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Teach
01-14-2019, 01:42 PM
The weather: Forecast for Kansas City next Sunday evening calls for bitter cold. Not windy, but extremely cold. The temperature, at best, will struggle to reach 20 degrees. There is also snow in the forecast for the preceding day, Saturday. Although similar, this isn’t exactly the same weather-condition scenario that players and fans experienced at Gillette in Sunday afternoon’s Patriots win over the LA Chargers. It should be appreciably colder. I should add to the equation the impact of Saturday’s predicted snow, and the impact of any melting on the Arrowhead turf. I say melting because…

The field: I should note that Arrowhead Stadium has a recently-installed underground heating system that will keep the playing-field surface-temperature at a minimum of 40 degrees. That could make for very slippery conditions (even if the field is covered before game-time). Artificially, the Chiefs create a field-condition that resembles our New England area’s “mud-season” (usually late-winter, early spring). In fact, some homes around have “mud-rooms” that allow family members and guests to take off their boots, sneakers, etc. before entering the main portion of the house.

The impact of playing conditions: In expected conditions like these, the offense has a distinct advantage (all the more reason to control the football). Receivers know exactly where they’re going, i.e., their routes. Ball carriers too have an edge in this sloppy-field scenario.

The footwear: The players’ cleats must provide traction. Flat-soled shoes will not cut it!

The psychology: The Patriots surprised even their harshest critics by handily defeating the LA Chargers. I believe it was Patriots best game of the 2018-2019 season. The Patriots must build on that victory. They cannot afford to become complacent. They can’t rest on their laurels. Each player: “Must do his job!” To think that the Patriots are just one win away from yet another trip to the Super Bowl. For some on the Patriots team, it may be their “last hurrah”. For others, quite possibly, their only chance. There must be commitment. The players need to live in the moment. They need to seize the moment. “Carpe Diem!” The start of the game is critical. There can be no let up. Coming from behind in these type of games is difficult. Just ask the Colts.

The coaches:[/B] This AFC title game should be the ultimate football “chess-match”. The 20-year veteran Andy Reid against the “Dean of NFL Coaches,” Bill Belichick. Who said the game of football wasn’t cerebral. The coaches may have designed plays; yet the players must execute. I believe, when all is taken into account, this game shapes up to be a very exciting, hard-fought, contest.

In my next commentary, I’ll dissect the Chiefs vs. Colts match-up. I’ll also single out the key players for both sides. Until then…

Teach
01-14-2019, 03:41 PM
An update on the Kansas City weather forecast. According to the Weather Channel, snow will now begin on Friday. Saturday looks like a snowy day. A “Norther” that’s coming directly from the Arctic Circle is expected to take cold temps all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico. Kansas City will be lucky to climb out of the teens on Sunday. In a word: frigid. “Run…run…run your team swiftly down the field. Merrily…merrily…merrily…merrily a Super Bowl-team we'll wield."

Teach
01-14-2019, 05:26 PM
First Quarter:

What immediately catches your attention, on the very first play from scrimmage: how fast the Auburn product, #55, Dee Ford, comes off his left defensive end position to tackle the ball-carrier as he reaches the line of scrimmage. In military tactics, they’d call it a “single envelopment”. He has to be picked up, or he can wreak havoc coming quickly off the left side. #10, Tyreek Hill, is dangerous as punt-returner. He also catches passes. He goes well to his left. Flanker reverse.

The Chiefs QB, Patrick Mahomes II, is “an athlete.” Agile. Mobile. Also, “cocky”. Makes contorted throws…and connects. Great eye-hand coordination. Great delivery, even sidearm. He’ll be much more mobile than Philip Rivers. Can Mahomes be unnerved? Unsettled? Must be pressured. If anything, he tends to throw low. Yet, he threw 50 TDs. However, he threw 12 interceptions (Three against Rams). Beware of his hard-count! Colts did not have much of a pass-rush. In my opinion, the key: Stop Mahomes!

TE, #87, Travis Kelce, is dangerous. He must be guarded. He has a way of getting open. Colts’ zone pass-defense could not stop him. Too many seams. Damien Williams is another weapon in their offensive arsenal. The Colts motto in the first quarter had to be: “Three-and-out.” I believe the game was over in the first quarter. The Colts looked unsettled. Out of sorts. Luck - he’s from Houston, TX – appeared cold. He had some passes batted down. Chiefs ran through Colts “like hot knife through butter”.

End of first quarter, Chiefs gained 185 yards; the Colts, 12 yds. Chiefs, 14; Colts, 0.

Teach
01-14-2019, 06:46 PM
If you take into account the expected weather conditions, I ask: "Are the Patriots and Chiefs going to put up 57.5 points?" "The Freezer Bowl" between Cincinnati and San Diego back in 1982 combined for 34 points.

Teach
01-15-2019, 06:50 AM
Latest Kansas City forecast has high temp pegged at 12 degrees. Lower, at game-time. A wind from the NW that features gusts to 10 mph. Some mixed precipitation on Friday, snow on Saturday.

If you're going out to the game from New England, I'd consider getting updated forecasts. The way it looks, it may be tough to get into KC International (about 10 to 15 miles north of downtown Kansas City) on Saturday. Arrowhead is east of the downtown out on Route #70.

pandy
01-15-2019, 07:22 AM
The like the Chiefs Sunday, the Patriots are the best team in the history of football when they're home at Foxboro, but they can be beaten on the road. They probably have a way of cheating in Gillette stadium. The whole thing with beating the Patriots is the coaching strategy. You have to have good schemes.

