One good idea

[andicap]

Here's something for a rainy day.
This is related to the angle thread we had recently.

Post one thing you do in your handicapping that is a little offbeat that helps you find winners.
for example, Valuist has posted about the negative maiden key race which I found fascinating.

Here's mine.

Go over the result charts and check off every horse that raced on the rail. Enter them into your Stablemail --- horses to watch lists on DRF or whereever and see how they do coming back.
If a number of them improve it's possible there was a dead rail that day.
If a disproportionate number of them perform poorly despite good figures, it's possible the rail was golden.

[superfecta]

one thing I have started using more for TB as well as Harness is the odds for the last start before todays race.if the horse had smaller odds in its last race and did not win or ran an "even "race and is running at long odds today I will throw these horses in the mix for the exotics.In harness races it is quite useful for longshots(I suspect the horse might not have fired in the race it was bet down on and was not expected to improve today).limited use in TB capping,but I will study more to see if a similar pattern develops.

[First_Place]

Hmmm...where do I begin? Okay, here's one for ya:

I scan the odds column in the past performance lines and make note of any "good" races (good race = in the money finish or within two lengths if sprint, or within three lengths if route) and the accompanying odds. More than one "good" race at odds higher than horse should've received based upon its performance in a particular race is necessary to consider this factor (or indicator) as such. I usually use three races and up.

Here's my reasoning: The "good" races coupled with odds higher than the horse should have received in a particular race means to me this particular horse (and perhaps shrewd/sneaky trainer) is capable of upsets, not necessarily to win but to finish in the money (or top four slots) at higher odds--something especially useful in exotics.

It goes without saying this is NOT a stand alone indicator but icing on the cake if it coincides with other positive handicapping factors.

I know I've just violated the "if it works for you keep your mouth shut" rule. What can I say? I'm a nice guy who doesn't mind sharing some of my knowledge with like minded individuals. At least some of the time.

FP

p.s. I'd really like to know (for those of you with large databases) how this angle works out over a large sample of races. Not necessary that the horse(s) should win but for it to finish in the top four slots.

[cj]

Hang out in the War Room while betting on the weekends. It makes it easy to pass races you don't like, and there is some damn good stuff being passed around.

For offbeat, I would say the two things I do that I don't hear many others doing:

1. I make pace call variants
2. I base those variants on pars derived from the times of the winner of a race at the pace call, not the leader of the race

[Derek2U]

Good Sunday Morning Guys .... It's almost like a mid-Oct morning
in manhattan. I ran out with shorts & a T & well .... brrrrrrrrr.
I agree with CJ, the pace-man, HANG OUT IN THE WAR ROOM.
hey real cappers are there and no one minds if you express
your picks freely.

[Tom]

When I hang out in the War Room, I wait for Derek to say a horse sucs, then unload on it! Proven system!:D

[ratpack]

Here is an oldie but goodies that I use:

At 1M and 1 1/16 look for horses on the outside post 8-9-10+ that had tactical speed but were caught wide on the first turn. Next race they move inside.

Here is an Carmer Auto elimination: If you have a 8 or less Win % for both Jocky and Trainer.

[ponyplayer]

Here is an off beat angle I use ocassionally. In maiden races or low level claiming races I scan the entries and see which ones made the greatest improvement in the final beaten lengths position in their last two races.

For example, next to last race finished 6th beaten 12 lengths, then last race finished 7th but only 3 beaten lengths. He improved 9 lengths on his finish.

I look for these and play them in my exotics.

[samurai]

I believe in the stock market phrase and like to compile short and long term trends, i.e breakdowns per meet, and class level.
For instance in the Bel fall meets, MSW dropdowns will demolish the maiden claimers early on. This has already started with dropdowns running 1,2,4 on 9/16 race #1. Another trend that produces nice priced winners are the runners switching from turf to dirt. Last Bel fall meet had 6 winners on one card making such a move all at good prices. This usually happens when the energy profile of the track starts to shift toward an emphasis on even or late energy distribution.

An example of class level trends was evident last Aqu spring meet when the F&M entry allowance division ( NW1,2) lacked stamina so almost all of the winners were NY state breds.

I try to note negative trends as well such as what losing favorites have in common or when trainers lose owners that contribute a lot of monetary backing. Kiarin McGlauglin cooled off noticeably when certain owners shifted their stock to another trainer.

Since I'm not a db guru, most of this info is compiled by hand so I only have time to follow the NYRA circuit but I'm sure this is applicable to other tracks. Just finished reading this months issue of Horseplayer magazine and there is some interesting stats regarding the night time tracks similar to my post.

[Niko]

Take an adjusted pace rating that emphasizes late pace from the horses best race prior to it's last and combine it with an acceleration or early pace rating from its last race.
If the horse is ranked in the top 2 on either and is at good odds relative to the field I have a play

[Shacopate]

Last work.

If a horse earns a bullet that is at least 5 lenghts faster than the rest (15 starters or more) He goes on the watch list.

More than a few $30+ horses fit this profile at Delta Downs last year.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Shacopate
Last work.

If a horse earns a bullet that is at least 5 lenghts faster than the rest (15 starters or more) He goes on the watch list.

More than a few $30+ horses fit this profile at Delta Downs last year.

and where do you glean your info from? Do you buy a report for Delta Downs? or get it somewhere else........?

[Shacopate]

Ralph,

Go to Equibase and click workouts under the free information window.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Shacopate
Ralph,

Go to Equibase and click workouts under the free information window.

You learn something new everyday. Thanks!