EquiSim ROI -- Last Chance

[Handle]

Folks,

Since it has now been UNofficially announced on this MB, I'd like to announce the BETA release of the next version of EquiSim officially -- EquiSim ROI. My wife tells me ROI means "King" in French, but that's just coincidence <g>.

The purpose of this announcement is really to prevent "sticker shock" for everyone on this MB who has read about EquiSim or is currently using the trial version. The price of the new version will be significantly more when it is officially released. However, if you are currently trying out EquiSim you may purchase the current version and receive the new version at no additional cost. (Note: I did request an upgrade fee from people who have had the software for a longer period of time). In order to take advantage of this offer you must purchase before the new version is officially released. Between you, me, and the wind -- that will be in 1 week from today (next Sunday).

If you're interested in checking out the BETA release of the new version, there's a download link and a blurb or two here:
http://www.golganooza.com/esroi/beta/
The User's Guide, installed with the program, has more info. The web site above is just a beta site primarily for user's of previous versions.

-Handle

[Tom]

Handle,
Tried to buy Equsimm on line tonight-your site will not work-Iget an error message every time Itried and I am absolutley correct that the infor was correct that I entered in. Your error message doesn't tell where the error is, so I am stuck. Wnat to buy, but can't.

Tom

[Handle]

Hi Tom,

Sorry about the inconvenience. Could you please send me e-mail off the board. I'm sure we can get the problem resolved.

Send mail to: golganooza@golganooza.com

-Handle

[anotherdave]

Handle,

My local track is opening up next month and Equisim looks interesting. A couple of hundred questions, if I may!

If I want to set up an Equisim database for my track, can I use last years *.drf files for the track? Then I would need to buy archived results files for the meet last year, is that correct? It appears that I could also enter the results by hand relatively easily, but 100 days might be a bit much!

Now if that gets a bit too pricy, here's what I was wondering. If I use the BRIS *.drf files this year and manually put in the results each day as I go (which looks pretty quick based on you demo - just odds and finish position and notate if the horse if favourite I guess-), is that all I'd need? I could start a basic data base for this years races doing that or would I need to do more than that to get started? I guess I would still need to buy the files to get the other info too to get a full data base?

How many races would I need to get at least a half decent start on a data base?

Sorry from all the (likely stupid) questions from a data base virgin.

AD

[Handle]

AD,

Those are actually pretty good questions. OK, the one about .drf files is a little routine, but the one about building a database is very important.

If by .drf you mean the BRIS DRF Data Files, Single File Format, the answer to your question is yes. The similar (not identical) TSN files (TSN Data Files) will work as well. Last years card files will work fine.

You are right on in your assumptions about results. In order to make use of the Profiler you will need to get them loaded for each race somehow. Getting past exotic results files will make BRIS happy. Or, as you noted, you can enter the results manually if you'd like. But this is painful.

I also highly recommend the results files for another reason. EquiSim has the facility to create databases from scratch very quickly. Select the race cards you want in a database, use the "run all simulations", and then store to database. That means that, should you need to, you could re-create a database on the fly.

I think this sort of flexibility is important for at least one other good reason -- there are people that use EquiSim who are smarter than I am. They literally invent ways to use the program that I had not thought of (thanks for the feedback folks). One example -- Simulation biases created using the Simulation Tuning Wizard. You may want to test the results of biases created using various mechanisms (even your own settings). Being able to load up the race cards and pound them into a database after simulating makes this very easy to do -- if you have the results files.

How many races do you need? I would always say that the more races you have for a specific track the better. The way that Profiler works is that it "filters" races so statistics are only derived from races that are similar to the one you are handicapping. You can easily change the default filters (one click of the mouse per filter). There are lots of filters. So, the more races you have, the "tighter" your filters can be... and the more specific your results are going to be to the races you are handicapping.

So, while your database is small you may have to "loosen" the filters in order to get enough races in the particular profile. Still, how many races? I wish I had an exact answer. I believe the statisticians say that 30-something insures an equal distribution. But I'm not a statistician and this is horse racing. After EquiSim ROI gets some more air time (and I finally get more time to go back to handicapping instead of writing software!) I'll have a better answer for this. Now I think the best thing that you could do is use the Sample Database from HOU provided on the beta web site. This database has 301 races in it from HOU. The sample race card that is installed with Equisim is also from HOU. You could use this card with the database to "get a feel" for how much data this provides you with.

Now, I have a "stupid" question. It's one for the Lawyers. I would love to be able to offer people EquiSim databases of entire meets. Think about it. If this were possible, you could download a card from a track you never played before and have all of these incredible statistics for the track at your fingertips -- without having to have purchased every single card and results file on the planet. EquiSim creates its own database. A good deal of the information in the database is generated by the program. Of course, a good deal of the information is derived from BRIS/TSN data files -- which is copyright material.

