Follow the [horses] Trainer

[John]

Follow the [ Horses ] trainer.

The other day Todd Pletcher had 5 winners in one day,Next day Three winners. Next day two winners.

My question is: Can a player follow a trainer or a list of trainers and show a profit over time. It does not seem possible were the best trainers only average 20%[ 2 wins out of ten. ] Yet, a trainer like John Ragattieri at Suffolk Downs has 26% wins with an average payoff of $6.47.

Has anyone with a data base done any research on this.

Thanks

[CapperLou]

Hi John:

There are ways to follow trainers--many ways!!! One source that has a huge amount of trainer info and stats is Bob Selvin's Turfday. Yesterday I played a horse on the turf at Bay Meadows trained by Paulo H Lobo because he is a high % trainer with turf horses with a good average mutuel. King Simpatia(BRZ) in 3rd there paid 23.00.

Bob put out a thread about high percentage trainers with good mutuels etc a few months ago thereabouts.

I follow trainers but have done it all by hand for years--that's because I do not know how to use MS Access.

You might also want to contact Jim Mazur at Progressive Handicapping on the net. He does detailed stats of particular meetings which I started using recently and have found helpful.

Then there is hurricane@htr on this board. To my knowledge, he has some of the best stuff on trainer patterns and he uses the large database (Access) with htr. I believe he does rather well!!!!!

Hope this gives you a start & good luck!!! Yes--you can do very well following trainers if you know WHEN to play them.

All the best,

CapperLou

[John]

capper;ou. Good stuff. A lot of trainer info.in your post.

BUT....I relize that some trainers are a little fish in a big pond.When that trainer gets to a smaller pond he becomes a big fish. Also trainers like Clemente and Shepard do very well on Turf.

What I want to know is,lets say I pick D. Wayne Lukas and follow his monts all over the country, Could I show a profit over time playing all or some of his horses.I thought someone may have stats on this.

[sjk]

John,

A look at this indicates that although there are trainers who's horses show a positive ROI each year, the same trainers do not tend to repeat year after year.

Looks to me like a normally distributed statistic. Just like if you got together a large group of monkeys flipping coins some would have an unusually large number of heads each year but the same monkeys would not tend to repeat.

Hope the trainers out there are not offended by the monkey analogy.

[CryingForTheHorses]

Originally posted by John
capper;ou. Good stuff. A lot of trainer info.in your post.

BUT....I relize that some trainers are a little fish in a big pond.When that trainer gets to a smaller pond he becomes a big fish. Also trainers like Clemente and Shepard do very well on Turf.

What I want to know is,lets say I pick D. Wayne Lukas and follow his monts all over the country, Could I show a profit over time playing all or some of his horses.I thought someone may have stats on this.
You ask a good question,But I may squawsh your theory of being able to bet on a big trainer's stables all over America.First and foremost..A trainer cannot be everywhere at once,A lot is depended on the asst's and their horsemanship. A big trainer is only as good as his horse's.Also a lot is demanded on other asst's of the trainer to keep up the winning ways, If instructions by the trainer arent followed in other area's,Horses that should win wont!.

[cj]

I think the value in betting trainers is in the short term trends, not the long ones that can be run through a database of 2,000,000 races.

[CapperLou]

You are absolutely right!!!!

One has to look at overall stats and then "catch the short term trend."

For example; will the guys who usually do well when Hawthorne opens repeat again this year???

Tammaro, Block, Vanier, Robertson to mention a few!!!! Mr T went wild the first few weeks of HAW last year.

Do you remember the hot streak Henry Collazo had at CRC last year---what happened this year?

Henry is all of a sudden starting to win a few races. The list goes on---you can know things about them and you have to "catch" the pattern once it starts. It's not easy to say the least!

All the best,

CapperLou

P.S. Where is Karlskorner? He has not posted since June--if I knew him I would look for him at CRC!!!

[John]

Cj and all the rest of you.I apprecate your comments.

Here is what I am saying.....If a trainer does very well at Aqueduct. Does fair at Belmont. not good at Saratoga. Should I exspect him to do well at Aqueduct again. I think so and should be taking a long look at his horses. It seems that the same trainers dominate at the same tracks at the same time of each year. Just my opinion

Winmanwin, Am I right or am I right.

[andicap]

John,
not necessarily. If so then Jim Mazur would be rich and so would his readers.

I agree with riding trainers short-term trends.
I would get to know what they are good at over the long-term and wait until they start showing success in those areas in the short-term and then hop aboard.

I would also log which trainers are losing with low-priced horses (under 9-5 depending on field size) at particular meets to see who is being overbet.

I try and note every layoff horse that loses under 4-1 to see if a pattern develops. Same thing with shippers.

I also keep track of horses winning at $15 or more for layoffs, shippers to see who's being underbet in those areas recently.

[sjk]

John,

I looked at your latest hypothesis and once again the data would indicate that you cannot count on a positive ROI repeating from year to year.

Looking at a group of trainers who started 50 or more at a track in a given year about 1700 of the 6800 show a positive ROI for the year at that track.

Only 400 or so of those 1700 generated a positive ROI in the following year at that track and the group of 1700 had a combined ROI of -19% compared with a combined ROI of -22% for the other 5100 (which produced a negative ROI in year 1).

[John]

SJK and ANDICAP

Good information.

I guess the bottom line is a trainer is good if his horses are running good and that can be anytime,anywhere.

Thanks Guys

[samurai]

It is helpful to note which trainers don't have the stock to win at the showcase meets such as SAR or DMR or even some of the more competitive meets such as BEL "Fall Champion". Look at Jen Pederson who cleans up at the Aqu meet but is nowhere to be found when the top outfits have their stock primed. A blind bet on all her starters won't be profitable but knowing that she can compete at a certain meet helps in the handicapping process. Also note when a top oufit doesn't try with a class horse making a start in the spring off a layoff, these vulnerable favorites occur every year. This same period will have lesser name trainers win with first timers vs the "Pletcher's and such". It is important to note that if you don't keep your own stats and rely on the ones provided by BRIS etc, you will see stats skewed. For instance, if you are handicapping the Bel spring meet, you will see first time MSW starters ~20% for both Pletcher and Pedersen, but the edge definitely belongs to Pletcher.

Also as the weather starts getting colder the top outfits ship out of NY leaving their second stringers behind. The trainer name on the past performances will still show Pletcher etc. so they will be overbet allowing the lesser name trainer to win.

[Niko]

I'd also have to vote for short term trends. I bought Jim Bayle's trainer stats many years ago when he made them available. Didn't make any bets but watched the data from year to year. It always changed. Probably because there's so many factors that go into training horses. A trainer could be 25% with 30 starters returning in 31-60 days and be 15% the next year in the same category. Nothing much held up except for a few high percentage trainers but everyone catches on to those.
Jim Bayle's trainer stats are another good example. He only looks for trainers who have won with 4 or more horses at a 30% or higher clip in any category from the horses first 4 races off
lay-offs and claims. The actual forward win percentage for these trainers in the 30% plus categories is 21-22%.
Not that you can't make money off trainer stats or that they aren't helpful, but you have to be careful with them.