SQ, PA - This is why I don't beleive in Polls.

[Secretariat]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1963&e=1&u=/afp/20040916/ts_alt_afp/us_vote_poll

[GameTheory]

Many of them used a flawed methodology. Zogby has been the most accurate the last two elections. Bush never had a "real" 11 point lead, only a couple of points. The best way to look at polls is not to look at the exact points, but to compare it to a previous poll FROM THE SAME POLLSTER. If you look at Fox, Zogby, Time, etc they have vastly different "final scores" but they all show things swinging Bush's way 5-10 points over the last month.

[ElKabong]

I believe Zogby's best as well. He was on natl tv the week after the RNC when GWB had the big lead. Zogby's quote; "it's still Kerry's election to lose", and after hearing his reasons, I believe it.

Problem for Kerry is he's doing all he can to lose it. If anyone saw his appearance in front of the natl guard today, he got a COLD reception. Few clapped when he made his entrance and no one laughed at his opening Las Vegas/ D.C. joke....He has to make a connection w/ the people (per Zogby), trouble is he has no clue as to how to do it. It's just not in him.

[Secretariat]

Originally posted by GameTheory
Many of them used a flawed methodology. Zogby has been the most accurate the last two elections. Bush never had a "real" 11 point lead, only a couple of points. The best way to look at polls is not to look at the exact points, but to compare it to a previous poll FROM THE SAME POLLSTER. If you look at Fox, Zogby, Time, etc they have vastly different "final scores" but they all show things swinging Bush's way 5-10 points over the last month.

This is a legit question. Has there ever been a follow up analysis on the successful predictors of polls?

Both for the polling group. (i.e. is Harris better than Pew or Zogby or Gallup, etc.)

And two, how successful have September polls been in predicting the November results?

Honestly, I don't really know. Some of the people here are into polls so I'm curious.

Sort of like tote watchers betting early? Don't know.

Lastly, does Vegas offer odds on the election. If so, who does those odds, and how accurate have they been?

[sq764]

Looks like pres election is off limits to bets..

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/08/25/quest.vegas/