Does Accelerate now win HOY over Justify?

[Andy Asaro]

I say yes.


https://twitter.com/DCHI23/status/1058844796716965888

[ReplayRandall]

I say yes.


https://twitter.com/DCHI23/status/1058844796716965888

You can say yes, but you know that will never happen....TC Winner is auto HOY.

[letswastemoney]

I don't care personally, but voters aren't going to make Accelerate HOTY over Justify.

[Buckeye]

Justify in a walk.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/ABRLive/status/1058845869347430400

https://twitter.com/kaitlinefree/status/1058848905570455552

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/TimeformUSfigs/status/1058841666155696130

[GMB@BP]

https://twitter.com/ABRLive/status/1058845869347430400

https://twitter.com/kaitlinefree/status/1058848905570455552

only horse that can give him trouble at that track, and 9f, is City of Light.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1058868904259313665

Excerpt:

Before we get deeper into this topic, I should reiterate my strong belief that despite Accelerate’s victory in the Classic and whatever else happened in this Breeders’ Cup, Horse of the Year honors and the 3-year-old male championship were settled on the afternoon of June 9, when Justify became just the 13th Triple Crown winner. I went into depth on this in my pre-Breeders’ Cup column.

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1058869262402510848

Excerpt:

Some folks have said that if Accelerate wins the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he is their Horse of the Year. And some folks appeared to be itching to cast their Horse of the Year vote for Accelerate well before the Classic was even drawn. How can I say that? Because for the last 2 1/2 months, Accelerate has ranked No. 1 in the NTRA’s weekly top 10 poll, comfortably ahead of Justify. And most, if not all, of the people who participate in that poll also have Eclipse Award votes.

[MadVindication]

Well maybe Accelerate should win HOY but as someone says bets are on the Triple Crown Winner auto getting that award. So I think that all of us putting a mop on our heads and our noses in each others asses has same chance as winning HOY as Accelerate

https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/61VCAKBSjEL._UY445_.jpg

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/GenesisRacing/status/1058880281686523905

[papillon]

Yes

Two of Justify's 6 wins include a MSW and an ALLW, against nothing. That matters when comparing records.

No 3 yo he raced against has done anything since. At least City of Light won today.

Today showed why open company is so necessary to assess a 3yo.

Maybe, people will start noticing that Baffert becomes a very ordinary trainer when dopping protocols actually are enforced.

[ReplayRandall]

Maybe, people will start noticing that Baffert becomes a very ordinary trainer when dopping protocols actually are enforced.

Time to open up off-topic now....Wow, what a stank post..:faint:

[bobphilo]

I think that these are 2 separate questions. One question is who should get HOTY and the other is who will probably get HOTY. The answer to the 1st question is Accelerate. The answer to the 2nd is Justify. Winning the TC usually earns a horse HOTY but not necessarily. Omaha did not get HOTY when he won the TC.
Yes Justify did dominate the 3YO crop during his brief career but never beat or even faced open competition. How he would have fared against Accelerate who has proven himself against all comers, including an impressive BC Classic win, is a matter of speculation. However Justify will probably get HOTY because most non-racing fans never even think of racing beyond the Kentucky Derby or Triple Crown 1 day or 5 weeks a year, so they will probably pander to the ignorant masses and give it to Justify.

[paulbenny]

I find the horse of the year argument very confusing to address but I will try.
Justify retired after a very limited campaign. Justify did win the Triple Crown. Accelerate did a very convincing job of winning the horse of the year in any year ex a Triple Crown winner.


The question for the team/house, is if a TC winner retires, after their last big victory in the Belmont, does that assure them of an automatic HOY without a doubt, not to say that would be a strategy but it seems wrong

[GMB@BP]

Omaha did not get HOTY when he won the TC.

The award started a year after his 3 year old season, would have been tough to win it. facts matter!

[GMB@BP]

The question for the team/house, is if a TC winner retires, after their last big victory in the Belmont, does that assure them of an automatic HOY without a doubt, not to say that would be a strategy but it seems wrong

No I dont think it was automatic, for example I think Gun Runner, who's flat out dominating wins in brilliant times would have been a even stronger case.......Accelerate has not been as brilliant, think he got a 105 beyer today and 102 last time. Gun Runner went like 115-115.

[Tom]

Par for the Classic is 116.
The only horse ever to win the Classic with a lower Beyer was Drosselmeyer. Next lowest was RAvens Run, 110, on poly track.

So if Justify beat nothing, Accelerate can't claim he beat much either.

Will wait to see what CJ gives the race.

[GMB@BP]

Par for the Classic is 116.
The only horse ever to win the Classic with a lower Beyer was Drosselmeyer. Next lowest was RAvens Run, 110, on poly track.

So if Justify beat nothing, Accelerate can't claim he beat much either.

Will wait to see what CJ gives the race.

121...think gun runner got a 141 and Arrogate got a 136.

[cj]

121...think gun runner got a 141 and Arrogate got a 136.

https://twitter.com/TimeformUSfigs/status/1058884501978472448

[sammy the sage]

Par for the Classic is 116.
The only horse ever to win the Classic with a lower Beyer was Drosselmeyer. Next lowest was RAvens Run, 110, on poly track.

So if Justify beat nothing, Accelerate can't claim he beat much either.

Will wait to see what CJ gives the race.

Well Accelerate smoked McKinisie...whom Baffet said was the better horse than Justify...just sayin....

[GMB@BP]

https://twitter.com/TimeformUSfigs/status/1058884501978472448

thanks, do you know how that rated historically...the memory is going man

[GMB@BP]

Well Accelerate smoked McKinisie...whom Baffet said was the better horse than Justify...just sayin....

when did he say that????? I gotta hear that one.

[sammy the sage]

when did he say that????? I gotta hear that one.

Pretty much talked about on the NBC coverage today...that McKinsie was considered his Derby horse of choice and that Justify just happened to fill in...plus way back in early spring...that was the talk then as well...

[GMB@BP]

Pretty much talked about on the NBC coverage today...that McKinsie was considered his Derby horse of choice and that Justify just happened to fill in...plus way back in early spring...that was the talk then as well...

They thought very highly of McKinzie but Justify was also very very highly thought of, though working through some things.

Once they started running for real though I never heard that from anyone in that camp, ever.

[dilanesp]

No I dont think it was automatic, for example I think Gun Runner, who's flat out dominating wins in brilliant times would have been a even stronger case.......Accelerate has not been as brilliant, think he got a 105 beyer today and 102 last time. Gun Runner went like 115-115.

Horse of the Year isn't a speed figure competition.

If it were, of course, Justify could never win it.

[GMB@BP]

Horse of the Year isn't a speed figure competition.

If it were, of course, Justify could never win it.

we will just have to see how it plays out, get your popcorn. :popcorn:

[cj]

thanks, do you know how that rated historically...the memory is going man

I'll check and post tomorrow. Made a few adjustments (Sprint, Dirt Mile), see below.

https://twitter.com/TimeformUSfigs/status/1058929793146720256

[GMB@BP]

I think at 9F I would take City of Light any day of the week against Accelerate. At 10F it changes.

[cj]

I think at 9F I would take City of Light any day of the week against Accelerate. At 10F it changes.

Probably, but we don't really run the top races at 9f for older males.

[GMB@BP]

Probably, but we don't really run the top races at 9f for older males.

Its a mix really, the Clark, Stephen Foster, the Woodward, the Pegasus...all pretty good 9F events.

The west coast is the place where 10F races are more the top races.

[bobphilo]

Its a mix really, the Clark, Stephen Foster, the Woodward, the Pegasus...all pretty good 9F events.

The west coast is the place where 10F races are more the top races.

10 furlongs is THE classic distance in the US, just as 12 furlongs is in Europe.
That's why the 2 most important races run in the US, the KY Derby and the BC Classic are at 10 furlongs.

[bobphilo]

No I dont think it was automatic, for example I think Gun Runner, who's flat out dominating wins in brilliant times would have been a even stronger case.......Accelerate has not been as brilliant, think he got a 105 beyer today and 102 last time. Gun Runner went like 115-115.

Accelerate is not competing with Gun Runner for HOTY.

[bobphilo]

The award started a year after his 3 year old season, would have been tough to win it. facts matter!

Yes facts matter. It was not called the Eclipse HOTY Award back then but the year when Omaha won the Triple Crown (1935), Discovery was considered the Horse of the Year. Just as Sir Barton is considered the 1st TC winner though it did not exist as such back then.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Horse_of_the_Year

[bobphilo]

https://twitter.com/TimeformUSfigs/status/1058884501978472448

Even the most dyed in the wool figure maker knows that just the a figure does not represent the totality of a horse's performance. Accelerate pressed a hot pace that was a set up for closers while wide on both turns.

[classhandicapper]

As Triple Crown winners go, Justify wasn't one of the more impressive ones, but I wouldn't hold his speed figures against him too much.

1. A few of his races had fast paces that no doubt impacted his figure and helped bottom out some of the horses chasing him.

2. The figures for Triple Crown horses have been declining in recent years. There may be a few reasons for that, but I think the Beyer team made a logical case that the horses are so much more lightly raced and unseasoned now, they develop later. (Of course if that's true it argues that giving horses more races at 2 and 3 to develop them quicker might be a better strategy). Justify was VERY lightly raced and probably had a lot of improving to do (just like American Pharoah)

As older horses go, Accelerate had a monster year. He was 6 for 7 with 5 Grade 1s in some of the biggest races of the entire year. His only loss was a big effort against City of Light who is now also a BC Winner.

SA Handicap
SA Gold Cup
Pacific Classic
Awesome Again
Breeder's Cup Classic

I don't think this was the best crop of older horses, but it was still a huge year for him.

In most years Accelerate would be a no brainer for HOTY, but I think a Triple Crown winner almost has to get it.

[zico20]

I voted for Justify because I think they will give it to him for winning the TC. If I had a vote, it would be for Accelerate. He had the better year, and is the best horse to race this year.

[pandy]

My guess is that Justify will win it but Accelerate would get my vote. I don't care what the figure was for the Classic, Accelerate was wide throughout, won convincingly, and beat a much better field than anything Justify ever faced. Plus he ran big in all of his starts this year, all against top company.

[metro]

Give it to Accelerate, show the industry that racing, and dominating, as a 5 year old still matters.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1059098744375791617

[GMB@BP]

Accelerate is not competing with Gun Runner for HOTY.

thanks for the information

[GMB@BP]

Give it to Accelerate, show the industry that racing, and dominating, as a 5 year old still matters.

I do think there will be a certain percentage that use that as kind of a tie breaker.

[Andy Asaro]

If Justify doesn't get it a lot will have to do with Baffert who in many peoples opinion including mine believe he's the "Lance Armstrong" of Horse Racing.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/KostaHronis/status/1058869688929792001

[linrom1]

If Justify doesn't get it a lot will have to do with Baffert who in many peoples opinion including mine believe he's the "Lance Armstrong" of Horse Racing.

He's as shady as come. The way his horses freak and then run like cows is not normal. Another trainer like this is Jason Servis.

[MadVindication]

Give it to Accelerate, show the industry that racing, and dominating, as a 5 year old still matters.

That's a good point.

Well there's Pink Lloyd up in Canada. It still matters in Canada. Too bad Canada doesn't matter.

[AskinHaskin]

Omaha did not get HOTY when he won the TC.



Yeah, maybe because Omaha was the only TC winner coming off of a loss when entering the Belmont. Omaha was 1-for-his-last-9 when entered on Derby day, and that win was as a heavy favorite in some allowance race.

Omaha's 3yo campaign was more brief than Justify's 2018 campaign.


Not only that, but the Triple Crown was of minimal importance at the time, and it is hardly comparable to today.


And there's also the reality that Justify never lost, unlike Accelerate.


Everybody thought that Zenyatta would win HOY immediately after she won the Classic, and then reality set in once the sheen wore off.

[dilanesp]

Yeah, maybe because Omaha was the only TC winner coming off of a loss when entering the Belmont. Omaha was 1-for-his-last-9 when entered on Derby day, and that win was as a heavy favorite in some allowance race.

Omaha's 3yo campaign was more brief than Justify's 2018 campaign.


Not only that, but the Triple Crown was of minimal importance at the time, and it is hardly comparable to today.


And there's also the reality that Justify never lost, unlike Accelerate.


Everybody thought that Zenyatta would win HOY immediately after she won the Classic, and then reality set in once the sheen wore off.

The Zenyatta / RA thing was produced by the unbalanced electorate, dominated by eastern writers. New York types HATED Zenyatta. They never liked the BC back there, they hated synthetics, and they loved that Jackson refused to run his horse in the BC after winning the Woodward, a race that used to be really important.

That vote was their chance to posture against the BC, synthetics, and California, and they did.

This is very different.

[Burls]

In most years Accelerate would be a no brainer for HOTY, but I think a Triple Crown winner almost has to get it.
This is the sticking point, isn't it.
If I had a vote (I did but not one that REALLY counts) I'd vote for Accelerate on the basis that he was the BETTER horse.
Still, winning the TC is nothing to sneeze at.
No matter which one wins it, people will be disappointed and angry.
Hey! That's just like politics.
:lol::lol:

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1059454224524660736

[biggestal99]

As people told me when I liked blame over zenyatta.

Best horse is not always horse of the year.

Blame was better and they gave it to zenyatta.

Allan

[ReplayRandall]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1059454224524660736

Do you think Accelerate will be inducted into the Hall of Fame?....Maybe.

The first 11 Triple Crown Winners are all in, with AP a lock in the next year. Eventually, Justify will be inducted as well....There's a reason they all get in, but that escapes most here who think Accelerate will be HOY.....TC winners are auto HOY for the last 80 years, as it's the almost unthinkable dream of every owner and trainer in the game to ever have one......Most everyone would just be extremely happy for a Derby winner.

