The OFFICIAL 2018 Breeders' Cup at Churchill Downs Thread November 2-3

[Andy Asaro]

Monday, 10/29
4:00 p.m. - 6:30 p.m. EDT
Rood & Riddle Breeders' Cup Post Position Draw




Friday, 11/02
3:00 p.m. - 7:00 p.m. EDT
Future Stars Friday

Saturday, November 3
Saturday, 11/03
1:00 p.m. - 3:30 p.m. EDT
Championship Saturday

Saturday, 11/03
3:30 p.m. - 6:00 p.m. EDT
Championship Saturday


https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/1056636574438440961

https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/1056494541103132672

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/1056679509846568960

[iamt]

With this created can CJ or Mike close the 6 unofficial Breeders Cup threads already on the front page?

[letswastemoney]

https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/1056679509846568960 Worst race for handicapping out of the 2 days.

[jay68802]

28 pre entries, 22 are trained by Chad Brown.;)

[GMB@BP]

I think their ratings (and betting) are going to tank on Friday. They have tried many ideas with this Friday card but this by far is the worst. Its really a lot of horses no one could care less about, I sure am not taking off work to watch 2 year old turfers run. At least you had the distaff to bring something to the table, now, nothing.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

One thing is for sure, Matt outkicked his coverage.

[Andy Asaro]

live feed up. http://www.breederscup.com/

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/NTamm1215/status/1056863924770033665

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/1056869973237399552

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/1056887016720424960

[Redboard]

I think their ratings (and betting) are going to tank on Friday. They have tried many ideas with this Friday card but this by far is the worst. Its really a lot of horses no one could care less about, I sure am not taking off work to watch 2 year old turfers run. At least you had the distaff to bring something to the table, now, nothing.

I have to disagree. I don't like 2-yr-old races and would be OK if the country banned them altogether. But why not put them all together for people who do(rather than sprinkle them in with the real races)? it's almost like they went back to the one-day original format. I applaud the move.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/BH_AHughes/status/1056877682733051904

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/JBOswald68/status/1056886200798195712

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/BloodHorse/status/1056920375760748544

[Tom]

I have to disagree. I don't like 2-yr-old races and would be OK if the country banned them altogether. But why not put them all together for people who do(rather than sprinkle them in with the real races)? it's almost like they went back to the one-day original format. I applaud the move.

I agree.
Saturday looks like a great day and Friday is no longer mandatory to even watch. I will, but cold beer will a much higher priority than any of the races. Gusto over class. :headbanger:

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/1057001174967013376

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/1057014558810869760

https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/1057013871901335552

https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/1057012335041306624

https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/1057012042765340672

https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/1057011136288247813

https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/1057009484747456514

https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/1057008207372136448

https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/1057007126818754560

https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/1057006461082103810

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/1057015319481540608

https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/1057016593421623298

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/1057018553319202816

https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/1057018888901353478

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/CandiceHare_/status/1057041292004220928

https://twitter.com/CandiceHare_/status/1057037224011718656

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/1057020646767628290

Problem with first link.

https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/1057022598306021376

[098poi]

Andy if I may suggest, change the name of this thread to "Andy's Breeders Cup Twitter Thread" or don't post so many tweets. As we get closer and more people post it gets too busy with all these tweets. I'm not trying to be an ass and I know if I don't like it I don't have to open it but just a suggestion.

[Andy Asaro]

Andy if I may suggest, change the name of this thread to "Andy's Breeders Cup Twitter Thread" or don't post so many tweets. As we get closer and more people post it gets too busy with all these tweets. I'm not trying to be an ass and I know if I don't like it I don't have to open it but just a suggestion.

I'm posting information that might be useful to people viewing the thread. Not doing it for my own gratification. If the Owner/Moderator wants it changed or deleted then he is free to do so.

[098poi]

I'm posting information that might be useful to people viewing the thread. Not doing it for my own gratification. If the Owner/Moderator wants it changed or deleted then he is free to do so.


:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[GMB@BP]

I have to disagree. I don't like 2-yr-old races and would be OK if the country banned them altogether. But why not put them all together for people who do(rather than sprinkle them in with the real races)? it's almost like they went back to the one-day original format. I applaud the move.

I was just commenting on the ratings really, I do agree a bit in terms of at least they are all on the same day, and its not the traditional dirt races but the 3-4 new turf races, so you are right, I can just skip it if I dont like it and not have to allocate time over two days.

so good point!