The big question -- is it legal for me (and by extension, any EquiSim user) to distribute EquiSim databases?

Is anyone out there have any experience with this?

Well, I rambled on for a loooongg time here. Hope it answers your questions.

-Handle

[Handle]

AD,

You may also want to check out Game Theory's CHart downloader and, more importantly, chart parser. I just downloaded it and it looks like it will let you parse the charts into Exotic Results files.

So, you could download the charts (free), and apply the parser to them to create an exotic results file. Just make sure they are named the same way that BRIS or TSN name their files.

If this works, and BRIS or EquiBase do not change the format of their HTML charts, we all owe Game Theory a big debt of gratitude.

Note -- EquiSim requires line breaks to be in the BRIS files at the end of each set of comma delimited fields. As I haven't tried GT's parser yet, I'm not sure if it is compatible. I'll post my findings.

-Handle

[GameTheory]

Yes,

Post your findings. If anything is not compatible, I can probably make it compatible, UNLESS the incompatibility comes from simply not having a certain piece of data because it ain't in the HTML charts (like last race info).

Once I get the "multi" mode working, you should be able to output any of the data in absolutely any form you like...

[Handle]

GT,

Excellent work! First pass at parsing EquiBase charts seems to work great. .XRD files (Exotic Results) produced load into EquiSim just fine (take note AD) and the results appear to be correct.

[EDITED -- I thought I saw one of your post mentioning that you were going to do BRIS Instant Charts too. Looking at your documentation, I see that you might not be. If that's the case, then it provides an answer to the problem below!]

I did have a problem parsing BRIS Instant Charts. For every chart I try, I get the message for each race:
I'm skipping this race...102
Table: 12 : Row 1 : Cell 1
not as expected.

The Instant Charts in question are not mofidied. They are downloaded using Internet Exploiter version 5. I typically click get the context menu for the file's hyper link and use the "Save Target As..." option.


-Handle

Originally posted by GameTheory
Yes,

Post your findings. If anything is not compatible, I can probably make it compatible, UNLESS the incompatibility comes from simply not having a certain piece of data because it ain't in the HTML charts (like last race info).

Once I get the "multi" mode working, you should be able to output any of the data in absolutely any form you like...

[Dick Schmidt]

Handle,

I've been involved in legal discussions with a couple of lawyers on exactly the point you raise: can you sell a database when you have bought all the data, most of it is public domain and you make your own changes to it? The answer is always "yes you can." However (you knew that was coming), when you sign up with BRIS (or ITW or HDW or any other data supplier) you sign an agreement that you will not sell any data supplied by them, nor the PRODUCT of any of that data. Which means that if you use their data in any way, you cannot sell anything that comes from that data, including pars, picks or "massaged" data. They haven't as yet enforced the selling of picks, but they have stopped both of the others at one time or another.

This may be illegal, but both BRIS and Equibase have demonstrated a willingness to contest this in court. I doubt you could ever sell enough software to cover court costs. You could easily spend $100,000 even if you won. Unless you want to give up racing and live in court for a couple of years, I'd advise that you not distribute data nor anything derived from that data unless you can get permission from BRIS or TRN to do so. Sorry, I know that is not the answer you want to hear, but it is reality.

Of course, your users could share files (in defiance of the agreement that they also signed) without much fear of being detected, but they would have to do it on the QT. No posting on your BB, for instance, offering all of last years races. I really don't understand why they are so protective of past data, particularly when using it is going to generate more business, but they are. I'd think they would offer yesterday's data free to everyone, but they don't see it that way. You'll note they charge the same for yesterday's races as they do for tomorrow's. Extremely short-sighted, but hey, this is racing; a buck in the hand is better than building a business.

I'm not really sure just how your program functions, but you might be able to offer "suggestions" on how to set up each track based not on their data but your own deep, vast and exceptional knowledge of the program. Something like "At Santa Anita, a good place to start is Early - 14, Late - 7 etc. etc. Of course any of your users could do the same, if they also had a deep understanding of the program.

Good luck.

Dick

[tboles]

I have been using Gametheory's Chart Parser for about 2 weeks now (DO PLAN to send a donation). Thanks GT for the work on this!

Equisim has not encountered a problem with the program to date. However AD, if you had a yrs worth of racing files you would be limited in creating results files due to limitations of how far back the date goes (I'm sure you probably know this anyhow).

Also you would have to create the xrd file and then zip it up
in order for equisim to use it, unless Handle enlightens me otherwise.

Handle does Equisim have to find a zipped xrd file?