[Tom]

No matter who gets it, who cares?
No one here gets any money for it, no one here gets to go the dinner. No one here gets a trophy.

Shut up and bet. :lol:

[Andy Asaro]

Do you think Accelerate will be inducted into the Hall of Fame?....Maybe.

The first 11 Triple Crown Winners are all in, with AP a lock in the next year. Eventually, Justify will be inducted as well....There's a reason they all get in, but that escapes most here who think Accelerate will be HOY.....TC winners are auto HOY for the last 80 years, as it's the almost unthinkable dream of every owner and trainer in the game to ever have one......Most everyone would just be extremely happy for a Derby winner.

Things change. Accelerate did more all year against the best competition. He is horse of the year.

[ReplayRandall]

Things change. Accelerate did more all year against the best competition. He is horse of the year.

Weak group throughout all ranks in 2018....If this is all you got, no Bueno.

[Andy Asaro]

Weak group throughout all ranks in 2018....If this is all you got, no Bueno.

Paulick report poll has them in a dead heat. Twitter poll has Accelerate ahead. If it was a slam dunk as you said the polls shouldn't be close

[ReplayRandall]

Paulick report poll has them in a dead heat. Twitter poll has Accelerate ahead. If it was a slam dunk as you said the polls shouldn't be close

Give it time Lowenstein, give it time....

[Andy Asaro]

Give it time Lowenstein, give it time....

Lowenstein??

[cj]

My informal poll on Twitter puts Justify comfortably in the lead, 94 to 58.

https://twitter.com/TimeformUSfigs/status/1058841666155696130

[Andy Asaro]

Paulick Report has it dead even

Who would you vote for as North America's 2018 Horse of the Year?

Accelerate 43.68%

Justify 43.78%

Monomoy Girl 12.54%


My twitter poll has it like this from 186 votes. I'd imagine the Paulick Report is gonna get the biggest sample.

54% Accelerate wins HOY

46% Justify wins HOY


I'm pretty sure that Justify will get it but I'm gonna do all the lobbying I can for Accelerate.

[ReplayRandall]

Lowenstein??

Quote from Prince of Tides---Nick Nolte....Are you too young for that?

[Andy Asaro]

Quote from Prince of Tides---Nick Nolte....Are you too young for that?

Never saw it.

[dilanesp]

Do you think Accelerate will be inducted into the Hall of Fame?....Maybe.

The first 11 Triple Crown Winners are all in, with AP a lock in the next year. Eventually, Justify will be inducted as well....There's a reason they all get in, but that escapes most here who think Accelerate will be HOY.....TC winners are auto HOY for the last 80 years, as it's the almost unthinkable dream of every owner and trainer in the game to ever have one......Most everyone would just be extremely happy for a Derby winner.

That's true, but that doesn't mean Justify is deserving.

He's a CLEAR vote against for the HOF. Clear. His Belmont win isn't even really legitimate.

[ReplayRandall]

That's true, but that doesn't mean Justify is deserving.

He's a CLEAR vote against for the HOF. Clear. His Belmont win isn't even really legitimate.

Justify will be 2018 HOY and will be in the HOF inside of 6 years....Clearly, that's what WILL happen, deserving or not.

[dilanesp]

Justify will be 2018 HOY and will be in the HOF inside of 6 years....Clearly, that's what WILL happen, deserving or not.

I agree with both predictions. But I am rooting against it.

[Bullet Plane]

Well...

History is something you have to consider with the HOY IMHO:

Pacific Classic:

1991 Best Pal
1992 Missionary Ridge
1993 Betrando
1994 Tinners Way
1995 Tinners Way
1996 Dare and Go
1997 Gentelmen
1998 Free House
1999 General Challenge
2000 Skimming
2001 Skimming
2002 Came Home
2003 Candy Ride
2004 Pleasantly Perfect
2005 Borrego
2006 Lava Man
2007 Student Council
2008 Go Between
2009 Richard's Kid
2010 Richard's Kid
2011 Acclamation
2012 Dullahan
2013 Game On Dude
2014 Shared Belief
2015 Beholder
2016 California Chrome
2017 Collected
2018 Accelerate

Santa Anita Handicap:
1991 Farma Way
1992 Best Pal
1993 Sir Beaufort
1994 Stuka
1995 Urgent Request
1996 Mr Purple
1997 Siphon
1998 Malek
1999 Free House
2000 General Challenge
2001 Tiznow
2002 Milwaukee Brew
2003 Milwaukee Brew
2004 Southern Image
2005 Rock Hard Ten
2006 Lava Man
2007 Lava Man
2008 Heatseeker
2009 Einstein
2010 Misremembered
2011 Game On Dude
2012 Ron The Greek
2013 Game On Dude
2014 Game On Dude
2015 Shared Belief
2016 Melatonin
2017 Shaman Ghost
2018 Accelerate

Gold Cup:

1991 Marquetry
1992 Sultry Song
1993 Best Pal
1994 Slew of Damascus
1995 Cigar
1996 Siphon
1997 Gentelmen
1998 Skip Away
1999 Real Quiet
2000 Early Pioneer
2001 Aptitude
2002 Sky Jack
2003 Congaree
2004 Total Impact
2005 Lava Man
2006 Lava Man
2007 Lava Man
2008 Mast Track
2009 Rail Trip
2010 Awesome Gen
2011 First Dude
2012 Game On Dude
2013 Game On Dude
2014 Majestic Harbor
2015 Hard Aces
2016 Melatonin
2017 Cupid
2018 Accelerate

Breeders' Cup Classic:

1991 Black Tie Affair
1992 A.P. Indy
1993 Arcangues
1994 Concern
1995 Cigar
1996 Alphabet Soup
1997 Skip Away
1998 Awesome Again
1999 Cat Thief
2000 Tiznow
2001 Tiznow
2002 Volponi
2003 Pleasantly Perfect
2004 Ghostzapper
2005 Saint Liam
2006 Invasor
2007 Curlin
2008 Raven's Pass
2009 Zenyatta
2010 Blame
2011 Drosselmeyer
2012 Fort Larned
2013 Mucho Macho Man
2014 Bayern
2015 American Pharoah
2016 Arrogate
2017 Gun Runner
2018 Accelerate

I see only one horse to bag all these in one year.

Also, this goes back to 1991. We are looking at 27 years of history there.
No horse has been able to accomplish this West Coast Grand Superfecta in 27 years.
That is one hell of a lot of history, and look at the great horses that couldn't pull this off. Quite a list!

It would be a shame to screw this horse out of HOTY.

On the other hand, triple crown winners don't come along very often either.

Maybe a double winner this year, or somebody gets really screwed.

It's not an easy pick. IMHO.

[cj]

You could add the Goodwood (now Awesome Again) to the list, and obviously he'd be the only won to do the SoCal Grand Slam plus the BC Classic.

This is going to be a tough decision for me personally. Going to put it aside for a while and let the recency bias wear off and revisit at voting time.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1059990692112429057

Excerpt:

Since my last column on this topic, no horse that Justify beat has done anything to support his Horse of the Year credentials. Look no further than the Breeders’ Cup Mile and the Classic. Bravazo, a half-length behind Justify in the Preakness, was third in the BC Mile, beaten 5¼ lengths. In the Classic, Mendelssohn dead last in the Kentucky Derby, ran fifth, beaten four lengths. And consider McKinzie, who was Baffert’s Derby horse before getting injured. He ran 12th of 14 on the BC Classic.

As I said in closing my previous column: “A four-month racing career can certainly win a Triple Crown, but a longer, more productive career may be better for the industry as a whole and perhaps more deserving when it comes to handing out Eclipse Awards.”

[cj]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1059990692112429057

Excerpt:

Since my last column on this topic, no horse that Justify beat has done anything to support his Horse of the Year credentials. Look no further than the Breeders’ Cup Mile and the Classic. Bravazo, a half-length behind Justify in the Preakness, was third in the BC Mile, beaten 5¼ lengths. In the Classic, Mendelssohn dead last in the Kentucky Derby, ran fifth, beaten four lengths. And consider McKinzie, who was Baffert’s Derby horse before getting injured. He ran 12th of 14 on the BC Classic.

As I said in closing my previous column: “A four-month racing career can certainly win a Triple Crown, but a longer, more productive career may be better for the industry as a whole and perhaps more deserving when it comes to handing out Eclipse Awards.”

What was the point of him throwing McKinzie in there? They never faced each other. And he was never Baffert's Derby horse any more than Justify was. He just ran sooner and was more well known.

It also isn't uncommon for horses to do nothing after the TC grind. That is nothing new, it ruins a lot of horses. Chasing Justify could very well be a part of their demise.

[ReplayRandall]

As I said in closing my previous column: “A four-month racing career can certainly win a Triple Crown, but a longer, more productive career may be better for the industry as a whole and perhaps more deserving when it comes to handing out Eclipse Awards.”

So....How many times are you going to repeat yourself?....It isn't going to change a thing, but just keep doing it over and over Sport, and pretty soon no one will read anything you post.....Your act is tiresome right now, about to permanently tune you out unless you pivot to more meaningful subject matter.....But what do I know?

[thaskalos]

If the "Horse of the Year" is an award for the 'best horse of the year'...then Accelerate should win it. But if it's a popularity vote for the horse who has best "promoted" the various interests of the game...then I could see it going to Justify.

[Spalding No!]

Since my last column on this topic, no horse that Justify beat has done anything to support his Horse of the Year credentials. Look no further than the Breeders’ Cup Mile and the Classic. Bravazo, a half-length behind Justify in the Preakness, was third in the BC Mile, beaten 5¼ lengths. In the Classic, Mendelssohn dead last in the Kentucky Derby, ran fifth, beaten four lengths. And consider McKinzie, who was Baffert’s Derby horse before getting injured. He ran 12th of 14 on the BC Classic.
Kind of a silly argument to bring up when you hold Accelerate to the same standard.

Of all the races he won this year, just 3 horses (out of 20 different horses) returned to win another race...and only one of those was able to win multiple times. They were:

Pavel...who won the Stephen Foster G1 amid a series of defeats.

City of Light...who took the BC Dirt Mile G1 after racing sparingly (and losing) during the summer and fall.

Ike Walker...who took 2 optional claimers (he was in for the tag) from 6 or so starts after being defeated by Accelerate in the San Pasqual.

Meanwhile, Justify beat 3 subsequent winners in his allowance score. A graded stakes winner (Core Beliefs) came out of the SA Derby.

In the KY Derby, Good Magic (G1), Audible, Hofburg, Promises Fulfilled (G1, MGSW), Lone Sailor (G3), and Firenze Fire (MGSW) all won subsequently and Mendelssohn and Bravazo placed in multiple Grade 1s each.

In addition to the Derby runners aforementioned, the Preakness produced subsequent graded stakes winner Tenfold. The new shooters in the Belmont did nothing subsequently.

[dilanesp]

Kind of a silly argument to bring up when you hold Accelerate to the same standard.

Of all the races he won this year, just 3 horses (out of 20 different horses) returned to win another race...and only one of those was able to win multiple times. They were:

Pavel...who won the Stephen Foster G1 amid a series of defeats.

City of Light...who took the BC Dirt Mile G1 after racing sparingly (and losing) during the summer and fall.

Ike Walker...who took 2 optional claimers (he was in for the tag) from 6 or so starts after being defeated by Accelerate in the San Pasqual.

Meanwhile, Justify beat 3 subsequent winners in his allowance score. A graded stakes winner (Core Beliefs) came out of the SA Derby.

In the KY Derby, Good Magic (G1), Audible, Hofburg, Promises Fulfilled (G1, MGSW), Lone Sailor (G3), and Firenze Fire (MGSW) all won subsequently and Mendelssohn and Bravazo placed in multiple Grade 1s each.

In addition to the Derby runners aforementioned, the Preakness produced subsequent graded stakes winner Tenfold. The new shooters in the Belmont did nothing subsequently.

How many of those horses Justify beat have ever won a race over older horses?

By definition the Derby winner will beat some stakes winners. Means nothing because it isn't open competition.

[Spalding No!]

How many of those horses Justify beat have ever won a race over older horses?

By definition the Derby winner will beat some stakes winners. Means nothing because it isn't open competition.
In addition to Promises Fulfilled, who won the Grade 2 Phoenix over older horses, Shivermetimbers and Pepe Tono both won first condition allowance races over older horses during the summer.

Most recently, both the latter two horses ran in the same second condition allowance race at Santa Anita in October. They both placed (2nd and 3rd respectively), finishing in front of--coincidentally--Ike Walker, the only horse Accelerate beat all year that won more than one subsequent race.

Audible is scheduled to face his elders in December and I presume the Clark, Cigar Mile, and Native Diver might draw a 3yo or two.

[AskinHaskin]

Also, this goes back to 1991. We are looking at 27 years of history there.
No horse has been able to accomplish this West Coast Grand Superfecta in 27 years.

It would be a shame to screw this horse out of HOTY.



Uh, they don't have a West Coast Horse of the Year.

So give up already.

[AskinHaskin]

The Zenyatta / RA thing was produced by the unbalanced electorate, dominated by eastern writers.

This is very different.



Um, no it isn't...

[Andy Asaro]

So....How many times are you going to repeat yourself?....It isn't going to change a thing, but just keep doing it over and over Sport, and pretty soon no one will read anything you post.....Your act is tiresome right now, about to permanently tune you out unless you pivot to more meaningful subject matter.....But what do I know?

Charlie Hayward wrote it. Read the article sport.

[ReplayRandall]

Charlie Hayward wrote it. Read the article.

I don't have to....you've repeated it so many times, I know it by heart....Quit acting like a pinhead, I'm getting tired of your schtick, Sport.

[Andy Asaro]

I don't have to....you've repeated it so many times, I know it by heart....Quit acting like a pinhead, I'm getting tired of your schtick, Sport.