It amazes me how teams let the Patriots destroy them with 6 yard passes, when the Patriots don't have any speed threats down field. The Chargers defensive strategy, staying with their deep zone, was idiotic against the Patriots. I would double team Edelman and blitz often. You have to put some pressure on Brady and make them keep a back in for protection, otherwise he keeps throwing those short passes to the running backs.

Teach
01-15-2019, 08:23 AM
Second Quarter Observations:

The Kansas City Chiefs have four (4) major “weapons,” e.g., Mahomes, Hill, Williams and Watkins. Those four are priority #1 for the Patriots if they are to advance to the Super Bowl in Atlanta. You could say: “It’s the Pats Against Patrick and Company”. Mahomes can’t be allowed to get comfortable. He must be made to feel “self-doubt”. Question himself!


In analysis, the Chiefs continued to steamroll over the Colts in the second quarter. Metaphorically, the Colts were like deer who were “looking into the headlights.” Was it the crowd? The stadium? The aura? The weather? Whatever it was, the Colts weren’t ready when the “opening bell” sounded.

Throughout much of the second quarter the Chiefs continued to “steam-roll” over the Colts. The Colts’ zone coverage wasn’t working. The only thing it did do was to prevent Mahomes from “freelancing on his feet”. If the Patriots go to “man coverage,” Mahomes becomes much more of a threat to run. That will add a further dimension to the Chiefs offense. This isn’t Philip Rivers we’re dealing with. One thing’s clear, Mahomes has a quick release. He’s capable of throwing lasers. Yet, he didn’t seem as effective throwing deep (there weren’t that many).

Further, the Patriots defensive line must be weary of Mahomes cadence, i.e. “hard count”. He was very successful at varying the pitch of his voice. On another note, Tyreek Hill is a threat every time he touches the ball. The Chiefs have designed many plays, both running and passing, to get him involved. He appears to be “a safety valve” on passing plays. Hill may well be the “fastest man” in the NFL. He’s very shifty. Kelce’s “a load”. He reminds me of “a younger Gronk.” Yards after the catch. A human bowling ball. Kelce carries defenders with him. Also, Damien Williams is an effective runner. Sammy Watkins can make unbelievable one-handed catches. Yet, I believe it all boils down to unnerving and stopping Mahomes. He’ll come into the game “cocky.” Some of “the starch” has to be taken out of him.

If there were a Chief’s weakness that became evident for the last few minutes of the First Half. They had a punt blocked. The Colts’ Bernard Cooke blew right past both Darrel Williams and Charcandrick West. The ball was recovered by Zach Pascal in the end zone for a touchdown.

The Colts would get the ball back with 1:40 left in the half. A no-huddle offense. This was the Andrew Luck-led offense that I had expected. Luck was sharp. He completed pass after pass against the Chiefs secondary. The Chiefs were back on their heels. It was, during this time, that it appeared as if the Colts had been given a transfusion. Yet, they simply ran out of time. They settled for a field goal that 23-year veteran Adam Vinatieri missed. It hit the left upright. In all fairness to the former Patriots kicker, his holder didn’t get the ball down and turn the laces, quickly enough. That was a possible 2nd half momentum killer. The Chiefs led 24-7 at the half. For all intents and purposes the game was over at the half, possibly even the first quarter.

I’ll be back later with my Second-Half analysis and the keys to a Patriots victory.

pandy
01-15-2019, 09:31 AM
The Patriots always try to take away the oppositions main weapon, but even if they double cover Hill, that still gives Mahomes plenty of options with Watkins, Kelce, Williams, and their other receivers that cycle in and out, who are good.

Teach
01-15-2019, 09:37 AM
Third Quarter (There was no scoring)

When it comes to the Colts, the stars must have not been aligned. Anything that could go wrong, went wrong. An unsportsmanlike conduct call. A fumble. And, a holding call that wasn’t a holding infraction (“Don’t let the refs beat me!”). The Colts, in the third quarter, started to show signs of enthusiasm. Revitalization. Yet, every time they started to get their act together, everything seemed to unravel. They just couldn’t keep the continuity. The Chiefs have a habit of self-destructing in the second half (that’s why if the Patriots can keep it close…) and they were doing just that, but the “snake-bitten” Colts couldn’t put it together. There were signs of brilliance, i.e., Leonard fumble recovery, but no capitalization. If only the Colts could have put up a better pass rush. Mahomes had Indy jumping offside. On one occasion, it negated a Colts interception. Mental toughness is so important. Look for the snap, not the cadence.

If anything, Mahomes showed he was not as effective throwing the deep ball. It’s possible that “the zone” contributed to that. The unsportsmanlike conduct in front of the ref by the Colts’ Denico Autry was sophomoric.

Frankly, by and large, the Colts were their own worst enemy. They showed signs of ability, even brilliance. Yet, they were, again, not cohesive. They were out of sync. This is something the Patriots cannot allow to happen. Purposefulness. Composure. They’re both “a must!”

Make no mistake, Mahomes can throw. That sidearm throw, like a first-baseman throwing around the runner who is headed to second. Impressive.

Further, the Chiefs’ Dee Ford is impressive; he caused the Luck fumble that led to a Chiefs recovery. He must be prevented from pressuring Tom Brady.

If I see a weakness, it may be in the Chiefs secondary. Andrew Luck was connecting with receiver after receiver; it was a shame he couldn’t have got going earlier. The Chiefs controlled the time of possession and the game in the First Half.

Finally, that holding call that negated a big Colts gain. Ridiculous. Ludicrous. The Chiefs defender was already on the ground. Officiating can be like a gnawing headache. You just don’t want it to turn into a migraine.