[Redboard]

I was just commenting on the ratings really, I do agree a bit in terms of at least they are all on the same day, and its not the traditional dirt races but the 3-4 new turf races, so you are right, I can just skip it if I dont like it and not have to allocate time over two days.

so good point!

I really wasn't disagreeing with you. Sorry. We were saying the same thing. There will be no Zenyatta or Liams Map running on Friday. The ratings wont be as good. You are right about that.

[metro]

I'm posting information that might be useful to people viewing the thread. Not doing it for my own gratification. If the Owner/Moderator wants it changed or deleted then he is free to do so.

Thanks for posting these.

Enjoy seeing the post positions as a starting point, helps get the juices flowing for later in the week and getting the past performances.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1057294470490669056

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/CandiceHare_/status/1057131090337423360

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/Racingwithbruno/status/1057236221842374657

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1057361423225958400

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/BH_CCrosby/status/1057357882327552000

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/TwinSpires/status/1057358001626079232

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1057377548026372096

[Andy Asaro]

WED
OCT 31 Rain/Thunder 69°54° 90% SSW 14 mph 77%
UV INDEX SUNRISE SUNSET MOONRISE MOONSET
2 of 10 8:08 am 6:44 pm 12:11 am 2:52 pm
A steady light rain early. Showers with perhaps a rumble of thunder developing in the afternoon. High 69F. Winds SSW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90%. Locally heavy rainfall possible.

WED NIGHT
OCT 31 Thunderstorms --54° 100% N 12 mph 90%
UV INDEX SUNRISE SUNSET MOONRISE MOONSET
0 of 10 8:08 am 6:44 pm 12:11 am 2:52 pm
Thunderstorms in the evening, then cloudy with rain likely overnight. Low 54F. WSW winds shifting to NNE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 100%. 1 to 2 inches of rain expected. Locally heavy rainfall possible.


THU
NOV 1 Rain 57°45° 100% NNE 13 mph 90%
UV INDEX SUNRISE SUNSET MOONRISE MOONSET
1 of 10 8:09 am 6:43 pm 1:18 am 3:36 pm
Cloudy with periods of rain. High 57F. Winds NNE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 100%. Rainfall possibly over one inch. Locally heavy rainfall possible.

THU NIGHT
NOV 1 Showers --45° 80% NNW 12 mph 94%
UV INDEX SUNRISE SUNSET MOONRISE MOONSET
0 of 10 8:09 am 6:43 pm 1:18 am 3:36 pm
Steady light rain in the evening. Showers continuing late. Low around 45F. Winds NNW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80%.

FRI
NOV 2 PM Showers 53°41° 40% WNW 8 mph 75%
UV INDEX SUNRISE SUNSET MOONRISE MOONSET
2 of 10 8:10 am 6:42 pm 2:26 am 4:15 pm
Considerable cloudiness. Occasional rain showers in the afternoon. High 53F. Winds WNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

FRI NIGHT
NOV 2 Partly Cloudy --41° 20% WNW 6 mph 81%
UV INDEX SUNRISE SUNSET MOONRISE MOONSET
0 of 10 8:10 am 6:42 pm 2:26 am 4:15 pm
A few clouds from time to time. Low 41F. Winds WNW at 5 to 10 mph.

SAT
NOV 3 Mostly Sunny 60°43° 10% SW 6 mph 68%
UV INDEX SUNRISE SUNSET MOONRISE MOONSET
3 of 10 8:11 am 6:41 pm 3:35 am 4:50 pm
Sunny along with a few clouds. High around 60F. Winds SW at 5 to 10 mph.

[AstrosFan]

:ThmbUp:

Andy if I may suggest, change the name of this thread to "Andy's Breeders Cup Twitter Thread" or don't post so many tweets. As we get closer and more people post it gets too busy with all these tweets. I'm not trying to be an ass and I know if I don't like it I don't have to open it but just a suggestion.

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1057383316838506496

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/WatchXBTV/status/1057400552676446208

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/WatchXBTV/status/1057407437014163456

[Andy Asaro]

Download Official Breeders Cup Programs at these links

Friday

http://www.breederscup.com/sites/default/files/Friday%20BCWC%20Program.pdf

Saturday

http://www.breederscup.com/sites/default/files/Saturday%20BCWC%20Program.pdf

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/ChurchillDowns/status/1057630025418104832

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/1057654340079575045

[chiguy]

Download Official Breeders Cup Programs at these links

Friday

http://www.breederscup.com/sites/default/files/Friday%20BCWC%20Program.pdf

Saturday

http://www.breederscup.com/sites/default/files/Saturday%20BCWC%20Program.pdf




Thanks for this! Keep posting!