You know you started this drive by crap with me. What's your problem? Are you a moderator who is admonishing me or just a guy with me in your head? Sorry I upset you so much but your posts aren't gonna change a thing. They will however give me a laugh that I'm that far in your head...... sport:rolleyes:

[dilanesp]

In addition to Promises Fulfilled, who won the Grade 2 Phoenix over older horses, Shivermetimbers and Pepe Tono both won first condition allowance races over older horses during the summer.

Most recently, both the latter two horses ran in the same second condition allowance race at Santa Anita in October. They both placed (2nd and 3rd respectively), finishing in front of--coincidentally--Ike Walker, the only horse Accelerate beat all year that won more than one subsequent race.

Audible is scheduled to face his elders in December and I presume the Clark, Cigar Mile, and Native Diver might draw a 3yo or two.

So basically Justify beat one horse who won a stakes over older horses- and that was a speedball winning a sprint stakes who was entered at the wrong distance in the Derby.

Sorry Spalding, that's not good enough.

[Spalding No!]

So basically Justify beat one horse who won a stakes over older horses- and that was a speedball winning a sprint stakes who was entered at the wrong distance in the Derby.

Sorry Spalding, that's not good enough.
I didn't say it was good enough. Nevertheless, there was more productivity from the 3yo crop--whether you think it "counts" or not--then the author of the linked article was letting on...

The main point was that the record of Accelerate's vanquished rivals was paltry at best. Just 4 victories from 3 horses despite dozens of starts. How do you reconcile that when you are quick to cut down the horses behind Justify?

[bobphilo]

This whole thread just proves the weakness of the "who did he beat" school of handicapping. Any horse can be degraded by digging up out the faults of horses he beat. Even Secretariat's Belmont performance can be degraded. "Yes he won by a big margin but who did he beat, Twice a Prince? My Gallant? Private Smiles? Yes Sham was in the field but he went bad that day and ran the worst race of his life finishing last behind Private Smiles?"

I was at Belmont when Ruffian won the Mother Goose, her last race before her fatal match race with Foolish Pleasure. The filly who finished 2nd had once run in an optional claiming race but had now improved to G1 stakes placed caliber and was gaining on Ruffian in the stretch when the great filly was coasting home without urging. She won with ease and the chart said "confidently ridden". Yet some clown yelled out, "This filly is a sham. She had trouble beating a claimer".

If you read what's being said about both Justify and Accelerate you'd think they were a couple of losers who only beat a bunch of tomato cans. Just about any horse, even a great one, can be degraded by someone using the "who did they beat" philosophy.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/loomsboldly/status/1060148174185250816

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/MichaelPawluk/status/1060170455724818433

[the little guy]

It wasn't easy, but PaceAdvantage just hit an all-time low.

[sour grapes]

It wasn't easy, but PaceAdvantage just hit an all-time low.

why?this is a debate with no right answer...just opinions.

[Spalding No!]

It wasn't easy, but PaceAdvantage just hit an all-time low.
Which part?

The part where random tweets from similar HOY debates being conducted on Twitter are posted in lieu of original content...

...or the part where I use Pepe Tono as a means of bolstering support for Justify as HOY?

...honorable mention to the attempt to use a California-based horse (Justify) to expose an east coast bias in the Eclipse Awards balloting...

[Andy Asaro]

Latest Paulick Report Poll


https://www.paulickreport.com/

Who would you vote for as North America's 2018 Horse of the Year?

Accelerate 41.51%

Justify 46.75%

Monomoy Girl 11.74%

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1060257691543658496

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1060316477088092165

Excerpt:

What once seemed like an impossibility–that Triple Crown winner Justify (Scat Daddy) would not be named 2019 Horse of the Year–now seems at least slightly within the realm of possibility. In the most comprehensive poll of Horse of the Year voters released so far, the NTRA’s Top 10 Thoroughbred poll, GI Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Accelerate (Lookin at Lucky) received 24 first-place votes to 19 for Justify.

[dilanesp]

Latest Paulick Report Poll


https://www.paulickreport.com/

Who would you vote for as North America's 2018 Horse of the Year?

Accelerate 41.51%

Justify 46.75%

Monomoy Girl 11.74%

A vote for Monomoy Girl is a vote for Justify.

We need all anti-Justify votes to be consolidated in Acceleeate.

[GMB@BP]

This horse of the year debate is kind of silly.

in 20 years when someone me mentions Accelerate people will say, yea I remember him a bit, good horse.

In 20 years when they say Justify everyone will know who he is and what he did.

This is a trophy and in some regards a political vote, history will dictate who the most accomplished horse was in the year 2018 in regards what they did on the track.

[Andy Asaro]

This horse of the year debate is kind of silly.

in 20 years when someone me mentions Accelerate people will say, yea I remember him a bit, good horse.

In 20 years when they say Justify everyone will know who he is and what he did.

This is a trophy and in some regards a political vote, history will dictate who the most accomplished horse was in the year 2018 in regards what they did on the track.

I mostly agree. My motivation is Baffert. I do believe Accelerate deserves it but I really hate to see Baffert rewarded for anything.

[dilanesp]

I mostly agree. My motivation is Baffert. I do believe Accelerate deserves it but I really hate to see Baffert rewarded for anything.

I don't hate Baffert. I hate the owners for retiring a horse after six races.

Baffert did an amazing job with Justify.

[Andy Asaro]

I don't hate Baffert. I hate the owners for retiring a horse after six races.

Baffert did an amazing job with Justify.

He was retired cuz he couldn't run anymore. Otherwise he'd have run in the Breeders' Cup for sure and possibly Pegasus. He was burned out physically IMO

[dilanesp]

He was retired cuz he couldn't run anymore. Otherwise he'd have run in the Breeders' Cup for sure and possibly Pegasus. He was burned out physically IMO

No, I think Justify could have been the soundest horse in history after the Belmont and they were going to find an excuse to retire him.

And I am highly skeptical that 6 races burned him out.

[Andy Asaro]

No, I think Justify could have been the soundest horse in history after the Belmont and they were going to find an excuse to retire him.

And I am highly skeptical that 6 races burned him out.

6 races in that short of a period of time would certainly burn a new 3yo out. They rushed him into the Derby and Triple Crown for the $$$$ and they got it.

[GMB@BP]

6 races in that short of a period of time would certainly burn a new 3yo out. They rushed him into the Derby and Triple Crown for the $$$$ and they got it.

I would be fine with that if I owned him.

I would rather win the triple crown than the BC and some important races at SA and Del Mar.

[Andy Asaro]

I would be fine with that if I owned him.

I would rather win the triple crown than the BC and some important races at SA and Del Mar.

Right. They didn't care about his career as a racehorse which is their right.

[Andy Asaro]

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=2393919#post2393919

[papillon]

Horseracing Nation has a list of it's writers (?) choices.

The break down was almost evenly male/female Accelerate/Justify. The women even used exclamation points. The lone male was about 18yrs old.

I showed it to a friend of mine, who is female her for take. She sighed and said, "That's the real reason we [women] always are taking one step forward, two steps back. Grown women basically saying 'because pretty pony'."

Someone over there also posted some sports (?) writers lists of best TC winners ranked.

One had Justify 4th, above Affirmed. AP was 8th.

The other, had Justify tied with Slew at 5th, ahead of War Admiral, Citation, and Whirlaway. He had AP above Slew.

I find this more than assinine, I find it offensive. Those who argue this horse, who never ran fast on any track by any clock and who's best left over competition is being hailed as world beater for winning a listed stakes over nothing, deserves to be HOTY because of an obsession with the TC, will cement this crap.

Fager never won it, and he's greater than all of them.

Magnum Moon entered the Derby on 4 wins, and he too never raced at 2. He did that in 4 months as well. Clearly he had a full and historic career, ended too soon by some unknown injury.

Yet Nyquist, meh. Blah. Nothing of a career. FWIW, Nyquist had to have colic surgey in early December 2015, they discovered he had a severe blockage of his intestine from blunt force trauma that must have happened months before. He would have suffered from malabsorption, which would have depleted his glycogen stores, making it impossible for him to sustain any physical exertion. O'Neil had to close Nyquist's twitter because people wouldn't stop saying he looked small and thin. Before the Preakness, Ron Ellis picked against him because he didn't look healthy. Oh, what might have been. Oh wait, he raced as a 2 year old and only won 8 in a row and the BCJ and Derby, what was I thinking.

[Spalding No!]

Yet Nyquist, meh. Blah. Nothing of a career. FWIW, Nyquist had to have colic surgey in early December 2015, they discovered he had a severe blockage of his intestine from blunt force trauma that must have happened months before. He would have suffered from malabsorption, which would have depleted his glycogen stores, making it impossible for him to sustain any physical exertion. O'Neil had to close Nyquist's twitter because people wouldn't stop saying he looked small and thin. Before the Preakness, Ron Ellis picked against him because he didn't look healthy. Oh, what might have been. Oh wait, he raced as a 2 year old and only won 8 in a row and the BCJ and Derby, what was I thinking.

Nyquist had colic surgery after he was retired, not before the Triple Crown. It was December 2016, not 2015.

Nyquist was retired because he had a leg injury (note he's on the California Vet List that was posted on another thread), not because of any gastrointestinal insult.

[GMB@BP]

Nyquist had colic surgery after he was retired, not before the Triple Crown. It was December 2016, not 2015.

Nyquist was retired because he had a leg injury (note he's on the California Vet List that was posted on another thread), not because of any gastrointestinal insult.

stop posting fake news here man

[dilanesp]

Someone over there also posted some sports (?) writers lists of best TC winners ranked.

One had Justify 4th, above Affirmed. AP was 8th.

The other, had Justify tied with Slew at 5th, ahead of War Admiral, Citation, and Whirlaway. He had AP above Slew.

This shouldn't surprise you. Horse racing's decline means that there aren't a lot of people who know even the basic history. The only horses from bygone eras who a lot of people can probably name are Man O'War and Seabiscuit, and neither one won the TC. (Of course, there's a lesson there for people who say that Justify will be "immortal" because he won the thing and did literally nothing else.)

To know how good Citation was, you have to know something about racing. You have to know how good some of the horses he beat (like Armed and Miss Grillo) were. You have to know how much faster the times he ran in 1950 were (including the ones when he was running second to Noor) compared to anything that had come before.

Few people know that anymore.

So they say "sure Justify's better than Citation. Justify's undefeated, right?".

[GMB@BP]

This shouldn't surprise you. Horse racing's decline means that there aren't a lot of people who know even the basic history. The only horses from bygone eras who a lot of people can probably name are Man O'War and Seabiscuit, and neither one won the TC. (Of course, there's a lesson there for people who say that Justify will be "immortal" because he won the thing and did literally nothing else.)

To know how good Citation was, you have to know something about racing. You have to know how good some of the horses he beat (like Armed and Miss Grillo) were. You have to know how much faster the times he ran in 1950 were (including the ones when he was running second to Noor) compared to anything that had come before.

Few people know that anymore.

So they say "sure Justify's better than Citation. Justify's undefeated, right?".

We have gone from saying Justify will be more remembered than Accelerate to bringing in Man O War, Seabiscuit and Citation. Talk about a straw man argument, your comparing immortal horse racing legends that no one contends Justify will be higher thought of than.

[dilanesp]

We have gone from saying Justify will be more remembered than Accelerate to bringing in Man O War, Seabiscuit and Citation. Talk about a straw man argument, your comparing immortal horse racing legends that no one contends Justify will be higher thought of than.

Except a poll says he is.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1062876880930394112

[Andy Asaro]

So, does Accelerate run another race to make the HOY year even tighter? Maybe on the Turf?

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1063148043174723584

[Fager Fan]

I'd vote for Accelerate.

I didn't find Justify very impressive. Triple Crown winner or not, I envision the two in a head-to-head and Accelerate whips him easy. That's what HOY is about. Who is the best horse of the year. Justify was only the best of his division, and he'll get the divisional award for that.

[Spalding No!]

That's what HOY is about. Who is the best horse of the year.
Actually, the only criteria is that a horse start at least once in North America. Turf horses have won it, injured 3yos that retired after the Belmont have won it, and dominant 2yos have won it.

As opposed to relying on a hypothetical head-to-head model, one could just as easily base it on the most impressive performance or "body of work".

Justify certainly fits the latter scheme, winning 6 races (from scratch) in the span of 110 days or so. In that time frame he won races from 7 furlongs to 12 furlongs. He was unbeaten. He won over 6 different distances. He won sprinting and routing. He won on fast tracks and off tracks. He won over 4 different racetracks in 4 states. He won the Triple Crown, only the 13th horse to do so in history. He's the only horse to have done so without starting as a 2yo.

3yos are rarely pitted against their elders until the fall, and Justify didn't make it to that part of the year due to injury. Rather than try and match him up to a 5yo Accelerate, an honest comparison to put Justify's accomplishments in perspective is to compare him to the 3yo Accelerate. Like Justify, Accelerate was also a late starting 3yo. He was a still a maiden after 3 starts during the 2016 Triple Crown.

Justify progressed at a phenomenal rate to make it to (and win) the Belmont Stakes. Accelerate's progression once he broke his maiden (July 2016) was impressive, too, as he finished out his 3yo campaign running 3rd in the BC Dirt Mile (a neck behind a likewise progressive Gun Runner), but it was not in the same stratosphere as Justify's...

As a 5yo, Accelerate won 4 races at Santa Anita, 1 at Del Mar, and won 1 of 2 starts on the road. The BC Classic this year was a modest bunch at best, with the 2nd and 3rd choices in the race being 3yos. Overall, the older horse division was underwhelming throughout the year.

The long and the short of it is that Justify one-upped all of US horse racing history by making his debut in February and carting off the Triple Crown barely 4 months later.

Accelerate--at best--one-upped Lava Man by taking the BC Classic at Churchill Downs after winning everything in California.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Which horse will be remembered 5/10/15 or 20 years from now.