I'll be back with my Fourth Quarter thoughts.

ultracapper
01-15-2019, 12:39 PM
The like the Chiefs Sunday, the Patriots are the best team in the history of football when they're home at Foxboro, but they can be beaten on the road. They probably have a way of cheating in Gillette stadium. The whole thing with beating the Patriots is the coaching strategy. You have to have good schemes.

It amazes me how teams let the Patriots destroy them with 6 yard passes, when the Patriots don't have any speed threats down field. The Chargers defensive strategy, staying with their deep zone, was idiotic against the Patriots. I would double team Edelman and blitz often. You have to put some pressure on Brady and make them keep a back in for protection, otherwise he keeps throwing those short passes to the running backs.

Then Gronk will go 9 catches for 165 yards and 2 TDs.

The Patriots have plenty of weapons and can get it downfield, particularly if you're double teaming the guy that's running 5 yard slants.

ultracapper
01-15-2019, 12:43 PM
This will be a good game, and for me, one simply to watch and see, like one poster said, which coaching staff makes the better moves. I think this game will come down to which team executes it's game plan the best. I feel like they will both be very, very well prepared. It'll just come down to which team plays best.

Should be a really good game.

pandy
01-15-2019, 12:52 PM
Then Gronk will go 9 catches for 165 yards and 2 TDs.

The Patriots have plenty of weapons and can get it downfield, particularly if you're double teaming the guy that's running 5 yard slants.

Gronk looks pretty slow these days.

Teach
01-15-2019, 01:09 PM
Latest Weather Channel forecast for Sunday puts high temperature at - 1. That's right, minus 1. The evening lows could approach all-time record low for Kansas City of - 6 set back in 1935. Brrr.

ultracapper
01-15-2019, 02:11 PM
Gronk looks pretty slow these days.

You gotta think this might be it for him. The dings are piling up and really starting to show. But still, you give him a favorable match up, he could hurt you bad.

Teach
01-15-2019, 02:43 PM
Fourth Quarter

By this time, the horse has left the barn. Yet, what might have been. If the usually reliable Adam Vinatieri kicks a 23-yard field goal (off the left upright) and doesn’t miss a PAT (I believe he was 70-for-70 in the playoffs), the Colts are just one score behind. They would have had the impetus. But no, those things didn’t happen. It just wasn’t the Colts’ night. Luck was frequently under-throwing his receivers. Did he have trouble gripping the ball? What’s mystifying about all this was during the regular season the Colts converted on nearly 50% of their 3rd down tries; they were 0-for-8 against the Chiefs.

Another thorn in Luck’s side was Chiefs defensive lineman, 6-foot-6 inch, Chris Jones. He batted down several passes.

If there is a weakness, defensively, for the Chiefs, it may be in their secondary. If Charcandrick West is out there on special teams, i.e., punt protection, he can be “picked on”.

I felt the Chargers got the benefit of the refs calls and non-calls. There appeared to be a definite pass interference call as it relates to D.Y. Hilton that wasn’t called. There was also a roughing-the-kicker penalty against the Colts that should not have been called. Chiefs kicker, Dustin Colquitt, must use the Stanislavski method of acting. He was hardly touched.

On the offensive side, Damien Williams was “the show” in the second half. He was their “bread and butter” back. The Chiefs kept pounding him inside (that’s what the Patriots need to do with Sony Michel; establish the running game). Williams, by the way, ended up with about five-yards per carry on 25 carries. If the Chiefs can do that to the Patriots, it could spell trouble.

What I find astounding is that Chiefs gave up miles of yardage on both the ground and in the air throughout the regular season. Many of their games were shootouts. The Chiefs gave up an average of 26 first-downs per game to their opponents. The Chiefs were better at Arrowhead, but even so… The Chiefs would give up 31 first downs in losing to the Seattle Seahawks in mid-December. Porous!

On another matter, the Chiefs final score came on one of those “scrum runs". (Tangentially, the Rules Committee has to do something about this; it should be about the player’s own momentum, not his teammates pushing him across the goal line or a first-down marker. It’s more like rugby than it is about football. While I’m at it, a sound should be made throughout the stadium when the time to put the ball in-play clock reaches 0. Just like the 24-second buzzer in basketball. I’ve seen the refs let it go even though it was distinctly a delay of game).

Finally, as if to add an exclamation point to the Colts loss. The Colts Reece Fountain drops a eminently catchable ball in the end zone. Then, on the final play of the game, the Colts don’t get it off.

I’ll have my AFC championship-game analysis, later.

barahona44
01-15-2019, 06:07 PM
The Patriots rarely ever get their hats handed to them on those occasions when they do lose but two of the worst defeats the Bellichick-Brady Pats suffered were at the hands of the Chiefs.Those games were a bad regular season loss in KC about 4 years ago and opening night in 2017.KC barely lost to NE earlier this year on the road and the Super Bowl loss the Eagles had in 2004 came down to the last minute (as have ALL the Patriot Super Bowl games).In other words, Andy Reid is not intimidated by the three cornered hat helmet.

And as for the forecast,the Boston area very rarely gets that cold.That could also be a negative against the Pats.

jimmyb
01-15-2019, 07:01 PM
The Patriots always look to slow down an opponents best offensive weapon. It will be the same with KC. No small task beating the Chiefs at Arrowhead but if the Pats play with the same intensity they showed the Chargers, look out.


Lots of envious haters write the Pats off as a bunch of under achievers, old men, no star players, say the AFC East is weak, have to cheat to win. blah, blah, blah.