[ReplayRandall]

2018 Breeders' Cup World Championships Past Performances

http://www.horse-races.net/library/bc18-pps.htm

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1057792677763117056

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1057987929144877056

[Andy Asaro]

Track Conditions: Good
Turf Conditions: Yielding
Weather: 46.0 Overcast

Last Update: November 2 2018, 6:11 AM PT

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/DRFMcGee/status/1058336905618771968

[Andy Asaro]

http://live.drf.com/

Excerpts:
•
• Jay Privman , Churchill Downs , 2018-11-02 - DRF LivePosted : 39 mins ago
Breeders' Cup Classic update: Collected, Toast of New York do not draw in, officially scratched
Collected and Toast of New York are officially out of the Breeders' Cup Classic on Saturday after failing to draw into the race by scratch time at 8 am Eastern on Friday.
Toast of New York will run tonight in the Marathon Stakes.

• Nicole Russo , 2018-11-02 - DRF LivePosted : 43 mins ago
Shang Shang Shang out of BC

The scratch allows the first also-eligible, synthetic stakes winner Big Drink of Water, in to the main field of 12 if he wants to run. The other three also-eligibles have been scratched.

• Marty McGee , Churchill Downs , 2018-11-02 - DRF LivePosted : 56 mins ago
SCRATCHES for both Breeders' Cup cards at #ChurchillDowns
There are a combined five main-body SCRATCHES just announced by the Churchill Downs stewards for the 14 Breeders' Cup races to be run here today and tomorrow, the most notable being POLYDREAM, the M/L favorite for the BC Mile tomorrow; SHANG SHANG SHANG (5-1 M/L in the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint); and CODE OF HONOR (5-1 in the BC Juvenile).

Here is the full list of early SCR:

FRIDAY: R2-(1); R5-(7, 14, 15, 16); R6-(15, 16); R8-(15, 16); R9-(11).
SATURDAY: R1-(3, 4); R2-(1); R3-(15); R4-(15); R5-(5); R8-(4, 9) (both AEs run); R11-(15, 16).
The main track is currently muddy (but harrowed) and could be fast by Friday first post of 12:55 ET. The first BC race (R5) goes at 3:21. Yet to see a rating for the turf course but surely it will be soft.

• Jay Privman , 2018-11-02 - DRF LivePosted : 58 mins ago
Awesome Slew "under the weather," out of Dirt Mile, per Casse

• David Grening , Churchill Downs , 2018-11-02 , Race 9 - DRF LivePosted : 2hrs 36mins ago
Code of Honor scratched from BC Juvenile

[Andy Asaro]

Just now

Track Conditions: Fast

Turf Conditions: Good

Weather: 46.0 Overcast
Last Update: November 2 2018, 7:04:55 AM PT
Track Information
Main Track Distance: 1 Mile, oval
Turf Course: 7/8 Mile, oval
Distance From Last Turn: 1,234.5 ft
Race Season: November 2
Track Website: http://www.breederscup.com

[Tom]

R2-:1:
R5-:7::14::15::16:
R6-:15::16:
R8-:15::16:
R9-:11:

[Andy Asaro]

Excerpts from XpressBet Betting Guide and Analysis.

Know This 6th race.

Chad Brown is 17: 4-2-0 in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
He’s only had entrants in 8 editions, so he’s won
one-half of the races he’s entered.
North America owns this division with 8 winners
from 10 renewals. Foreign-bred runners have
landed in the trifecta in 6 straight years.
Euro-based favorites in the Juvenile Fillies Turf are
6: 0-1-1, including 2017 last-place finisher Happily.
No California-based filly has finished in the
Juvenile Fillies Turf exacta – best was third in 2013.
9 out of 10 Juvenile Fillies Turf winners have
finished either first or second in final BC preps.
Belmont Park’s Miss Grillo Stakes has produced the
Juvenile Fillies Turf winner 4 times. The Natalma (2)
at Woodbine is the only other prep to springboard
multiple winners. Natalma winners repeated in
Kentucky-hosted Cups (Churchill and Keeneland).
No runner has won the Juvenile Fillies Turf in
wire-to-wire fashion.

