Mahoning Valley bad beat yesterday

[ZippyChippy423]

Started a nice pick 3 yesterday singling a 15-1 shot in race 2. In the second leg (race 3) I had four pieces two of which were gate scratches. Post 1 & 7 scratched minutes apart although having nothing to do with each other. UNUSUALLY MHV does not give a consolation in the pick 3 rather assigns it to the post Time favorite. Well now I have two horses that go off at cofavorites the 2 and 5 horse. Naturally the 3 horse wins and I’m left with nothing. The 50 cent pick three paid 700.00 with a 15-1, 3-1. and even money. All of the money from the two gate scratches went to the post time fav which lost thus inflating the payoff. Why don’t they have a consolation ? Sour grapes.

[sour grapes]

dont know what to tell you,tough beat.we are in the 21st century and racing uses 100 year old technology to move millions of dollars.

[Threechimes]

Started a nice pick 3 yesterday singling a 15-1 shot in race 2. In the second leg (race 3) I had four pieces two of which were gate scratches. Post 1 & 7 scratched minutes apart although having nothing to do with each other. UNUSUALLY MHV does not give a consolation in the pick 3 rather assigns it to the post Time favorite. Well now I have two horses that go off at cofavorites the 2 and 5 horse. Naturally the 3 horse wins and I’m left with nothing. The 50 cent pick three paid 700.00 with a 15-1, 3-1. and even money. All of the money from the two gate scratches went to the post time fav which lost thus inflating the payoff. Why don’t they have a consolation ? Sour grapes.

I play pick 3's and 4's . I was victim to this recently as well but it is nothing new for me. Last week at Remington my single in the first leg hit and I was 5x5x6 in the final three legs . In 2nd leg I had two late scratches and now was x3 on the favorite who consequently ran up the track and my other two finished 2nd and 4th . I am not so much mad that I got stuck with favorite as I am it changed the whole complexity of the race hence lowering my chances of advancing .

There must be a better way to handle gate scratches ?

[ZippyChippy423]

Most of the industry assigns the post time favorite on pick 4,5 and 6’s when the late scratches occur. Mahoning to my knowledge is the only track to not have a pick 3 consolation. I figured out based on my tickets yesterday I would have ended up with at least 100.00 in consolations. That’s what sucks.

[mountainman]

Love betting this place. One week focused there-half my winter paid for. As I've posted before, this is the easiest track in America to beat. Just handicap, stay alert, and pounce when the public makes a glaring error. It won't take long.


I am locked in now and much enjoy going back to my roots as a player. It feels soooo liberating to not see the prices on my selections drop.

On a side note, the surface has some intrinsic quirks that can give astute handicappers an edge. Subtle things, but worth the time needed to process them.

Would like to hear feedback on your experiences there, fellow board members.

Be well, guys. And happy thanksgiving.

[Afleet]

Love betting this place. One week focused there-half my winter paid for. As I've posted before, this is the easiest track in America to beat. Just handicap, stay alert, and pounce when the public makes a glaring error. It won't take long.


I am locked in now and much enjoy going back to my roots as a player. It feels soooo liberating to not see the prices on my selections drop.

On a side note, the surface has some intrinsic quirks that can give astute handicappers an edge. Subtle things, but worth the time needed to process them.

Would like to hear feedback on your experiences there, fellow board members.

Be well, guys. And happy thanksgiving.

hope everyone is ok at the mountain

[mountainman]

Thank you, sir.

[ZippyChippy423]

Love betting this place. One week focused there-half my winter paid for. As I've posted before, this is the easiest track in America to beat. Just handicap, stay alert, and pounce when the public makes a glaring error. It won't take long.


I am locked in now and much enjoy going back to my roots as a player. It feels soooo liberating to not see the prices on my selections drop.

On a side note, the surface has some intrinsic quirks that can give astute handicappers an edge. Subtle things, but worth the time needed to process them.

Would like to hear feedback on your experiences there, fellow board members.

Be well, guys. And happy thanksgiving.

Yeah i consider myself a pretty good handicapper at Mahoning but when you have multiple 70-1 shots win on the same card things get a bit dicey.

[mountainman]

Yeah i consider myself a pretty good handicapper at Mahoning but when you have multiple 70-1 shots win on the same card things get a bit dicey.

At least they weren't never 4 geldings running as mdn fillies ( at 50-1 and winning by 10) LOL. The legacy of that epic moment is the identifier REchecking each winner's tat-AFTER the race. Watch the guy in the ballcap holding the clipboard. He has to give stews a thumbs up before they can post official sign. That's Danny Hamilton. I trained him. One of the stews he signals is Lori Dinoto. I trained her, too. Both excellent officials.

[mountainman]

Yeah i consider myself a pretty good handicapper at Mahoning but when you have multiple 70-1 shots win on the same card things get a bit dicey.

BTW..Did you catch my anecdote abt your namesake when Jason Beem interviewed me for his podcast a few weeks ago?? I had never told it before in public.

[rrpic6]

A fantastic card is slated at MVRC on Monday Nov. 19. 10 Races with an average of almost 11 horses entered to run in each race. The total purses for the day will be close to a half million dollars. The Hollywood Gaming Mahoning Distaff has a 75K purse and The Steel Valley Sprint's purse is $250K. Joe Bravo, Tyler Gaffalione, Channing Hill, Eurico Da Silva, Brian Hernandez, and Jose Lezcano are all named to ride that day.


