HHQSS, a work in progress

[headhawg]

Earlier this year Tom made reference to PHQS, originally and pen-n-paper system sold by a(n) (in)famous purveyor of such systems/software. I wrote an EquiSim formula based on PHQS but it really didn't show too much, not that should surprise anyone. I decided to revisit the system to see if I could make it better based on some things that I have read and also some database queries. In the spring, I programmed a version called HHQSS as a stand-alone application. After testing about 250 races I discovered that there might be something to this. I got burned out doing testing on it so I stopped working on it. Until recently...

I am attaching an early (alpha) version of the program for a couple of reasons. One, I hope that the PA community will provide feedback by doing some backtesting. The feedback should be constructive -- I don't really need to read that the program sucks. If that's what you think then don't bother posting and go pound sand. What would be great is users telling me what is showing both positive and negative results, i.e. track, race type, point gaps, datafile type (drf, jcp), etc. The second reason is that I hope by having a thread on PA I will be more likely to continue with working on and improving the program.

Here is what I have found so far. Differences of one point seem to be irrelevant, so treat those horses as the same. There starts to be a difference at two points, and obviously the bigger the gap the bigger the more likely the higher point horse will win. The system works better with older horses on dirt, so I would like to improve the turf ratings. It is not great with maiden races especially those with more than one FTS. More testing is needed with MCL races with horses that have run a few times. This is NOT a longshot program -- high point total horses will be low- to medium- priced. The most interesting thing that I have discovered is that if the favorite is NOT the top rated horse it usually doesn't win. In other words, HHQSS may work very well as a chalk eliminator program at least from the top slot. The opposite appears to also be true -- if the chalk is the top horse by at least two points it might make for a good single.

Other things to know: There is no scratch utility built in as of yet, so using the program "live" will probably not work unless you use my HDST program to create a modified data file. Scratches are important as there is "pace pressure" factor that contributes to the point total. The "Set Options" button is disabled so don't bother to click it. The output is sent to a text file named "HHQSS.txt" and should be saved to the data file folder. I recommend putting the datafiles in the same folder as HHQSS for now. The text file gets appended; that is, every time HHQSS is run the output is added to the end of the file. If you want to start fresh then just delete or rename the .txt file. You can load multiple datafiles at one time; I would use a reasonable number such as loading files from one particular date. I don't think I set a limit on the number that can be loaded, but there's a reasonable chance that something bad will happen if you load too many files (like a program crash). Also, the data files must be unzipped!

HHQSS is free to use but it is not open source and not in the public domain. If you have any doubt about using the program, then don't download and install it. There is no deadline to complete this project and no update schedule either. I will update when I can; this is definitely a WIP.

To install, just unzip the files into a folder. There really isn't an installation program and nothing is written to the Windows registry. Double-click the exe to launch. I am developing on a Win7 system so I have no idea if this works on Vista, 8.1, or Win10. Probably, but perhaps users will verify.

BTW, the aforementioned vendor is charging $200 for its version. Just sayin'.

[JimG]

HH,

Works on my win7 32 bit machine just fine using the scratch file from Scratch Manager. I know it is early, but suggest sorting in point order and the morning line being included in the sort, to quickly scan overlays.

Jim

[mikesal57]

Nice going HH...

Works on win 10....just an alignment issue going on...
As for the figs.......falls in line with what Joe Public sees...
Need to be more creative...

Mike

[headhawg]

Thanks Jim. I already had sorting by total points in my notes. I will also make sure to include the M/L. The final version should be fancier, with a real UI that will let you sort on whatever column the user would like. That's the plan, anyway. I will probably introduce the UI once HHQSS reaches a beta stage.

One more thing to note, and I hope that users will verify. At a 5+ point gap, things get interesting in terms of the confidence level of the top horse. Also, look for point clusters, e.g. the first two horses are close in points, but there is a gap between those two and the next group.

