PDA

View Full Version : 20c pick 6


ronsmac
12-26-2018, 02:16 PM
Peter Lurie just said those who are complaining about the 20c pick 6 at santa anita and prefer the $2 pick 6, just play the 20c pick 6 for 2 dollars. I'm dumbfounded. He just showed a total lack of understanding of how the pick 6 works.

thaskalos
12-26-2018, 02:42 PM
Peter Lurie just said those who are complaining about the 20c pick 6 at santa anita and prefer the $2 pick 6, just play the 20c pick 6 for 2 dollars. I'm dumbfounded. He just showed a total lack of understanding of how the pick 6 works.

And this surprised you? I am surprised when Peter Lurie gets something RIGHT.

dilanesp
12-26-2018, 03:58 PM
Well, one COULD weight combinations. Some combinations probably should be played for $2 and others for 20 cents.

ronsmac
12-26-2018, 04:22 PM
Well, one COULD weight combinations. Some combinations probably should be played for $2 and others for 20 cents.Then you won't ever have a single ticket which is the real reason for playing the 20c p6 in the first place unless it's mandatory payout day. You're playing into a huge takeout if you're not the single ticket.

thaskalos
12-26-2018, 04:24 PM
Then you won't ever have a single ticket which is the real reason for playing the 20c p6 in the first place unless it's mandatory payout day. You're playing into a huge takeout if you're not the single ticket.

Shhhh...don't tell him. Let him keep playing it for multiple tickets. :)

Tom
12-26-2018, 05:10 PM
Peter Lurie was much better in those old Boris Karloff movies than he is at the track.

the little guy
12-26-2018, 06:19 PM
Peter Lurie was much better in those old Boris Karloff movies than he is at the track.

You're getting your genre's mixed up, Tom. He was very good in The Maltese Falcon and Casablanca.

ronsmac
12-26-2018, 06:35 PM
Peter Lurie was much better in those old Boris Karloff movies than he is at the track.
I liked him as Mr. Moto.

Afleet
12-26-2018, 06:51 PM
Peter Lurie just said those who are complaining about the 20c pick 6 at santa anita and prefer the $2 pick 6, just play the 20c pick 6 for 2 dollars. I'm dumbfounded. He just showed a total lack of understanding of how the pick 6 works.

that is unbelievable:bang:

HalvOnHorseracing
12-26-2018, 09:35 PM
You're getting your genre's mixed up, Tom. He was very good in The Maltese Falcon and Casablanca.

Lorre was also on the original movie of "Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea, where he played Commodore Emery." Voyage also starred Walter Pidgeon, who I didn't like because he was ready to blast "Big Red" into pieces.

dilanesp
12-26-2018, 10:30 PM
Then you won't ever have a single ticket which is the real reason for playing the 20c p6 in the first place unless it's mandatory payout day. You're playing into a huge takeout if you're not the single ticket.

Well, is your strategy to ONLY play combinations that are likely to result in a single ticket jackpot?

Because if you are playing any other combinations, you should weight them.

Suff
12-27-2018, 01:18 AM
I heard Ron Paolucci tell Andy about hitting the .20 cent pick 6 at Churchill for a half a million. I was curious enough to go take a look at the results. I could not believe only 1 ticket had these horses at these prices....

I recall thinking that the .20 cent pick 6 was more like Keno than I orginally thought. More players should have had this and normally would ....even for $2.00

------------------
Paolucci's ticket, which cost $1,764, correctly picked the winners of Races 3-8 Thursday: Race 3, Misspent Youth, $13; Race 4, My Perfect Graydar, $8.40; Race 5, Clever Serve, $12.60; Race 6, Strike Silver, $5.80; Race 7, Bonnie Arch, $11.20; and Race 8 Mucho Mas Grande, $25.

https://www.paulickreport.com/horseplayers-category/paolucci-hits-churchills-single-6-jackpot-for-549774/

ZippyChippy423
12-27-2018, 05:46 AM
I heard Ron Paolucci tell Andy about hitting the .20 cent pick 6 at Churchill for a half a million. I was curious enough to go take a look at the results. I could not believe only 1 ticket had these horses at these prices....

I recall thinking that the .20 cent pick 6 was more like Keno than I orginally thought. More players should have had this and normally would ....even for $2.00

------------------
Paolucci's ticket, which cost $1,764, correctly picked the winners of Races 3-8 Thursday: Race 3, Misspent Youth, $13; Race 4, My Perfect Graydar, $8.40; Race 5, Clever Serve, $12.60; Race 6, Strike Silver, $5.80; Race 7, Bonnie Arch, $11.20; and Race 8 Mucho Mas Grande, $25.

https://www.paulickreport.com/horseplayers-category/paolucci-hits-churchills-single-6-jackpot-for-549774/

That’s the oddity of any of these 20 cent pick 6 wagers. You don’t need to catch all bombs to win. The only way Peter Lorre would have made sense with his exclamation was if the pick 6 was a force out.

castaway01
12-27-2018, 08:37 AM
Well, is your strategy to ONLY play combinations that are likely to result in a single ticket jackpot?

Because if you are playing any other combinations, you should weight them.

Well, if you're playing into a bet with 40% takeout, that would be the only LOGICAL strategy, except you can't psychically know you're the only person betting that ticket. But if you're betting any combination that you think could possibly be the only ticket if it hit, you'd be a fool to bet it twice.

dilanesp
12-27-2018, 11:33 AM
I heard Ron Paolucci tell Andy about hitting the .20 cent pick 6 at Churchill for a half a million. I was curious enough to go take a look at the results. I could not believe only 1 ticket had these horses at these prices....