After a speed favoring bias for the meet's 1st 2 weeks ended, a day of illogical longshots lit up the totes. Since then, the track has played favorably to all. Horses sitting just off the pace seemed to have a slight advantage the last 2 days. That all could change of course. Freezing rain, followed by a cold steady rain, followed by about 2 inches of snow will make Saturday's card very interesting. It should be dry and fast by Monday. SO SEND IT IN!


RR

[rispa]

Love betting this place. One week focused there-half my winter paid for. As I've posted before, this is the easiest track in America to beat. Just handicap, stay alert, and pounce when the public makes a glaring error. It won't take long.


I am locked in now and much enjoy going back to my roots as a player. It feels soooo liberating to not see the prices on my selections drop.

On a side note, the surface has some intrinsic quirks that can give astute handicappers an edge. Subtle things, but worth the time needed to process them.

Would like to hear feedback on your experiences there, fellow board members.

Be well, guys. And happy thanksgiving.




What the heck is an intrinsic quirk? Could you give an example of one??

[ZippyChippy423]

BTW..Did you catch my anecdote abt your namesake when Jason Beem interviewed me for his podcast a few weeks ago?? I had never told it before in public.

I honestly don’t know who you are but would love to listen in on some horse racing podcasts . What are the better ones around? Can you provide a link to yours ? Also since I see you are connected to Mountaineer maybe you can answer me a question. The Mountaineer commentators ( I won’t mention names because I don’t want to offend ) seem to have been doing that gig for quite some time. Would it be unfair of me to say they are the most boring and monotone commentators ever in horse racing? I love Mountaineer horse racing but these two honestly bring zero excitement to the game. Tampa Bay had a similar issue with Margo for years and years then they replaced her with “ Shades”. It just cracks me up. Some of these tracks are stuck in the 70’s and 80’s and have a different audience since all those fans have been dying off.

[jimmyb]

I honestly don’t know who you are but would love to listen in on some horse racing podcasts . What are the better ones around? Can you provide a link to yours ? Also since I see you are connected to Mountaineer maybe you can answer me a question. The Mountaineer commentators ( I won’t mention names because I don’t want to offend ) seem to have been doing that gig for quite some time. Would it be unfair of me to say they are the most boring and monotone commentators ever in horse racing? I love Mountaineer horse racing but these two honestly bring zero excitement to the game. Tampa Bay had a similar issue with Margo for years and years then they replaced her with “ Shades”. It just cracks me up. Some of these tracks are stuck in the 70’s and 80’s and have a different audience since all those fans have been dying off.


Mark and Nancy do a great job providing insight regarding trainers, owners, shippers and the inner workings of the Mountaineer backstretch. Mark has incredible recall and seems to remember every horses past performance.

[castaway01]

I honestly don’t know who you are but would love to listen in on some horse racing podcasts . What are the better ones around? Can you provide a link to yours ? Also since I see you are connected to Mountaineer maybe you can answer me a question. The Mountaineer commentators ( I won’t mention names because I don’t want to offend ) seem to have been doing that gig for quite some time. Would it be unfair of me to say they are the most boring and monotone commentators ever in horse racing? I love Mountaineer horse racing but these two honestly bring zero excitement to the game. Tampa Bay had a similar issue with Margo for years and years then they replaced her with “ Shades”. It just cracks me up. Some of these tracks are stuck in the 70’s and 80’s and have a different audience since all those fans have been dying off.

"I honestly don't know who you are..."

followed

"they are the most boring and monotone commentators ever in horse racing"

Troll warning, where is my siren?:ThmbDown:

[ZippyChippy423]

Mark and Nancy do a great job providing insight regarding trainers, owners, shippers and the inner workings of the Mountaineer backstretch. Mark has incredible recall and seems to remember every horses past performance.

I agree that they obviously know their sh@t but it is the presentation that can be worked on. Appearance is everything and not just physical. BTW I follow their picks and they don’t really do that well. They know the game but just don’t pick a lot of winners. It’s one of the toughest night tracks to handicap even in a short field. Mark comes up with angles for every horse to win before each race so that whatever horse wins he comes back after the race and says “ I told you so and so could etc”. Most of the time he picks wrong but always takes credit for what he pointed out before each race to make himself look good. We will have to agree to disagree on the presentation of these two.

[rrpic6]

I honestly don’t know who you are but would love to listen in on some horse racing podcasts . What are the better ones around? Can you provide a link to yours ? Also since I see you are connected to Mountaineer maybe you can answer me a question. The Mountaineer commentators ( I won’t mention names because I don’t want to offend ) seem to have been doing that gig for quite some time. Would it be unfair of me to say they are the most boring and monotone commentators ever in horse racing? I love Mountaineer horse racing but these two honestly bring zero excitement to the game. Tampa Bay had a similar issue with Margo for years and years then they replaced her with “ Shades”. It just cracks me up. Some of these tracks are stuck in the 70’s and 80’s and have a different audience since all those fans have been dying off.


Really? Did Clark Kent's glasses also fool you?


