. While I didn't mention closers, they're often included in some way by one of the ABC's.

[teddy]

That's cool what is the fulcrum angle. Is that software. I'm using HTR. I think this is just a thing where you try to beat the take out by being more efficient and getting rebates. I've noticed that generally I had a pretty large one every day. That makes up for a lot of the small losses.

[FakeNameChanged]

That's cool what is the fulcrum angle. Is that software. I'm using HTR. I think this is just a thing where you try to beat the take out by being more efficient and getting rebates. I've noticed that generally I had a pretty large one every day. That makes up for a lot of the small losses.No software, although I've developed an excel s.s. to do the tote plays, but it works as well using pen and pencil. The fulcrum is a Michael Pizzola idea from Handicapping Magic book. I've learned that ignoring the fulcrum is at at your own peril when it comes to top three positions. It's also not a lot of work to get the fulcrum in races. I believe there are threads on here covering it. In a nutshell, it's the fastest 2nd call time in last race only providing both the 2nd call and finish were within 5 lengths of the leader. Same surface and approx. type of race, sprint or route. Also the time at 2nd call must not be atypical, meaning it's within 2/5's of a previous time in pp's. From memory so I may be entirely accurate on that last point.

[FakeNameChanged]

No software, although I've developed an excel s.s. to do the tote plays, but it works as well using pen and pencil. The fulcrum is a Michael Pizzola idea from Handicapping Magic book. I've learned that ignoring the fulcrum is at at your own peril when it comes to top three positions. It's also not a lot of work to get the fulcrum in races. I believe there are threads on here covering it. In a nutshell, it's the fastest 2nd call time in last race only providing both the 2nd call and finish were within 5 lengths of the leader. Same surface and approx. type of race, sprint or route. Also the time at 2nd call must not be atypical, meaning it's within 2/5's of a previous time in pp's. From memory so I may not be entirely accurate on that last point.edited for clarification.

[teddy]

Well the roi on my win position horses was .84 today and I lost $150 on exacta wagers...... Makes perfect sense.

[headhawg]

The fulcrum is a Michael Pizzola idea from Handicapping Magic book. I've learned that ignoring the fulcrum is at at your own peril when it comes to top three positions.Jeff P has a couple of posts in the Holy Bull thread that you might find interesting.

[teddy]

imofe

Using the same races and same picks for Exacta betting gives the following table of results.


Ticket Return ROI Hits Strike rate
A/B $259,778 1.020 10,287 8.1%
A/BC $258,522 1.015 18,182 14.3%
AB/AB $258,390 1.015 18,244 14.3%
AB/ABC $254,765 1.000 31,374 24.6%
A/BCD $252,437 0.991 24,268 19.1%
Box3 $246,256 0.967 41,026 32.2%
BCD/A $231,230 0.908 16,735 13.1%
Box4 $230,298 0.904 62,920 49.4%


Ray backtested his play...

This is from another thread....I think for my wagers the ab with abc is best because I want short loss cycles. Playing for rebate money...

My key horses play would be best with the A/bcd...Pretty much what I do now. my bcd are closers or overlays.

.
Ray backtested his play...

This is from another thread....I think for my wagers the ab with abc is best because I want short loss cycles. Playing for rebate money...

My key horses play would be best with the A/bcd...Pretty much what I do now. my bcd are closers or overlays.

[Niko]

Jeff Platt did some very interesting research in this area which I found very helpful. Essentially, place odds are very different than win odds and should be treated accordingly.

The favorite is 32% to win, 20% to place. The 4th favorite is 17% to win, 16% to place. At face value, the favorite has a 52% chance to come in first and second and the 4th favorite only 33%. But, the place odds are much closer, 20% compared to 16%. If the favorite doesn't run their best race, their chances of running second aren't improved relative to the win slot. The 4th or 5th choice may not be good enough to make a winning bid and thus, they have a better chance of picking up the pieces and coming in second. Makes sense after seeing the numbers.

My take - you can't use win odds for determining an overlay in the second spot ...or 3rd, 4th.