That should be your vote.

[Fager Fan]

Actually, the only criteria is that a horse start at least once in North America. Turf horses have won it, injured 3yos that retired after the Belmont have won it, and dominant 2yos have won it.

As opposed to relying on a hypothetical head-to-head model, one could just as easily base it on the most impressive performance or "body of work".

Justify certainly fits the latter scheme, winning 6 races (from scratch) in the span of 110 days or so. In that time frame he won races from 7 furlongs to 12 furlongs. He was unbeaten. He won over 6 different distances. He won sprinting and routing. He won on fast tracks and off tracks. He won over 4 different racetracks in 4 states. He won the Triple Crown, only the 13th horse to do so in history. He's the only horse to have done so without starting as a 2yo.

3yos are rarely pitted against their elders until the fall, and Justify didn't make it to that part of the year due to injury. Rather than try and match him up to a 5yo Accelerate, an honest comparison to put Justify's accomplishments in perspective is to compare him to the 3yo Accelerate. Like Justify, Accelerate was also a late starting 3yo. He was a still a maiden after 3 starts during the 2016 Triple Crown.

Justify progressed at a phenomenal rate to make it to (and win) the Belmont Stakes. Accelerate's progression once he broke his maiden (July 2016) was impressive, too, as he finished out his 3yo campaign running 3rd in the BC Dirt Mile (a neck behind a likewise progressive Gun Runner), but it was not in the same stratosphere as Justify's...

As a 5yo, Accelerate won 4 races at Santa Anita, 1 at Del Mar, and won 1 of 2 starts on the road. The BC Classic this year was a modest bunch at best, with the 2nd and 3rd choices in the race being 3yos. Overall, the older horse division was underwhelming throughout the year.

The long and the short of it is that Justify one-upped all of US horse racing history by making his debut in February and carting off the Triple Crown barely 4 months later.

Accelerate--at best--one-upped Lava Man by taking the BC Classic at Churchill Downs after winning everything in California.

You actually think that a hypothetical match-up between the top two candidates, who shared the same distance and surface preferences, in the year of their candidacy, is a bad idea? And that the good idea is to compare the two when they were the same age but in different years?

Um, no. I don't really care when Justify started his career except in the sense that it added to the brevity of it. That he started so late and did what he did in the space of a few months just showed there wasn't much out there challenging him. Or that perhaps he was being given the same stuff that made Arrogate so great for a similar period of time before he was likewise done.

[ReplayRandall]

Um, no. I don't really care when Justify started his career except in the sense that it added to the brevity of it. That he started so late and did what he did in the space of a few months just showed there wasn't much out there challenging him. Or that perhaps he was being given the same stuff that made Arrogate so great for a similar period of time before he was likewise done.

"Given the same stuff"??…...You're Trashing two horses like Arrogate and Justify because you dislike Baffert?

Not even a remotely sane opinion Sport, get it fixed...:blush:

[Vinnie]

Which horse will be remembered 5/10/15 or 20 years from now.



That should be your vote.

Amen to that. Both horses are awesome, but, when in the world (more than not likely in most of our lifetimes) are you "ever" going to see what Justify accomplished in the manner that he did... The Triple Crown of 2018 was truly a Wow series of races in every sense of the word. :headbanger:

[Spalding No!]

You actually think that a hypothetical match-up between the top two candidates, who shared the same distance and surface preferences, in the year of their candidacy, is a bad idea?
Didn't go that far. I simply said, realistically, you don't see 3yos face their elders in the spring, and that's as far as Justify got in the season, so its hard to balance a hypothetical matchup between the two.

And that the good idea is to compare the two when they were the same age but in different years?
Again, it puts Justify's performance in perspective. I could have picked from thousands of similar historical late starters, but Accelerate was a fairly convenient foil.

Um, no. I don't really care when Justify started his career except in the sense that it added to the brevity of it.
Pulling off something that hadn't been done in 136 years does hold water for some people...

That he started so late and did what he did in the space of a few months just showed there wasn't much out there challenging him.
At the same time, Accelerate doing what he did (ringing up accolades in CA races-of-former-glory), is tempered by the fact that he skipped out on the Pegasus, the Dubai World Cup, and a sweet spot of racing between June and August (Met Mile, Stephen Foster, Whitney, etc.) that probably would have made him a more legitimate threat to the Triple Crown winner for HOY honors.

Or that perhaps he was being given the same stuff that made Arrogate so great for a similar period of time before he was likewise done.
Now we are getting into some of the underlying bias behind your opinion. A couple others here have admitted the same.

Meanwhile, Accelerate's trainer is no stranger to "edge taking"... and its on record. He had nearly half (16) of the 38 steroid positives among all California trainers in July 2008 (and got 4 more a month later) when anabolic regulations were first implemented, avoiding harsh punishment only because of a "phase in" period. It netted him a training title at the Del Mar meet with a ~30 % win rate.

[Fager Fan]

"Given the same stuff"??…...You're Trashing two horses like Arrogate and Justify because you dislike Baffert?

Not even a remotely sane opinion Sport, get it fixed...:blush:

Like you’ve never heard this opinion before, Sport?

When a trainer has 7 horses drop dead on the track for no explicable reason, then that’s on him, not the people who are able to add 2 plus 2.

[Fager Fan]

Spalding, not being ABLE to run after June of his 3yo year is on the horse. That's a defect, a flaw. In fact it's why he didn't run at 2 either.

I just didn't find the horse impressive. Baffert also trained Pharoah, but I still respected the obvious talent of that horse, so it's not nearly as much about the trainer as you want to think. AP was my choice for HOY, but not Justify.

I wouldn't touch this guy in the breeding shed either. Don't exactly want his fragile genes passed down.

[Spalding No!]

Spalding, not being ABLE to run after June of his 3yo year is on the horse. That's a defect, a flaw. In fact it's why he didn't run at 2 either.
I certainly don't want to give credit to Justify for retiring early. I'm only saying that because of that turn of events a hypothetical matchup (based on speed figures or what have you) is not practical or even fair.

In my opinion, its more appropriate to compare their individual campaigns within their respective divisions. Accelerate was 6 for 7, which holds up well, but he took a near 3-month break in the middle of the year and thus made just one more start than Justify. Also, as previously mentioned, he missed some important races against important rivals, in particular in-form Gun Runner and West Coast.

Justify achieved the highest goal of all male 3yos in the US. Like it or not, the classics are the pinnacle of the sport in basically all jurisdictions around the world. To dismiss them as merely "restricted" races (not saying you did) is disingenuous.

I just didn't find the horse impressive. Baffert also trained Pharoah, but I still respected the obvious talent of that horse, so it's not nearly as much about the trainer as you want to think. AP was my choice for HOY, but not Justify.

I wouldn't touch this guy in the breeding shed either. Don't exactly want his fragile genes passed down.
I would attribute at least some of Justify's physical woes to being put through the wringer to make the Kentucky Derby (and beyond) and not solely from some inherent "china doll" syndrome. If the latter was the case, I doubt he would have held up through the whole Triple Crown.

And while I don't think he had a "fake" injury as has been alleged elsewhere, it sounds as though the horse could have returned as a 4yo if desired. However, we'd probably be looking at another abbreviated 4yo campaign a la Sunday Silence and Easy Goer, both of whom had ankle issues at the end of their admittedly more arduous campaigns. So some of the backlash for retiring is not particularly warranted either.

[devilsbag]

This debate has been going on for a long time. If the Horse of the Year is supposed to be the fastest horse (at a classic distance), the champion older male would win most of the time. Now, it does seem like the older male is typically under consideration or arguably its for him to lose, but voters have been fairly open to the idea that it's more subjective than that.

A prime example is Zenyatta in 2010. Blame was the fastest on the track, but no one expected 60 Minutes to do a segment on Blame and voters (partially as payback for 2009) saw Zenyatta as the horse who defined that year. Some have suggested that it's who is most memorable, and that may not be such a bad definition.

Fager Fan, I'm very sympathetic to your stance on certain trainers. However, would you vote for anyone other than Justify as the champion three-year-old male? I'm suspecting not. For Horse of the Year, I think you too see it being more subjective, and whether it's his fragility, his trainer, or whatever, he doesn't deserve the title. It's a gut feeling and you're entitled to it. On the flip side, hopefully you can see the argument that the Triple Crown is of such importance, the fact he was undefeated, and that he was able to overcome Mike Smith, that some people would feel that makes Justify horse of the year over a horse who had a middle to above average older male campaign.

I would probably vote for Justify and suspect he will win, but it's interesting to see how many people are opposed to him. My feeling is that the biggest reason for it is that people want to punish early retirement, and I understand that too. It's been pointed out that Seattle Slew and Affirmed didn't do much the remainder of the year after their Belmont wins and still were voted Horse of the Year, and worse yet, Slew beat Affirmed twice and still didn't get the honors because of the value placed on the Triple Crown win.

[dilanesp]

Didn't go that far. I simply said, realistically, you don't see 3yos face their elders in the spring, and that's as far as Justify got in the season, so its hard to balance a hypothetical matchup between the two.


Again, it puts Justify's performance in perspective. I could have picked from thousands of similar historical late starters, but Accelerate was a fairly convenient foil.


Pulling off something that hadn't been done in 136 years does hold water for some people...


At the same time, Accelerate doing what he did (ringing up accolades in CA races-of-former-glory), is tempered by the fact that he skipped out on the Pegasus, the Dubai World Cup, and a sweet spot of racing between June and August (Met Mile, Stephen Foster, Whitney, etc.) that probably would have made him a more legitimate threat to the Triple Crown winner for HOY honors.


Now we are getting into some of the underlying bias behind your opinion. A couple others here have admitted the same.

Meanwhile, Accelerate's trainer is no stranger to "edge taking"... and its on record. He had nearly half (16) of the 38 steroid positives among all California trainers in July 2008 (and got 4 more a month later) when anabolic regulations were first implemented, avoiding harsh punishment only because of a "phase in" period. It netted him a training title at the Del Mar meet with a ~30 % win rate.

Spalding, the Stephen Foster was won by Pavel, a horse Accelerate repeatedly crushed. I hardly think Accelerate needed to run there to prove anything.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1063484075707523072


Excerpt:

“I might have missed it, but I haven't seen any story that pointed out that Accelerate, in winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic, hit a major milestone--winning four Grade 1 races at 1 1/4 miles on the dirt in a single year.

“Winning the Triple Crown is supposed to be one of the toughest achievements in horse racing, right ?

“Well, since the graded-race era began in 1973, there've been five Triple Crown winners.

“The number of horses that have won four Grade 1, mile and one-quarter races on dirt in a single year is only four.

“It might seem like a fairly unacknowledged accomplishment, but maybe it shouldn't be. Grade 1 races are the ultimate goal for any horse, and one mile and one-quarter on the dirt is still the classic distance in American racing and will remain so (because of the Kentucky Derby and the BC Classic) no matter how much money is thrown at turf races or nine-furlong dirt races (sorry Pegasus).

“Affirmed did it in 1979 winning the Strub, the Santa Anita Handicap, the Hollywood Gold Cup and the Woodward.

“Alysheba did it five times in 1988, opening his 4-year-old season with the Strub and the Big 'Cap and ending it with the Woodward, the Meadowlands Cup and the BC Classic.

“Cigar in 1995 won the Gulfstream Park Handicap, the Hollywood Gold Cup, the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the BC Classic.

“And now Accelerate has joined the club.

“The list of top horses that ran in the graded-stakes era but didn't hit the magic number of four includes Alydar, Forego, Spectacular Bid, Easy Goer, John Henry, Sunday Silence, Holy Bull, A.P. Indy, Best Pal, Skip Away, Curlin, Ghostzapper and Tiznow as well as Secretariat, Seattle Slew and the two most recent Triple Crown winners.

“Looking back through the DRF Champions book, the only pre-graded stakes horses I could find that probably would have been credited with four Grade 1 10-furlong wins in a year were Gun Bow in 1964 (Strub, Gulfstream Park Handicap, Brooklyn Handicap and Woodward) and Round Table in 1958 (SA Maturity, SA Handicap, Gulfstream Park Handicap and Woodward).

“Those that didn't make the list included Kelso, Dr. Fager, Damascus, Buckpasser, Sword Dancer, Bold Ruler, Swaps, Nashua, Citation and Seabiscuit.”

Interesting stats to chew on.

[ronsmac]

The Big Cap and Gold Cup are shells of their former selves. The Big Cap used to be one of my favorite races but it's starting to resemble the Jockey Club Gold Cup these days. Grade ones in name only.

[Fager Fan]

This debate has been going on for a long time. If the Horse of the Year is supposed to be the fastest horse (at a classic distance), the champion older male would win most of the time. Now, it does seem like the older male is typically under consideration or arguably its for him to lose, but voters have been fairly open to the idea that it's more subjective than that.

A prime example is Zenyatta in 2010. Blame was the fastest on the track, but no one expected 60 Minutes to do a segment on Blame and voters (partially as payback for 2009) saw Zenyatta as the horse who defined that year. Some have suggested that it's who is most memorable, and that may not be such a bad definition.

Fager Fan, I'm very sympathetic to your stance on certain trainers. However, would you vote for anyone other than Justify as the champion three-year-old male? I'm suspecting not. For Horse of the Year, I think you too see it being more subjective, and whether it's his fragility, his trainer, or whatever, he doesn't deserve the title. It's a gut feeling and you're entitled to it. On the flip side, hopefully you can see the argument that the Triple Crown is of such importance, the fact he was undefeated, and that he was able to overcome Mike Smith, that some people would feel that makes Justify horse of the year over a horse who had a middle to above average older male campaign.