I recall thinking that the .20 cent pick 6 was more like Keno than I orginally thought. More players should have had this and normally would ....even for $2.00

------------------
Paolucci's ticket, which cost $1,764, correctly picked the winners of Races 3-8 Thursday: Race 3, Misspent Youth, $13; Race 4, My Perfect Graydar, $8.40; Race 5, Clever Serve, $12.60; Race 6, Strike Silver, $5.80; Race 7, Bonnie Arch, $11.20; and Race 8 Mucho Mas Grande, $25.

https://www.paulickreport.com/horseplayers-category/paolucci-hits-churchills-single-6-jackpot-for-549774/

You can't analyze a multi-horse wager by just looking at the payoffs.

A horse could pay $9 and be on very few tickets, if there's a 2 to 5 favorite in the race. In the next race, a horse could pay $17 and be on numerous tickets, because the race is a grab bag with several contenders.

Suff
12-27-2018, 09:26 PM
You can't analyze a multi-horse wager by just looking at the payoffs.

A horse could pay $9 and be on very few tickets, if there's a 2 to 5 favorite in the race. In the next race, a horse could pay $17 and be on numerous tickets, because the race is a grab bag with several contenders.

Good point. I looked at the charts. (http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=CD&raceDate=06/14/2018&cy=USA) He did beat a couple of $1.00 horses, but all in all, these were competitive races with many evenly bet logical contenders. He threaded the needle well.


Today at Gulfstream.


$0.20 PICK SIX-$288,350.74


Also, Pik 3, races 4, 5 & 6
$2 PICK THREE 1/4/8 $42,442.20

Cholly
12-28-2018, 11:37 AM
Today at Gulfstream.

$0.20 PICK SIX-$288,350.74

May never know if this bettor had tickets other than the $9.60 ticket that took down the pool, but that ticket was a lesson in how to spend less than $10 and take a shot.

He/she stuck to favorites in 3 of the legs: an odds-on single, and used the 2 and 3 lowest priced horses in the other two legs. In the other 3 legs, he was bar-belled, using the favorite and a long shot. All three of the long shots won.

dilanesp
12-28-2018, 03:20 PM
May never know if this bettor had tickets other than the $9.60 ticket that took down the pool, but that ticket was a lesson in how to spend less than $10 and take a shot.

He/she stuck to favorites in 3 of the legs: an odds-on single, and used the 2 and 3 lowest priced horses in the other two legs. In the other 3 legs, he was bar-belled, using the favorite and a long shot. All three of the long shots won.

Absolutely!

Suff
12-29-2018, 09:21 PM
May never know if this bettor had tickets other than the $9.60 ticket that took down the pool, but that ticket was a lesson in how to spend less than $10 and take a shot.

He/she stuck to favorites in 3 of the legs: an odds-on single, and used the 2 and 3 lowest priced horses in the other two legs. In the other 3 legs, he was bar-belled, using the favorite and a long shot. All three of the long shots won.

I've been meaning to ask. How do you have insight into what the winning ticket cost and the number of horses in the sequences? Is that available somewhere? Thanks.

Cholly
12-30-2018, 12:37 AM
I've been meaning to ask. How do you have insight into what the winning ticket cost and the number of horses in the sequences? Is that available somewhere? Thanks.


https://www.paulickreport.com/horseplayers-category/gulfstream-rainbow-6-hit-by-tvg-bettor-for-288k/

Suff
12-30-2018, 05:09 PM
Thanks. A Press Release.


I don't play the Pick 6 but I'm against a .20 cent pick 6 because it's basically paying Journeyman rates to Apprentices. Historically, Pick 6 play has been reserved for the players with firm wallets, strong opinions and skills honed over time.

But since I don't play it , its benign to what I'm doing.

AndyC
12-31-2018, 12:29 PM
https://www.paulickreport.com/horseplayers-category/gulfstream-rainbow-6-hit-by-tvg-bettor-for-288k/

That shows the winning ticket. The bettor may have been using an A-B-C method and had 18 or 20 losing tickets as well. Regardless it was a great score. I am sure the track would prefer that a bettor won putting up only $9.60 so that all the small players continue chasing the rainbow.

ronsmac
12-31-2018, 04:26 PM
That shows the winning ticket. The bettor may have been using an A-B-C method and had 18 or 20 losing tickets as well. Regardless it was a great score. I am sure the track would prefer that a bettor won putting up only $9.60 so that all the small players continue chasing the rainbow.Looking at the size of the pools , it appears the conventional pick 6 is gone for good at Santa Anita. I wouldn't be surprised if Del Mar goes to the rainbow Pick 6 also.

HalvOnHorseracing
12-31-2018, 11:34 PM
If they ever started giving us the money that used to go to breakage, the $20 a day players will be asking for penny bets

Prioress Ply
01-02-2019, 01:01 AM
And how about that grrreat pick 4. I hit it yesterday. The $1 payoff was $2328. The odds of the four winners were 6-1, 14-1, 7/2, 10-1. That means a $1 parlay would have paid $5200. There's some value for Peter to chew on.\\

Joke.

coachv30
01-02-2019, 02:22 PM
Peter Lurie just said those who are complaining about the 20c pick 6 at santa anita and prefer the $2 pick 6, just play the 20c pick 6 for 2 dollars. I'm dumbfounded. He just showed a total lack of understanding of how the pick 6 works.

That guy is absolutely DRAINING!! The poor girl working with him; she must have drew the shortest straw....jeez!! Definitely a mute button situation here:rolleyes: