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View Full Version : Kipness the "Wizard"?


LemonSoupKid
10-30-2018, 12:29 PM
I have seen this guy's section at DRF for years, and always wondered if he does well. Has anyone seen or tracked him? Does he have a Breeder's Cup record anywhere, even in retrospect that is verifiable - good or bad?

Thanks, I love handicappers and touts, and talking about them. It's always amusing.

rispa
10-30-2018, 01:54 PM
He's on Twitter and Facebook I believe. Write to him and ask. He once had an Email address he published as well.

LemonSoupKid
10-30-2018, 04:37 PM
He's on Twitter and Facebook I believe. Write to him and ask. He once had an Email address he published as well.

It's hard to get the straight dope from someone who has cards for sale on the internet (that aren't crazy expensive, but aren't cheap either).

Tom
10-30-2018, 05:07 PM
I used to see him on BRIS I believe - 20-25 years ago?
I got a few of his reports. I thing I had on for BC on year.
Might have been an article in Gambling TImes.
Pretty good analysis, but no idea what his current work is like.

LemonSoupKid
10-30-2018, 11:21 PM
Thanks for the replies. Good luck this weekend, boys

JustRalph
10-31-2018, 01:45 AM
He freaked after the 2002 KY Derby. He said it was fixed if I remember. He went nuts over Baffert winning again.

I actually think I archived the article somewhere. I’ll see if I can find it

rrpic6
10-31-2018, 09:27 AM
I met Kipness AKA The Wizard about 20 years ago in Vegas at a Downtown Race Book. Back then he did his own work, focusing on New York tracks. When he branched out, he needed more people to work for him, thus many other tracks were not really his own picks. I recall a few e-mails we exchanged years ago as I entertained the idea of 'capping area tracks for his sheets. I never committed. He and Bruno DeJulio deserve kudos for all the years spent grinding away daily in a no-win situation.


RR

JustRalph
10-31-2018, 12:23 PM
After the 2002 Derby he wrote this screed:lol:


LOOKING INTO THE WIZARD'S CRYSTAL BALL May 9, 2002
by Michael Jay Kipness (AKA "The Wizard")
THE KENTUCKY DERBY-The Fastest Two Minute Scam In Sports

You read it right. The Kentucky Derby has become the fastest two-minute scam in sports. “Wait a minute,” you are saying to yourself. The Kentucky Derby is the most prestigious race in America. It is pristine. It is the race that everyone looks forward to and thinks about as soon as the calendar turns it’s pages to January first, the day all two-year-old thoroughbreds become three years of age. People even begin saving up some of their precious disposable income to wager on the run for the roses.

What once was, is no more. Who is to blame? Let’s start first with the racetrack where the Kentucky Derby began and that is Churchill Downs. Why blame them you say? Don’t be naïve. Just look at what happened on Derby day last year and once again this year. It’s just amazing that management at Churchill Downs and the track maintenance crew at Churchill stuffed cotton in their ears, snubbed their nose at the critics and maintained their innocence that they did nothing to soup up the track for the Kentucky Derby last year. They are the grinch of thoroughbred horseracing. Ba-hambug I say! Yes, they did speed up the track unnecessarily so with track records falling all day long, the fastest fractions in memory set in last year’s Kentucky Derby and a rock hard dirt course that severely compromised many horses chances that afternoon, including Point Given who rebounded after that Derby Day fiasco to revenge his defeat that day and go on to win horse of the year.

Well the grinches of racing were at it again this year going out of their way to ruin another Kentucky Derby and bury the millions of dollars wagered by the unknowing crowd who wait for this moment and we the players who support the game all year long. I have an idea to help us all. Why don’t they just sell us lotto tickets instead of mutual tickets, because maybe we will have a better chance of having the winner? This way Churchill Downs and the NTRA will save us time and our mental anguish trying to handicap the Kentucky Derby when Churchill Downs goes about their business of pulling this charade.

Sour grapes you say. The Wizard did not pick the winner and now he is on the attack. True - I did not have the winner - nor did I like the winner, War Emblem, who I felt would face more pressure for the lead than he did. You want to know something else?I disliked second place finisher Proud Citizen. Who did I like? I loved Buddha and picked him on top until he was scratched because of an injury Friday morning. That moved up my second pick, Saarland, who ran poorly but it was discovered after the race that he had suffered an injury, which will place him on the shelf until at least the fall. My third pick became Perfect Drift who ran a respectable third. Would my top pick Buddha have won the race? I doubt it. The way Churchill designed the racetrack for Derby day; the outcome was pretty much decided. I am just glad that I was on a baseball field coaching my son’s little league game instead of being in my office watching the Kentucky Derby live. I was able to at least briefly escape the agony of watching the most boring two minutes of racing and being away on a baseball field prevented me from punching a hole in my TV set.

Let me now back up my anger with facts to prove to you that I am justified feeling the way I do and so should you.