I would probably vote for Justify and suspect he will win, but it's interesting to see how many people are opposed to him. My feeling is that the biggest reason for it is that people want to punish early retirement, and I understand that too. It's been pointed out that Seattle Slew and Affirmed didn't do much the remainder of the year after their Belmont wins and still were voted Horse of the Year, and worse yet, Slew beat Affirmed twice and still didn't get the honors because of the value placed on the Triple Crown win.

Hi Devils,

I was a kid and also not into racing in the 70s so I missed seeing those play out as they happened. I envisioned what a TC winner would feel like, what I believed I was seeing out there, and AP was at least close. Justify, not at all. Yes, he won 3 races that have that big title of TC, but it still felt to me that I was seeing just an above average horse beating average foes during this short stretch of time.

I don't believe any race or series of races is the end-all-be-all, and seeing a horse win the TC only confirms to me that it may not take a truly exceptional horse to win it but instead a very nice horse who met the right set of circumstances and competition. Real Quiet, remember, was a whisker from being a TC winner too, and although nice, not a truly exceptional horse. And we have to remember that the TC has been watered down now by the horses that skip legs and common ownership removing competitors from the fields. It used to be that if you had one of the best 3yos, then damnit, you ran in all 3 legs as long as your horse was standing on 4. Not anymore.

As it does for me in most years, I think the divisional awards are to reward the best in a division, and the HOY is for the BEST horse of the year. When appropriate (meaning not absolutely decided on the track and running on the same surface/distance) then I do envision the hypothetical. I think Accelerate beats him, and beats him easy had Justify been in the Classic.

So Accelerate is my HOY.

[dilanesp]

The Big Cap and Gold Cup are shells of their former selves. The Big Cap used to be one of my favorite races but it's starting to resemble the Jockey Club Gold Cup these days. Grade ones in name only.

That's really true of the entire "Handicap" schedule.

The races that matter are the BC Classic and the Pegasus.

But the thing is, if you have a BC Classic winner who also has a great season in the handicap division, that's the benchmark for HOTY. Because those are unrestricted races.

[dilanesp]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1063484075707523072


Excerpt:

“I might have missed it, but I haven't seen any story that pointed out that Accelerate, in winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic, hit a major milestone--winning four Grade 1 races at 1 1/4 miles on the dirt in a single year.

“Winning the Triple Crown is supposed to be one of the toughest achievements in horse racing, right ?

“Well, since the graded-race era began in 1973, there've been five Triple Crown winners.

“The number of horses that have won four Grade 1, mile and one-quarter races on dirt in a single year is only four.

“It might seem like a fairly unacknowledged accomplishment, but maybe it shouldn't be. Grade 1 races are the ultimate goal for any horse, and one mile and one-quarter on the dirt is still the classic distance in American racing and will remain so (because of the Kentucky Derby and the BC Classic) no matter how much money is thrown at turf races or nine-furlong dirt races (sorry Pegasus).

“Affirmed did it in 1979 winning the Strub, the Santa Anita Handicap, the Hollywood Gold Cup and the Woodward.

“Alysheba did it five times in 1988, opening his 4-year-old season with the Strub and the Big 'Cap and ending it with the Woodward, the Meadowlands Cup and the BC Classic.

“Cigar in 1995 won the Gulfstream Park Handicap, the Hollywood Gold Cup, the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the BC Classic.

“And now Accelerate has joined the club.

“The list of top horses that ran in the graded-stakes era but didn't hit the magic number of four includes Alydar, Forego, Spectacular Bid, Easy Goer, John Henry, Sunday Silence, Holy Bull, A.P. Indy, Best Pal, Skip Away, Curlin, Ghostzapper and Tiznow as well as Secretariat, Seattle Slew and the two most recent Triple Crown winners.

“Looking back through the DRF Champions book, the only pre-graded stakes horses I could find that probably would have been credited with four Grade 1 10-furlong wins in a year were Gun Bow in 1964 (Strub, Gulfstream Park Handicap, Brooklyn Handicap and Woodward) and Round Table in 1958 (SA Maturity, SA Handicap, Gulfstream Park Handicap and Woodward).

“Those that didn't make the list included Kelso, Dr. Fager, Damascus, Buckpasser, Sword Dancer, Bold Ruler, Swaps, Nashua, Citation and Seabiscuit.”

Interesting stats to chew on.

I agree with all of this.

[Spalding No!]

I agree with all of this.
It's actually not that compelling and more of a statistical acrobatic feat than anything else. A lot of those horses that 'failed' to win 4 Grade 1s at 10 furlongs didn't because they were busy winning races at 12, 13, and even 16 furlongs as 10 furlongs was only considered a middle distance...as it still is in Europe...then.

Would Forego or Buckpasser or Damascus have failed to win the JCGC or Woodward if those races were 10 furlongs back in the day?

John Henry won between 10-14 furlongs 7 times in 1980, 8 times in 1981, and 6 times in 1984; but Accelerate trumped him in 2018? Laughable.

[dilanesp]

It's actually not that compelling and more of a statistical acrobatic feat than anything else. A lot of those horses that 'failed' to win 4 Grade 1s at 10 furlongs didn't because they were busy winning races at 12, 13, and even 16 furlongs as 10 furlongs was only considered a middle distance...as it still is in Europe...then.

Would Forego or Buckpasser or Damascus have failed to win the JCGC or Woodward if those races were 10 furlongs back in the day?

John Henry won between 10-14 furlongs 7 times in 1980, 8 times in 1981, and 6 times in 1984; but Accelerate trumped him in 2018? Laughable.

Well John Henry had 4 great years. Very few horses do.

But there were plenty of 1 1/4 mile races back in the day, and horses ran more often. So it wasn't THAT hard to win 4 1 1/4 mile races. (For instance, while the JCGC wasn't 1 1/4 miles, Belmont often had a 1 1/4 mile race in the fall, whether it was the Woodward or the Marlboro. And the Suburban was a bigger deal back then, and was always 1 1/4 miles on or around July 4. The Gulfstream Park Handicap was a significant race at 1 1/4 miles too. And there were 1 1/4 mile turf races like the Arlington Million as well.)

Spalding, I will admit one thing. One of the reasons I really hate giving HOTY to Justify is I dislike what he represents. He didn't run as a 2 year old, ran 6 times, did just enough to get into the history books, and then was retired with a minor injury that should have never resulted in his retirement.

So yes, I want to punish the owners in any way possible. Accelerate had a year that I am sure you would concede would win HOTY in most years, so that's fine, he's a good vehicle. But I think Justify's owners are shameful.

I *don't* think Justify's injury was trumped up-- it is more like "almost all horses have minor injuries that could be used as an excuse to retire the horse if you can make $60 million, so they found one". And I don't think allegations of routine doping against Baffert have been proving. He is a great trainer who did a great job with Justify.

It's just that Justify, to me, represents everything that is wrong with horse racing. Do just enough to get stud value, and then retire and deny the public the opportunity to see him run. It sucks.

[Fager Fan]

Just to be clear, the proof against Baffert was the bodies of the 7 dead horses. Most trainers don’t have 1 in their entire career that drops inexplicably dead. Baffert had 7 in a short time frame, but not such a short time frame that it could be chalked up to contamination. Mind you, Baffert wasn’t the only one. There were other trainers in CA (and some on the East coast) who had horses dropping dead at the same time. There is only ONE thing that can explain this, and that’s that Baffert and some other trainers were experimenting with some illegal drug.

Note how the horses stopped dropping dead after the news of this blew up in the press.

[Andy Asaro]

Just to be clear, the proof against Baffert was the bodies of the 7 dead horses. Most trainers don’t have 1 in their entire career that drops inexplicably dead. Baffert had 7 in a short time frame, but not such a short time frame that it could be chalked up to contamination. Mind you, Baffert wasn’t the only one. There were other trainers in CA (and some on the East coast) who had horses dropping dead at the same time. There is only ONE thing that can explain this, and that’s that Baffert and some other trainers were experimenting with some illegal drug.

Note how the horses stopped dropping dead after the news of this blew up in the press.

:ThmbUp:

[Spalding No!]

Note how the horses stopped dropping dead after the news of this blew up in the press.
Not true.

Here is a quote from the latest annual post mortem examination report (for the fiscal year 2016-2017) published by the CHRB last month:

The number of unexplained sudden deaths in horses remains relatively high with 12 cases reported during this period.

Meanwhile, according to the the New York Gaming Commission's Equine Incident Database, in the last 6 weeks there have been 5 equine fatalities designated as either "collapsed", "collapsed and died", or "died after finishline-possible aneurysm" at NYRA tracks...

[Andy Asaro]

Not true.

Here is a quote from the latest annual post mortem examination report (for the fiscal year 2016-2017) published by the CHRB last month:

The number of unexplained sudden deaths in horses remains relatively high with 12 cases reported during this period.

Meanwhile, according to the the New York Gaming Commission's Equine Incident Database, in the last 6 weeks there have been 5 equine fatalities designated as either "collapsed", "collapsed and died", or "died after finishline-possible aneurysm" at NYRA tracks...

At a certain point their bodies can't take it anymore and they fall apart IMO. Hopefully they're retired before they drop dead but this is and has been a big problem IMO

[GMB@BP]

Just to be clear, the proof against Baffert was the bodies of the 7 dead horses. Most trainers don’t have 1 in their entire career that drops inexplicably dead. Baffert had 7 in a short time frame, but not such a short time frame that it could be chalked up to contamination. Mind you, Baffert wasn’t the only one. There were other trainers in CA (and some on the East coast) who had horses dropping dead at the same time. There is only ONE thing that can explain this, and that’s that Baffert and some other trainers were experimenting with some illegal drug.

Note how the horses stopped dropping dead after the news of this blew up in the press.

when in rome, do as the romans.

[Fager Fan]

This is from an article just written last month:

From data collected between 2007 and 2013 in California, approximately one sudden death occurred per 9,000 starts, and about one sudden death per 160,000 training days.

So let that stat sink in and consider:

Between 2011 and 2013, seven Bob Baffert trained horses died suddenly during training. A subsequent CHRB report noted that the horses had been administered thyroxine–a thyroid hormone used to treat hypothyroid conditions–and that use of thyroxine is “concerning in horses with suspected cardiac failure.”

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/sudden-cardiac-death-in-racehorses-what-we-know-and-still-dont/

And for those who want or need a reminder from when this occurred:

https://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/11/sports/california-examines-puzzling-trend-of-horses-sudden-deaths.html

[GMB@BP]

This is from an article just written last month:

From data collected between 2007 and 2013 in California, approximately one sudden death occurred per 9,000 starts, and about one sudden death per 160,000 training days.

So let that stat sink in and consider:

Between 2011 and 2013, seven Bob Baffert trained horses died suddenly during training. A subsequent CHRB report noted that the horses had been administered thyroxine–a thyroid hormone used to treat hypothyroid conditions–and that use of thyroxine is “concerning in horses with suspected cardiac failure.”

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/sudden-cardiac-death-in-racehorses-what-we-know-and-still-dont/

And for those who want or need a reminder from when this occurred:

https://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/11/sports/california-examines-puzzling-trend-of-horses-sudden-deaths.html

whatever baffert is doing, does he have some kind of patent on it so no one else can do the same thing?

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/NTRA/status/1064974045920313344

[ronsmac]

https://twitter.com/NTRA/status/1064974045920313344I'll take Justify by ko in the 4th round.

[bobphilo]

Accelerate deserves to be HOTY but the voters will likely play to the ignorant masses who are not racing fans and only are interested in the Ky Derby and the other Triple Crown races if their is a TC at stake, and elect Justify. The problem is these people don' care or even know about the Eclipse Awards, so their will be an injustice for no reason. Even if they do care, this will only justify the belief that racing only matters for a couple of months each year (pun intended).

[classhandicapper]

These awards are subjective.

Should you be voting for the best horse, the horse that accomplished the most, should speed figures matter, whose speed figures, should it be mostly about Grade 1 and other Graded victories, should you include trips if you believe a certain horse was way better than he/she finished in a significant race, does heads up count more, does longevity of campaign count, do foreign races count if the horse raced in the US also, do turf races count for the non turf categories, if yes, do they count as much as dirt races, do 3yo Grade 1s count as much as open races etc...

There are no rules.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1070423598802718720

[classhandicapper]

It's an interesting debate.

I think Accelerate was the better horse, but Justify may have been the more talented horse. We just didn't get to see him develop because even at the end he was still very lightly raced and IMO possibly not 100%.

Both had amazing campaigns in terms of accomplishments, but both took advantage of some very weak fields in their division along the way.

I still haven't made up my mind.

I wonder what the odds line would be on who wins?

[BaBaBooey]

Justify - Triple Crown Winner - 'nuf said

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/Perf_Genetics/status/1071833824852627456

[cj]

It's an interesting debate.

I think Accelerate was the better horse, but Justify may have been the more talented horse. We just didn't get to see him develop because even at the end he was still very lightly raced and IMO possibly not 100%.

Both had amazing campaigns in terms of accomplishments, but both took advantage of some very weak fields in their division along the way.

I still haven't made up my mind.

I wonder what the odds line would be on who wins?

Justify 1-5
Accelerate 6-1
Monomoy Girl 50-1

(No takeout)

[v j stauffer]

Post #142 in this thread. My first.

Justify today named #16 in ESPN's Dominant 20! for 2018.

Nobody that works at ESPN, with the possible exception of Kenny Mayne, has ever heard of Accelerate.

Meaning

Justify 99.8%

Accelerate 0.1%

Asaro 0.1%

[dilanesp]

Post #142 in this thread. My first.

Justify today named #16 in ESPN's Dominant 20! for 2018.

Nobody that works at ESPN, with the possible exception of Kenny Mayne, has ever heard of Accelerate.

Meaning

Justify 99.8%

Accelerate 0.1%

Asaro 0.1%

Quite true, but that is exactly a demonstration of how sick our sport is. The only way we get attention is if a horse wins 3 restricted stakes and if he or she does, it doesn't matter if the horse has a 6 race 5 month career with no real accomplishments whatsoever.