RR

[mountainman]

"I honestly don't know who you are..."

followed

"they are the most boring and monotone commentators ever in horse racing"

Troll warning, where is my siren?:ThmbDown:

lol....I've been knocked for being toooo enthusiastic..but never for being dull..this guy is carrying somebody else's water. have a pretty good idea who is pulling his strings...but won't go there...his post just doesn't pass the smell test...and i don't slay trolls...he says he has noooooo idea who i am..and then coincidentally begins knocking mark patterson.....ru kidding me??? did he think that would fool a corleone?? lol..

[mountainman]

A fantastic card is slated at MVRC on Monday Nov. 19. 10 Races with an average of almost 11 horses entered to run in each race. The total purses for the day will be close to a half million dollars. The Hollywood Gaming Mahoning Distaff has a 75K purse and The Steel Valley Sprint's purse is $250K. Joe Bravo, Tyler Gaffalione, Channing Hill, Eurico Da Silva, Brian Hernandez, and Jose Lezcano are all named to ride that day.


After a speed favoring bias for the meet's 1st 2 weeks ended, a day of illogical longshots lit up the totes. Since then, the track has played favorably to all. Horses sitting just off the pace seemed to have a slight advantage the last 2 days. That all could change of course. Freezing rain, followed by a cold steady rain, followed by about 2 inches of snow will make Saturday's card very interesting. It should be dry and fast by Monday. SO SEND IT IN!


RR

When I dove in a week ago I found the track fair (with the slight caveat that wide closers had little chance the first several days I played), but that certainly changed yesterday when the rail played somewhat dead.

Have feeling the surface was slowly reverting to its basic nature: slightly better for slightly wide trips around the turn....but also no haven for sweeping kickers.

Hope all is well for you, Ron.

[mountainman]

What the heck is an intrinsic quirk? Could you give an example of one??

Basically, a dry mvr surfce tends to fvor wide(ish) stalkers that bid aggressively on the turn. Oddly enough, inside closers, or those that find a ground-saving seam also do well. Sometimes it really seems like the footing is dead rail on the far turn, but rail favoring through the late stages.

Also, all things being equal, wide closers lose lots of momentum off the final turn and must rebid, unlike at some tracks where they keep charging forward despite ground loss. The jocks do complain there of inadequate banking on the turns.

[Zman179]

Also since I see you are connected to Mountaineer maybe you can answer me a question. The Mountaineer commentators ( I won’t mention names because I don’t want to offend ) seem to have been doing that gig for quite some time. Would it be unfair of me to say they are the most boring and monotone commentators ever in horse racing? I love Mountaineer horse racing but these two honestly bring zero excitement to the game.

Dude...

I mean, dude. :rolleyes:

[ZippyChippy423]

lol....I've been knocked for being toooo enthusiastic..but never for being dull..this guy is carrying somebody else's water. have a pretty good idea who is pulling his strings...but won't go there...his post just doesn't pass the smell test...and i don't slay trolls...he says he has noooooo idea who i am..and then coincidentally begins knocking mark patterson.....ru kidding me??? did he think that would fool a corleone?? lol..

You can believe me or not I honestly did not know who you were. Now i know . If you are offended by my construcitive critisism so be it. Too enthusiastic ? r u kidding me?

[mountainman]

Mark and Nancy do a great job providing insight regarding trainers, owners, shippers and the inner workings of the Mountaineer backstretch. Mark has incredible recall and seems to remember every horses past performance.

tx, sir. I was once named one of america's top 10 racing analysts. and america is very big country.

[ZippyChippy423]

lol....I've been knocked for being toooo enthusiastic..but never for being dull..this guy is carrying somebody else's water. have a pretty good idea who is pulling his strings...but won't go there...his post just doesn't pass the smell test...and i don't slay trolls...he says he has noooooo idea who i am..and then coincidentally begins knocking mark patterson.....ru kidding me??? did he think that would fool a corleone?? lol..

You can believe me or not I honestly did not know who you were. Now i know . If you are offended by my construcitive critisism so be it. Too enthusiastic ? r u kidding me?

[castaway01]

Basically, a dry mvr surfce tends to fvor wide(ish) stalkers that bid aggressively on the turn. Oddly enough, inside closers, or those that find a ground-saving seam also do well. Sometimes it really seems like the footing is dead rail on the far turn, but rail favoring through the late stages.

Also, all things being equal, wide closers lose lots of momentum off the final turn and must rebid, unlike at some tracks where they keep charging forward despite ground loss. The jocks do complain there of inadequate banking on the turns.

I will say though that I have never placed a bet on Mahoning Valley in my life, but after this thread I'm actually going to take a closer look. Thanks to you and RRpic for the interesting info.

[mountainman]

You can believe me or not I honestly did not know who you were. Now i know . If you are offended by my construcitive critisism so be it. Too enthusiastic ? r u kidding me?

Sir, anybody in the public eye is offended by ANY criticism...constructive, or otherwise. But since 95% of the feedback i have gotten (for years) has been praise, maybe I AM overly touchy when somebody just doesn't dig what I do.

So, be well, and best of luck betting Mahoning. Stick with it.