That said, lower-priced combinations do seem to be underplayed compared to two longshots in the first two spots.

Would like to hear the take of more successful players.

[teddy]

Jeff Platt did some very interesting research in this area which I found very helpful. Essentially, place odds are very different than win odds and should be treated accordingly.

The favorite is 32% to win, 20% to place. The 4th favorite is 17% to win, 16% to place. At face value, the favorite has a 52% chance to come in first and second and the 4th favorite only 33%. But, the place odds are much closer, 20% compared to 16%. If the favorite doesn't run their best race, their chances of running second aren't improved relative to the win slot. The 4th or 5th choice may not be good enough to make a winning bid and thus, they have a better chance of picking up the pieces and coming in second. Makes sense after seeing the numbers.

My take - you can't use win odds for determining an overlay in the second spot ...or 3rd, 4th.

That said, lower-priced combinations do seem to be underplayed compared to two longshots in the first two spots.

Would like to hear the take of more successful players.

There is mind boggling that the place percentage is that close between the winner and the 4th selection. I'm gonna have to check that out

[Niko]

should have clarified, those aren't meant to be exact percentages. Just an example.

[FakeNameChanged]

Jeff P has a couple of posts in the Holy Bull thread that you might find interesting.
I don't (usually)make the fulcrum one of my top A's, unless of course, it is, haha. There's also an old thread on here by someone who did a study showing the fulcrum pace horse was ITM 50% over a LOT of races, not sure how many. My point was occasionally, the fulcrum is a pace standout and the odds are very favorable, so it gets included in "some" of my plays, not all. Everything works some of the time, never all of the time; tote, speed/pace improvement, fulcrum, top class l.r., etc.-all get a look by me, in who to include. If I throw one out because of someone else's roi study, that's a decision to be made. My meaning was that for me, not including the fulcrum, is at my peril in exacta play. Others on here, say we should include closers in our exacta plays; while I don't have a closer angle, they often get included through some other factor. And they are often not a fulcrum qualifier in their last race only.
Handicapping races has changed so many times over the decades I'm playing, it's one of the attractions in that it keeps making us learn something new to be able to cash a decent ticket.

[AndyC]

Jeff Platt did some very interesting research in this area which I found very helpful. Essentially, place odds are very different than win odds and should be treated accordingly.

The favorite is 32% to win, 20% to place. The 4th favorite is 17% to win, 16% to place. At face value, the favorite has a 52% chance to come in first and second and the 4th favorite only 33%. But, the place odds are much closer, 20% compared to 16%. If the favorite doesn't run their best race, their chances of running second aren't improved relative to the win slot. The 4th or 5th choice may not be good enough to make a winning bid and thus, they have a better chance of picking up the pieces and coming in second. Makes sense after seeing the numbers.

My take - you can't use win odds for determining an overlay in the second spot ...or 3rd, 4th.

That said, lower-priced combinations do seem to be underplayed compared to two longshots in the first two spots.

Would like to hear the take of more successful players.

Unless you are talking about 5 horse fields it is highly improbable for a 4th favorite to win 17% of the time. It's more like 10-11%.

[Jeff P]

Let's eliminate any confusion...

This is what I have in my database, top four in the odds, thoroughbred only, for calendar year 2018:

************************************************** ********************************
POST TIME FAVORITES, 2018 --
FINISH IMPACT
POSITION PLAYS COUNT PCT VALUE Xth or Better
************************************************** ********************************
1ST 40892 15223 0.3723 0.9847 1ST or better 015223/040892 = 0.3723
2ND 40892 8890 0.2174 0.575 2ND or better 024113/040892 = 0.5897
3RD 40892 5741 0.1404 0.3713 3RD or better 029854/040892 = 0.7301
4TH 40892 3912 0.0957 0.2531 4TH or better 033766/040892 = 0.8257
5TH 40892 2785 0.0681 0.1801 5TH or better 036551/040892 = 0.8938
6TH 40892 1929 0.0472 0.1248 6TH or better 038480/040892 = 0.9410
7TH 40892 1166 0.0285 0.0754 7TH or better 039646/040892 = 0.9695
8TH 40892 649 0.0159 0.0421 8TH or better 040295/040892 = 0.9854
9TH 40892 330 0.0081 0.0214 9TH or better 040625/040892 = 0.9935
10TH 40892 171 0.0042 0.0111 10TH or better 040796/040892 = 0.9977
11TH 40892 58 0.0014 0.0037 11TH or better 040854/040892 = 0.9991
12TH 40892 34 0.0008 0.0021 12TH or better 040888/040892 = 0.9999
13TH 40892 1 0 0 13TH or better 040889/040892 = 0.9999
14TH 40892 3 0.0001 0.0003 14TH or better 040892/040892 = 1.0000
15TH 40892 0 0 0 15TH or better 040892/040892 = 1.0000
16TH 40892 0 0 0 16TH or better 040892/040892 = 1.0000
17TH 40892 0 0 0 17TH or better 040892/040892 = 1.0000
18TH 40892 0 0 0 18TH or better 040892/040892 = 1.0000
19TH 40892 0 0 0 19TH or better 040892/040892 = 1.0000
20TH 40892 0 0 0 20TH or better 040892/040892 = 1.0000
************************************************** ********************************


************************************************** ********************************
SECOND CHOICE IN THE ODDS, 2018 --
FINISH IMPACT
POSITION PLAYS COUNT PCT VALUE Xth or Better
************************************************** ********************************
1ST 39342 8578 0.218 0.9914 1ST or better 008578/039342 = 0.2180
2ND 39342 8655 0.22 1.0005 2ND or better 017233/039342 = 0.4380
3RD 39342 6861 0.1744 0.7931 3RD or better 024094/039342 = 0.6124
4TH 39342 5233 0.133 0.6048 4TH or better 029327/039342 = 0.7454
5TH 39342 3893 0.099 0.4502 5TH or better 033220/039342 = 0.8444
6TH 39342 2629 0.0668 0.3038 6TH or better 035849/039342 = 0.9112
7TH 39342 1657 0.0421 0.1915 7TH or better 037506/039342 = 0.9533
8TH 39342 943 0.024 0.1091 8TH or better 038449/039342 = 0.9773
9TH 39342 479 0.0122 0.0555 9TH or better 038928/039342 = 0.9895
10TH 39342 250 0.0064 0.0291 10TH or better 039178/039342 = 0.9958
11TH 39342 107 0.0027 0.0123 11TH or better 039285/039342 = 0.9986
12TH 39342 44 0.0011 0.005 12TH or better 039329/039342 = 0.9997
13TH 39342 8 0.0002 0.0009 13TH or better 039337/039342 = 0.9999
14TH 39342 3 0.0001 0.0005 14TH or better 039340/039342 = 0.9999
15TH 39342 0 0 0 15TH or better 039340/039342 = 0.9999
16TH 39342 0 0 0 16TH or better 039340/039342 = 0.9999
17TH 39342 0 0 0 17TH or better 039340/039342 = 0.9999
18TH 39342 0 0 0 18TH or better 039340/039342 = 0.9999
19TH 39342 0 0 0 19TH or better 039340/039342 = 0.9999
20TH 39342 0 0 0 20TH or better 039340/039342 = 0.9999
************************************************** ********************************