[bobphilo]

Quite true, but that is exactly a demonstration of how sick our sport is. The only way we get attention is if a horse wins 3 restricted stakes and if he or she does, it doesn't matter if the horse has a 6 race 5 month career with no real accomplishments whatsoever.

I agree. This poll says lot more about the ignorance of horse racing of ESPNs staff than it does about who should get HOY.

Regardless of who one supports for HOY, anyone who has never even heard of Accelerate doesn't know shit from shinola about horse racing and their opinion means nothing.

[bobphilo]

It's an interesting debate.

I think Accelerate was the better horse, but Justify may have been the more talented horse. We just didn't get to see him develop because even at the end he was still very lightly raced and IMO possibly not 100%.

Both had amazing campaigns in terms of accomplishments, but both took advantage of some very weak fields in their division along the way.

I still haven't made up my mind.

I wonder what the odds line would be on who wins?

HOTY should go to the horse that has actually accomplished more against all comers in open competition throughout the year. It has nothing to do with what promise a young horse has shown it may someday achieve if it meets open competition. Justify would be a good candidate for most promising newcomer award this year if such an award existed.

[GMB@BP]

HOTY should go to the horse that has actually accomplished more against all comers in open competition throughout the year. It has nothing to do with what promise a young horse has shown it may someday achieve if it meets open competition. Justify would be a good candidate for most promising newcomer award this year if such an award existed.

You just excluded pretty much all three year olds and female horses.

[cj]

HOTY should go to the horse that has actually accomplished more against all comers in open competition throughout the year. It has nothing to do with what promise a young horse has shown it may someday achieve if it meets open competition. Justify would be a good candidate for most promising newcomer award this year if such an award existed.

This is the subjective part. There are no guidelines sent with the ballot. One person sees the Triple Crown as JV quality, others see it as the pinnacle of the sport. I'm somewhat torn on my vote. But the more I look at the quality of the competition Accelerate beat, including in the Classic, I think he might be fool's gold. The only horse he beat all year that was G1 quality in my opinion was City of Light, and that one was in a race much too far for that horse.

[aaron]

This is the subjective part. There are no guidelines sent with the ballot. One person sees the Triple Crown as JV quality, others see it as the pinnacle of the sport. I'm somewhat torn on my vote. But the more I look at the quality of the competition Accelerate beat, including in the Classic, I think he might be fool's gold. The only horse he beat all year that was G1 quality in my opinion was City of Light, and that one was in a race much too far for that horse.

Has a Triple Crown Horse ever not won HOY ? I think Seattle Slew vs Forego was close. Unfortunately for racing CJ has pointed out how weak and uninspiring the handicap division has become. Are there any real G1 horses anymore ?

[dilanesp]

This is the subjective part. There are no guidelines sent with the ballot. One person sees the Triple Crown as JV quality, others see it as the pinnacle of the sport. I'm somewhat torn on my vote. But the more I look at the quality of the competition Accelerate beat, including in the Classic, I think he might be fool's gold. The only horse he beat all year that was G1 quality in my opinion was City of Light, and that one was in a race much too far for that horse.

Let's suppose Justify loses the Preakness by a nose.

Now who gets HOTY, him or Accelerate?

So basically running a half length faster made the difference?

[groupie doll]

Has a Triple Crown Horse ever not won HOY ?
yes, Omaha.

[cj]

Let's suppose Justify loses the Preakness by a nose.

Now who gets HOTY, him or Accelerate?

So basically running a half length faster made the difference?

I don't see why not? Isn't winning races in a game fashion a quality? Big margins are sometimes the mark of greatness, more often the mark of poor fields behind you.

Now go read my post in the roulette bet thread to see where you erred. :)

[aaron]

Let's suppose Justify loses the Preakness by a nose.

Now who gets HOTY, him or Accelerate?

So basically running a half length faster made the difference?

Good point.
Accelerate,probably by a landslide.

[classhandicapper]

This is the subjective part. There are no guidelines sent with the ballot. One person sees the Triple Crown as JV quality, others see it as the pinnacle of the sport. I'm somewhat torn on my vote. But the more I look at the quality of the competition Accelerate beat, including in the Classic, I think he might be fool's gold. The only horse he beat all year that was G1 quality in my opinion was City of Light, and that one was in a race much too far for that horse.

That's kind of where I am also.

The people that are in favor of Accelerate getting it are building their case partly on the fact that they think the 3yo crop was so weak. IMO, it was weak But so was the older male division that Accelerate had such a great year in. The best horse he faced was probably City of Light and they split. West Coast is not the same horse he was. Dr Door, Pavel, Mubtaahij, Gunnevera etc... are not high level Grade 1 competition imo.

[dilanesp]

I don't see why not? Isn't winning races in a game fashion a quality? Big margins are sometimes the mark of greatness, more often the mark of poor fields behind you.

Now go read my post in the roulette bet thread to see where you erred. :)

I thought it was valid so I didn't post a response. :)

[dilanesp]

That's kind of where I am also.

The people that are in favor of Accelerate getting it are building their case partly on the fact that they think the 3yo crop was so weak. IMO, it was weak But so was the older male division that Accelerate had such a great year in. The best horse he faced was probably City of Light and they split. West Coast is not the same horse he was. Dr Door, Pavel, Mubtaahij, Gunnevera etc... are not high level Grade 1 competition imo.

I don't think that's the main issue.

The main issue is Accelerate had a classic HOTY season, winning a bunch of major stakes at 1 1/4 miles including the BC Classic. Justify was a 6 race 5 month flash in the pan who never faced an older horse.

No horse with Justify's record would ever beat a horse with Accelerate's, except for the fact that Justify's 6 wins against 3 year olds include three specific races.

[bobphilo]

You just excluded pretty much all three year olds and female horses.

Except for the real good ones that are worthy of this top honor.

[bobphilo]

I don't think that's the main issue.

The main issue is Accelerate had a classic HOTY season, winning a bunch of major stakes at 1 1/4 miles including the BC Classic. Justify was a 6 race 5 month flash in the pan who never faced an older horse.

No horse with Justify's record would ever beat a horse with Accelerate's, except for the fact that Justify's 6 wins against 3 year olds include three specific races.

It depends on what one believes are the most important races. To the non-racing fan the only races they care or even know about are the Kentucky Derby and the other TC races. To those that are knowledgeable fans of the sport they believe that racing is more than a 6 week a year sport and place greater value on Gr1 wins in open competition throughout the year with special emphasis on the BC Classic.

[GMB@BP]

Let's suppose Justify loses the Preakness by a nose.

Now who gets HOTY, him or Accelerate?

So basically running a half length faster made the difference?

that nose means an awful lot historically speaking. many others have lost a TC race by a nose, thats why winning all three is special.

[GMB@BP]

Except for the real good ones that are worthy of this top honor.

I would argue there has never been a 3 year old or female horse who as stated had a campaign "competed in open races to all comers"

[dilanesp]

It depends on what one believes are the most important races. To the non-racing fan the only races they care or even know about are the Kentucky Derby and the other TC races. To those that are knowledgeable fans of the sport they believe that racing is more than a 6 week a year sport and place greater value on Gr1 wins in open competition throughout the year with special emphasis on the BC Classic.

The problem with that argument is we don't treat the 3 year old classics as more important than the handicaps and the BC Classic unless a horse wins all 3, and then, suddenly, we treat them as the most important thing in the world.

[ReplayRandall]

that nose means an awful lot historically speaking. many others have lost a TC race by a nose, thats why winning all three is special.
Real Quiet comes to mind in 1998....

[cj]

The problem with that argument is we don't treat the 3 year old classics as more important than the handicaps and the BC Classic unless a horse wins all 3, and then, suddenly, we treat them as the most important thing in the world.

I don't buy that. Check 1999, 2001, and 2014 HOY winners.

[dilanesp]

I don't buy that. Check 1999, 2001, and 2014 HOY winners.

A horse with Accelerate's record would have won those years.

[cj]

A horse with Accelerate's record would have won those years.

Probably, as the division had actual competition. This year did not IMO. The "G1" group of older males was as bad or worse than the 3yo group.

[aaron]

Probably, as the division had actual competition. This year did not IMO. The "G1" group of older males was as bad or worse than the 3yo group.

With,that one statement, we have the state of racing in 2018.

[groupie doll]

The award started a year after his 3 year old season, would have been tough to win it. facts matter!

True, but the award was given retrospectively and the other previous TC winners were honored with the award. This honor was not extended to Omaha. He is the only exception though since Discovery was awarded that year.
Whether or not a person thinks Justify is deserving he should walk away with the Eclipse.

[bobphilo]

I would argue there has never been a 3 year old or female horse who as stated had a campaign "competed in open races to all comers"

Are you forgetting BC Classic winner American Pharoah. I believe that was open to all comers and included the best horses in racing. That was the culminating part of AP's campaign.

[GMB@BP]

Are you forgetting BC Classic winner American Pharoah. I believe that was open to all comers and included the best horses in racing. That was the culminating part of AP's campaign.

that was 1 race, so one race is competing in races for all comers? He raced in restricted races all year long till the end.

[dilanesp]

Probably, as the division had actual competition. This year did not IMO. The "G1" group of older males was as bad or worse than the 3yo group.

The actual competition kept on losing to Accelerate. Whereas in those years you mentioned they took turns beating each other and left it open for the 3 year old.

Accelerate beat stakes winners. He beat Pavel. He beat Mubtahij. He beat City of Light. They might have each won some more if Accelerate wasn't around to beat them.

[cj]

The actual competition kept on losing to Accelerate. Whereas in those years you mentioned they took turns beating each other and left it open for the 3 year old.

Accelerate beat stakes winners. He beat Pavel. He beat Mubtahij. He beat City of Light. They might have each won some more if Accelerate wasn't around to beat them.

True, but as a speed figure guy I know they weren't very good. Justify was very good compared to other winners of the races.

Also, if beating stakes winners is a measure, Justify beat a slew of them.

[dilanesp]

True, but as a speed figure guy I know they weren't very good. Justify was very good compared to other winners of the races.

Also, if beating stakes winners is a measure, Justify beat a slew of them.

If your figures gave Justify big numbers I can't argue that obviously. I do know that Justify's Beyers for the TC were pretty ordinary. Put Accelerate in the Preakness and he wins by a distance.

[cj]

If your figures gave Justify big numbers I can't argue that obviously. I do know that Justify's Beyers for the TC were pretty ordinary. Put Accelerate in the Preakness and he wins by a distance.

I should hope so as a fully matured 5yo.

[bobphilo]

I should hope so as a fully matured 5yo.

Right, horses get better as they mature. That's why more mature horses like Accelerate are better candidates for HOY. That's also a good incentive to keep horses racing longer. Reward those that stick around long enough to show their best when fully mature and build a fan base.

[cj]

Right, horses get better as they mature. That's why more mature horses like Accelerate are better candidates for HOY. That's also a good incentive to keep horses racing longer. Reward those that stick around long enough to show their best when fully mature and build a fan base.

I hear that fan base argument all the time, but did it really help with horses like Zenyatta and California Chrome? I'd also argue that nobody was showing up to the racetrack this year specifically to see Accelerate. Horses today don't race often enough for that.

[Tom]

Are you forgetting BC Classic winner American Pharoah. I believe that was open to all comers and included the best horses in racing. That was the culminating part of AP's campaign.

Secretariat, after the TC.

[dilanesp]

I hear that fan base argument all the time, but did it really help with horses like Zenyatta and California Chrome? I'd also argue that nobody was showing up to the racetrack this year specifically to see Accelerate. Horses today don't race often enough for that.

I agree, if HOTY is about popularity, Justify wins.

The problem is a lot of us think it is about achievement and winning the races that draw the fastest horses.

[cj]

I agree, if HOTY is about popularity, Justify wins.

The problem is a lot of us think it is about achievement and winning the races that draw the fastest horses.

That wasn't the point I was making, just responding to a post. I wouldn't say those older horse races in Cali drew fast horses this year. Just one really.

[Spalding No!]

No horse with Justify's record would ever beat a horse with Accelerate's, except for the fact that Justify's 6 wins against 3 year olds include three specific races.
Interesting spin. Numbers for Justify but none for Accelerate.

Justify, as you said, started (and won) 6 times in a 5 month stretch including 3 major stakes at classic distances.

Accelerate started 7 times (i.e., once more than Justify, same number of wins) in an 11 month stretch including 4 major stakes at classic distances.

Who had the more difficult campaign?

[thaskalos]

Interesting spin. Numbers for Justify but none for Accelerate.

Justify, as you said, started (and won) 6 times in a 5 month stretch including 3 major stakes at classic distances.

Accelerate started 7 times (i.e., once more than Justify, same number of wins) in an 11 month stretch including 4 major stakes at classic distances.

Who had the more difficult campaign?

I was impressed by D. Wayne Lukas's argument...where he explained that Justify had the more difficult campaign, because the Triple Crown races were already pre-scheduled...whereas Accelerate's races were plan-as-you-go affairs...where scheduling alterations could easily be made to better suit the horse.

But Lukas then goes on to predict that Justify would have beaten Accelerate in the BC Classic...so he loses whatever credit his prior argument had garnered.

[cj]

I was impressed by D. Wayne Lukas's argument...where he explained that Justify had the more difficult campaign, because the Triple Crown races were already pre-scheduled...whereas Accelerate's races were plan-as-you-go affairs...where scheduling alterations could easily be made to better suit the horse.

But Lukas then goes on to predict that Justify would have beaten Accelerate in the BC Classic...so he loses whatever credit his prior argument had garnered.

I'm curious as to why you think that? If he stayed healthy and in training I think he'd have beaten him too. I'm not sure he could have beaten the Accelerate we saw in the Pacific Classic, but the one I saw in the Awesome Again and the BC Classic didn't look very good to me, just beating up on some G2/G3 types. He is a solid G1 horse that I think was tailing off.