All the Patriots seem to do is show up in these championship games. Bet against at your peril.

Teach
01-15-2019, 07:46 PM
The Chiefs come “off the starting blocks,” quickly. They average about ten points in the first quarter; best in the NFL. The Patriots must be weary of that “early-lead” propensity. Every man “must do his job!” The Colts weren’t ready. They were totally ineffective in the first quarter. They suffered the consequences. In conclusion: If the Patriots have any chance of winning, it’s imperative that they stay close to the Chiefs in the early portion of game. Otherwise…

I believe the key is to put pressure on KC QB, Patrick Mahomes. How? Change up schemes. Odd-man rushes. Occasional blitzes. Change-up coverages. Put up different sets. Different coverage patterns. In other words, don’t, at all costs, become predictable. The Patriots have to keep the Chiefs guessing. Off balance.

The Patriots must put pressure on Mahomes (the Colts gave him all kinds of time to locate receivers). Mahommes cannot be allowed to “free-wheel” back there. He must be made to rush his throws. There are several KC players the Patriots must key on. Mahomes, obviously, is the key. He’s athletic. He’s talented. He’s brash. Unlike Philip Rivers, he's capable of running. Yet, he’s only played in one post-season game.

Others players are Tyreek Hill. He’s dangerous every time he touches the ball. He can return punts. He’s adept at flanker-reverses (student-body, left), and he can catch the football. Another threat is KC tight end, Travis Kelce. He’s a big target (a favorite of Mahomes). He’s quite capable of gaining yards after the catch.

Damien Williams is another threat. He’s a shifty back who was the KC star in the second half of the game against the Colts. If he runs the same way against the Patriots as he did against the Colts, it may be a long evening for the Patriots. He must be contained.

Sammy Watkins is an excellent receiver. He's capable of making outstanding catches.

On defense, the Patriots must keep an eye on left defensive end, Dee Ford. Very quick. He can prevent a back from getting to the line-of-scrimmage. He’s also an excellent pass-rusher. Another defensive player to watch is interior lineman, Chris Jones; he batted down or deflected several Andrew Luck passes.

In conclusion: I believe the key is get Mahomes out of his comfort zone. His rhythm. It will be no easy task.

Finally, the weather. I believe, subjectively, the frigid temps work in the Patriots favor. I believe it will slow down the game. I would have to believe the football will be both tough to throw and difficult to receive. Playing under the lights under those conditions can make it that much more difficult.

One final note: The Patriots must shut down the Chiefs offense. They must play the kind of game they played in their convincing win over the Chargers. Philip Rivers was pressured 70% of the time.

Next post will be the key players the Patriots will need to play at their best in order to win.

Suff
01-16-2019, 01:39 AM
The Patriots always look to slow down an opponents best offensive weapon.

Guessing the 0 degree temperature help the Patriots. Its going to stifle the crowd. I've been to Patriot home games when its been zero and nobody is hootin & hollerin, high 5'ing when its ZERO.

Last Patriots game I went to was just like that. 2 hours in bumper to bumper traffic to get in, parking a 1/4 mile away, and shivering for 2 hours and saying Never Again! And I meant it 5 years ago. Give me the Green Line to Kenmore, hop skip & a jump to Fenway!

If Brady beats Mahone in KC...all I can say is :faint: GOAT cake icing.

lamboguy
01-16-2019, 03:34 AM
Guessing the 0 degreille temperature help the Patriots. Its going to stifle the crowd. I've been to Patriot home games when its been zero and nobody is hootin & hollerin, high 5'ing when its ZERO.

Last Patriots game I went to was just like that. 2 hours in bumper t to o bumper traffic to get in, parking a 1/4 mile away, and shivering for 2 hours and saying Never Again! And I meant it 5 years ago. Give me the Green Line to Kenmore, hop skip & a jump to Fenway!

If Brady beats Mahone in KC...all I can snay is :faint: GOAT cake icing.the last time i went to a regular season Pats game was at Fenway Park. Babe Parilli was QB, Larry Garon was FB, Joe Bellino was the scat back, Gino Capaletti was the wing back and kicker.

Teach
01-16-2019, 09:51 AM
The New England Patriots must keep “the pocket clean.” They must protect Brady. The Patriots offensive line did an outstanding job protecting Brady in the recent playoff game against the Chargers. Bosa was a non-factor and Ingram only exerted pressure when the game was well out of hand. The Patriots must pay particular attention to #55 Dee Ford coming off the edge. He’s very quick. Chris Jones is a pass-blocking and deflecting force in the KC interior line.

But what about the Patriots, offensively. I believe they must establish the run. The offensive line must exert its dominance. The Chiefs were terrible as a rush-defense team. They averaged giving up over 132 yards on the ground to their opponents. If the Patriots can run up those numbers in Sunday night’s game, it’s off to Atlanta. Further, the Chiefs pass-defense is atrocious. They were 31st in the league. They allowed almost 275 years through the air per game. If there’s a weakness, the Chiefs secondary appears to be it. If Andrew Luck had put up a passing attack earlier, the complexion and possibly the outcome of the game would have been different.

Furthermore, if there’s an “Achilles Heel,” it may well be in KC’s special teams punting unit. The Colts’ Goode blocked one (watch the films) for a touchdown (Pascal recovered in the end zone). Goode was later flagged for a ridiculous roughing-the-kicker call on another block.

I would expect Andy Reid to put double-coverage on both Julian Edelman and James White (White had five receptions in that opening, time-consuming Patriots drive against the Chargers). That set the tone.