[mountainman]

Basically, a dry mvr surfce tends to fvor wide(ish) stalkers that bid aggressively on the turn. Oddly enough, inside closers, or those that find a ground-saving seam also do well. Sometimes it really seems like the footing is dead rail on the far turn, but rail favoring through the late stages.

Also, all things being equal, wide closers lose lots of momentum off the final turn and must rebid, unlike at some tracks where they keep charging forward despite ground loss. The jocks do complain there of inadequate banking on the turns.

*favor

[mountainman]

I will say though that I have never placed a bet on Mahoning Valley in my life, but after this thread I'm actually going to take a closer look. Thanks to you and RRpic for the interesting info.

From what I know of you, my prediction is you will do well, sir.

fwiw, your conviction and individuality make your posts must read for me.

[Robert Fischer]

"I honestly don't know who you are..."

followed

"they are the most boring and monotone commentators ever in horse racing"

Troll warning, where is my siren?:ThmbDown:

not sure how he is still afforded membership

[timtam]

I think getting the Post time favorite when one or more of your horses is

scratched is one of the worst conditions for betting Pick 3's etc. Like we

say at the OTB if I wanted the favorite I would have put him in my Pick 3.

I'm for consolation all the way. When I see a horse scratched and they

announce you get the Post time fav I head to the window and bet something

else. Anything else because that PTF is going to finish up the track FOR SURE!

Worst situation to be in and there are many more that are very close.:bang:

[Andrick]

Basically, a dry mvr surfce tends to fvor wide(ish) stalkers that bid aggressively on the turn.

Yes. This was especially true in late Jan to early Feb of last year's meet, Mark. They had to cancel about a week worth of racing dates due to the track freezing, and once they got back to running, horses getting that trip from an outside gate while sitting mid-pack or better early were winning at an incredible rate and at decent to very good prices. Many times the exacta was made up of these types during that period of time as well. If I'm remembering correctly, it played that way for a good two weeks after the track thawed out. The track then did a complete 180 after that (after some rain or wet snow over a couple of days I do believe) and played heavily to the inside path for an extended period of time after that.

It's something to keep an eye on if the same situation presents itself this winter.

[mountainman]

Yes. This was especially true in late Jan to early Feb of last year's meet, Mark. They had to cancel about a week worth of racing dates due to the track freezing, and once they got back to running, horses getting that trip from an outside gate while sitting mid-pack or better early were winning at an incredible rate and at decent to very good prices. Many times the exacta was made up of these types during that period of time as well. If I'm remembering correctly, it played that way for a good two weeks after the track thawed out. The track then did a complete 180 after that (after some rain or wet snow over a couple of days I do believe) and played heavily to the inside path for an extended period of time after that.

It's something to keep an eye on if the same situation presents itself this winter.

tx for the response, sir..just for kicks, i'll check my bias notes ( i keep them on my smart phone) from last year to see if we concurred on the transformation.......I do think that maintenance measures taken to combat extreme weather are usully more responsible than the extreme weather for temporary biases...you seem very sharp,,stay in touch..ok??

btw..mahoning has a different track-super this year, so that might alter things from last season........much like when mountaineer's super informally retired two years , or so, ago..and his underlings proved much better at maintaining a fair surface, even eradicating mnr's notorious dead-rail stigma

[Andrick]

tx for the response, sir..just for kicks, i'll check my bias notes ( i keep them on my smart phone) from last year to see if we concurred on the transformation.......I do think that maintenance measures taken to combat extreme weather are usully more responsible than the extreme weather for temporary biases...you seem very sharp,,stay in touch..ok??

btw..mahoning has a different track-super this year, so that might alter things from last season........much like when mountaineer's super informally retired two years , or so, ago..and his underlings proved much better at maintaining a fair surface, even eradicating mnr's notorious dead-rail stigma

Cheers Mark. If it's not too much trouble for you I would certainly appreciate you sharing any information you have saved from that time regarding any biases at the track. I played it as having that bias at the time and had a lot of success doing so. But it also could have simply been me landing on logical horses who went off at overlaid prices.

I do share your sentiments on the 1st page in regards to how great the track is to play, though. Next to Woodbine it's become my 2nd favourite track to play, and I've spent the last year trying to talk it up to any friend of mine who already is or has any interest in handicapping. Lots of great opportunities present themselves there. Perhaps moreso than any other track I've played with even a little bit of regularity.

[rrpic6]

14 3 Year Old's are entered today for Mahoning Valley's richest race. Nationally known Trainers Ness, Stall, Norm McKnight, McPeek, Victoria Oliver and others, along with local Trainers Gary Johnson and Mike Rone are among the many with a chance in this 250K 6 Furlong event. Channing Hill, Joe Bravo, Eurico Da Silva, Tyler Gaffalione, B J Hernandez, Jose Lezcano and Frankie Pennington are named to ride. Keep an eye on local jock Luis Colon. He's aboard #:3: Machismo for Loooch Racing and Johnson. Both horse and jock have immense talent but have yet to shine in the national spotlight.
Other contenders IMO:
#:12: Honorable Treasure: Much improved with blinks and B J in saddle.
#:5: Wyatt's Town: Only true 6 furlong specialist on 4 race winning streak.
#:1: Cowboy Creed: Deep closer will be flying late. Rail draw hurts chances.
#:6: Trigger Warning: Last win came at Presque Isle. Overmatched vs Gr 1's.
#:7: Bobby's Wicked One: Lone win came in debut MSW at Fairgrounds at 2.
#:10: Still Having Fun: Won the Woody Stephens at 7F in June. A notch below


Good Luck to all!