[classhandicapper]

But Lukas then goes on to predict that Justify would have beaten Accelerate in the BC Classic...so he loses whatever credit his prior argument had garnered.

I can see arguing that Accelerate would have won, but I don't think you can dismiss Justify winning.

Justify is a 3yo. There is never a guarantee that a 3yo will develop and go forward, but most lightly raced healthy ones do. He was especially lightly raced and may not have been 100% at the end. Plus, I would argue he was probably a little better than his winning margins and final time figures suggested during the Triple Crown given the race flows in those races. He was the best of a fairly weak crop, but he was clearly best and I doubt we saw his best.

[dilanesp]

Interesting spin. Numbers for Justify but none for Accelerate.

Justify, as you said, started (and won) 6 times in a 5 month stretch including 3 major stakes at classic distances.

Accelerate started 7 times (i.e., once more than Justify, same number of wins) in an 11 month stretch including 4 major stakes at classic distances.

Who had the more difficult campaign?

Accelerate by far. Justify never ran in an unrestricted race and ran speed figures several lengths slower.

[cj]

Accelerate by far. Justify never ran in an unrestricted race and ran speed figures several lengths slower.

Come on. Beating up on Prime Attraction and Dr. Dorr in smallish fields most of the time is tough, with well space racing?

The more I look at the chart of the Classic, that race is in contention for the worst BC Classic of all time.

[GMB@BP]

Come on. Beating up on Prime Attraction and Dr. Dorr in smallish fields most of the time is tough, with well space racing?

The more I look at the chart of the Classic, that race is in contention for the worst BC Classic of all time.

Just curious, what was Justify's Derby pace adjusted figure and Accelerates for the BC?

[cj]

Just curious, what was Justify's Derby pace adjusted figure and Accelerates for the BC?


127 for both, and both carrying 126 though one was obviously a young 3yo.

[Spalding No!]

Accelerate by far. Justify never ran in an unrestricted race and ran speed figures several lengths slower.
It's quite disingenuous to refer to the classics simply as "restricted" races as though they do not hold special value in terms of history, prestige, and tradition.

If that contention were even remotely close to reality, there would be plenty of posters on here suggesting that Catholic Boy should be named champion 3yo, never mind the HOY debate.

The only meaningful comparison using speed figures is at 9 furlongs on a fast track, as Justify only ran on sloppy tracks at 9.5f and 10f and Accelerate did not attempt 12 furlongs.

Justify: 107 BSF Santa Anita Derby

Accelerate: 101 BSF San Pasqual
107 BSF Oaklawn Handicap (2nd)
100 BSF Awesome Again

[Buckeye]

In a word no.

[Fager Fan]

I hear that fan base argument all the time, but did it really help with horses like Zenyatta and California Chrome? I'd also argue that nobody was showing up to the racetrack this year specifically to see Accelerate. Horses today don't race often enough for that.

What races did people show up for to see the TC winner? The ones where we see how quick he could circle his stall?

[cj]

What races did people show up for to see the TC winner? The ones where we see how quick he could circle his stall?

I was merely countering the point that Accelerate should be voted for to encourage people to keep horses in training longer and bring more fans to the game. It hasn't worked whether we are talking about an older horse or a Triple Crown winner.

[Fager Fan]

I was merely countering the point that Accelerate should be voted for to encourage people to keep horses in training longer and bring more fans to the game. It hasn't worked whether we are talking about an older horse or a Triple Crown winner.

That is true. All those years they thought a TC winner would save the sport. Clearly not.

[rastajenk]

Who is "they?" I think the most informed observers believed, at the most, a TC winner would provide a temporary booster shot for a few months, but never believed in total salvation.

[GMB@BP]

127 for both, and both carrying 126 though one was obviously a young 3yo.

yea, no chance Justify could compete as he got older, outclassed.

[dilanesp]

It's quite disingenuous to refer to the classics simply as "restricted" races as though they do not hold special value in terms of history, prestige, and tradition.

If that contention were even remotely close to reality, there would be plenty of posters on here suggesting that Catholic Boy should be named champion 3yo, never mind the HOY debate.

The only meaningful comparison using speed figures is at 9 furlongs on a fast track, as Justify only ran on sloppy tracks at 9.5f and 10f and Accelerate did not attempt 12 furlongs.

Justify: 107 BSF Santa Anita Derby

Accelerate: 101 BSF San Pasqual
107 BSF Oaklawn Handicap (2nd)
100 BSF Awesome Again

1 1/4 mles is the most important distance, Spalding.

And yes, just because they wear fancy hats at the Derby doesn't mean we forget that it is a restricted race.

[dilanesp]

Come on. Beating up on Prime Attraction and Dr. Dorr in smallish fields most of the time is tough, with well space racing?

The more I look at the chart of the Classic, that race is in contention for the worst BC Classic of all time.

Cat Thief and Arcangues would like a word with you.

[cj]

Cat Thief and Arcangues would like a word with you.

I'd have to look at those fields again, but this one was atrocious outside the winner.

[Track Phantom]

Here is the issue: Horse of the Year is too vague and not well-defined. Thus, we're all using our own interpretation of Horse of the Year. In addition, we don't agree where the Triple Crown ranks in importance. It is obviously at the top for those outside of horse racing because that is really all they are exposed to.

Furthermore, is it fair to penalize horses for an abbreviated career/season? Is it also fair to consider the possibility that a horse may have won by way of performance enhancers?

My personal opinion is the Triple Crown races are actually "restricted" (to three-year old's) and should be weighted accordingly. I also believe a three-year old that does not face older horses has to be so dominant in his division to remove any doubt that he was the best horse overall. Justify, despite his Triple Crown sweep, did not remove any doubt, and a "test" vs older was the way to know if he was truly the best overall. Since we did not get that, I think he should be knocked down a peg.

On the grand scheme of things, I do not mind if Justify is awarded HOY based on winning the Triple Crown and, by extension, the horse racing community signals the Triple Crown sweep as the greatest North American accomplishment. It truly is an amazing feat that hasn't happened but a handful of times in history. But I feel Accelerate is more deserving primarily because I don't automatically give the Triple Crown such lofty weight.

[bobphilo]

127 for both, and both carrying 126 though one was obviously a young 3yo.

But that does not give Accelerate credit for ground loss. If you look at the ThoroGraph figures (which factor in ground loss). Accelerate's Classic negative 3 1/2 is significantly better than Justify's Derby figure of negative 1 1/2. I would never call a Classic run in a negative 3 1/2 "in contention for the worst of all time". Mabe Justify would have improved enough to match that but that is a matter of speculation regarding a horse who could not remain sound long enough to even make the Classic. Shouldn't the ability to remain sound enough to race an entire season? I thought the industry was striving for greater soundness. If so, they should reward horses capable of doing so successfully.
HOY should not be based on speculation of how much a horse might improve.

[Fager Fan]

Here is the issue: Horse of the Year is too vague and not well-defined. Thus, we're all using our own interpretation of Horse of the Year. In addition, we don't agree where the Triple Crown ranks in importance. It is obviously at the top for those outside of horse racing because that is really all they are exposed to.

Furthermore, is it fair to penalize horses for an abbreviated career/season? Is it also fair to consider the possibility that a horse may have won by way of performance enhancers?

My personal opinion is the Triple Crown races are actually "restricted" (to three-year old's) and should be weighted accordingly. I also believe a three-year old that does not face older horses has to be so dominant in his division to remove any doubt that he was the best horse overall. Justify, despite his Triple Crown sweep, did not remove any doubt, and a "test" vs older was the way to know if he was truly the best overall. Since we did not get that, I think he should be knocked down a peg.

On the grand scheme of things, I do not mind if Justify is awarded HOY based on winning the Triple Crown and, by extension, the horse racing community signals the Triple Crown sweep as the greatest North American accomplishment. It truly is an amazing feat that hasn't happened but a handful of times in history. But I feel Accelerate is more deserving primarily because I don't automatically give the Triple Crown such lofty weight.

I wonder how great the TC sweep really is.

Take any 3 open G1 races in a row, how many horses have won all 3? How many have won the Woodward, JCGC, and BCC? Or before the time of the BCC, how many have won the Whitney, Woodward and JCGC? If we want them to travel, then ok, pick 3 races which would make for more travel. I’m going to guess that winning those 3 open G1s in a row would be harder to do than the TC. The only thing that really makes the TC unique is they’re only 3 once, so one shot at it per horse. But is it really that hard?

[GMB@BP]

Cat Thief and Arcangues would like a word with you.

Your nuts if you think the Arcangues fields was weak.

Bertrando, Tinners Way, Devil His Due, Marquetry....thats just off the top of my head.

[Spalding No!]

1 1/4 mles is the most important distance, Spalding.
That hardly rings true in this day and age with just a handful of top level races run at that distance on the main track. Nevertheless, I didn't suggest that it wasn't important. Justify won 3 races at classic distances.

He was also as fast as Accelerate at 9 furlongs by April of this year after only 3 career outings.

And yes, just because they wear fancy hats at the Derby doesn't mean we forget that it is a restricted race.
And just because a race is open to Pavel and Dr. Dorr doesn't make it a stronger race than a Triple Crown event.

[cj]

And just because a race is open to Pavel and Dr. Dorr doesn't make it a stronger race than a Triple Crown event.

LOL, perfectly stated. I really think people are underestimating how tough it was for Justify to put away a G1 winning sprinter (one that went on to beat older at Keeneland) in the Kentucky Derby and still have enough left to win.

[AskinHaskin]

... even Bodemeister only had enough for runner-up honors after putting-away the champion sprinter early in the Derby.


And the difference between Justify and Accelerate remains glaringly obvious:


Justify has never lost, and Count Fleet before him was named HOY with a 6-for-6 three-year-old campaign during which he never raced again after the Belmont Stakes back when the competition was probably more durable.

Justify is now the sole T.C. winner to have done so without racing as a 2yo just as another is the only T.C. winner to have won the Derby off of an 8-month layoff.


Some keep trying to compare Accelerate of November to Justify of June and before, when a more apt comparison would be Justify of May-June as a 3yo to Accelerate of May-June as a 3yo. It's laughable!


Nobody knows what it would take to beat Justify, and everybody knows that all it takes to beat Accelerate is City of Light, who then returned to finish behind the aforementioned Dr Dorr, a runner who then topped 6 foes in 3 subsequent 2018 starts.

[Fager Fan]

... even Bodemeister only had enough for runner-up honors after putting-away the champion sprinter early in the Derby.


And the difference between Justify and Accelerate remains glaringly obvious:


Justify has never lost, and Count Fleet before him was named HOY with a 6-for-6 three-year-old campaign during which he never raced again after the Belmont Stakes back when the competition was probably more durable.

Justify is now the sole T.C. winner to have done so without racing as a 2yo just as another is the only T.C. winner to have won the Derby off of an 8-month layoff.


Some keep trying to compare Accelerate of November to Justify of June and before, when a more apt comparison would be Justify of May-June as a 3yo to Accelerate of May-June as a 3yo. It's laughable!


Nobody knows what it would take to beat Justify, and everybody knows that all it takes to beat Accelerate is City of Light, who then returned to finish behind the aforementioned Dr Dorr, a runner who then topped 6 foes in 3 subsequent 2018 starts.

About a 105?

[dilanesp]

That hardly rings true in this day and age with just a handful of top level races run at that distance on the main track. Nevertheless, I didn't suggest that it wasn't important. Justify won 3 races at classic distances.

He was also as fast as Accelerate at 9 furlongs by April of this year after only 3 career outings.


And just because a race is open to Pavel and Dr. Dorr doesn't make it a stronger race than a Triple Crown event.

If the older division was so weak Justify's connections didn't need to duck it.

They ducked it because they are a bunch of parasitic chickens who wanted to protect their overrated colt's phony undefeated record of 5 for 5 against restricted competition plus a 6th win achieved by cheating in the Belmont.

[cj]

If the older division was so weak Justify's connections didn't need to duck it.

They ducked it because they are a bunch of parasitic chickens who wanted to protect their overrated colt's phony undefeated record of 5 for 5 against restricted competition plus a 6th win achieved by cheating in the Belmont.

How do you have access to his vet records? Impressive.

[ultracapper]

HOTY should go to the horse that has actually accomplished more against all comers in open competition throughout the year. It has nothing to do with what promise a young horse has shown it may someday achieve if it meets open competition. Justify would be a good candidate for most promising newcomer award this year if such an award existed.

So who would have been your HOTY in 1972?

[dilanesp]

How do you have access to his vet records? Impressive.

My standard for the injury is "would it have forced the retirement of a cheap claimer?". The answer to that is obviously "no", so Justify's injury should be considered a contrivance for HOTY voting.

[dilanesp]

So who would have been your HOTY in 1972?

Key to the Mint?

Favorite Trick didn't deserve it either.

[cj]

My standard for the injury is "would it have forced the retirement of a cheap claimer?". The answer to that is obviously "no", so Justify's injury should be considered a contrivance for HOTY voting.

That is an impossible standard that no sane owner should or would ever follow.

[Spalding No!]

My standard for the injury is "would it have forced the retirement of a cheap claimer?". The answer to that is obviously "no", so Justify's injury should be considered a contrivance for HOTY voting.
Why does it need to lead to retirement? Don't some injuries require extended periods of time off?

I've seen both champions and low-level claimers get 6-12 months off before returning to race.

Just because the connections chose to retire Justify doesn't mean he didn't require time off for his injury. Justify was retiring at the end of the year one way or the other.

[dilanesp]

Why does it need to lead to retirement? Don't some injuries require extended periods of time off?

I've seen both champions and low-level claimers get 6-12 months off before returning to race.

Just because the connections chose to retire Justify doesn't mean he didn't require time off for his injury. Justify was retiring at the end of the year one way or the other.