But where does that leave us? “Gronk”. He was targeted only once in the Chargers game. He made the catch and added after-the-catch yardage. It was like watching the hard-to-bring-down “old” Gronk. This may be his “last hurrah”. His “swan song.” His coda tune. Gee, Rob Gronkowski could make a huge difference in this game. Just being on the field and providing key blocks. Yet, I believe he’ll catch minimum attention, i.e., single coverage. “Gronk” can do serious damage if he were to catch four or five balls during the game. His involvement would certainly open up other receivers. As the techno-rock group, “Daft Punk,” sang: “One More Time!”

Yet, if Julian Edelman and James White are kept in check, who can “Tom Terrific” turn to? There may be some unlikely heroes. For example, Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett. I would add Rex Burkhead, James Develin and Coradelle Patterson.

Of course, we can expect Sony Michel to get the bulk of the carries. If Michel can have the same kind of a game (he got off to a slow start) that he did against the Chargers, it’s off to Mercedes-Benz (And, I ain’t talkin’ ‘bout Janis Joplin).
Then, there’s the defense. Every man “must do his job!” Names like Dont’a Hightower, Trey Flowers, Kyle Van Noy, Lawrence Guy, Marcus Cannon, Stephon Gilmore, the McCourty twins, Patrick Chung, etc.

Finally, Stephen Gostkowski, in addition to hitting his field goals, must keep the ball out of the hands of Tyreek Hill. That goes for Ryan Allen, as well.

Finally, if the Patriots win, Bill Belichick will win his 9th conference championship as a head coach. The most in Super Bowl history. That’s quite a legacy. In the same vein, Tom Brady, if the Patriots win, will have won his 9th conference title as a starting quarterback; the most in NFL history.

Teach
01-17-2019, 11:44 AM
Final Thoughts

The Weather: Three days till kickoff. Recent forecasts have mitigated the outlook for extreme cold. Cold, but not arctic cold. Now, KC forecasters are talking about highs in the mid-20s, with overnight lows in the upper-teens. Yet the real-feel temp could be in the mid-teens.

For what it’s worth, I took my morning “constitution,” a half-hour walk. The temperatures here west of Boston were comparable to what they will likely be like at Arrowhead Stadium around game-time - upper-teens. Any exposed flesh – I have no ski-mask – is going to make your face feel it. Any wind makes it feel even worse. I found myself clenching my fists inside my gloves. When I got back to my house, my face was beet-red. Also, it’s much more difficult to walk in these conditions – granted I’m in my mid-70s - yet, I felt like “The Tin Man” in “The Wizard of Oz”. My legs felt like they were shackled. By the way, in December, 2016 the Chiefs lost to the Titans on a last-second field goal. The temperature that day: 1 degree.

The Arrowhead Stadium field: That is the “X” factor. The Unknown. What do we know? There is the possibility of 4 to 8 inches of snow in the metro KC area by noon on Saturday. It’s certainly not going to melt. The only place it will be melting is on the field at Arrowhead Stadium. As someone said, “The warmest place at Arrowhead Stadium may well be the field.” The underground pipes (reminds me of the Roman baths) can be set to a temperature of 60 degrees (I believe the minimum is 40 degrees). But what will the field look like? Will it be slippery? Will it become a bog? Will it become a quagmire? Under the heading of “conspiracy theory”: “Can the Chiefs call down to those who are operating the underground pipes and change the playing-field conditions during the game, or at halftime. The League cannot control that, only the Chiefs. If this sounds strange, some were complaining about how the Minnesota Twins were using the air-conditioning system to affect fly balls. Maybe that was a ploy, maybe not.

Shoes: Cleats, etc., call them what you will, are going to be extremely important. They must provide optimal traction. The Patriots equipment manager may feel he’s running a shoe store. I believe it would behoove the Patriots to get someone on the field sometime Sunday afternoon to assess field conditions. Earlier reports would be helpful. With an underground heating system, you can turn the tundra into a cranberry bog. With the heat of the pipes there will be condensation. Melting. Yet, with the heat coming from below, it probably won’t refreeze. Just get slushy if enough residual snow is on the field.

Patrick Mahomes: He is the key. He can’t be allowed to get comfortable back there (The Colts allowed him to do just that). The Patriots have to put doubts in his mind. Different stunts. Different sets. Never predictable! An occasional blitz. He must be “encouraged” to take risks.

Sony Michel: If Sony Michel can run the way he did against the Chargers: “Game, set, match!” He’s a major factor in controlling the ball and the clock. The offensive line must, through their blocking schemes, provide “lanes,” preferably one that a Mack Truck could fit through. Of course, there’s “Jules” and James White.

“Gronk”: He does an excellent job blocking. If he can add some “icing” (no pun intended) to the cake by catching four or five passes, that would open up, everything. In that case, whom do the Chiefs cover?

“Unsung Heroes”: There are a handful of names. Wide receivers Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett can make a big difference. If they can get open and make some catches, that would put even more pressure on the Chiefs secondary. Yet, I’ll put out two names, one on offense and one on defense, that could make a huge difference for the Patriots. First, Rex Burkhead, “The Winchester Rifle,” is a North-South runner. He hits the line hard. He’s capable of carrying tacklers with him. “The Cornhusker” is a punishing runner. He could make a big difference. On the opposite side of the ball, the up-and-coming CB, J.C. Jackson. Bill Belichick calls Jackson, “a steady grinder”. He’s shown improvement throughout the season. He has three interceptions. And then, there’s Cordarrelle Patterson. He’s quick. He can be a factor on “gadget” plays and returns.