RR

[mountainman]

14 3 Year Old's are entered today for Mahoning Valley's richest race. Nationally known Trainers Ness, Stall, Norm McKnight, McPeek, Victoria Oliver and others, along with local Trainers Gary Johnson and Mike Rone are among the many with a chance in this 250K 6 Furlong event. Channing Hill, Joe Bravo, Eurico Da Silva, Tyler Gaffalione, B J Hernandez, Jose Lezcano and Frankie Pennington are named to ride. Keep an eye on local jock Luis Colon. He's aboard #:3: Machismo for Loooch Racing and Johnson. Both horse and jock have immense talent but have yet to shine in the national spotlight.
Other contenders IMO:
#:12: Honorable Treasure: Much improved with blinks and B J in saddle.
#:5: Wyatt's Town: Only true 6 furlong specialist on 4 race winning streak.
#:1: Cowboy Creed: Deep closer will be flying late. Rail draw hurts chances.
#:6: Trigger Warning: Last win came at Presque Isle. Overmatched vs Gr 1's.
#:7: Bobby's Wicked One: Lone win came in debut MSW at Fairgrounds at 2.
#:10: Still Having Fun: Won the Woody Stephens at 7F in June. A notch below


Good Luck to all!


RR

Nice commentary....Given the motherlode of zip in this race, I would be surprised if one or two of the speeds don't scratch............and just to piggyback your short profiles: The 12 horse took too many tries to clear the low alw condition, but the figs on two of his last three make him a player..and a player who can pass horses and gets first run on the deep closers..my questions about him involve the sharp regression tht follows every peak effort, and I wonder why a horse that ran so fast (on at least one occasion) as a two yr old hasn't done more as a three year old..tricky call................the 6 horse, a pace-oriented router, tries a different game and will have to close..i do suspect the ohio derby was his best effort, which could be relevant, since the horse lives and trains in ohio, a state still somewhat notorious for permissive med policies................also, i think the 10 horse. who has consistently posted this field's best numbers, is better than his recent form..a wide early move compromised him last time, and i don't think those full routes, even at one-turn, really played to his strength..in addition, the competition in some of his pivotal races was lethal...i like him best in late mode, and the setup rocks...............to summarize, unless late scratches alter the pace scenario, or the surface proves extremely speed, or rail, favoring, my main players are numbers 6 and 10...

[cj]

nice commentary....Given the motherlode of zip in this race, I would be surprised if one or two of the speeds don't scratch............and just to piggyback your short profiles: The 12 horse took tooo many tries to clear the low alw condition, but the figs on two of his last three make him a player..and a player who can pass horses and gets first run on the deep closers..my questions about him involve the sharp regression tht follows every peak effort, and I wonder why a horse that ran so fast (on at least one occasion) as a two yr old hasn't done more as a three year old..tricky call................the six horse, a pace-oriented router, tries a different game and will have to close..i do suspect the ohio derby was his best effort, which could be relevant, since the horse lives and trains in ohio, a state still somewhat notorious for permissive med policies................also, i think the 10 horse is better than his recent form..a wide early move compromised him last time, and i don't think a full route, even at one-turn, really plays to his strength..in addition, the competition in some of his pivotal races was lethal...i like him best in late mode, and the setup rocks...............to summarize, unless late scratches alter the pace scenario, or the surface proves extremely speed, or rail, favoring, my main players are numbers 6 and 10...

:4: and :12: scratched.

[Robert Fischer]

Maybe 5,6,7 years ago, before my heart-surgery, Mountainman sent me a handicapping piece he had written. It was nice. He sent it via snail mail to my residence (at that time in steel country Western Pa.).

Don't remember the exact content per se. Maybe it was about condition-claimers? But I remember reading it, and re-reading it, and it being a useful tool. I was doing some small bridge-jumping back then, and it was a source of pride when my ADW sent me a letter to cease and desist.

[mountainman]

Maybe 5,6,7 years ago, before my heart-surgery, Mountainman sent me a handicapping piece he had written. It was nice. He sent it via snail mail to my residence (at that time in steel country Western Pa.).

Don't remember the exact content per se. Maybe it was about condition-claimers? But I remember reading it, and re-reading it, and it being a useful tool. I was doing some small bridge-jumping back then, and it was a source of pride when my ADW sent me a letter to cease and desist.

It was a piece for horse player magazne about sizing up small-track shippers. While one or two of my assigned articles ( profiling the BC juvenile fillies turf, for instance) strayed from my street cred, the one you mention was right in my wheelhouse and probably the most insightful.

btw...you do realize I am also a western pa. boy by origin and upbringing??? LOL..

[Robert Fischer]

It was a piece for horse player magazne about sizing up small-track shippers. While one or two of my assigned articles ( profiling the BC juvenile fillies turf, for instance) strayed from my street cred, the one you mention was right in my wheelhouse and probably the most insightful.

btw...you do realize I am also a western pa. boy by origin and upbringing??? LOL..

