Lone speed among contenders

[cj]

I hear a lot about lone speed, and it is usually overbet.

A nice angle I use is when I horse is not necessarily lone speed, but among the contenders, he is lone speed.

A perfect example was today's 6th at MTH.

The 1, 3, 4, and 7 all had remarkably similiar figures, but the style told the story. The 2 was a scratch.

Here were the running styles, by my program at least:

1-PS, 3-S, 4-EP, 5-P, 6-PS, 7-PS, 8-S, and 9-E.

Most would presume the 9 would be out front, but the pace and speed figures were very weak. The 4 figured to either go wire to wire or track the 9 and blow by easily and had a HUGE running style edge over the other contenders. Now, 3-1 won't get you rich, but the $30 exacta and $66 tri over 2 of the other obvious contenders isn't bad.

Just something to keep an eye out for in the future.

[OTM Al]

That's they key for it to be sure. Lone speed when best Beyer is 70 and the rest have run 90 gets you an exciting 20 seconds and last across the line. Lone speed when all the horses have about the same speed fig is to the advantage.

[andicap]

Help!

My PC has frozen and I can't boot up. I get to the Safe Mode F8 screen, but it's still frosen. No boot disk (tho I could make one on my laptop).

Any suggestions?

[joeprunes]

Andy, this just happened to me this week.
Called my computer whiz he came over and said I had 3 viruses plus other intrussions. After 2hrs got back to normal good luck.
I asked him what causes freeze ups and he said it could be alot of different things. So I`ll stick to handicapping and let him worry about the viruses...jp

[Zaf]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
I hear a lot about lone speed, and it is usually overbet.

A nice angle I use is when I horse is not necessarily lone speed, but among the contenders, he is lone speed.

A perfect example was today's 6th at MTH.

The 1, 3, 4, and 7 all had remarkably similiar figures, but the style told the story. The 2 was a scratch.

Here were the running styles, by my program at least:

1-PS, 3-S, 4-EP, 5-P, 6-PS, 7-PS, 8-S, and 9-E.

Most would presume the 9 would be out front, but the pace and speed figures were very weak. The 4 figured to either go wire to wire or track the 9 and blow by easily and had a HUGE running style edge over the other contenders. Now, 3-1 won't get you rich, but the $30 exacta and $66 tri over 2 of the other obvious contenders isn't bad.

Just something to keep an eye out for in the future.

Thanks CJ,

Thats a lesson you taught me a few months ago, about tossing the Lone E hoss with weak Pace Figures and looking elsewhere. I handicapped this race also and thought the 4 (Lone E/P) was a super play. It looked like he would leave the 1 & 3 in the dust.

ZAFONIC

[LARRY GEORGE]

I LIKE LONE SPEED IN TURF RACES BECAUSE MOST PLAYERS
WILL BE PLAYING CLOSERS.I'VE GOTTEN SOME PRETTY GOOD PRICES FOR THIS TYPE OF HORSE ONE OF THEM WAS AT 45-1 AT HOLLYWOOD PARK.

[John]

CJ and ZAFONIC

LONE SPEED: Are you trying to figure the pace profiles of every horse that is a contender at every stage of the race, Or are you identifying horses that can dominate the pace from gate to wire.

I find the theory of lone speed fascinating and wish you would explain more on your patten of selecting the lone speed horse among the contenders.

There was a book several years ago by Bill Olmsted "The lone speed method" has anyone read it ? Was it any good ?......It was for sale on e-bay.

[Faster]

Originally posted by OTM Al
That's they key for it to be sure. Lone speed when best Beyer is 70 and the rest have run 90 gets you an exciting 20 seconds and last across the line. Lone speed when all the horses have about the same speed fig is to the advantage.

I want to agree with this, but find it somewhat problematic.
I would prefer to say that to qualify as a "lone speed angle" horse should of course be an early horse in a field of pressers and sustainers and his only prerequisite would be that he can run at par No?

[Zaf]

Originally posted by John
CJ and ZAFONIC

LONE SPEED: Are you trying to figure the pace profiles of every horse that is a contender at every stage of the race, Or are you identifying horses that can dominate the pace from gate to wire.