If there’s a Chief’s weakness…: It’s in “their kicking game,” more specifically the “punting game,” i.e., punt protection. The Colts demonstrated that. It resulted in an Indy touchdown. The Chiefs may change up personnel; yet, if they have an “Achilles Heel,” their punt protection may well be it!

Constructive Comment: Who am I, a guy who was better at chess than football, to suggest a comment to a future Hall-of-Famer? I’ve noticed recently that Tom Brady, although well-intentioned, has frittered away two scoring chances, i.e., field goals just before the half. In one case, Brady was sacked before “he could throw the ball away.” Time ran out. Field-goal range. No attempt. More recently, he threw to a receiver near the sideline who got out of bounds, but the clock kept running. Unlikely circumstance, but another missed opportunity for a field goal. I feel that unless you’re 100% sure you can stop the clock, throw it away. “A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush”. You can only take what you know the game will give you. Sometimes, missed opportunities come back to haunt you.

Teach
01-17-2019, 05:35 PM
Two Words: "Slot Blitz". The Chiefs had trouble picking it up. #20 Charcandrick West is a liability.

Teach
01-18-2019, 09:29 AM
Mercedes-Benz

“Oh lord, wont you buy me a mercedes benz?
My friends all drive porsches, I must make amends.
Worked hard all my lifetime, no help from my friends,
So lord, wont you buy me a mercedes benz?”

- Janis Joplin

“Everything’s up to date in Kansas City…” Or, is it? Many imponderables.
Who, from the AFC, is going to Mercedes-Benz in Atlanta for the Super Bowl?: The Patriots or the Chiefs? The AFC Championship game is this Sunday at 6:40 p.m. at Arrowhead.

The Chiefs are favored by 3 points over the Patriots. When was the last time that happened? This is the first time in 68 games that a Tom Brady-led Patriots team has been cast as the underdog. The over-under is currently 56 points.

The weather forecasts have changed. I personally don’t see the weather, i.e., cold weather, as that much of a factor as I had previously thought. It now appears that tomorrow, Saturday, is the “cold-weather” day/evening. Sunday should be warmer, upper 20s, and less blustery. Oh, it’ll be cold, but certainly not nearly as cold as it would have been had the game been played Saturday evening.

I would be the last one to tout you on whom to bet. In fact, if I picked someone, I’d encourage you to bet the other team. Yet, the over-under number still intrigues me. I believe a lot will be determined by the condition of the playing surface. That won’t be known until Sunday. There’s certain to be snow from the previous day. In the Chiefs vs. Colts game, the previous snow was negligible on the playing surface. In that game, both teams seemed to have good traction.

As I see it, one of Patriots' main advantages is their coaching staff. Patriots head coach, Bill Belichick, now in his 20th season as Patriots mentor, is a “master” at seeking out and exploiting opposing teams’ weakness. He is ably assisted by a host of assistants, e.g., Josh McDaniels, Brian Flores, Dante Scarnecchia, etc. This isn’t to say that Chiefs coach, Andy Reid, is any slouch. It’s just that Bill Belichick well…is Bill Belichick.

I would see one of the main goals of both teams to be the task of confusing the opposing quarterback. I’m sure much preparation has taken place on both sides to try to accomplish that goal and also to avoid it.

I believe the first quarter is critical. The Chiefs are fast-starters. If this were a thoroughbred race, the Chiefs would get the track announcer’s first call. It is important that the Patriots stay with them. They cannot afford to play come-from-behind football. In that case, the Chiefs will do what they did to the Colts in the 2nd half. Damien Williams…Damien Williams…Damien Williams. Pound…pound...pound. That ground-approach would chew up the clock. It would keep the Patriots offense off the field.

In conclusion, I’m looking forward to this game with great anticipation. I’m curious as to the strategy and tactics that both coaches employ.

No, I wasn’t a football player, but I certainly enjoyed a good chess match.

ultracapper
01-18-2019, 11:36 AM
I'd pay money to sit and watch this game with you.

Interesting stat I saw on ESPN a night or two ago. Mahomes' completion percentage to "wide open" receivers, meaning receivers with x yards of separation (Can't remember what x equaled. 3 maybe) was highest in the NFL. Patriots secondary allowed the lowest amount of receptions to "wide open" receivers in the league. Their secondary is a blanket.

Chiefs will show a lot of motion pre-snap. Patriots need to make sure their coverage is organized. Keeping Mahomes stationary will be a difficult task, but necessary. If he is allowed to extend plays and let all that speed they have work downfield, he can chew up anybody.

68 games since they were a 'dog? Was that the Seattle SB then?

Nitro
01-18-2019, 12:58 PM
Of the 2 playoff games this weekend I think this is the tougher one to nail down.

Based on momentum, routing the Chargers (who beat KC at home previously), and having already beaten KC, I’m going with the Patriots to win outright and getting the points.
I also like the over 57 here.

ultracapper
01-18-2019, 01:21 PM
Who do you like in the other? Whatever the overs are, I'll take them. NO has a very good D, but the Rams can really fill in the blanks on the scoreboard.

Nitro
01-18-2019, 02:49 PM
Who do you like in the other? Whatever the overs are, I'll take them. NO has a very good D, but the Rams can really fill in the blanks on the scoreboard.
Of the 2 playoff games this weekend I think this one is a bit more straight forward.

Based on momentum, routing the Cowboys (who beat NO previously) with a revised defense and improved running game, and having already played NO at home twice this season (Includes a Pre-season game) I’m going with the RAMS to win outright and getting the points. I don’t think the home crowd will have as much of an impact.
I also like the over 57 here.