GT'S Parser will fetch the charts for you, but again you would have
to change the chart name in order for Equisim to use it.
for ex MNR_3_13_02.html
Instructions infrom users that Equisim looks for this format.

GT is there a way around this?

Tony

[GameTheory]

Well now let's see --

Let's clear things up. There is the charts downloader -- "Fetcher", and a separate program -- "Parser". Eventually they will be one and the same, but not yet.

Fetcher downloads the charts from Equibase in HTML format and names the files something like: c_2002_02_16_AQU.htm. I could make it more flexible, but I don't know of any program that tries to import the raw HTML charts except for the Parser.

Parser will use any filename you like, and is designed to allow you to emulate the filename format as well as the structure of files like .xrd files. Now if your program INSISTS on only dealing with .zip files; well that is convenient but would be a little weird if it couldn't handle the unzipped files as well.

I suppose I could add the capability to zip the output files from the parser, but that isn't something I'd ever use myself so it wouldn't be high on my list of things to do. If someone wants to send me a little $$$ to add this custom feature, however, I could do it and make it available to everyone.


On the question of BRIS charts (& TSN charts) -- yes, I was originally planning to have it do those too -- it will NOT work now -- but that's on the back burner till I get this first version fairly finalized. With their charts you gain full descriptions of the conditions (but you also get that with the TSN programs, which it will be able to do at some point as well), but lose the long form description of the running of the race (the "footnotes"). I think they also list breeders and full age/sex info. Bottom line is that for the forseeable future the parser will only do Equibase charts. If you want the most complete database possible (from free data), it would be a good idea to start saving TSN programs (Fetcher downloads these too), because the parser will be doing those at some point. That will give us the following: morning line, exact age/sex info for each horse, full conditions (which means I can fix that "race class" field, and a listing of scratches with reasons.


Let's also be clear that Parser is still very much in test mode, and accuracy is still in question. Those of you looking to use it to replace "real" result files should be comparing the results with those "real" files and looking for discrepencies.

I included those sample templates just to show what the parser can do -- I will probably make some more for other existing formats as well. Or one of you could do it -- I've shown you how. I haven't done any tests whatsoever trying to import into commercial software simply because I don't have any commercial software, so I don't know with what it will or will not work.


I believe Dick is correct about the distribution of data. Notice how I haven't offered to send anyone any actual data -- just a program that shuffles around that which you can get yourself. I don't believe you are even allowed to redistribute the free stuff.

[Handle]

Dick,

I thought that this would be the answer. Not the one that I wanted to hear, but exactly what I suspected. Even if I could win in court, the cost to do so is an immediate hurdle few of us could leap.

Thanks,
Handle

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Dick Schmidt
[B]Handle,

I've been involved in legal discussions with a couple of lawyers on exactly the point you raise: can you sell a database when you have bought all the data, most of it is public domain and you make your own changes to it?

[Handle]

Tony,

The files do NOT have to be zipped. The program first looks for unzipped files in the "canonical" bris or tsn file name format. If it doesn't find them, it then looks for the zipped file using the canonical zipped name. If it finds the zipped file, it unzips it, reads it in, and then zaps the unzipped file (I could have unzipped into memory but I got lazy there).



Originally posted by tboles
Also you would have to create the xrd file and then zip it up
in order for equisim to use it, unless Handle enlightens me otherwise.

Handle does Equisim have to find a zipped xrd file?

GT'S Parser will fetch the charts for you, but again you would have
to change the chart name in order for Equisim to use it.
for ex MNR_3_13_02.html
Instructions infrom users that Equisim looks for this format.

GT is there a way around this?

Tony

[Handle]

GT,

EquiSim imports raw HTML charts to stuff into its database. In order to efficiently load them into the program they need to be named with the format track_month_day_year.html. The charts can be imported <b>irregardless</b> of the name, but its more work in the user interface (you must supply the track and date and then select the file manually). In ES, you can then later recall these charts auto-magically from the pace line in its Form view.

NOTE to everyone -- EquiSim does <b>not</b> currently support EquiBase charts -- just the BRIS Instant Charts -- the format for charts is different enough to make them incompatible for what we're doing with them here. Eventually, ES will support EquiBase charts.

>Now if your program INSISTS on only dealing with .zip files; well >that is convenient but would be a little weird if it couldn't handle >the unzipped files as well.

ES works with zipped and unzipped files.


>On the question of BRIS charts (& TSN charts) -- yes, I was >originally planning to have it do those too -- it will NOT work >now -- but that's on the back burner till I get this first version >fairly finalized.

Understood.

>I believe Dick is correct about the distribution of data.

