Master Consensus 9/15/04

[betchatoo]

AP
Race 3 #1 It's All attitude (6-1)
Race 4 # 1 Chitchat Chitchat (7-2)

Bel
Race 6 #4 Loving (5-2)

Mth
Race 9 #8 Mighty patient (3-1)

TP
Race 2 #8 Glide Path (2-1)


MC has 3 longshot plays
Ap
Race 9 #14 Copy Runner (10-1)
Bel
Race 5 #9 Speed Hunter (12-1)
Race 9 #12 Cleiito (15-1)

[Secretariat]

Originally posted by betchatoo
AP
Race 3 #1 It's All attitude (6-1)
Race 4 # 1 Chitchat Chitchat (7-2)

Bel
Race 6 #4 Loving (5-2)

Mth
Race 9 #8 Mighty patient (3-1)

TP
Race 2 #8 Glide Path (2-1)


MC has 3 longshot plays
Ap
Race 9 #14 Copy Runner (10-1)
Bel
Race 5 #9 Speed Hunter (12-1)
Race 9 #12 Cleiito (15-1)

Got something in the mail on this today. Not too good today. (1-5 on top returning 4.40) $4.40 on Loving. MC Longshots 0-2 with Copy runner scratched.

Seems like it points to the likely favorite. Is their an oddsline with the program?

[betchatoo]

Yes, they do include an odds line

[betchatoo]

AP
Race 3 #1 It's All attitude (6-1) out
Race 4 # 1 Chitchat Chitchat (7-2) 2nd

Bel
Race 6 #4 Loving (5-2) won $4.40

Mth
Race 9 #8 Mighty patient (3-1) 2ndd

TP
Race 2 #8 Glide Path (2-1) out


MC has 3 longshot plays
Ap
Race 9 #14 Copy Runner (10-1) Scratch
Bel
Race 5 #9 Speed Hunter (12-1) out
Race 9 #12 Cleiito (15-1) out

For the day
5 starts 1 win (20%)
Invest $10 Return $4.20 (-$5.80)
ROI (-58%)

Overall
61 races 21 wins (34.4%)
Invest $122 return $120.50 (-$1.50)
ROI (-1.3%)

Favorites
31 Wins 18 (58%)
Invest $62 Return 67.30 (+ $5.30)
ROI (+8%)
Note: Favorites picked by MC have finished in money 27 of 31 times (87%)

At this point it seems MC is a break even program. Its greatest value might be in putting you off races where it picks a favorite (no value). Unless someone has a compelling reason for me to continue posting these I think I'll stop. I'll continue doing some research and if i come up with anythig interesting I'll post and let you know.

[andicap]

hey, that's no small thing if a program can predict legitimiate favorites.
Doesn't that imply that the favorites they DON"T like might be vulnerable? And like you I would avoid races where they like the favorite unless I see value in a longshot exacta.
Sure saves time in this era of simulcasting.


I'd love to know its long-term record picking favorites correctly.

[BIG RED]

On your stats for faves (58%), is that morning line faves or actual faves??

[betchatoo]

Originally posted by andicap
hey, that's no small thing if a program can predict legitimiate favorites.
Doesn't that imply that the favorites they DON"T like might be vulnerable? And like you I would avoid races where they like the favorite unless I see value in a longshot exacta.
Sure saves time in this era of simulcasting.


I'd love to know its long-term record picking favorites correctly.

On your stats for faves (58%), is that morning line faves or actual faves??


I will keep on tracking it (it picked 2 of 4 favorites today +$1.80 on an $8 investment). To answer the second question, it is actual favorites that I track. It seems to me that morning lines have been off more than ever recently. There have been several horses over the 6 days that I've tracked this that have been listed anywhere from 4-1 to 6-1 that have gone off 9-5 or less.

This is a problem with the program. You need to have an idea whether the horse is going to be post time favorite. I generally find if I check the form i have a good idea.

So Andi, if you'd like I will post the horses that meet the criteria again with the caveat that they must be post time favorites. Or is this too complicated to bother with?

[timtam]

Before you close down this thread I reread my brochure for the Master Concensus and it tells of a recommended wager plan. Example. some races you played win/place other races you keyed horses in exotics or boxed horses in exotics. Could you please enlighten us on how the proposed wager panned out? I appreciate this insight on this product thanks again

[betchatoo]

Originally posted by timtam
Before you close down this thread I reread my brochure for the Master Concensus and it tells of a recommended wager plan. Example. some races you played win/place other races you keyed horses in exotics or boxed horses in exotics. Could you please enlighten us on how the proposed wager panned out? I appreciate this insight on this product thanks again

Thus far I have found their wager plan hits a net loss of about 10%. Less than track takeout but nothing to write home about. To be fair, I have spent far more time on the win factor, especially favorites, because played with the adjustments I've made the win percentage is above 50% and the ITM numbers approaching 90%. So, when I have time, I might do a more extensive test of their betting suggestions.