Analog to computer handicapping

[Jake]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6002298/

[kingfin66]

Brunker writes some interesting internet related articles. He's really a horse racing guy. I sat next to him at the Emerald Downs handicapping contest in July. He really digs deep into searching for track bias.

All in all, an good story. I have always had this odd feeling about some of the cards that fall in online poker games unless, of course, they are in my favor.

[lefthandlow]

Do you track the bias at a track?.Does anyone here track it? How does one do it accurately w/o watching the races?.Is there a place to get this info on the net?Can it be computerized..??? That should be enough questions.. thank LL

[cj]

Just my personal opinion on track biases.

They do exist, but pretty rarely. Not nearly as often as most handicappers and trainers would have you believe.

To correctly identify a bias is difficult. To try to do so without having personally handicapped the races beforehand is virtually impossible. Just looking at charts, or at replays, or even both together, is going to lead to many erroneous conclusions.

[keilan]

lefthandlow

Do you track the bias at a track?.Does anyone here track it? How does one do it accurately w/o watching the races?.Is there a place to get this info on the net?Can it be computerized..??? That should be enough questions.. thank LL


Observation

We talk about dead rails, live rails, horses running in the 3 path as being advantaged/disadvantaged and occasionally I hear someone talking about post positions. We sometimes talk about short and long runs to the 1st turn, tight turns versus sweeping turns. It seems to me this board continually talks about track biases, track profile, track condition as if all three were interchangeable.

Somehow players never seem to talk much about how the configuration of the turf course and how that can influence ones selections when the rail is moved 15- 30 feet from the hedge. I suspect if we did we would just call it a track bias.

Until someone defines track biases, track profile, track condition so that everyone is operating from the same position these discussions become futile very quickly imo.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by kingfin66
Brunker writes some interesting internet related articles. He's really a horse racing guy. I sat next to him at the Emerald Downs handicapping contest in July. He really digs deep into searching for track bias.

All in all, an good story. I have always had this odd feeling about some of the cards that fall in online poker games unless, of course, they are in my favor.

I like Brunker's stuff. I just exhcanged emails with him this week. We talked about him coming over here to the PA board and checking us out. He tells me that the ponies are his real game.

[kingfin66]

Originally posted by lefthandlow
Do you track the bias at a track?.Does anyone here track it? How does one do it accurately w/o watching the races?.Is there a place to get this info on the net?Can it be computerized..??? That should be enough questions.. thank LL

Let's see: No; don't know; it helps to watch the races; don't know; don't know.

[andicap]

check the result charts -- see which horses are improving after trips on a (supposedly) dead rail. Or do some horses decine after a trip on a golden rail?
I wouldn't' use one horse as a trend but if you see a few you might.
same with post positions, etc.

[stuball]

I have come to the point where I think track bias is overated.

On only rare occasions can the bias be reliably detected and by

then it is too late to be of any use...because it can change as the

day progresses....to base handicapping decisions on track bias

can lead to a lot of dead ends and wrong turns..but what do I

know??

Stuball

:confused:

[kenwoodallpromos]

There is almost always some kind of bias which helps or hinders a certain horse in a certain race.
The trick is knowing ahead of time which bias affects which horses enough to help you determine the outcome.
As far as a track surface bias, the tracks help by labeling off-tracks and turf tracks if bad enough.

[RXB]

As I posted once before, if there is no such thing as a bias, explain the huge difference between dirt and grass racing. Grass races have slower paces, and yet the finishers win a lot more often than their counterparts on dirt. Sounds like a bias to me.

[keilan]

RXB

As I posted once before, if there is no such thing as a bias,

So I guess that's final :confused: :confused:

[cj]

Of course there are biases, but most of them are built in, not the weather induced or track maintenance ones most people speak of when referring to biases.

[lefthandlow]

I was kind of thinking on the idea that a horse ran inside on

a dead rail or closed on a speed Favoring track I'd mark these down

and maybe bet a little more than usual if this horses run back

in the same class ect.I didn't mean show up for the 1st race and

see a few wire the field and bet the speed horse in the 7th race.

I think there is value in this but there is a lot of work involved.

One handicapper on the board mentioned this about a Maiden that won

the other day from a speed bias day Travers Day I think and he

pounded this horse and got 2-1 but beat the ML favorite eazily

as they came out of the same race.Grass is another story I agree

no Bias there.Besides Grass is almost impossible..Now can this be

done w/o spending all day with the charts..Thanks all for your

thoughts.Does anyone use this approach.. LL.. and I thought golf was hard!!