Race 7

4 of the last 5 Juvenile Fillies winners were bombs
at 17-1, 32-1, 33-1 and 61-1. The average $2 win
payoff during that span was $60.20.
Last year, Caledonia Road became only the second
Juvenile Fillies winner to succeed in her third
career start. She joined Indian Blessing (2007) as
the least experienced winners.
In 8 previous Juvenile Fillies at Churchill,
California-prepped runners have just 1 win -
Pleasant Stage (1991).
The Frizette added a record-padding 11th Juvenile
Fillies winner last year with Caledonia Road. The
Alcibiades and Chandelier both have produced 7
winners of this race.
Juvenile Fillies history boasts 6 winners at 30-1
odds or more. That’s more than any other
Breeders’ Cup division. Overall, there have been 26
Breeders’ Cup upsets at 30-1 odds or more.
Eight undefeated starters have won the Juvenile
Fillies, most recently Songbird (2015).

Race 8

8 of 11 Juvenile Turf winners were prepped in
Europe. 5 of those last-raced at Newmarket. 3 of
the last 6 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes.
Aidan O’Brien owns the Juvenile Turf with a 15:
4-4-0 record. He’s won this race in 4 of the last 7
years and has had an exacta finisher in 6 of 7 years.
10 of 11 Juvenile Turf winners have been 9-2 odds
or higher.
Last year Mendelssohn ($11.60) snapped a 7-year
favorite losing streak.
A horse 12th or farther back early has landed in the
Juvenile Turf trifecta each of the last 3 years.
A field of 12-14 has started in every edition of the
Juvenile Turf.
No California-based horse has ever finished first or
second in the Juvenile Turf.

Race 9

In 8 previous Juveniles held at Churchill, Californiaprepped
runners have been shut out. New York
and Kentucky grads have won 3 editions each and
Canada and France have accounted for one each.
Shanghai Bobby (2012) is the last favorite to have
won the Juvenile. In the past 11 years, the Juvenile
favorite has been second 8 times.
The Juvenile winner has had just 2 prior starts 7
times, including Good Magic last year.
Single-digit odds runners have comprised at least
two-thirds of the Juvenile trifecta each year since
1997, including last year’s 2-3 finishers.
Each of the last 6 Juvenile pacesetters has faded to
finish off the board.
Only 2 Juvenile winners exited maiden-breaking
victories in their most recent preps: Action This
Day (2003) and New Year’s Day (2013).
Overall, 10 Juvenile winners have been undefeated,
most recently Nyquist (2015).

[Andy Asaro]

Official Breeders' Cup Mobile App.

http://www.breederscup.com/official-apps

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1058403082587893760

[Andy Asaro]

:1::2::6::8::10: In the second. Will play more times with the :6: GL

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1058404274957250560

[Andy Asaro]

3rd race :1::5::10: GL

[ReplayRandall]

:1::2::6::8::10: In the second. Will play more times with the :6: GL

Nice start to get things rolling....


Results- :10:-:6:-:8:


Win- :10:- $30.00

$1 Exacta- $59.80

$1 Tri- $ 284.40

[azeri98]

r3-
:1::6:with2:8::10: super

[Andy Asaro]

3rd race :1::5::10: GL

Thought I had the exacta locked. Gotta hope for the P4.

4th race :1::2::8: GL

[azeri98]

r4-:2:with :1::4::7::8::9: super

[ronsmac]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1058404274957250560 Are you saying wow because that's good or bad? I think it was almost 1.6 mil last year.

[Andy Asaro]

Are you saying wow because that's good or bad? I think it was almost 1.6 mil last year.

On Friday? Don't remember

Could have been with the later start on the West coast.

[Andy Asaro]

:1::8::10::12: Here for the P4

Good luck.

[ronsmac]

On Friday? Don't remember

Could have been with the later start on the West coast.
That's according to the charts, they could be wrong. Saturday's early p5 had almost 2.3 mil. Also according to drf charts.

[Andy Asaro]

:1::2::3::14: GL

[Andy Asaro]

:8: GL

[Andy Asaro]

From XpressBet Wagering/Analysis Guide.

Race 3

Division Debut: 2007
Favorites: Win 27%
In-The-Money 54%
Average $2 Payoffs
Win: $26.58
Exacta: $313.11
Trifecta: $3,957.78
Superfecta: $41,852.31
2017 Filly & Mare Sprint:
66-1 stunner Bar of Gold rallied from 13th of 14
for a dramatic nose victory that keyed a $176,390
$1 superfecta payoff. Unique Bella, the 6-5 favorite,
set the pace before wilting to seventh.