From the outset of Saturday’s Derby under card, it became evident that the track was strongly speed favoring. In race one, Entrepreneur and Abajo ran 1-2 around the track. Both the pace and final time were very quick. In race two, Mr. John basically wired the field. In the third race, which was at two turns, the 8-5 winner did rate in fourth before taking the lead at the top of the stretch and then drew off. In race four which was a Grade 2 sprint, Snow Ridge set a torrid pace under pressure and wired the field only to be disqualified when the rider inadvertently struck the nose of second place finisher D’Wildcat near the wire. In race five, a two year old stakes race, Holiday Runner wired the field. Race six was a grass race. Race seven was a Grade stake for filly sprinters won by Gold Mover who stalked the pace outside. Second place finisher, Celtic Melody, raced a close second the entire way but was moved up to first on a DQ.
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Race eight was a grass stake. Then came race nine, The Kentucky Derby. This is when the Churchill Downs track maintenance crew did their magic. Race eight was made official just before 5:00 PM. The Derby went off at 6:12, which meant that there was about one hour and twelve minutes, just enough time for the track crew to do what they can to manipulate the track surface. Before we analyze the running of the Derby let’s skip to race ten, one race after the Derby when the first three finishers were first-secondthird in some order for the entire trip. The final race was a dirt sprint where the first three finishers ran around the track in the exact order from start to finish with no horse changing position at any call. Let’s now jump back to the Kentucky Derby. The running of this year’s Kentucky Derby reminded me of a time when I was a fan of harness racing at the half mile tracks where races were run twice around the harness oval and it was not unusual to see horses run 1-2-3 around the track, never changing their position. This occurrence rarely happens in thoroughbred racing unless the track is extremely speed favoring.

Sometimes you might see this in a small field where the first three betting choices have a huge edge over the rest of the field. Even if you attempted to come up with the most unusual outcome of the Derby, recreating the race from start to finish, there is no way you would have predicted that in an eighteen horses field traveling one and one quarter miles, that the horses who were one-two three after a quarter mile would hold that same position from the clubhouse turn to the finish line. Further analysis of the Derby indicate that the only horse to make up any ground was Medaglia d’Oro who for some ridiculous reason rallied from tenth place to land fourth after being a front runner in all his starts. Take Medaglia d’Oro out of the event and what you have is the first five finishers holding their positions the entire race. (Request For Parole and Came Home ran close together from start to finish). This outcome is totally impossible unless during the more than the hour between races eight and nine, something was done to the track. In 128 previous runnings of the Kentucky Derby, this has never come close to happening. As a matter of fact, it has been increasingly difficult to even wire the field in the Derby. In the last twenty years I can recall Sunny’s Halo taking the lead entering the backstretch and winning. Spend A Buck wired the Derby field in 1985. In 1988 the filly Winning Color wired the field. In 1994 Go For Gin took the lead on the backstretch and went on to victory. That was it for the last twenty years.

The system that is in place to determine who gets into the Derby field and who does not is so flawed that it is beyond laughable. The system is pathetic. It is amazing how the people who make these rules continue to do so without using common sense, which they do not have. Consider this for a moment. If the Goldophin Stables wanted to qualify a horse based on earnings which is the only qualification to get into the Derby, the sheikh just has to write a race with a million dollar purse or make it twenty million, they don’t care, the money goes back in their pockets anyway, and have five of their horses entered in a seven horse field where the first three finishers make a substantial amount of money to help qualify them.

Explain to me how a horse like It’sallinthechase who beats two horses in this Derby at 94-1 gets into the race, but not Sunday Break who runs a close third in the Wood Memorial, but fails to get in because of earnings. Who do you think is the better horse? Something is seriously wrong with the system and until things are changed, the Derby will always be run the same way, with twenty horses and few that don’t belong and just congest the field. How about the horses that shipped to Churchill Down prior to the Derby, like Sunday Break, who train for it, and then do not get in. This year there were two early scratches, which limited the field to eighteen with two empty slots. Why shouldn’t there be an also eligible list in some order of preference so a horse like Sunday Break can get in even up to the day of the race. There are also eligible lists at tracks all over the US and there is also one at Churchill Downs on regular racing days, but why none in the Kentucky Derby? You want to know why? Because they want to have their programs printed Wednesday evening after the post position draw and allow advance betting on Thursday, three days before the Derby to suck in as much cash as possible. So make an also eligible list with a few horses and allow betting on them as well. If they don’t run, just give refunds. If one of the AE’s gets into the race Saturday morning, there is enough time for people to adjust and evaluate their chances before making their wagers.

When I picked Buddha to win the Derby, I could have cared less that he did not get to Churchill days before the race to train over the track. I even liked it that he trained at Belmont and flew in the Tuesday before the race. I say why don’t all the trainers just van or fly their horses in the day of the race. Load them back in after the race and go home. It makes no difference. They are not training on the same track the days leading up to the race as the one they are running on Derby day. Now I know why the connections from Europe train on fake tracks. It is because what we see is nothing but fake tracks.