If Justify were coming back at 4, he could of course win HOTY at 4.

The retirement for reasons that harm the sport (greed and the parasites who breed elite horses) basically disqualifies him from winning it at 3 when we had an accomplished older horse who won all the right races.

[dilanesp]

That is an impossible standard that no sane owner should or would ever follow.

They can do whatever they want.

But racing should punish parasitic behavior, not reward it.

And also, there's only one standard for whether a horse is safe to run. If Justify's injury is considered "real", the sport should be banned. Seriously. Because we are running "injured" horses every day because they are cheap and we treat them as disposable.

Justify's injury is as fake as his Belmont win, for my purposes.

[elhelmete]

That is an impossible standard that no sane owner should or would ever follow.

It's just beyond...

If anything, these so-called cheap claimers should be handled 'upward', not the other way around.

[dilanesp]

It's just beyond...

If anything, these so-called cheap claimers should be handled 'upward', not the other way around.

I would be fine with that.

The problem is in saying a cheap claimer's life is worthless whereas a strategic retirement of a 3 year old with the same injury by owners who are too chicken to risk a loss is treated as a humanitarian gesture to protect the horse.

[dilanesp]

Audible is just the latest runner from Justify (https://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Justify_2)’s 3-year-old Kentucky Derby class who proved unable to defeat older rivals. Only one, Promises Fulfilled, has managed to do so — and that victory came sprinting, not against the type of competition where much could be gleaned when it comes to Justify’s talent relative to the other main Horse of the Year contender, Accelerate.

Pitting sophomores against fully developed elders is an expected mismatch. But without seeing Justify take them on himself, voters are forced to wonder what if when considering how the Triple Crown winner might have fared.


https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Weekend_Takeaways_Audible_s_loss_also_a_blow_to_Ju stify_123#

[PaceAdvantage]

If the older division was so weak Justify's connections didn't need to duck it.

They ducked it because they are a bunch of parasitic chickens who wanted to protect their overrated colt's phony undefeated record of 5 for 5 against restricted competition plus a 6th win achieved by cheating in the Belmont.I laughed...

[ultracapper]

What did Charismatic do after the Belmont? I remember him being in bad shape after that race.

I don't believe in hard rules for something like HOTY. You want it to be something that will bring attention to the game at minimum. There is a legitimate reason to support Accelerate, but Justify winning wouldn't be any kind of a crime to howl about, and would be more recognizable and accepted by casual fans, IMO. The last thing this industry should do is demean the 3yo classics. They are far and away the most recognizable races in the country. More people are aware of the Preakness than are aware of the BCC.

[Tom]

One thing this thread has made clear to me - the Eclipse awards are meaningless.

[ultracapper]

They are for the "club" bunch in the industry.

[v j stauffer]

If Justify were coming back at 4, he could of course win HOTY at 4.

The retirement for reasons that harm the sport (greed and the parasites who breed elite horses) basically disqualifies him from winning it at 3 when we had an accomplished older horse who won all the right races.

Greed and parasites? Unbelievable. What if you, your family or a close friend was fortunate to breed such a wonderful horse? Then after winning a Triple Crown you decided to take the hundreds of million dollars that retirement would bring? Does that make you a greedy parasite?

Most owners and breeders in this business lose money. Many continue to pour it in because of pure love for the horses and sport.

[v j stauffer]

One thing this thread has made clear to me - the Eclipse awards are meaningless.

The two I've been awarded mean the world to me.

[dilanesp]

Greed and parasites? Unbelievable. What if you, your family or a close friend was fortunate to breed such a wonderful horse? Then after winning a Triple Crown you decided to take the hundreds of million dollars that retirement would bring? Does that make you a greedy parasite?

Most owners and breeders in this business lose money. Many continue to pour it in because of pure love for the horses and sport.

Vic, the Hills and the Taylors, upper middle class people, raced their stallion, one of the most valuable in history, as a 4 year old after winning the TC while undefeated and with a far better record than Justify, despite the fact he had real injuries, unlike Justify.

The ultra-wealthy folks at Winstar are parasites: they make a big profit and feel they owe the game nothing

[v j stauffer]

Vic, the Hills and the Taylors, upper middle class people, raced their stallion, one of the most valuable in history, as a 4 year old after winning the TC while undefeated and with a far better record than Justify, despite the fact he had real injuries, unlike Justify.

The ultra-wealthy folks at Winstar are parasites: they make a big profit and feel they owe the game nothing

OK.

[Spalding No!]

Vic, the Hills and the Taylors, upper middle class people, raced their stallion, one of the most valuable in history, as a 4 year old after winning the TC while undefeated and with a far better record than Justify, despite the fact he had real injuries, unlike Justify.

The ultra-wealthy folks at Winstar are parasites: they make a big profit and feel they owe the game nothing

Coincidentally Seattle Slew won the HOY award as a 3yo Triple Crown winner despite not racing the last half of the year or facing his elders (like Justify).

[ronsmac]

Coincidentally Seattle Slew won the HOY award as a 3yo Triple Crown winner despite not racing the last half of the year or facing his elders (like Justify).And despite beating Affirmed twice as a 4 yr old, Affirmed was still voted horse of the year. Seattle Slew did miss a lot of the season though.

[dilanesp]

Coincidentally Seattle Slew won the HOY award as a 3yo Triple Crown winner despite not racing the last half of the year or facing his elders (like Justify).

And then got screwed as a 4 year old when he convincingly beat Affirned twice.

[Spalding No!]

And then got screwed as a 4 year old when he convincingly beat Affirned twice.
Nice deflection from his partial 3yo campaign that garnered him the HOY award.

Nevertheless, I'll bite because I find it interesting that you don't seem to give much weight to the fact that Justify took 6 races between February and June--including the Triple Crown and one other Grade 1--and yet would concede the 1978 HOY award to Seattle Slew, whose campaign basically ran from September 5 to November 11, making 5 starts with 3 wins and 2 seconds.

Never mind Exceller, who was 7 for 10 and took down major prizes coast-to-coast in a year-long campaign, including the Hollywood Gold Cup and Jockey Club Gold Cup amid several top-tier prizes on the turf.

Also, Affirmed's saddle slipped in the Jockey Club Gold Cup so I wouldn't considerate that a definitive display of Seattle Slew's superiority over the younger colt, especially since Slew didn't even win the race.

[dilanesp]

Nice deflection from his partial 3yo campaign that garnered him the HOY award.

Nevertheless, I'll bite because I find it interesting that you don't seem to give much weight to the fact that Justify took 6 races between February and June--including the Triple Crown and one other Grade 1--and yet would concede the 1978 HOY award to Seattle Slew, whose campaign basically ran from September 5 to November 11, making 5 starts with 3 wins and 2 seconds.

Never mind Exceller, who was 7 for 10 and took down major prizes coast-to-coast in a year-long campaign, including the Hollywood Gold Cup and Jockey Club Gold Cup amid several top-tier prizes on the turf.

Also, Affirmed's saddle slipped in the Jockey Club Gold Cup so I wouldn't considerate that a definitive display of Seattle Slew's superiority over the younger colt, especially since Slew didn't even win the race.

Seattle Slew had 2 convincing victories over the horse who won the award. They weren't close. Voting for a proven inferior was indefensible

[Spalding No!]

Seattle Slew had 2 convincing victories over the horse who won the award. They weren't close. Voting for a proven inferior was indefensible
Again, Affirmed's saddle slipped in the Gold Cup, effectively taking him out of the race and possibly Slew himself when Affirmed ran off.

Seattle Slew had the run of the race in the Marlboro Cup, getting the opening quarter in an unhurried and unpressured :24--a tactical miscue by Steve Cauthen, not a condemnation of Affirmed's talent. The 3yo with only a modest weight-break (4 lbs) was game to the wire, simply unable to make up the deficit Cauthen willingly incurred at the start.

Slew got a similar trip a couple of weeks later in the Woodward where he waltzed through a :24 4/5 opening quarter in a paceless 5-horse field. Exceller, a deep closer coming off a 2-month break following a 12 furlong turf race in California, was taken out of his game by Willie Shoemaker and sent on the attack, showing enough speed to take a measured early run at Slew before completing the opening half mile. An unhurried Slew simply brushed it off by quickening to a pace more appropriate for a race of that caliber. Exceller's stamina saved him from having the doors blown off completely, and he chased Slew the rest of the way home without losing more than a length or so through the stretch.

So Slew's two Grade 1 wins that year were under ideal conditions to say the least. His other 2 starts were a couple of Grade 3s (one of which he lost while giving a bunch of weight).

That's why Seattle Slew's Jockey Club Gold Cup run is often considered his finest performance. It's the only one where he was given no leeway throughout.

Kind of like Justify in the Derby and Preakness...

[GMB@BP]

Again, Affirmed's saddle slipped in the Gold Cup, effectively taking him out of the race and possibly Slew himself when Affirmed ran off.



Hey Cigar beat Holy Bull soundly as well.

[Fager Fan]

So who would have been your HOTY in 1972?

Not Sec.

[ReplayRandall]

Not Sec.

You must have really been against Favorite Trick in '97...

[ronsmac]

You must have really been against Favorite Trick in '97...That one will always be a head scratcher to me. I thought for sure Skip Away was going to win that year.

[cj]

That one will always be a head scratcher to me. I thought for sure Skip Away was going to win that year.

Speed figure guys knew he was nothing special. I wouldn't have voted for him as horse of the year under any circumstances.

[Fager Fan]

Greed and parasites? Unbelievable. What if you, your family or a close friend was fortunate to breed such a wonderful horse? Then after winning a Triple Crown you decided to take the hundreds of million dollars that retirement would bring? Does that make you a greedy parasite?

Most owners and breeders in this business lose money. Many continue to pour it in because of pure love for the horses and sport.

Hundreds of millions? It’s good money they’re making, but nowhere near hundreds of millions.

[Fager Fan]

You must have really been against Favorite Trick in '97...

You bet I was. No 2yo is ever the best horse who ran that year.

[v j stauffer]

Hundreds of millions? It’s good money they’re making, but nowhere near hundreds of millions.

Over the course of his entire stud career assuming he stays healthy?

Shuttling?

[aaron]

You bet I was. No 2yo is ever the best horse who ran that year.
Did Secretariat win hoy as a two year old ?

[GMB@BP]

Did Secretariat win hoy as a two year old ?

yes

[Vinnie]

What Justify did while never racing as a 2 year old was nothing short of historic and astounding. It may be something that doesn't occur if racing were to be around another 100 years. It was awesome! :headbanger:

HOTY hands Down!! Really like Accelerate and John Sadler, but, not in a year with what Justify accomplished.

[Fager Fan]

Over the course of his entire stud career assuming he stays healthy?

Shuttling?

Not unless he turns out to be a Storm Cat or Seattle Slew. The odds are very slim for any stallion to be the next one of those.

This particular horse has already been split into so many parts, none of them would reap too much. WinStar is the one who likely made out the best, with each new owner paying full retail price.

I’d love to see Sol’s books. I bet with the prices he must be paying, that he’s seriously in the red despite the hits.

[Fager Fan]

Did Secretariat win hoy as a two year old ?

Yes. And he would’ve had his head handed to him had he run in open company as a 2yo.

[Fager Fan]

What Justify did while never racing as a 2 year old was nothing short of historic and astounding. It may be something that doesn't occur if racing were to be around another 100 years. It was awesome! :headbanger:

HOTY hands Down!! Really like Accelerate and John Sadler, but, not in a year with what Justify accomplished.

You do realize that could speak of the lack of competition more than anything else? The numbers seem to back that up as well.

[Spalding No!]

You bet I was. No 2yo is ever the best horse who ran that year.
The voters really got it wrong that year apparently. The 2yo filly La Prevoyante (unbeaten in 12 starts) was runner up in the voting.

Coincidentally, only 9 months later, the then 3yo Secretariat buried both Key To The Mint and Riva Ridge (presumably better choices for HOY?) in the Marlboro Cup in record time for 9 furlongs.

[Vinnie]

You do realize that could speak of the lack of competition more than anything else? The numbers seem to back that up as well.

I saw him when he ran his first Maiden Race and knew that he was something Very Special.

[v j stauffer]

Not unless he turns out to be a Storm Cat or Seattle Slew. The odds are very slim for any stallion to be the next one of those.

This particular horse has already been split into so many parts, none of them would reap too much. WinStar is the one who likely made out the best, with each new owner paying full retail price.

I’d love to see Sol’s books. I bet with the prices he must be paying, that he’s seriously in the red despite the hits.

Well if they need the money that makes them just like the rest of us who have lives, mortgages and families.

Not money grubbing parasite's Dilane.

[the little guy]

Not unless he turns out to be a Storm Cat or Seattle Slew. The odds are very slim for any stallion to be the next one of those.

This particular horse has already been split into so many parts, none of them would reap too much. WinStar is the one who likely made out the best, with each new owner paying full retail price.

I’d love to see Sol’s books. I bet with the prices he must be paying, that he’s seriously in the red despite the hits.


Sol ( and Jack Wolf ) didn't buy any part of his breeding rights. They no longer own any part of Justify.


Both made money on the Justify/Audible deal.

[Fager Fan]

Well if they need the money that makes them just like the rest of us who have lives, mortgages and families.

Not money grubbing parasite's Dilane.

Yes, I’m sure they’d have a problem feeding the family if they chose to race him another year.

I’m with Dilan on this one. No matter how you slice it, everything about the huge partnership to not racing past the Belmont is destructive to the sport.

[Fager Fan]

:9:Sol ( and Jack Wolf ) didn't buy any part of his breeding rights. They no longer own any part of Justify.


Both made money on the Justify/Audible deal.

We know Coolmore owns all now.

But I’d still love to see Sol’d books. It’s not hard at all to buy a piece of every top horse out there. One simply has to overpay to do it.