The $135.40 payoff for Bar of Gold last year nearly
doubled the average payout in this race’s history
from $13.39 to $26.58 and increased average
exotic payoffs by a factor of 2 to 4 times.
Both F&M Sprints held at Churchill were won
following preps in the Thoroughbred Club of
America at Keeneland. The Lexington fall meet has
produced 6 of 11 winners of this race, including last
year with Bar of Gold exiting the Spinster.
Finest City and Bar of Gold each turned back in
distance to win the last 2 F&M Sprint editions; that
had not happened in the event’s first 9 years.
3-year-olds are a paltry 31: 0-2-4 in this race,
topped by runner-up finishes by Indian Blessing
(2008) and Switch (2011).
F&M Sprint pacemakers own an 11: 0-1-1 record in
this race, including favored Unique Bella last year.
Pacesetter La Verdad (2015) finished second at
Keeneland in Kentucky.
Jockey Joel Rosario boasts a 6: 1-3-1 record with
his last 6 mounts in the F&M Sprint.

Race 4

Stats & Trends
Division Debut: 2008
Favorites: Win 40%
In-The-Money 60%
Average $2 Payoffs
Win: $25.16
Exacta: $229.58
Trifecta: $2,362.82
Superfecta: $23,142.46
2017 Turf Sprint:
Trainer Peter Miller not only notched his first
Breeders’ Cup victory, but did so with a 1-2 finish
as Stormy Liberal (30-1) returned from a June
layoff to edge stablemate Richard’s Boy (13-1).
Later in the day, the barn would also win the Sprint
with Roy H.
Know This
Jockeys Joel Rosario and Flavien Prat have been
superb in recent Turf Sprints. Rosario is 4: 2-0-1
with his last four mounts; in the last two years Prat
has a win and a second.
The Turf Sprint has been won by horses prepped
or based in the Midwest all 3 times it has been held
in Kentucky-- Chamberlain Bridge (CD), Regally
Ready (CD) and Mongolian Saturday (Kee).
Turf Sprint pacemakers have a win (Regally
Ready) and a second (Central City) in 2 editions at
Churchill Downs.
6 of 10 Turf Sprint winners have been age 5 or
older. Bobby’s Kitten (2014) is the only 3-year-old
to have won.
Only 1 foreign-bred has won the Turf Sprint -
Obviously-IRE (2016).
No horse campaigned exclusively overseas has
finished in the money in 10 Turf Sprint editions.

Race 5

Stats & Trends
Division Debut: 2007
Favorites: Win 18%
In-The-Money 27%
Average $2 Payoffs
Win: $24.22
Exacta: $224.76
Trifecta: $2,389.35
Superfecta: $16,026.31
2017 Dirt Mile:
Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Battle of
Midway out-gamed speedster Sharp Azteca to win
by one half-length. At 14-1, it marked trainer Jerry
Hollendorfer’s second Dirt Mile upset. He also won
with Dakota Phone (2010) at 37-1.
Know This
The Dirt Mile has produced a $25-plus $2 win
mutuel in 5 of 11 editions.
In the last 8 years sophs have had 7 Dirt Mile exacta
finishes, including victories by Caleb’s Posse (2010),
Goldencents (2013) and Battle of Midway (2017).
California-based horses have won the Dirt Mile 5
times in 11 years, including Dakota Phone (2010) at
Churchill Downs.
Don’t over-emphasize a most recent prep race as 9
of 11 Dirt Mile victors have lost final tune-ups.
Bob Baffert has saddled the Dirt Mile beaten
favorite in the past 2 years: Dortmund (3-5, 4th)
and Mor Spirit (2-1, 8th).
West coast-based jockeys - Flavien Prat, Mike
Smith, Rafael Bejarano (twice) and Corey Nakatani
- have won the Dirt Mile in 5 of the last 6 years.
Two-time winner Goldencents has been the only
wire-to-wire Dirt Mile champ.

