Bris / tsn Power numbers

[panda1]

After reading the info on MC.........I was wondering if anyone has ever done any studies on this scenerio.........
top bris / tsn horse that has a 5 to 7 point advantge over the second horse and is the post time favorite ......would be curious to know the win , place and show % for this scenerio.......Thanks in advance...........:D

[Speed Figure]

Those horses are FAR OVER BET and lose big money. They almost always go off at below even money. If you see one that's 3/1 of higher it could be a good bet, but you don't find them that much.

[Speed Figure]

Roses in May is 7.5 pts better than the next horse on prime power numbers. He's 2/5 on the ML, have fun.;)

[Secretariat]

I did a study of Saratoga races from 2001 through 2004 on Bris Prime (which is what I assume you mean by power).

Here is the total for Prime at SAR on ALL plays:

1360 attempts
413 wins
30.37% Win
0.95 ROI

Pretty good, a 5 cent loss.

Now ones that are greater than 5 points advantage and 5/2 or less:

331 attempts
148 wins
44.71% win
0.94 ROI

A slight reduction off all primes, but with a higher win%.

However, I did find a nice subset I'm passing on to you. Who knows if it will hold up over next SAR meet, but it has over 4 years at SAR.

Here are the rules: Top Prime, Odds 3/1 or Up today, Prime advantage of between 0 and 2 points. Ran within the last 61 days. Exclude Maiden Races.

151 attempts
34 wins
22.52% win
1.32 ROI

Best to you.

[panda1]

Thanks Sec

Was just curious how the numbers matched up.......Thanks for the insight on saratoga.........appreciate your time and effort.

[bettheoverlay]

I have also found that the top PP is best with smaller point advantages because of the likelihood of better prices. Big advantages are way too chalky. I have tried to use these big advantage horses on top in exactas but so far with no long term success.

I use the PPs in the second and especially the 3rd spot. Sometimes when I am tired and braindead from a tough work week I print 6 tracks and just decide if I want to bet the 3rd slot or not. Have had some good days as the prices can be juicy.

The only good P3s I hit are when I use the 2nd, 3rd and sometimes the 4th spot in all 3 races and ignore the top #.

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by panda1
After reading the info on MC.........I was wondering if anyone has ever done any studies on this scenerio.........
top bris / tsn horse that has a 5 to 7 point advantge over the second horse and is the post time favorite ......would be curious to know the win , place and show % for this scenerio.......Thanks in advance...........:D

7 point gap in over 7000 races produced a loss of 20%.. (15% winners) what else is new.

Joe M

[CapperLou]

That last set of numbers is interesting!!!

What tracks were involved in the run? And you used Bris----

I'm going to run some tests with my Equisim database and see what happens. Of course, it has the TSN Prime Power number.
I think the key is to get value on these and then it will show a decent ROI.

What you show in 61 days is very impressive.

All the best,

CapperLou

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by formula_2002
7 point gap in over 7000 races produced a loss of 20%.. (15% winners) what else is new.

Joe M

Thats incorrect. its a 12% loss in 1418 races.

Joe M

[Larry Hamilton]

here is approx 8% of my total races: What is clearly indicated is that if you rely on Prime/Power number exclusively, you are going to win lots of races on the way to the poor house.


Gaps tot Cost Wins Win% Win$ Profit
-76 1 2 0 0.00 0.00 -2.00
-33 2 4 0 0.00 0.00 -4.00
-29 3 6 0 0.00 0.00 -6.00
-27 6 12 3 0.50 11.60 -0.40
-26 4 8 0 0.00 0.00 -8.00
-25 2 4 1 0.50 2.40 -1.60
-24 4 8 3 0.75 12.00 4.00
-23 8 16 5 0.63 20.00 4.00
-22 5 10 3 0.60 8.40 -1.60
-21 9 18 5 0.56 16.20 -1.80
-20 8 16 6 0.75 19.80 3.80
-19 14 28 5 0.36 17.40 -10.60
-18 21 42 15 0.71 80.60 38.60
-17 15 30 7 0.47 24.20 -5.80
-16 29 58 15 0.52 80.60 22.60
-15 55 110 30 0.55 117.80 7.80
-14 54 108 30 0.56 113.90 5.90
-13 80 160 32 0.40 149.90 -10.10
-12 128 256 58 0.45 253.70 -2.30
-11 143 286 55 0.38 239.10 -46.90
-10 185 370 83 0.45 336.30 -33.70
-9 296 592 110 0.37 482.20 -109.80
-8 411 822 173 0.42 789.50 -32.50
-7 494 988 205 0.41 972.10 -15.90
-6 720 1440 263 0.37 1,308.00 -132.00
-5 860 1720 273 0.32 1,377.50 -342.50
-4 1229 2458 387 0.31 2,141.90 -316.10
-3 1433 2866 409 0.29 2,549.70 -316.30
-2 1795 3590 503 0.28 3,430.90 -159.10
-1 2207 4414 561 0.25 4,038.70 -375.30

[Jake]

Larry,

Nice table. My play is predicated on beating these prime power one horses, since they tend to be consistently underlayed. If I cant' find a legitimate contender which may exploits some hidden weakness in the prime power selection, I always pass the race at low odds. At low odds, these prime power horses will entice you to slowly bleed youself to death because of their high hit rate. Bad trap. The best pick 3 advice I can suggest for decent payoffs is to always throw out the prime power one horse in the first leg; same advice for the first leg of a trifecta.

[Secretariat]

Originally posted by CapperLou
That last set of numbers is interesting!!!

What tracks were involved in the run? And you used Bris----

I'm going to run some tests with my Equisim database and see what happens. Of course, it has the TSN Prime Power number.
I think the key is to get value on these and then it will show a decent ROI.

What you show in 61 days is very impressive.

All the best,

CapperLou

Lou,

Was strictly the Bris Prime for Saratoga only from 2001-2004.