[headhawg]

Thanks Mike. I don't have that alignment issue using Notepad; I will check into it. Remember a couple of things -- the program isn't going to find bombs, as I stated in my OP. It may bring more confidence in betting lower-priced horses or in using them for horizontal bets. And this is in an alpha stage -- if the point system proves useless then I didn't spend 200 hours coding features that don't matter anyway.

[KyRacer]

Hi HH,
I bought Equisim earlier this year and just recently started to use the formula view. I had been thinking of trying to program PHQS into the formula view too. The basic PHQS seems like a simple program. I have the old software. When they brought out the new software they changed the basic formula, but I haven't bought it so I don't know what the changes are.

As for HHQSS, I had to run in as administrator the first time on Windows 10 64 bit. I scanned the file with Advast and Malwarebytes and it passed the scans, but when I clicked on it to open, Advast pop upped and said CyberCapture has been activated. You have discovered a very rare file. It was being sent to Advast Lab for interrogation. I have never seen that pop up before. I then ran the file the VirusTotal website. Only 1 of the 68 virus scanners said it as unsafe. Something called Cylance said it was unsafe. It uses some type of AI. I had the same thing happen with another file I ran through there. It was the only one that complained. I believe the file is safe so I went ahead and ran it on my computer, but had to run it as administrator.

Will be interesting to follow the development of the program. I ran a file from Turfway park from last night through it. I haven't used the scratch program yet. I used Textpad tex editor which allowed me to sort on the points total. Good luck with the program.


TP 12/08/18

Race 1 Md 30000 EPP: 0
#2 LADY LEAH Points: 27 SCR
#2B FOGGY KITTEN Points: 22
#4 ANNAGRAM Points: 17
#1 CHAMPAGNERIE Points: 15
#7 GOLDEN LOCH Points: 14
#1A HOPE SO Points: 13 WON 11.40
#5 IMPULSIVE Points: 12
#6 CZRAINA MARIA Points: 9
#3 KIMBERLEY DREAM Points: 9

Race 2 Clm 5000n3l EPP: 0
#4 YOU'RE THE REASON Points: 30 WON 2.40 DH
#8 TACO WAYNE'S SHOT Points: 25
#5 RINGIN IN THE RAIN Points: 25 WON 3.60 DH
#7 JILLS PASSION Points: 22
#3 CHEATING EX Points: 21
#1 BLACK IS BACK Points: 20 SCR LATE
#2 NEW BLUE CAT Points: 17
#6 RED SPOTS Points: 13
#9 K LYN WINS Points:-1

Race 3 Clm 5000 EPP: 0
#4 PRIMED FOR TALENT Points: 35
#9 PLAIN TALES Points: 30
#8 MY FOOLISH BEAU Points: 27
#6 JOEY B Points: 27 WON 16.00
#1 BAKU DANCER Points: 25
#1A SYROX Points: 24
#7 BENEDICTION Points: 24 SCR
#2 RED BLUE AND TRUE Points: 24
#5 GRAND GINJO Points: 22
#3 WOODBURN Points: 21

Race 4 Clm 7500n2l EPP: 0
#1 TIME TRAVELLER Points: 33
#6 LORD REVELSTOKE Points: 32 WON 6.00
#4 DARINGLY BOLD Points: 31
#8 STORM SCAT Points: 29
#5 MAJOR TEMPO Points: 23
#2 LAUGHING LEVI Points: 21
#3 TERMINAL SPEED Points: 12
#7 REXARONY Points: 11

Race 5 Clm 5000n2y EPP: 1
#3 STINA Points: 31
#9 TENACIOUS SALLY Points: 29
#5 LIAR'S SMOKER Points: 29
#4 NATIVE WONDER Points: 27
#6 SPOT A KISS Points: 26 SCR
#10 MALEFICENT QUEEN Points: 26
#8 SEAMSTRESS Points: 22
#7 NAPA VALLEY ROSE Points: 22 WON 29.80
#2 HAUTE PROSPECT Points: 21
#1 EVERYDAY ICE Points: 16