Note: Should KC win the early game I’ll be rooting for NO because I wouldn’t be interested in another shootout like what the RAMS & KC had earlier this year. I wouldn’t mind seeing a Patriots/Saints Superbowl either.

barahona44
01-18-2019, 02:53 PM
Final Thoughts



If there’s a Chief’s weakness…: It’s in “their kicking game,” more specifically the “punting game,” i.e., punt protection. The Colts demonstrated that. It resulted in an Indy touchdown. The Chiefs may change up personnel; yet, if they have an “Achilles Heel,” their punt protection may well be it!


That blocked punt was the first time that has happened to the Chiefs in 5 years. That's was a blown block;the Colt who blocked the punt ran in untouched.

Teach
01-18-2019, 04:38 PM
Latest precipitation forecast coming out of Kansas City indicates rain changing to mixed precipitation late this afternoon or in the evening, followed by snow. The estimates are 1 to 4 inches. No blockbuster storm. More in the realm of a frontal passage. High temps on Sunday are pegged in the upper-20s. Winds will be blustery during the day, but they will be subsiding by game-time. The real-feel temperature could be in the upper-teens.


The condition of the field is critical. The Chiefs need a fast track. We'll know Sunday. I'd counsel waiting as long as possible before wagering a bob or two.


I'm going to offer my pick and score. Please don't follow me, I haven't done well in sports betting endeavors. Yet, here goes: New England Patriots, 20, Kansas City Chiefs, 13.

summersquall
01-18-2019, 05:35 PM
Patriots record on the road is mediocre this year. Last four AFC title games played away from home they are 1-3, including three consecutive losses dating back to the 2006 season. Temperature at kickoff in the mid-teens expected so turnovers and mental mistakes might be more prevalent than during the regular season.

ultracapper
01-18-2019, 05:50 PM
13 points for the Chiefs? Whew. I'd think they could do that on an ice rink in their underwear. I think the Pats will need a few more than 20, and I think they'll get more than 20. Whether they'll get enough to win, I'm not guessing one way or the other. But I think both teams will, if the field is to NFL standards, all things considered, play their "game".

Teach
01-18-2019, 07:35 PM
I'm thinking the field may be "tricky". I'm predicating my point-totals based on what I see as less than ideal Arrowhead surface conditions. If the field turns out to be in better shape than I believe it will, I'd revise my pick. I'll stick with what I have. There was loose sod in the Baltimore game.

jimmyb
01-18-2019, 08:12 PM
Patriot playoff record away from Gillette in the BB era is 3-4. Average Patriot score is 24 points. Average opponents score is 25 points. O/U I'm putting at 50 points. Patriots +3

thaskalos
01-18-2019, 08:14 PM
NE... 6
KC...17

Nitro
01-18-2019, 08:30 PM
NE... 6
KC...17What is that? A 1st quarter score? LOL

I think that cold weather or not the final score should be around:
NE-35 / KC-31

thaskalos
01-18-2019, 09:05 PM
What is that? A 1st quarter score? LOL

I think that cold weather or not the final score should be around:
NE-35 / KC-31

Okay then...I bow to your expertise. :headbanger:

Suff
01-18-2019, 09:48 PM
41-39 Brady.

Nitro
01-18-2019, 11:48 PM
Okay then...I bow to your expertise. :headbanger:
It's a bit premature for that comment. Don't ya think?
Your score prediction I assume was based on the weather conditions. From what they're saying now its certainly going to be cold, but precipitation shouldn't be a big issue.

BTW I've been known to occasionally come up with some real clunkers, but after going 4 and 0 last weekend I've been feeling dangerously lucky so far!

pandy
01-19-2019, 09:45 AM
The latest I heard is 30 degrees and mostly cloudy at kickoff, pretty normal football weather, hard to believe that will be a factor. Maybe a bigger factor could be the new sod they installed this week.

Teach
01-19-2019, 10:49 AM
Re-sodding is an issue. This isn't like replacing divots on a golf course. There could be loose sod. That's why I would caution that before wagering on this AFC Championship game, you find out - through reporters, sportscasters - what the condition of the field is. Normally, sod take two to three weeks to grow. This is a major factor!

Teach
01-19-2019, 12:13 PM
Could the Chiefs be "hoisted by their own petard?" What's the motivation for the re-sodding? A fast-track for Tyreek Hill?

I don't get it. I'm assuming the Chiefs grounds crew dug up the old turf and trucked in tons of "rug sod" to replace it. But what's holding that sod in place? The underlayment. Under the best of conditions - in the summer - it takes two to three weeks for adherence. There's no stability. It can be like an area rug over a slick oak flooring with no padding underneath.

The players could be slippin' and slidin' like they're on glare ice. The field could, by the 2nd Half, look like the tee-box on the "Island Hole" at Sawgrass during the final round.

That's why, in my opinion, I wouldn't rush to get my bet in. I'd wait until a few minutes before the kickoff. If I'm the Patriots, I'd have several choices of footwear. Both teams might have to change cleats at halftime.

Finally, I believe that if a team is going to win, they have to get ahead, early! I sense that playing from behind will be difficult. Just ask the Colts...and that field was in decent shape.

Oh, one last thought: What impact will the Roman bath, i.e., underground heating system, have on the field? So many imponderables. I'm still sticking with Patriots 20, Chiefs, 13. That prediction is based on a field that may wreak havoc.

Teach
01-20-2019, 11:13 AM
About 7 and 1/2 hours to go to the Patriots vs. Chiefs. Gee, I wish I knew what Arrowhead looked like. The field, that is. No stadium cams. I still can't believe they put down all that new sod (I believe they call them "plugs" (grass carpets"). Bermuda grass is better suited for southern climes. Marginal at the latitude of KC. Will it be slippery? This is a factor that anyone wagering on the game must take into consideration.

Further, I believe one of the keys for the Patriots is stopping Damien Williams. Make the Chiefs go to the air. Another factor is how much of a contribution can "Gronk" make? He's an excellent blocker, but if he were to catch four or five passes, that would be huge.

I tell ya, I can't wait. Oh, by the way, one last thought. Important. There are snow flurries nearby that are heading southeast toward Kansas City (current temp: 14 degrees). What impact, although limited, will those snowflakes (they could be melted by the underground heating) have on the field of play?

ultracapper
01-20-2019, 09:07 PM
The GMC "Na-Na-Na" commercial has gotta go.


Goodbye

thaskalos
01-20-2019, 09:22 PM
"Roughing the passer"? :lol::ThmbDown:

jay68802
01-20-2019, 09:28 PM
"Roughing the passer"? :lol::ThmbDown:

Game play here.

jay68802
01-20-2019, 09:30 PM
3:32 left, Mahomes needs to show the magic now.

jocko699
01-20-2019, 09:34 PM
Really enjoyed this game
:ThmbUp:

jocko699
01-20-2019, 09:52 PM
Wow, just wow!!!!

jay68802
01-20-2019, 10:16 PM
:ThmbUp:

Good game.

sammy the sage
01-20-2019, 10:19 PM
college football overtime so far superior to pro...pretty good 2nd half of entertainment...

Nitro
01-20-2019, 10:23 PM
What is that? A 1st quarter score? LOL

I think that cold weather or not the final score should be around:
NE-35 / KC-31

Okay I'll take it!

Should be a really good Super Bowl.

thaskalos
01-20-2019, 10:24 PM
Has anybody gotten a good look at Brady's birth certificate?

ReplayRandall
01-20-2019, 10:26 PM
Has anybody gotten a good look at Brady's birth certificate?
Kenyan....

thaskalos
01-20-2019, 10:27 PM
What is that? A 1st quarter score? LOL

I think that cold weather or not the final score should be around:
NE-35 / KC-31

My hat is off to you. That was as good as a prediction can get. :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

ultracapper
01-20-2019, 10:37 PM
"Roughing the passer"? :lol::ThmbDown:

Refs could have done a lot better job. a couple of those calls on the outside were a little wussy.

burnsy
01-21-2019, 09:41 AM
Both games had a few bad calls. Roughing the passer? People talk about Brady, he really didn’t have a great game. Offsides saved him from his 3 rd pic. The one in the end zone was a real boner. The reason I bet the Pats was their offensive line. When they man handled the Chargers , I knew they were on to something. The Chiefs defense got pushed around for 4 quarters. That was the ball game. They couldn’t stop the Pats run . The tv goons talk about the obvious players. The lines win the games. I based both of my bets on the lines of the teams. Both under dogs had the “line advantage “. The Rams in defense and the Pats on offense. They will go on and on about Brady , Goff, Gurley and Gronk. The SB will come down to the Rams defensive line vs the Pats offensive line. Strength vs Strength baby

Burls
01-21-2019, 12:14 PM
Oh I hate those Patriots!
But ya gotta admit, they play in some VERY EXCITING football games.
What more can you ask for in a ]Playoff Game.

jay68802
01-21-2019, 12:24 PM
I really have not watched that many NFL games this year. Picked a good day to hang out with my father and watch. I think Brady now has been to the Super Bowl 9 of 18 years. Amazing.

ultracapper
01-21-2019, 12:37 PM
The Pats weakness on the outside was really evident last night. It's really amazing how they are able to score the way they do considering that.

Nitro
01-21-2019, 12:50 PM
Some afterthoughts:
A few of my friends thought I was nuts going with the Patriots. They’re feelings were based primarily on the Chiefs record at home versus the Patriots record in away games. Yes, the Chiefs had a very good record at home, but did anyone take notice of which quarterbacks they actually beat in each of those home wins? And then they face a good QB like Rivers and lose (at home).

So, having already beaten the Chiefs during the regular season, and then putting on a show while demoralizing the Chargers, I thought the Patriots (and the over) were a pretty good bet.

The Super bowl presents some interesting team comparisons. One thing I’ll be looking at is how each team came out of their playoff victory.

jimmyb
01-21-2019, 02:49 PM
Refs could have done a lot better job. a couple of those calls on the outside were a little wussy.
Chiefs lost the game with a poor first half. Not the refs fault.

ultracapper
01-21-2019, 04:53 PM
Chiefs lost the game with a poor first half. Not the refs fault.

Heck, I was referring to at least one of the PI calls against the Patriots when I said wussy. I agree, Patriots beat them. Chiefs just weren't quite good enough yesterday. Patriots are as clutch as they come.

mountainman
01-21-2019, 07:45 PM
So now it's a fait accompli , as all those jealous of Brady's dream life and surreal success have managed to brand him a 'system' quarterback ? How ridiculous and unfair.

And any minute now that old myth will start to recirculate about how Tom Brady can't survive being hit. Just as evvvvvvrry year the Patriot defense 'stinks.'

Never EVER have an athlete and team received so little credit for doing so much.

And that's from a passionate Steeler fan who DESPISES all things New England.

ultracapper
01-21-2019, 08:43 PM
Seahawks should have beat them. Falcons should have beat them. Patriots should have beat the Eagles.

Who knows what'll happen in a couple weeks.