That rings a bell.

Thought you were from the area. Father's side from Donora. Grandfather worked in the steel mill.

[bello]

I cannot resist handicapping threads. Looks like rain in the area so likely slop and I have no idea how that plays out the track bias. There is an abundance of speed in this race, and unlike a NYRA ( just a touch of trolling in guess) I expect the speed crew to all go hard early.

That leaves me with the 1,6,7 as the classiest or up and coming closers. Boxing 167 in the tri and exactas

Thanks Mountainman and RR for the insight. Mountainman, is the Mountain done for the year?

[mountainman]

Thanks Mountainman and RR for the insight. Mountainman, is the Mountain done for the year?

Resume racing this sunday. 14 makeup days at 8 races per card entailing 5 day per week in dec.

[bello]

Resume racing this sunday. 14 makeup days at 8 races per card entailing 5 day per week in dec.

Thanks M....BTW agree, I need to add your 10 to race 7 horizontals. Eill use 1-6-7-10 as there are singles leading up to race 7. Just getting to races 8-10

[metro]

also, i think the 10 horse. who has consistently posted this field's best numbers, is better than his recent form..a wide early move compromised him last time, and i don't think those full routes, even at one-turn, really played to his strength..in addition, the competition in some of his pivotal races was lethal...i like him best in late mode, and the setup rocks...............to summarize, unless late scratches alter the pace scenario, or the surface proves extremely speed, or rail, favoring, my main players are numbers 6 and 10...

I played Still Having Fun in the Cherokee Run and was surprised at how much speed J.Ortiz asked this horse for out of the gate, it completely took away the horse's late kick. With plenty of speed signed on today surely they will go back to a more true stalking trip. Would love to get 9-2!

Welles Crowther is a horse who could round out a tri or super at a big number, his form is dirtied up a bit from some troubled trips and fighting some bias.

[bello]

How fearless is Luis Quioines. Cheap claimer and he darts through a small rail opening in race 3.
I am sure he makes a nice living on the Mountaineer/Mahoning circuit but can certainly fit in the major leagues.

[bello]

This should be a no brainer DQ on the 9 race 4...What is taking them so long?

[lamboguy]

i am going with #14 NAVY COMMANDER


he is training great and aways runs good.

the horse i don't like is #7 BOBBY'S WICKED ONE. the other horses coming out of the race he just ran have done little.










i

[Robert Fischer]

Toss: :5:, :10:

Contenders: :2:, :7:, :14:

Long Shot: :3:
Underlay contender: :6:

Interesting race. If the :5:, :6:, :10: take a ton of money, I'll make a wager.

Slightly concerned that the :14: will be wide, but if he cruises off of a hot pace, he can contend.

:2: should be right in the teeth of that pace. He looks like he may be able to shake them off, but you never know if the pace will hurt him.

:7: is cool, because I like him AND he'll benefit from a hard pace that might hurt my :2:. I think he'll run a good race. I'm of the opinion that he's been stalking in a few speed-favoring paces, and that he's better than his paper form. I'm hoping/guessing that the post time odds will drift up from his ML.

Not a big fan of :6:, but he could get a piece. He seems to be tough.

[mountainman]

There HAD to be a pace scratch, and the four's defection could impact. Also, wide rallies are very much against the grain. To win from behind, a rider MUST save ground or find a seam.

[jay68802]

What the heck


:6:

:10:

:11:

:9:

[jay68802]

There HAD to be a pace scratch, and the four's defection could impact. Also, wide rallies are very much against the grain. To win from behind, a rider MUST save ground or find a seam.

Got to say, my friends and I have spent many nights listening to you at the track. We, of course, would laugh or agree with your picks, but always enjoyed doing it.

[Robert Fischer]

Sounded like :6: held him off... Twinspires got 'choppy' couldn't see...

[bello]

I didnt handicap the pace scenario well at all but still got the ex and tri and live to the 7 in the p3 . Good whether they honor the objection or not.

[mountainman]

YES!!!!

[jay68802]

YES!!!!

:ThmbUp:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2iIq3zaP6k

[mountainman]

:ThmbUp:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2iIq3zaP6k

Back at ya, sir

[mountainman]

Trigger Warning vanned. Left front. Reportedly serious.

[jay68802]

F#$K. I hate this.

[mountainman]

I didnt handicap the pace scenario well at all but still got the ex and tri and live to the 7 in the p3 . Good whether they honor the objection or not.

Nice. Was murky to gauge how much sprint zip Trigger Warning might possess. Only that probable improvement since his near surprise in the ohio derby had been camouflaged in brutally ambitious spots that found him running better than expected. Plus, as a Rone trainee residing in Ohio, where he ran the breakout race, this was a home game for Trigger Warning.

[bello]

Nice. Was murky to gauge how much sprint zip Trigger Warning might possess. Only that probable improvement since his near surprise in the ohio derby had been camouflaged in brutally ambitious spots that found him running better than expected. Plus, as a Rone trainee residing in Ohio, where he ran the breakout race, this was a home game for Trigger Warning.
Was shocked but pleasantly surprised to see him on the front end so easily. Class prevailed, as it usually does. Horses know when they are surrounded by lesser talented talented animals and vice versa.