Race 6 Clm 5000n3l EPP: 0
#5 HONOR BAR Points: 30
#3 SHYLA Points: 29 WON 6.00
#7 LUNARIS Points: 26
#8 CHANCE OF FROST Points: 22
#9 READY TO GO Points: 19
#4 APPEALING JULIA Points: 16
#6 WILL WANTS CANDY Points: 16
#2 DULCE DE LECHE Points: 15
#1 LUCKY ME LUCKY YOU Points: 13

Race 7 OClm 40000n2x EPP: 3
#2 ACTION EVERYDAY Points: 37
#1 THIRSTY ACTOR Points: 35
#3 BROKEN PROMISE Points: 33 WON 5.60
#4 SPEED GRACER Points: 32
#1A MISTER POLLARD Points: 23 SCR
#5 KING VALERO Points: 21
#6 SOUTHWEST TRAIL Points: 16

Race 8 Md Sp Wt EPP: 0
#9 CLEAR FOR ACTION Points: 36 SCR
#10 KEROS Points: 29 WON 6.00
#1 RETALIATED Points: 24
#8 TAPIFYN Points: 22
#5 ARNO'S MANE MAN Points: 16
#13 INSPIRED TO ROCK Points: 16 SCR
#12 GOTTSACKER Points: 15
#7 BORDER CROSSING Points: 13
#6 MARV'S MAGIC Points: 10
#3 MIREUON Points: 6
#2 EL CAPA ROJO Points: 4
#4 NORTH POINT Points:-3
#11 SUPER SILVER Points:-2

[headhawg]

Thanks KyRacer. I am really not sure why this would get flagged as potential malware. There is nothing in the code that would do anything malicious. The process is to load datafiles, crunch some numbers, and write the text file.

As I mentioned in the first post, it is important to scratch horses before running the program. Pace pressure is a factor, and the calculated points will likely differ depending on the speed of the horses scratched as well as other data such as track surface. One of the things that will change in a future version is the computing of early speed points. Right now HHQSS reads that info from the datafile.

[KyRacer]

I got a reply back that came through Avast saying that the file had been processed and that the file is safe. CyberCapture is a new feature in Avast. It can be turned off. I think it flag your file because it was the first time it came across it. My first message said it could take a couple of hours for the lab to process it. The Cylance scan was probably just a false positive.

[JJMartin]

HH,

Works on my win7 32 bit machine just fine using the scratch file from Scratch Manager. I know it is early, but suggest sorting in point order and the morning line being included in the sort, to quickly scan overlays.

Jim


Does not appear to work on Win7 64 bit.

[headhawg]

It should work JJ. I am using Win7 Pro 64-bit. When the .zip file is extracted, you should have two folders, a .dll, and the .exe. If those aren't in the same parent folder it won't work.

[JJMartin]

It should work JJ. I am using Win7 Pro 64-bit. When the .zip file is extracted, you should have two folders, a .dll, and the .exe. If those aren't in the same parent folder it won't work.


It calls explorer to select race file and then nothing happens.

[mikesal57]

It calls explorer to select race file and then nothing happens.

Look in folder where you selected the data file from......



theres a file named HHQSS.TXT

[JJMartin]

Look in folder where you selected the data file from......



theres a file named HHQSS.TXT


I see it now, is that how it works?
Thanks.

[JJMartin]

I think I can make something in excel to import and sort the data.

[headhawg]

This is a very early version so the output goes to a text file; that is how it works for the time being. The main purpose for releasing HHQSS now was to see if there is any merit to the point system. That is, can we find some set of betting rules or patterns that make the program usable. It doesn't make sense for me to spend time putting in a fancy interface or print options if the main calculation engine is a flop.

In earlier posts I mentioned some things that I observed and I was hoping that the PA "testers" would confirm those and/or report back things that they have found. Obviously the more races tested the better. As I mentioned, I think that there's something to the point system -- it's just a matter of discovering what to tweak and how to use it in a worthwhile manner.

[JJMartin]

This is a very early version so the output goes to a text file; that is how it works for the time being. The main purpose for releasing HHQSS now was to see if there is any merit to the point system. That is, can we find some set of betting rules or patterns that make the program usable. It doesn't make sense for me to spend time putting in a fancy interface or print options if the main calculation engine is a flop.