Race 6

Stats & Trends
Division Debut: 1999
Favorites: Win 21%
In-The-Money 74%
Average $2 Payoffs
Win: $21.37
Exacta: $156.52
Trifecta: $1,532.03
Superfecta: $10,806.11
2017 Filly & Mare Turf:
The heartwarming comeback tale of Lady Eli came
to a disappointing conclusion as the 3-2 favorite
finished a troubled seventh. Instead, Godolphin’s
Wuheida flipped the script in her Prix de l’Opera
re-match with Coolmore’s Rhododendron,
providing a 1-2 finish for the global powerhouses.
Know This
North Americans own an 11-8 edge over
Europeans. Euros seek their first three-peat
following Wuheida (2016) and Queen’s Trust (2017).
Trainer Aidan O’Brien is a paltry 11: 0-2-2 in here.
Great Britain-bred runners have won this race 9
times, including back-to-back the last two years.
Two preps have produced more than half of the 19
F&M Turf winners: Belmont’s Flower Bowl (6) and
Keeneland’s First Lady (4).
Pacemakers have accounted for 2 wins and 3
in-the-money finishes from 19 editions.
California-prepped runners are 0-for-43 all-time in
the F&M Turf with 5 in-the-money finishes
Five 3-year-olds have won the F&M Turf--all
Europeans, including Wuheida and Queen’s Trust in
the past 2 years.
In the past 7 years Foreign-bred runners have
accounted for 13 of 21 trifecta placings.

Race 7

Stats & Trends
Division Debut: 1984
Favorites: Win 24%
In-The-Money 44%
Average $2 Payoffs
Win: $20.81
Exacta: $274.85
Trifecta: $2,638.62
Superfecta: $31,334.90
2017 Sprint:
Trainer Peter Miller capped a day of dash successes
when Roy H outdueled pacemaker Imperial Hint by
one length, adding to the barn’s earlier Turf Sprint
score with Stormy Liberal. Defending Sprint champ
and 7-5 chalk Drefong disappointed in sixth.
Know This
Of the last 5 defending Sprint Champions to
compete, only 2014 runner-up Secret Circle has
even hit the board. 2016 winner Drefong was 6th
last year at 7-5 odds.
9 consecutive Sprint winners were making their
first starts in the race.
The last 4 Sprint exactas have been swept by
horses that were in the top 4 after the opening
half-mile - 1-2 duelers the last 2 years finished first
and second.
California-based runners have won 8 of the last 12
Sprints, including 2 straight (Drefong, Roy H).
3yos have won 3 of the last 6 Sprints: Trinniberg
(2012), Runhappy (2015) & Drefong (2016).
The leading Sprint prep is the Santa Anita Sprint
Championship (formerly Ancient Title) with 6
winners – including Roy H a year ago. 3 of the last
4 Sprint editions at Churchill have been won by
graduates of this prep: Kona Gold (2000),
Thor’s Echo (2006) & Amazombie (2011).

Race 8

Stats & Trends
Division Debut: 1984
Favorites: Win 35%
In-The-Money 50%
Average $2 Payoffs
Win: $22.21
Exacta: $300.62
Trifecta: $7,840.06
Superfecta: $34,283.37
2017 Mile:
5-2 favorite World Approval gave trainer Mark
Casse his fourth BC win in the last 3 years and
jockey John Velazquez his third career victory in
the Mile - Da Hoss (1998) & Wise Dan (2012).
Know This
American domination in the Mile continued last
year, marking the home team’s 6th score in the last
7 years. In that time US-based runners also have
accounted for 15 of 21 trifecta placings.
The Woodbine Mile has produced a top 3 BC
Mile finisher in 10 of the last 11 years, including 4
winners. Court Vision exited that tune-up before
winning the 2011 Mile, most recent at Churchill.
Boxcar payoffs have been a Mile staple at Churchill
with 5 of 8 winners posting 10-1 odds or more
upsets – including Court Vision $131.60, Opening
Verse $55.40, Miesque’s Approval $50.60.
Nine females have won the Mile, more than any
open Breeders’ Cup division. Tepin (2015) is the
most recent.
6 of the last 8 Mile winners were age 5 or older.
4 of the last 6 Mile winners competed during the
Keeneland Fall Meet.
Singletary (2004) was the last California-based
winner of the Mile.