I find the theory of lone speed fascinating and wish you would explain more on your patten of selecting the lone speed horse among the contenders.

There was a book several years ago by Bill Olmsted "The lone speed method" has anyone read it ? Was it any good ?......It was for sale on e-bay.

John,

I am using CJ's program and as CJ noted in his post it gives a run style designation to each horse. I saw that this race was full of P-S and S types. When you see this kind of situation you say , who can shake loose from these plodders , get a comfortable lead and cruise home. There was 1 E type in the race & 1 E/P type. The E-type as CJ noted had poor pace & final figures. The E/P had a Pace Advantage and similar final figures to the plodders. I used to make a mistake and play the E horse regardless in most of these situations. Now I strutinize these horses and check the E-P types carefully.

This is a classic example that we all have seen in handicapping books.

Horse A 45 110 E-P Style
Horse B 46 110 P-S Style

Who should win this match-up ?

Of course we never really know what can happen once the gates fly open. Hope this explains it a bit. I'm sure CJ can give you a lot more insight on this subject.

ZAFONIC

[andicap]

Originally posted by John
CJ and ZAFONIC

LONE SPEED: Are you trying to figure the pace profiles of every horse that is a contender at every stage of the race, Or are you identifying horses that can dominate the pace from gate to wire.

I find the theory of lone speed fascinating and wish you would explain more on your patten of selecting the lone speed horse among the contenders.

There was a book several years ago by Bill Olmsted "The lone speed method" has anyone read it ? Was it any good ?......It was for sale on e-bay.

I bought it and returned it. It truly sucked. It wasn't really a method, just his ramblings on what he looks for that any intermediate handicapper would know.

[cj]

Here is another example from yesterday's 8th at AP. I gave this horse to my friend D2U among others in the War Room yesterday, so not so much of a redboard.

The race was at 6.5 or 7f, I don't remember. Every horse in the field was a P, PS, or S type. The 6 had my best overall performance ratings. Looking at the pace numbers, the horse also had the best 2d call pace numbers by a substantial margin. Throw in that another horse with weaker pace and speed numbers was being ridden by Rene Douglas, and the 6 was a nice $11.80 huge overlay. It really was another case of finding "hidden" lone speed. No one else was really close and the horse won for fun.

[John]

CJ, Qurin speed points and running style are made up from the horses last three race.


I asume once the above is knowed all of your calculation is from the horses last race only ........or is it from his last several races.


Andicap, thanks for your opinion on Olmsted and his book. Glad to see your computer is up and running.

[cj]

Hey John,

My EPS ratings are calculated based on the horses lifetime record, not the last race or last three. I do it a little different, if you search the board, its posted here somewhere from when I was in Saudi.

[alysheba88]

I find speed of the speed to be underbet. A bunch of speed horses are in the race, everyone anticipates a duel that doesnt happen, and the speed of the speed coasts, loose on the lead

[bobbyb]

CJ

Your absolutely right! Bel Sept 16th, Race 6, 8F T:
My contenders in A to D order: 9,6,8,3
At 5 min to post I thought I had really lost my ability to select, cause I let the toteboard into my mind:

Odds @ approx. 5 Min to Post:

9 (No Parole) was 13-1,
6 (To Go) the only Presser in the race was 35-1
8 (Love To Tango) the only E in the race was 25-1
3 (Fast Decision) S type, 3rd off Layoff was Fav @ 9/5

Looking at the race, the 8 was Lone speed - ton's the best
No Parole's Turn Time was second best, + I had him as best F3 and the only one I thought could catch Love to Tango
Fast Decision - 2nd best F3
To Go - Throw in the Presser at a mile; Thought Fragoso would actually be closer than he really was

At 3 min mark, reality set in, kicked myself, took the 9 (No Parole) to overtake Love to Tango (8) with To Go up close and the late running Fast Decison in the exactor //
Win Bet 9 (No Parole)
Exactor ($1) 9/368
Fin - 984

I was lucky - extremely Lucky! Love to Tango almost stole the race; Chavez did one hell of alot of pushing on No Parole the final 50 yds.
IMHO early speed is still a major key, if not the premier key - course as humans, sometimes were influenced by the green board, and start to doubt our own selections.

bobbyb

[John]

Bobbyb..Nice going, good hit


CJ Thanks

[Valuist]

I agree on the point about the speed of the speed. Sometimes on the surface it looks like 4 horses will fight for the lead but upon closer review one of the four has superior speed. I also believe the public anticipates way too many speed duels.