In earlier posts I mentioned some things that I observed and I was hoping that the PA "testers" would confirm those and/or report back things that they have found. Obviously the more races tested the better. As I mentioned, I think that there's something to the point system -- it's just a matter of discovering what to tweak and how to use it in a worthwhile manner.

Are you the author of PHQS Platinum?

[headhawg]

Are you the author of PHQS Platinum?No, I am not. I do not know who designed the system but the coding looks like the work of Len Czyzniejewski who does a lot of work for that particular vendor.

[acorn54]

Thanks Mike. I don't have that alignment issue using Notepad; I will check into it. Remember a couple of things -- the program isn't going to find bombs, as I stated in my OP. It may bring more confidence in betting lower-priced horses or in using them for horizontal bets. And this is in an alpha stage -- if the point system proves useless then I didn't spend 200 hours coding features that don't matter anyway.

headhawg, acorn here. if it means anything to you, dr william quirin mentioned in the appendix of his book "winning at the races", he could find no "checklist" system that turned a profit. he concluded that such highly rated horses have no "holes", in them, as he put it. they were too "perfect".

[headhawg]

I don't disagree with you acorn, but the purpose of HHQSS is to be a tool that may help handicappers make better decisions, and not to be a black box. What if it can raise your winning percentage by a couple of points? Would it not be useful? I have know idea if this will work, and I have only heard back from a couple of users about results. It could just be that it's the holiday season and people are doing other things. Maybe I will have a newer version after the first of the new year.

[hyipro]

Downloaded and installed on desk top, took a drf file and copied into
program data file, opened up the program and clicked process, nothing ?
did I miss a step. Thank (32 bit system)

[hyipro]

Downloaded the program un zipped, placed on desk top, took a drf file
and coped to program data file, clicked load file, selected it, nothing
happens ?? Did I miss a step ?

[headhawg]

Did you look in the data file folder for a file named HHQSS.txt? As I posted a couple of times, this is a very early version of the program to test to see if the point system has any value. There is no fancy interface or output.

[mikesal57]

Downloaded the program un zipped, placed on desk top, took a drf file
and coped to program data file, clicked load file, selected it, nothing
happens ?? Did I miss a step ?

Wherever you selected the DRF from .....is where the .txt file is in

[headhawg]

I need to be clear about something. HHQSS is not a clone of PHQS platinum version or any other version, and I am not in violation of any copyright laws. I have no idea how PHQS manipulates the data aside from the information posted on the vendor's website. The only likely commonality is that both programs use speed, pace, and other factors just like a gazillion other handicapping programs.

[mikesal57]

I need to be clear about something. HHQSS is not a clone of PHQS platinum version or any other version, and I am not in violation of any copyright laws. I have no idea how PHQS manipulates the data aside from the information posted on the vendor's website. The only likely commonality is that both programs use speed, pace, and other factors just like a gazillion other handicapping programs.

Brian....

make sure you state a disclaimer of sort...so that the data a-holes dont comea calling...


You know who you both are!!

Mike

[hyipro]

Thank you and yep there it was................

[mikesal57]

Thank you and yep there it was................

:ThmbUp:

[hyipro]

Did a copy and paste from the Txt file to an excel file then did a sort race by race and points are in order of high low................did a delete ready for
the next card..........saved as hhqss.sort

[JJMartin]

Some general feedback:

A scratch feature would be great. There are frequently a lot of ties in the scores, perhaps some sort of tie breaking criteria if possible.

[headhawg]

I will add a scratch feature to the next release which will be after the holidays. As far as ties...maybe the odds should be the tiebreaker. Or, maybe that indicates a race that should be passed or one that a longer shot should be played. I think looking at the point gaps will be important; no gaps, no plays. That's the kind of thing that I was hoping users would research.

Thanks for the feedback.

[PaceAdvantage]

Brian....

make sure you state a disclaimer of sort...so that the data a-holes dont comea calling...


You know who you both are!!

MikeThere's only one asshole I can see when it comes to this topic.