Race 9

Stats & Trends
Division Debut: 1984
Favorites: Win 41%
In-The-Money 56%
Average $2 Payoffs
Win: $18.04
Exacta: $120.16
Trifecta: $1,430.38
Superfecta: $5,039.06
2017 Distaff:
Sophomores finished second through sixth, but
it was late-running 5-year-old Forever Unbridled
that scored the half-length decision. Jockey
John Velazquez earned his second Distaff victory
(Ashado 2004).
Know This
California-prepped runners have been shut out in
8 Distaffs at Churchill Downs. Winners have exited
races in New York (5), Kentucky (2) and Canada (1).
At least one 3-year-old has been in the Distaff
exacta in each of the last 8 years, including Abel
Tasman as runner-up a year ago.
While 3-year-olds have had 10 Distaff wins overall,
only 3 came with fillies making initial starts against
elder rivals (Untapable, Ashado, Dance Smartly).
6 of the last 7 Distaff winners returned less than
$10 for a $2 win wager– averaging $8.40. Favorites
are just 3 for the last 13 in this race.
3 preps have dominated the Distaff, accounting
for nearly 80% of the winners: Spinster (10 wins),
Beldame (9) and Zenyatta (8).
In the last 5 Distaffs, the only pacemaker to
hang on for a share of the exacta was runner-up
Songbird (2016). The last wire-to-wire winner was
Royal Delta (2012).

Race 10

Stats & Trends
Division Debut: 1984
Favorites: Win 26%
In-The-Money 62%
Average $2 Payoffs
Win: $21.54
Exacta: $159.46
Trifecta: $1,133.41
Superfecta: $15,371.42
2017 Turf:
14-1 shot Talismanic upset a field of 13 that
included defending champion Highland Reel,
who settled for third as the 7-5 favorite. It marked
Frenchman Andre Fabre’s fifth BC training victory
and first since 2005.
Know This
15 of the last 19 Turf winners were prepped in
Europe, including 3 straight (Found, Highland Reel
and Talismanic). The last 4 Turf editions at Churchill
also were won by horses with European preps.
Favorites have lost 8 consecutive Turfs and the
average $2 win payoff during that drought is
$20.90 (no winners at less than $9.60).
Favorites have blanked in all 8 Turf renewals at
Churchill - average $2 mutuel $28.35.
Since 1995, the only Turf winner prepped in
California was dead-heater Johar (2003).
In the last 10 years, Little Mike (2012) is the only
Turf winner raced exclusively in the US.
Fillies Found (2015) at age 3, Pebbles (1985) and
Miss Alleged (1991) at age 4 have won the Turf. No
horse over age 5 has won taken this race.
While no Arc de Triomphe winner has won the Turf
in the same year (6: 0-2-1); the Arc de Triomphe (9
wins) and Turf Classic at Belmont (6) are the most
productive Turf preps.

Race 11

Stats & Trends
Division Debut: 1984
Favorites: Win 26%
In-The-Money 59%
Average $2 Payoffs
Win: $25.77
Exacta: $200.22
Trifecta: $3,097.93
Superfecta: $76,996.43
2017 Classic:
Defending champion and 2-1 favorite Arrogate
finished fifth behind a 1-2-3 carousel led by second
betting choice Gun Runner. He became the third
wire-to-wire Classic champ in the last 4 years.
Know This
Three straight Classic winners were idle since
racing during the Saratoga meet: American
Pharoah (2015 Travers), Arrogate (2016 Travers)
and Gun Runner (2017 Woodward).
The last 3 Classics at Churchill Downs were won
by NYRA-prepped horses: Drosselmeyer, Blame
(Belmont) and Invasor (Saratoga).
Of 8 Classic winners at Churchill, only Tiznow
(2000) prepped in California. Dimmed ‘Hollywood’
stars include Zenyatta, Lava Man, Game on Dude,
Silver Charm and Best Pal.
The Jockey Club Gold Cup (7 wins) and Awesome
Again (6 wins) are most productive Classic preps.
The last 6 Classic winners have been within 2
lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile.
Bob Baffert won 3 straight Classics from 2014-’16.
West Coast and Collected were 2nd & 3rd last year.
11 European raiders have finished in the money in
the Classic, including winners Arcangues (1993)
and Raven’s Pass (2008). Most recently, Toast of
New York (2014) was runner-up.
?
Classic Free-For-All

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/1058699193538232320

[Burls]

CHR R 11
:1::2::3::8: $2 EXB = $24
:1::2::3::8: $2 TBX = $48
:1::2::3::8: $2 SBX = $48

[dilanesp]

I am thinking of Victor Espinosa right now.

[GMB@BP]

Down 1.2% with an extra race, with great weather and a booming economy..not great

[GMB@BP]

More info from Crunk

Handle on BC Saturday card down 7.7% (-$8.7M) on same number of races and 13 fewer interests vs last year. Per interest up 1.3% (+$10K). Handle on both Friday & Saturday cards total down 5.3% (-$8.9M) on same number of races and 9 fewer interests. Per interest down 1.8% (-$12K).