************************************************** ********************************
THIRD CHOICE IN THE ODDS, 2018 --
FINISH IMPACT
POSITION PLAYS COUNT PCT VALUE Xth or Better
************************************************** ********************************
1ST 39239 5862 0.1494 0.9938 1ST or better 005862/039239 = 0.1494
2ND 39239 6968 0.1776 1.1814 2ND or better 012830/039239 = 0.3270
3RD 39239 7095 0.1808 1.2026 3RD or better 019925/039239 = 0.5078
4TH 39239 6203 0.1581 1.0517 4TH or better 026128/039239 = 0.6659
5TH 39239 4913 0.1252 0.8328 5TH or better 031041/039239 = 0.7911
6TH 39239 3740 0.0953 0.6339 6TH or better 034781/039239 = 0.8864
7TH 39239 2194 0.0559 0.3718 7TH or better 036975/039239 = 0.9423
8TH 39239 1223 0.0312 0.2075 8TH or better 038198/039239 = 0.9735
9TH 39239 606 0.0154 0.1024 9TH or better 038804/039239 = 0.9889
10TH 39239 276 0.007 0.0466 10TH or better 039080/039239 = 0.9959
11TH 39239 105 0.0027 0.018 11TH or better 039185/039239 = 0.9986
12TH 39239 40 0.001 0.0067 12TH or better 039225/039239 = 0.9996
13TH 39239 7 0.0002 0.0013 13TH or better 039232/039239 = 0.9998
14TH 39239 1 0 0 14TH or better 039233/039239 = 0.9998
15TH 39239 0 0 0 15TH or better 039233/039239 = 0.9998
16TH 39239 1 0 0 16TH or better 039234/039239 = 0.9999
17TH 39239 0 0 0 17TH or better 039234/039239 = 0.9999
18TH 39239 0 0 0 18TH or better 039234/039239 = 0.9999
19TH 39239 0 0 0 19TH or better 039234/039239 = 0.9999
20TH 39239 1 0 0 20TH or better 039235/039239 = 0.9999
************************************************** ********************************


************************************************** ********************************
FOURTH CHOICE IN THE ODDS, 2018 --
FINISH IMPACT
POSITION PLAYS COUNT PCT VALUE Xth or Better
************************************************** ********************************
1ST 39130 4055 0.1036 0.9951 1ST or better 004055/039130 = 0.1036
2ND 39130 5517 0.141 1.3543 2ND or better 009572/039130 = 0.2446
3RD 39130 6527 0.1668 1.6021 3RD or better 016099/039130 = 0.4114
4TH 39130 7013 0.1792 1.7212 4TH or better 023112/039130 = 0.5906
5TH 39130 5966 0.1525 1.4647 5TH or better 029078/039130 = 0.7431
6TH 39130 4482 0.1145 1.0998 6TH or better 033560/039130 = 0.8577
7TH 39130 2802 0.0716 0.6877 7TH or better 036362/039130 = 0.9293
8TH 39130 1434 0.0366 0.3515 8TH or better 037796/039130 = 0.9659
9TH 39130 792 0.0202 0.194 9TH or better 038588/039130 = 0.9861
10TH 39130 350 0.0089 0.0855 10TH or better 038938/039130 = 0.9951
11TH 39130 127 0.0032 0.0307 11TH or better 039065/039130 = 0.9983
12TH 39130 49 0.0013 0.0125 12TH or better 039114/039130 = 0.9996
13TH 39130 9 0.0002 0.0019 13TH or better 039123/039130 = 0.9998
14TH 39130 4 0.0001 0.001 14TH or better 039127/039130 = 0.9999
15TH 39130 0 0 0 15TH or better 039127/039130 = 0.9999
16TH 39130 0 0 0 16TH or better 039127/039130 = 0.9999
17TH 39130 0 0 0 17TH or better 039127/039130 = 0.9999
18TH 39130 0 0 0 18TH or better 039127/039130 = 0.9999
19TH 39130 0 0 0 19TH or better 039127/039130 = 0.9999
20TH 39130 0 0 0 20TH or better 039127/039130 = 0.9999
************************************************** ********************************


How to read:

There are four tables: Post time favorites, second in the odds, third in the odds, and fourth in the odds.

Within the table for each odds category: The Plays column displays the total number of starters for that odds category. There is one row for each possible finish position. The Count column displays the total number of starters with a finish position matching that row. The PCT column shows the hit rate for that row. The Xth or Better column displays Count, Plays, and PCT hit rate for achieving an Xth or better finish position for that row.

Hope I managed to type most of that out in a way that makes sense,


-jp

.