[headhawg]

First of all, thanks to the users who have provided feedback. I will certainly take the suggestions under advisement. Considering that there has been 131 view/downloads I was really hoping for more feedback. So I am a little disappointed with that but not really surprised.

Secondly, what's next? I have been doing a lot of research lately. The core idea in HHQSS is sound, but I have been working on improving it. A new version is in the works. From a development POV it's virtually a new program. I am going to tweak the factors being used and also add new features. Some of the significant ones are adding the ability to scratch horses (similar to my HDST program), and also a user options screen. Some of the options will include choosing from different early speed and speed rating methods, and also the ability to choose the factors to include/exclude from the ratings. I am also toying around with idea of letting the user set the factor "weights".

The other important news is that I am unlikely to release this as a freeware program. While I don't expect to sell too many copies, a little bit of compensation will help me develop two other programs that I have in mind. This decision is not set in stone, so we will see what happens.

Thanks again and best of luck to all.

[mikesal57]

First of all, thanks to the users who have provided feedback. I will certainly take the suggestions under advisement. Considering that there has been 131 view/downloads I was really hoping for more feedback. So I am a little disappointed with that but not really surprised.

Secondly, what's next? I have been doing a lot of research lately. The core idea in HHQSS is sound, but I have been working on improving it. A new version is in the works. From a development POV it's virtually a new program. I am going to tweak the factors being used and also add new features. Some of the significant ones are adding the ability to scratch horses (similar to my HDST program), and also a user options screen. Some of the options will include choosing from different early speed and speed rating methods, and also the ability to choose the factors to include/exclude from the ratings. I am also toying around with idea of letting the user set the factor "weights".

The other important news is that I am unlikely to release this as a freeware program. While I don't expect to sell too many copies, a little bit of compensation will help me develop two other programs that I have in mind. This decision is not set in stone, so we will see what happens.

Thanks again and best of luck to all.

HH..

some thoughts....

categories...early, late, class, form, speed ratings , trn , rider......
and the one thing that can make it powerful is
the ability to make a database....you know that already working with me :)
If you need advice....you know where i am

Mike

[headhawg]

Mike,

All of those factors (plus a few more) are in HHQSS in some, way, shape or, form except for LP. I can't find situations that will consistently produce more winners or a better $NET for LP. I am not saying they don't exist, but I can't seem to find them. The research continues.

As far as a database goes, that won't be included in the program as that would take more development time and increase the price. I could create a .csv file that could be imported into Excel or Access, though. I'd have to think about what the csv would include or even if it's worthwhile.

[slodog]

I thank you for the opportunity to look at your program. This week I took a bit of time and ran a years worth of data through two tracks ( Mnr and Ct).

The results were good. In all I did around 2200 races. The win percentage on dirt for top ranked horse was a little over 32%. Turf was a little less at a little over 28%, but there were only about 200 of these.

I also normalized them and the hit percentage went up to a little over 35% for horses in the top 90 percentile. It stayed about the same for the top 95 percentile, but the sample of those was really small.

As far as suggestions, the thing that would be the most benefit to me would be a csv file of the raw scores of the factors that you are using. That way one could easily do a MLR in excel using solver to help weight the factors.

I hope this helps some.

Again thank you very much for the opportunity to try your program, and wish you the very best with it.

Jim

[headhawg]

Thanks slodog. I appreciate the feedback. I am working on boosting the algorithm for turf and maiden races as I knew the results weren't as good as I would have liked. Currently doing more research than coding so hopefully the next version will be even better. No sense in releasing it if it's not. :)

[headhawg]

A few people have asked me about a release date for the new version of HHQSS. My best guess is between 45 and 60 days from now and honestly probably closer to 60. My original goal was by July 11, the opening day of the Saratoga meet, but a lot of positive things would need to occur for that to happen. Out of respect for PA and the advertisers here I don't want to say too much about the program as it will not be free to use. I imagine that somehow people will find out about it. ;)

Best of luck to all.