The NTRA is supposed to help promote the game but instead they waste money on stupid ads and other wasteful projects, which have deemed them an unnecessary joke. If the NTRA wants to promote the game, they should first start by having a say in the way the track condition is kept on its biggest day as well as the system on deciding who gets in and who does not.

As far as Baffert and Lukas goes, six weeks ago neither trainer even had a remote chance of having a Derby runner entered let alone run one-two. War Emblem, as you probably know, was privately purchased by Thoroughbred Corporation (owners of Point Given) for one million dollars and Lukas scored with Proud Citizen in the Lexington Stakes, on April 20 at Keeneland. The odds of these two running onetwo were impossible for me to fathom but if you did you were rewarded with a $1,300.00 payoff for every two dollars wagered. And if you had those two horses and used Perfect Trip in the third hole, your two dollar trifecta payoff was $18,373.20. My hat’s off to Baffert and Lukas. They had their horses ready to run and got the necessary help from the track maintenance crew. I even heard that Baffert and Lukas were seen in a Louisville bar laughing it up and buying drinks for the Churchill Downs maintenance crew Saturday evening.

Jockey Victor Espinoza aboard War Emblem did what he had to do and that was to shoot right out to the lead and set a moderate pace. Mike Smith aboard Proud Citizen did what he had to do and that was to chase the pacesetter around the track. If he had gone up and used his horse to duel for the lead the outcome might have been different. Eddie Delahoussaye aboard third place finisher Perfect Drift did his best to stay close but could not make up any ground in the stretch. Even Pat Day who was aboard Blue Burner who broke from post 18 sensed the speed bias and did whatever he could early on to get a good contending position. Came Home was in the spot he likes, stalking in 4th, but could make up no ground.

It was mentioned by one of the sportscasters covering the NBC Derby Telecast following the victory of War Emblem that he had possessed the “highest” Beyer figure in his last race of the seventeen other entrants in the field. The Beyer figures are given out in the past performances of The Daily Racing Form, of which it’s obvious you are already aware. What does that really mean. Since he had the highest Beyer number he should win the Derby or even run well. By the way-Andy Beyer not only did not select War Emblem to win the Derby, he never even mentioned War Emblem as a contender. So much for his Beyer numbers.

As far as how I did, I stunk like everyone else. My top selection Buddha was scratched. I scratched into Saarland who was up the track. My second selection Perfect Drift ran third. My third selection Came home ran sixth and my fourth selection Medaglia d’Oro ran fourth. Like I said earlier, if Buddha had run the way the race set up he would have been lucky to run third or maybe closer only because Pat Day knew there was a strong speed bias and would have hustled him into striking position early on. Medaglia d’Oro may have been closer at the finish if he had not bobbled leaving the gate and then was bumped by Essence Of Dubai.

The European runners were never in it. Johannesberg and Castle Gandolfo shipped in just a few days before the race. There were many reports knocking their connections for not shipping in earlier so that their horses could get acclimated to the Churchill surface. Based on the last two years, I prefer what they did rather than ship early, because as I said earlier these horses are not training over the same surface they race on Derby Day. One of the most ridiculous decisions I have ever witnessed in the Derby was that the connections of Johannesburg went out of their way to choose post position one, which is a terrible post draw and one that most trainers and owners justifiably stay away from. They had other options but decided to choose the worst one.

I guess I have said enough and now my eyes are focused on Pimlico racecourse where in less than two weeks from now the second jewel of racing’s triple crown will be run. I will have to make some sense of Saturday’s debacle to come up with a decision on who I will be selecting to win that day. If recent history is any indication of present and future results, than I have a chance to be rewarded on my handicapping skills instead of who are the members of this years track maintenance crew and can I treat them to steak and lobster and drinks for all so that they can tell me how much they will be speeding up the track to help the speed? If I know that then maybe I can be the lucky person who hits that $1,300.00 exacta.

Until next week, Your Friend, “The Wizard”

NOTE: ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS CAN BE DIRECTED TO ME AT: WIZARD@CSHORE.COM. I ANSWER ALL E-MAIL PERSONALLY AND IN A PROMPT MANNER.

GaryG
10-31-2018, 12:51 PM
I have known Michael for a long time and consider him a dear friend as well as colleague. I can tell you this: nobody works harder. He parted with BRIS in 2010 and has been with drf since then. Many of his customers buy the sheets for his analysis, to see if maybe they missed something in their own handicapping.

rrpic6
11-02-2018, 03:32 PM
Kipness is in the BCBC Tournament at Churchill.


RR

TexasDolly
11-02-2018, 07:47 PM
For a number of years we used his sheets on big days . His assessment as to what type of bet was appropriate for a race or series of races was very,very good . We often made the type of bet he had outlined but with mostly our own picks. The combination was good for us and I enjoyed leaving that task to him . We never determined what factors were the most influential but he led us to some excellent betting opportunities .
TD

Threechimes
11-02-2018, 08:52 PM
I agree with most of what was said . The only thing I disagree with is the money earned to get in the derby . While it is possible for the sheik to write races and such . The current system did provide us Mine That Bird who obviously nobody thought belonged in a derby field.