[bello]

Race 8 kept me from sweeping the horizontals. I son't hit the all button so would up with a single on the 7 and just missed.

Need 6 or 7 race 10 to close out with the DD. I hope they know they are "less cheap" than their compatriots

[bello]

Do they fine trainers for frivolous claims of foul?

[castaway01]

Was shocked but pleasantly surprised to see him on the front end so easily. Class prevailed, as it usually does. Horses know when they are surrounded by lesser talented talented animals and vice versa.

Isn't that a self-fulfilling prophecy though, since any time a horse with back class wins you can say the horse won on class, and when they don't win you can say their form changed?


My thoughts right now are with the horse though. Terrible ending to the day, and the worst part of this game.

[bello]

Isn't that a self-fulfilling prophecy though, since any time a horse with back class wins you can say the horse won on class, and when they don't win you can say their form changed?


My thoughts right now are with the horse though. Terrible ending to the day, and the worst part of this game.
That is correct. The way he went to the lead and outran the speed horses that were quicker on paper was where his class shined and theirs did not. Of course there are other variables like the jock strategy. Agree, hope he is ok.

[bello]

i am going with #14 NAVY COMMANDER


he is training great and aways runs good.

the horse i don't like is #7 BOBBY'S WICKED ONE. the other horses coming out of the race he just ran have done little.










i
Stick to your favorite harness track

Aaron race 5
Box 16 race 4

[AstrosFan]

14 3 Year Old's are entered today for Mahoning Valley's richest race.


With a $250,000 purse that could only get $216,044 of handle on the big race and zero mention of it on Paulick Report.

Sorry Penn Gaming but you failed again when it comes to racing

[mountainman]

Isn't that a self-fulfilling prophecy though, since any time a horse with back class wins you can say the horse won on class, and when they don't win you can say their form changed?


My thoughts right now are with the horse though. Terrible ending to the day, and the worst part of this game.

Condylar fracture. Headed for surgery. Not life threatening. Could even return to action at some point, sir.

[rrpic6]

With a $250,000 purse that could only get $216,044 of handle on the big race and zero mention of it on Paulick Report.

Sorry Penn Gaming but you failed again when it comes to racing


Happy reading AstFan:


https://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/trigger-warning-all-heart-in-steel-valley-sprint/


Note mention of handle for the card at the end of article.


RR

[Robert Fischer]

.the 6 horse, a pace-oriented router, tries a different game and will have to close..i do suspect the ohio derby was his best effort, which could be relevant, since the horse lives and trains in ohio, a state still somewhat notorious for permissive med policies................

Trigger Warning was very brave.

I had the :7: winning in my handicapping. You know the circuit very well. I think some of your thoughts on this race were the difference. Trigger Warning ran well on basically his home court, and the pace scenario was less contested than I expected (either he outran the pace or the 2,5,etc.. didn't break well, I haven't reviewed the race). The payouts were actually very generous, because it was a big field, and if Trigger Warning actually went off post-time favorite(haven't checked), he was a luke-warm favorite.

Hopefully the surgery went well and he'll be in good hands, whether he races again or enjoys his retirement.

[mountainman]

Race seriously marred now by belated revelation that 2 horse's gate failed to fully open. Almost certainly altered the pace, and may well have altered the outcome. The Ness is a real blazer and was notable in his odd absence from the first flight.

Very, very unfortunate. I have never seen or heard of anything like this in such a lucrative race. When Mvr screws up, they don't go small. That's for sure.

Story has probably broken. DRF all over it.

Suddenly, btw, I don't feel like QUITE such a genius for cashing big on Trigger Warning's narrow gate-to-wire win. If the 2 breaks, maybe Trigger rates just behind or survives the extra heat....or maybe not so much. Tricky question with the place horse also involved early and the third finisher so well-beaten as no real factor.

[cj]

Race seriously marred now by belated revelation that 2 horse's gate failed to fully open. Almost certainly altered the pace, and may well have altered the outcome. The Ness is a real blazer and was notable in his odd absence from the first flight.

Very, very unfortunate. I have never seen or heard of anything like this in such a lucrative race. When Mvr screws up, they don't go small. That's for sure.

Story has probably broken. DRF all over it.

Suddenly, btw, I don't feel like QUITE such a genius for cashing big on Trigger Warning's narrow gate-to-wire win. If the 2 breaks, maybe Trigger rates just behind or survives the extra heat....or maybe not so much. Tricky question with the place horse also involved early and the third finisher so well-beaten as no real factor.

I haven't seen a peep about this until now. Watched the head on, very hard to see due to the wonderful replay quality from MVR. Sure looks fishy.

[Robert Fischer]

Race seriously marred now by belated revelation that 2 horse's gate failed to fully open. Almost certainly altered the pace, and may well have altered the outcome. The Ness is a real blazer and was notable in his odd absence from the first flight.

Very, very unfortunate. I have never seen or heard of anything like this in such a lucrative race. When Mvr screws up, they don't go small. That's for sure.

Story has probably broken. DRF all over it.