[UnifiedTheory]

A few people have asked me about a release date for the new version of HHQSS. My best guess is between 45 and 60 days from now and honestly probably closer to 60. My original goal was by July 11, the opening day of the Saratoga meet, but a lot of positive things would need to occur for that to happen. Out of respect for PA and the advertisers here I don't want to say too much about the program as it will not be free to use. I imagine that somehow people will find out about it. ;)

Best of luck to all.


I'm glad to hear you're developing a new handicapping program. :headbanger:


I wish I had the time to check out the current version of your developing program and potentially help the development with my testing but I'm already short on time with the project I'm currently working on.


Like many people on this forum I'm often extremely curious about new handicapping software. And when I know and respect the creator of the software, I feel compelled to check out the finished program and purchase.


I appreciate your many illuminating posts to this forum and HDST v1.2 is a very helpful program that I feel fortunate to own.


No matter how my project turns out, I will be interested in purchasing HHQSS when it's available for purchase.


Happy coding! :)

[headhawg]

Thanks for the kind words, UT. The check is in the mail. :)

[mikesal57]

Mike,


As far as a database goes, that won't be included in the program as that would take more development time and increase the price. I could create a .csv file that could be imported into Excel or Access, though. I'd have to think about what the csv would include or even if it's worthwhile.

On this again...question...will the user have any input to values or weights...or is it pre-determined number from you?

Mike

[headhawg]

Mike,

There will likely be two versions. One will be a standard version with few user options. The second will be a "professional" version with tweakable parameters. I haven't decided on how extensive those options will be as of yet. It's also possible that during coding I will just decide to have a single complete version. Part of that decision will include things like amount of coding time and marketing factors (i.e. price, etc).

[mikesal57]

Mike,

There will likely be two versions. One will be a standard version with few user options. The second will be a "professional" version with tweakable parameters. I haven't decided on how extensive those options will be as of yet. It's also possible that during coding I will just decide to have a single complete version. Part of that decision will include things like amount of coding time and marketing factors (i.e. price, etc).

On the Professional Version...I cant stress how important a CSV File with Results is....without it ...its more a guess than a scientific approach.

Good Luck

Mike

[headhawg]

I am working on the interface for the new version of HHQSS. I was originally going to use the same interface as the HDST file modifier program, but I liked this better. The horse logo is just a placeholder, and the screen border color will vary by computer (depending on Windows defaults). The output will go into the white space. Thoughts?

[mikesal57]

I am working on the interface for the new version of HHQSS. I was originally going to use the same interface as the HDST file modifier program, but I liked this better. The horse logo is just a placeholder, and the screen border color will vary by computer (depending on Windows defaults). The output will go into the white space. Thoughts?

:ThmbUp: HH

Will ALL info be in the white...?

[JJMartin]

What's this written in?

[headhawg]

Yes, but it won't just be black text on the white background. I've attached a pic of a sample listview, obviously not from my program. The output will go into a sortable listview control with maybe a text box at the top of the white screen with the race conditions. Still working on that part.

[headhawg]

What's this written in?PowerBasic

[mmdorn]

I am working on the interface for the new version of HHQSS. I was originally going to use the same interface as the HDST file modifier program, but I liked this better. The horse logo is just a placeholder, and the screen border color will vary by computer (depending on Windows defaults). The output will go into the white space. Thoughts?

I think it looks very good.

Mike

[mikesal57]

What's this written in?

我不知道

[Longshot6977]

I am working on the interface for the new version of HHQSS. I was originally going to use the same interface as the HDST file modifier program, but I liked this better. The horse logo is just a placeholder, and the screen border color will vary by computer (depending on Windows defaults). The output will go into the white space. Thoughts?

Looks nice HH. If I don't download a scratch file, can I still use the Scratch Horse button and do it manually?

[headhawg]

Yes, you will be able to scratch horses without the file. You will also be able to unscratch should you accidentally scratch the wrong horse. It will work much like the HDST program. The difference is that you can have multiple files open in the new program. (I think I set a limit of 10.) Well, that's the goal anyway; it's a bit of a challenge for me both coding-wise and with the interface design.