[ReplayRandall]

More info from Crunk

Handle on BC Saturday card down 7.7% (-$8.7M) on same number of races and 13 fewer interests vs last year. Per interest up 1.3% (+$10K). Handle on both Friday & Saturday cards total down 5.3% (-$8.9M) on same number of races and 9 fewer interests. Per interest down 1.8% (-$12K).

Not surprising in the least....Overall lackluster fields this year, venue was first time at Del Mar last year....Huge difference.

[bobphilo]

What a performance by Accelerate!!!. Pressed a pace that cooked the other contenders while wide on both turns and still won. He has my vote for HOTY. I don't care if Justify won the TC. They forfeited that award by retiring him early.

[GMB@BP]

They forfeited that award by retiring him early.

I thought I read he got hurt. You should be a reporter.

[bobphilo]

I thought I read he got hurt. You should be a reporter.

Whatever the reason, he never beat or even ever faced open competition for 3YO and UP.

[dilanesp]

I thought I read he got hurt. You should be a reporter.

Well, let's put it this way. If I paid you 60 million dollars to discover an injury in a horse, I am sure you could find one.

[GMB@BP]

Well, let's put it this way. If I paid you 60 million dollars to discover an injury in a horse, I am sure you could find one.

sure, but that is just speculation.

Even if I think winning the triple crown trumps those other wins, American racing revolves around the Triple Crown, without the Triple Crown I am not sure racing even exists.

[dilanesp]

sure, but that is just speculation.

Even if I think winning the triple crown trumps those other wins, American racing revolves around the Triple Crown, without the Triple Crown I am not sure racing even exists.

I think it's a little more than speculation. Closer to "reasonable conclusion from the data".

[bobphilo]

sure, but that is just speculation.

Even if I think winning the triple crown trumps those other wins, American racing revolves around the Triple Crown, without the Triple Crown I am not sure racing even exists.

True, The only time most of the general public even think about racing is the Kentucky Derby or if there is a TC winner. That is not enough to grow or even sustain interest in the sport. One or 3 races a year won't do it The least racing can do is to give fair justice to the best horse or it will remain a 1 day or 5 week a year curiosity.

[tanner12oz]

Just me or did the place look totally empty on tv?

[MONEY]

"Breeders’ Cup Oddity: Man Arrested For Trying To Ride Horse Onto Track At Churchill"

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/breeders-cup-oddity-man-arrested-for-trying-to-ride-horse-onto-track-at-churchill/

[Andy Asaro]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1059201091491885056

[dilanesp]

"Breeders’ Cup Oddity: Man Arrested For Trying To Ride Horse Onto Track At Churchill"

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/breeders-cup-oddity-man-arrested-for-trying-to-ride-horse-onto-track-at-churchill/

I think I bet on him.

[dilanesp]

Just me or did the place look totally empty on tv?

Not just you. That 70,000 announced is almost certainly overstated.

[papillon]

Not just you. That 70,000 announced is almost certainly overstated.

It looked empty to me too, but I thought Del Mar looked empty and everyone told me I was crazy, so...

[dilanesp]

It looked empty to me too, but I thought Del Mar looked empty and everyone told me I was crazy, so...

I didn't. I posted photos of how empty Del Mar was.

At this point, I am not sure I trust BC announced attendance figures at ANY track.

[GMB@BP]

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/1059201091491885056

maybe true, she feels a little distance challenged to me.

[Wiley]

Just me or did the place look totally empty on tv?

I was there, sat in grandstand reserved apron seats at about the eighth pole both days. All of the sections around me were full from maybe the finish line to a little up from me toward the top of the stretch, on both days. On Saturday, things felt a little tighter moving around and getting through people.

Walking around the front area of the grandstand was pretty crowded but manageable to get bets in, the concession lines were very bad to get through though. Of course things were outrageously priced, $12 for a pint can of low quality beer.
Not sure up above and behind from where we sat, but leaving both days was very crowded walking out the front gates after the feature race, Saturday much worse. I had not been to CD since Swale's Derby, sat in the infield then, so I don't have much to compare the experience to, but to me, it was a good sized crowd. Maybe 70,000 might be a bit high too. CD is a huge place.

Every ticket walking in, was electronically scanned, so they should get a good number from that, if reported accurately.
I did have a great time, though I would have liked a little less chalky results in so many of the races. My only decent hit was the double digit winner in the F & M sprint.