Suddenly, btw, I don't feel like QUITE such a genius for cashing big on Trigger Warning's narrow gate-to-wire win. If the 2 breaks, maybe Trigger rates just behind or survives the extra heat....or maybe not so much. Tricky question with the place horse also involved early and the third finisher so well-beaten as no real factor.

Wow. First I heard of this. Going to watch the head-on (assuming it's available).

Was surprised by the pace.

Either way, Trigger Warning and jock made the most of that opportunity. He did out-game the 7, in a fair-enough race and stretch run between the two of them.

[Robert Fischer]

I haven't seen a peep about this until now. Watched the head on, very hard to see due to the wonderful replay quality from MVR. Sure looks fishy.

I can't see it well enough.

[the little guy]

I haven't seen a peep about this until now. Watched the head on, very hard to see due to the wonderful replay quality from MVR. Sure looks fishy.

You can't see much on the head-on except him getting slammed right after the break, but watching the pan, he doesn't break any more than a fraction of a step slowly. The slam likely contributed to his lack of speed. Anything else seems like mere conjecture.

There is nothing on DRF about it.

[mountainman]

-------------------------------------------You can't see much on the head-on except him getting slammed right after the break, but watching the pan, he doesn't break any more than a fraction of a step slowly. The slam likely contributed to his lack of speed. Anything else seems like mere conjecture.

There is nothing on DRF about it.

The gate failing to fully open isn't conjecture. And had to factor into the horse's lack of speed. Also, the angle of pan shots renders them deceptive concerning the break. Especially with a horse down close to the rail.

[cj]

The gate failing to fully open isn't conjecture. And certainly factored into the horse's lack of speed. Also, the angle of pan shots renders them deceptive concerning the break.

Have a screen shot? I personally can't see it well enough to know what is happening. I had better luck watching scrambled porn in the 80s. Pretty sure I saw a nipple once.

[mountainman]

Have a screen shot? I personally can't see it well enough to know what is happening. I had better luck watching scrambled porn in the 80s. Pretty sure I saw a nipple once.

All I know is the gate failed to fully deploy. It's no secret. Lots of people are aware.

[mountainman]

Have a screen shot? I personally can't see it well enough to know what is happening. I had better luck watching scrambled porn in the 80s. Pretty sure I saw a nipple once.

It's not something I picked up on visually.

[mountainman]

Have a screen shot? I personally can't see it well enough to know what is happening. I had better luck watching scrambled porn in the 80s. Pretty sure I saw a nipple once.

The malfunction, I mean. Not the Nipple.

[Robert Fischer]

spanish channel to the rescue
https://ugc-02.cafemomstatic.com/gen/constrain/5000/500/70/2012/09/20/10/8g/ku/phz9r01gws1.jpg

[mountainman]

There is nothing on DRF about it.

I do know they are on it.

[the little guy]

IMO, the article in DRF is inaccurate. He absolutely did NOT break "several lengths behind all but one runner." He broke a fraction slow at most, but was hindered when the horse outside of him came in and slammed him. I'm not going to argue with the rider, as the head-on is tough to see, and if the gate malfunctioned in any way there should have been a refund ( if it did in fact malfunction ). However, exaggerating the circumstances doesn't help the story.

[Robert Fischer]

I do know they are on it.

https://www.drf.com/news/gate-malfunction-hinders-smokin-nitro-steel-valley-sprint

good call on DRF breaking the story.


I don't disagree with TLG's take.

[cj]

Sadly, Trigger Warning did not survive.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/One_of_a_kind_Trigger_Warning_succumbs_to_injuries _after_stakes_win_123#

[mountainman]

Sadly, Trigger Warning did not survive.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/One_of_a_kind_Trigger_Warning_succumbs_to_injuries _after_stakes_win_123#

omg...so sad..nice horse..brave win yesterday..

[mountainman]

Resume racing this sunday. 14 makeup days at 8 races per card entailing 5 day per week in dec.

makeup days not a given. final word comes down friday.

[mountainman]

Inside bias as today's card progressed. Golden rail for last few races.

My surface notes thus far: (translated from quirky short-hand to understandable form)

OCT 26-EXTREMELY SPEED-FAVORING..STRIKING DISTANCE REQUIRED FOR MINOR PLACINGS

OCT 27-PRO-SPEED, PRO-RAIL...VERY DIFFICULT TO CLOSE

OCT 30-VERY POTENT PRO-RAIL...MODERATELY SPEED-FAVORING, AS WELL

OCT 31-PRO-SPEED

NOV 3-FAIR

NOV 5-FAIR

NOV 6-A BIT ANTI-WIDE...NOT PRO-RAIL

NOV 7-NOTORIOUS LONGSHOT-DAY...5-PATH WINNERS WERE RECURRENT THEME

NOV 10-FAIR

NOV 12-FAIR

NOV 13-BASICALLY FAIR TO ALL STYLES, BUT TWO-WIDE OR THREE- WIDE TURN BIDS HAD EDGE ON GROUND-SAVING LEADERS

NOV 14-DEAD-RAIL COMPROMISED NUMEROUS SPEEDS

NOV 17-SLIGHTLY ANTI-SPEED??..SLIGHTLY ANTI RAIL??

[mountainman]

If I get time after Mnr concludes, I'll post some recaps with takeaways, and some horses to watch for.