Bill Cullen's Prime Bets for Thurs, 9/16/2004

[Bill Cullen]

3rd at Belmont-#7

2nd at Pimlico-#9
4th at Pimlico-#7

3rd at Arlington-#2

8th at Fairplex-#10
9th at Fairplex-#3

5th at Calder-#6

2nd at Monmouth-#7

[andicap]

so how did this rating method do Wednesday or do you want to wait until you get 100 races under your belt and gives the total then?

I'm always curious as to how these things work out.

[cj]

I'm always curious too, but I am too lazy to look up the tracks I don't follow!

[Fastracehorse]

You have alot of guts picking Fpx - I find it hard to get clean trips in the 'Bull Ring' :)

fffastt

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by andicap
so how did this rating method do Wednesday or do you want to wait until you get 100 races under your belt and gives the total then?

I'm always curious as to how these things work out.

Not so great, although i was using Brisnet speed figures with only seven or eight races in the pp's from the OTB booklet rather than ten full races and the Beyers. I usually use the Form.

In my very first reserach of this rating method against a hundred races at Delaware from May 2004 into July 2004 (using the Racing Form), I nailed 30 winners and just managed to show a postive ROI (literally $201 + change). There was no huge longshot; the highest winner was 6/1. 10 out of the 30 winners were 5/2 or higher (at a 30% win rate, 5/2 odds becomes the minimum threshold for value). Anyway, the initial results were promising and correlated very well with what I would have expected from my past experience if I had handicapped the 100 races comprehensively but not in a systematized form.

This rating method is by far the most important thing I've ever tested personally because it is my attempt to quantify as many of the handicapping factors I have used over the years in my comprehensive approach to handicapping as well as including two wrinkles that I developed over the years and have used with considerable success. This rating method is fairly comprehensive although not toally so. For example it does not cover pace (although it's quite easy to subject the highest rated horse to a simple pace analysis). The rating method does cover the following:

speed/pars/class/distance/surface/early speed/current form

More to follow,

Bill C

P.S. - Most of my prime bets would be selected by the rating method I'm testing as well.

[kingfin66]

Bill,

Have you ever considered starting a database? It seems as though it would be worth it for a guy like you who likes to create and test systems. I dabbled in testing the Coffee Break Millionaire system (waste of $$$) and found going through the racing form extremely tedious.

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by kingfin66
Bill,

Have you ever considered starting a database? It seems as though it would be worth it for a guy like you who likes to create and test systems. I dabbled in testing the Coffee Break Millionaire system (waste of $$$) and found going through the racing form extremely tedious.

I've given it some thought. I know how to program and write SQL. Time is still a problem for me, though, as I work long hours and take care of two children and a chronically sick wife.

It's still easier for me to check about a hundred races or so in a preliminary test and then hope someone is motivated enough to pick up on the research. So far, at least two folks on this board have found two of my systems profitable through their extended testing including one that's been profitable after fours years and over 800 playable races.


Bill C