[teddy]

Ok heres what my software says for top 4
W P exact position..
A 32 22

B 19 20

C 18 15


D 11 14

Amazing the drop off is not so bad.. Not sure how to use this but Pretty interesting. I want to move my Exact to Tri plays as it was the better bet in Rays system by 3 POINTS...

[AndyC]

Ok heres what my software says for top 4
W P exact position..
A 32 22

B 19 20

C 18 15


D 11 14

Amazing the drop off is not so bad.. Not sure how to use this but Pretty interesting. I want to move my Exact to Tri plays as it was the better bet in Rays system by 3 POINTS...

Using Jeff's numbers the drop off for the favorite goes from 37.2% to win to 34.6% to place. The 34.6% being computed from races excluding wins.

[ReplayRandall]

Bottom-line, here's what you're up against when throwing out the top 4 out of the exactas..

Top 4 in Exacta %'s

Favorite- About 59%

2nd Chalk- About 44%

3rd Chalk- 32.7%

4th Chalk- Over 24%

That's a tall order to thread the needle through that haystack.

[teddy]

Welll I tried the tri today and lost but exactas were up 1450 with rebates...


Tri didnt seem to pay that well when I did hit them...Usually barely broke even. Maybe I needed to use a b cd instead of ab/abcd/abcdef.

I think I like better to bet a $50 a/ bcd and reverse for 10.00 bcd/A

or crush a /bc for $100 ticket when Im confident.

Exacta just seems to fit better . I bet 5k on a tues... lol. I have a printout of my spot plays from htr and its deadly if you handicap the selections. Sometimes they are not playable and run up the track but if they look competitive they really fire... adding common sense to computer picks is a big edge. If you play the try with the a/bc/bcd you will pay 120.00 for the race but smash home a $20 tri ticket. Takes a large bankroll to play because you could be down to hitting under 10%.

[coachv30]

Can somebody please explain REBATES to me? I'm almost embarrassed to ask because everyone seems to know what they are. Would this be the same as the WAGER REWARDS on tvg.com?

[teddy]

Every exacts I bet the ads gives me back 9% win or lose. Because of how much I bet. 15 on tri and super. I bet you get swamped with offer now. Lots on here get a cut. Some guy cramer gets half a point for referring me.

[teddy]

If the winner is under 2 to one the exacta paid $22 on average in my small sample of 50 races. Most my winners are under 2 to one. I am going to test to see if I restrict my payoff to min. $22 I will do this on paper. Not changing my style since I am up 4 of 5 days.

[teddy]

I am firmly conviced the bcd with a payoffs are almost allways close to fair value. I had the charlestown 5th race with 25 to one on top of 3/5. It paid $185. I would of thought a hundred. Public is not reversing. Old news to some but worth repeating. Hit rate will drop to 20% but you can boost by using cd/ab instead but I would bet more on cd/a.

[teddy]

Ok Im going to summarize what I have seen. With some great advice From Formula 2000 I was able to move my payoffs up dramatically.

Keying the chalk second pays way way more. If It is under even money you get a big bonus when it runs second. If it i 2 to one you get no bonus.
Playing my computer pics to place if they show they can hold on for second or are closers is a winner for me. Never play even money on top... unless its a horse you love. then bet to win.
also I had a 25 to one and a chalk and got paid almost double the expected.
Try that for a week.

[davew]

teddy, is there a way for you to break down the AB/ABC compared to win by odds?

If A or B are over 5/1 or 10/1 do they do better by themselves?

[teddy]

Well that's kind of open ended I think that if you gonna play 5 to 10 the 1 on top you might want to look at turf races and maiden races as they seem to produce the most long shot winners. Anywhere the public does not have a grasp on the horses a bill to to run is where you should not be playing the favorites.

[teddy]

Recently I have had some luck using my software and taking the top 2 picks with the other horses the software deem as the best closers. And what my software calls value horses. That seems to do pretty good for me I bet $8000 2 days with a 10% profit. Large fields and turf I take more middle priced on top .