I imagine he is correct as well. I asked for permission from BRIS to distribute a sample card. If they had said no to this I would have been shocked given the business such software products send them. But, lets face it, if you could drop a Profiler database into your program with the latest 500 races from a particular track, that's potentially taking 50$ or so from BRIS. My feeling is that most people won't spend the 50-70$ (and hassle with downloading the archived files and results). Perhaps someday they will distribute EquiSim databases, but then they'd want to charge a price for these databases and I'm sure the price wouldn't be "free".

-Handle

[tanda]

Dick,

You questioned whether the BRIS agreements not to distribute/sell information produced from their data were legal.

They are clearly legal. The terms may not be agreeable to you, but if so, then you can refuse them and not buy their products.

Of course, the picks prohibition almost is impossible to prove. How can they prove that your picks are the result of their data?
Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on what side you are on), use of data in a database is easy to establish.

What BRIS is probably trying to accomplish (and this is a legitimate goal) is to prohibit a person/business from purchasing their data, then repackaging it in a form such that the buyer of the repackaged data will have no need to buy the data from BRIS. In other words, they do not want you to buy a file for $1 and distribute it in another form to others who now do not need the file from BRIS because yours is an adequate substitute and those people would otherwise have purchased from BRIS. If the repackaged data is such that the purchaser no longer needs to buy data from BRIS, then BRIS has a problem it needs to solve.

Whether they go too far is another question. I have not read the agreement (although I agreed to it ... and I am an attorney) nor am I familiar with any legal action taken by them.

[rrbauer]

OK all you legal sharpies:

Can you GIVE the database data to someone else?

Free!

Gratis!

[GameTheory]

Nope.

[Dave Schwartz]

Dick,

What you get in return for something does not change that structure of the agreement that essentially starts with "Thous shalt not..."

On the copyright front there are also issues. It would be like Naptser saying "We aren't charging for the music downloads."

Dave

[mikejlb]

It is understandable why Bris wouldn't want current data to be sold or shared after it is purchased. I wonder if they would have a problem sharing the htm format result files? These files are free to download. I lost a drive last year and with it most all of 2004 results. I have the bris files from some major tracks but they are no good without results.

[mhrussell]

:confused: Over the past couple of days, I have browsed the EquiSim website board and have read the User Manual. The program looks intriging and I have often thought about a "monte carlo" approach to analyzing a horse race. What is not clear, and what I am interested in knowing, is exactly how this program is doing the Sims? I know it takes a paceline (or average of several pacelines) and uses those pace and speed figs as well as considers post position and running style of the horses. What is not clear is how the simulation is formed mathematically...does the selected paceline(s) constitute a "mean" expected result , and a standard deviation is assumed and then you assume a "normal" statistical distribution about this mean and "roll up" pace numbers that get you from the start to the first call; then to the second call...etc..?

If any of you EquiSim guys have any insights on this, please post. Surprisingly, there were not any questions like this posed on the Equisim user board... I read a lot of them!

Thanks...

[headhawg]

Matt,

Why don't you email Nathan directly or post a message in the Equisim forums? It's a good question and I don't have your answer, but I would expect that it might be proprietary programming information anyway.

HH

[nowgoeasy]

Folks,

Since it has now been UNofficially announced on this MB, I'd like to announce the BETA release of the next version of EquiSim officially -- EquiSim ROI. My wife tells me ROI means "King" in French, but that's just coincidence <g>.

The purpose of this announcement is really to prevent "sticker shock" for everyone on this MB who has read about EquiSim or is currently using the trial version. The price of the new version will be significantly more when it is officially released. However, if you are currently trying out EquiSim you may purchase the current version and receive the new version at no additional cost. (Note: I did request an upgrade fee from people who have had the software for a longer period of time). In order to take advantage of this offer you must purchase before the new version is officially released. Between you, me, and the wind -- that will be in 1 week from today (next Sunday).

If you're interested in checking out the BETA release of the new version, there's a download link and a blurb or two here:
http://www.golganooza.com/esroi/beta/
The User's Guide, installed with the program, has more info. The web site above is just a beta site primarily for user's of previous versions.

-Handle


http://www.thorotech.com/index2.html

[PaceAdvantage]

Wow, you guys revived a thread that was almost three years old!! :eek:

[mhrussell]

HH-

I just joined the Equsim board and posted my question there as well.

Thanks..

[midnight]

You cannot sell or give away any data that's dervied from information provided directly or indirectly from Equibase, unless you have Equibase's permission. It's protected in the same way that software, music, or other electronic products are. If you could give the data away, then people could buy the data files, copy them, and send them to others or put them on Kazaa. Obviously, this would cost the vendor a lot of revenue. Like music or software, data files are sold for individual use by the purchaser only.