[BIG RED]

Originally posted by LARRY GEORGE
I LIKE LONE SPEED IN TURF RACES BECAUSE MOST PLAYERS
WILL BE PLAYING CLOSERS.I'VE GOTTEN SOME PRETTY GOOD PRICES FOR THIS TYPE OF HORSE ONE OF THEM WAS AT 45-1 AT HOLLYWOOD PARK.

LG, this I like also. Seems like it works better in NY, price wise. Had some huge prices at that alone myself.

[Valuist]

You should be playing AP right now. Maybe its the 100 days of wear and tear on the grass but its been pretty front running recently. And AP usually is a very closer friendly turf.

[BIG RED]

I AM:D

[kenwoodallpromos]

Speed of the speed- a horse needs to only be 2/7 of a second ahead of another to cross over and take the rail. Can be done quickly if the early lead is not too contenteous, like most tracks' 6f backside runs.

[cj]

Lone speed on turf? The 10 looks like a decent lone speed horse going 11f in the upcoming 5th at Bel...11 mtp.

[cj]

Played out to perfection...the 9 was 95-1 and EP, the 10 9-2 as an E, noone else with any speed. The 10 tracked the 9 til the stretch, took over in the lane getting first jump, then held off the hard charging 11 to the tune of $11.80. Not technically "lone speed," but certainly "lone speed among contenders!"

By the way, speed of the speed can be a nice angle on the dirt, I wouldn't play it on the turf. Several speed horses are doom.

[Valuist]

Agree: re the speed of speed on turf. Whole different ballgame than on the main track.

If no rain occurs in the next 24 hours at AP, I think Gin and Sin is in a great spot. He figures to lay 2nd, off the GLD shipper. He's got the 2 hole and a patient turf savvy rider in Blanc. He should save ground on the 1st turn and then lay just off the GLD horse who doesn't figure to last. I hoping Honor in War, who beat a weak Gr. 1 field in 2003 takes a lot of money. He's very vulnerable over this speed favoring course.

[betchatoo]

You'll get your wish about no rain. Good luck!

[LARRY GEORGE]

HERE IS MY LONE EARLY HORSES FOR A FEW TRACKS
ARLINGTON PARK
RACE # 1
TITLE SHOT
RACE # 9
BONANZA JELLYBEAN MIGHT BE OUTCLASSED BUT HIGH ODDS
RACE # 10
MISTOFFELEES
BAY MEADOWS
RACE # 9
SHOTGUN PROPOSAL

[cj]

Originally posted by Valuist
Agree: re the speed of speed on turf. Whole different ballgame than on the main track.

If no rain occurs in the next 24 hours at AP, I think Gin and Sin is in a great spot. He figures to lay 2nd, off the GLD shipper. He's got the 2 hole and a patient turf savvy rider in Blanc. He should save ground on the 1st turn and then lay just off the GLD horse who doesn't figure to last. I hoping Honor in War, who beat a weak Gr. 1 field in 2003 takes a lot of money. He's very vulnerable over this speed favoring course.

Difference of opinion here... I think Gin and Sin has little chance as he will face stiff pressure from the 8, who despite 30-1 ML, I don't see as being overmatched.

[cj]

The 8 did just enough to doom the 2 at 2-1, nice effort to only lose in the last few jumps though.

[cj]

2 Britt's Jule looks like lone speed among contenders in the Super Derby Saturday. He used the last race as a prep for this one, is better than the 3 South Africa, and the rest don't have the early zip.